Cole Hamels' ever-increasing price tag: start at six years, $138 million
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Cole Hamels' ever-increasing price tag: start at six years, $138 million
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Few cliches inspire eye-rolls like the professional athlete sitting in front of the public and stating that his new bazillion dollar contract "isn't about the money." Of course it is about the money. In professional sports, it is almost always about the money, whether we are talking about player or management or television. But that doesn't mean that a player who contends otherwise is a liar. After a decade-plus of intereacting with professional athletes, I have come to believe that when they say, "It isn't about the money," what they mean is, "It isn't about building my personal wealth and increasing my spending power." Instead, it is about respect and affirmation and ego, which are three entities that help fan the incredible fire that burns inside of these guys. And the measure of a baseball organization's respect for a player is the size of the contract that it offers him. If Cole Hamels reaches free agency and the Dodgers or the Cubs or the Red Sox offer him $175 million over seven years while the Phillies offer him $125 million over five years, the implication is that the Dodgers or Cubs or Red Sox value Hamels more than the Phillies do. And if Hamels accepts, his rationale could be, "Team X wants me more than the Phillies do," instead of "I can buy an extra $50 million worth of stuff if I sign with Team X."
I'm sure that isn't always the case. Sometimes, it comes down to pure material want. But I also think about it from my perspective. I love Philadelphia. I consider it my home. My goal was always to write sports in this city, and now I make a good living doing it. I could live on a lot less money. But if a media outlet in New York or Boston or Chicago or Los Angeles offered me a 50 percent pay raise, and my current employer said, "We'll give you 10 percent," I'd be apartment hunting the next day.
The analogy is difficult to swallow because of the amount of money that an athlete like Hamels already makes. In my situation, a 50 percent pay raise would significantly alter my lifestyle and ability to save money. It is easy for me to think, "Well, Hamels is already rich, how much money does he need?"
But all material life is relative. Think about how my decision would look to a teacher making $40,000? And think about how that teacher's decision would look to somebody who is making $20,000? And think about how all of it would look to somebody trying to raise a kid by working two minimum-wage jobs. The relative nature of personal wealth within a society is one of the reasons why the economic stratification of our society is of such concern to many people who study it. Sure, America's poor are richer than the middle classes in a lot of other societies. Problem is, they don't live in those societies.
But before I derail my 2020 presidential bid with writings that can be used as evidence of socialist beliefs, let's focus on the point: Unless Hamels is one of those rare players who likes being a Phillie so much that he will check his ego at the door, the organization is going to have to pay him close to what he is worth if it wants him to remain.
So what is he worth?
It's a question we've examined several times over the past couple of seasons, and each time we've concluded that, barring injury, his value is only going to increase the longer the Phillies wait to re-sign him. This time, free agency is in plain sight, with an estimated 22 starts remaining before Hamels is no longer under contract to the club. Two months into his walk year, he is averging 7 innings per start with a 2.43 ERA while averaging 9.2 strikeouts, 1.8 walks, and 0.9 home runs per ning innings. He is second in the NL in innings per start, eighth in ERA, seventh in walks/hits allowed per inning (WHIP), fifth in strikeouts-per-nine (K/9), and second in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
My best projection is that Hamels, who will be 29 years old in the first year of his new deal, would be in position to expect at least a six-year, $138 million contract based on his performance and the recent history of the open market.
How do we arrive at that conclusion?
Below are the richest contracts signed by pitchers over the last five years:
- C.C. Sabathia, 7 years/$161 million covering ages 28-34 starting in 2009
- Johan Santana, 6 years/$137.5 million covering ages 29-34 starting in 2009
- Matt Cain, 6 years/$127.5 million covering ages 27-32 starting in 2012
- Cliff Lee, 5 years/$125.0 million covering ages 32-36 starting in 2011
- C.C. Sabathia, 5 years/$122.0 million covering ages 31-35 starting in 2012
Hamels' career numbers compare favorably to those posted by the aforementioned four pitchers at the times they signed their deals. We'll consider only Sabathia's first deal (his second one was signed after he exercised an opt-out clause this offseason).
Below are those numbers:
| Player | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP | IP | G/GS |
| Hamels | 3.34 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.133 | 1231.2 | 191/190 |
| Sabathia | 3.66 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.244 | 1659.1 | 254/254 |
| Santana | 3.22 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.094 | 1308.2 | 251/175 |
| Cain | 3.35 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 1.196 | 1317.1 | 204/203 |
| Lee | 3.85 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.256 | 1409 | 222/218 |
So Hamels' numbers are better across the board than Sabathia's were at the time he signed his contract, with the exception of innings and starts. If you were to make the argument that Hamels is not in Sabathia's class, this is where you would focus. If Hamels makes all of his starts for the rest of the season, he would have 212 starts and 1381 2/3 innings for his career, which is more than a season less than Sabathia. Really, though, that will be irrelevant. In fact, John Boggs could argue that Hamels has a fresher arm because of the lighter workload. Nobody can argue that Hamels hasn't proven he can carry the load of an ace. He has logged at least 208 innings in his last two seasons, at least 193 in each of his last four, at least 180 in each of his last five, and has logged at least 216 twice. And that's not including this season.
What really matters is how deep Hamels has pitched into the starts he has made, and his average is between 6 1/3 and 6 2/3 innings, the same as Sabathia's.
The only other argument that is even partially substantive is the fact that Hamels has spent his entire career in the National League, while Sabathia, Santana and Lee had been in the American League when they signed their deals. Hamels has a 4.19 ERA in 20 starts against American League teams, not including the World Series.
Still, that argument can be countered with a number of similarly unquantifiable points:
1) Hamels has spent his entire career in one of the more extreme home run parks in the majors.
2) Hamels' interleague ERA is inflated by some rough starts in his first couple of seasons as a pro. Since 2008, he has a 3.38 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 1.177 WHIP in 15 interleague starts. Again, that doesn't include the World Series, which in 2008 worked out pretty well for him.
3) Hamels has 13 career postseason starts. Santana and Sabathia both had five. Cain had three. Cliff Lee had 11. And Hamels' career 3.09 postseason ERA is better than Santana or Sabathia's.
All of that is quibbling, though. Fact is, Hamels' career record stacks up equal or better than those of our four comparables at the time they signed their deals.
But we all know that the free market favors recent performance of career performance, so let's take a look at each player's last three seasons heading into their deals.
| Player/Years | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP | IP | G/GS |
| Hamels 2010-12 | 2.85 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.071 | 495.0 | 75/74 |
| Sabathia 2006-08 | 3.03 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.140 | 686.2 | 97/97 |
| Santana 2005-07 | 2.99 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.013 | 684.1 | 100/100 |
| Cain 2009-11 | 2.97 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.115 | 662.2 | 99/99 |
| Lee 2008-10 | 2.98 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.122 | 667.1 | 93/93 |
Hamels has a better ERA and WHIP and better strikeout and walk rates than Sabathia did in the three seasons before he signed his deal. Keep in mind Hamels is only a third of a way through his third season. Right now, he is on pace for 224 innings over 32 starts, which would bring him up to 649 innings over 96 starts. That's an average of 6 2/3 innings per start, same as Cain and Santana, about a half an inning less than Sabathia and Lee.
Again, the only arguments you can make against Hamels are on the extreme periphery of being relevant.
Hamels' 0.79 groundball rate is the same as Sabathia's was when he went to the Yankees, and it is much better than those posted by Santana, Cain and Lee. Sabathia did allow a lower ratio of extra base hits than Hamels has allowed, so there is that.
It doesn't matter how deep you look into the numbers, Hamels belongs in the same class as Santana and Sabathia, who in my opinion are the two most relevant comparables because of their age at the time of their deals as well as their left-handedness. Sabathia is the most comparable because he was actually on the open market, while Santana was still under club control when the Twins shipped him to the Mets, who then signed him to his deal. Cain signed his deal at the beginning of this season, which was to be his last before free agency.
For the Phillies to sign Hamels now, they would have to expect to dole out a contract that is at least equal to the one Cain signed, which would be a six-year deal at $127.5 million guaranteed, which would leave Hamels a free agent again heading into his 34-year-old season.
Once he hits the open market, you would have to expect that at least one team would be willing to match the Sabathia deal, in the sense that they would be willing to give him $23 million per season through his 34-year-old season. That's how we arrive at the six-year, $138 million figure. After that, it is impossible to predict where the market will go.
As we all know, the Phillies are reluctant to give out contracts longer than three years, particularly when it comes to pitchers. But they gave Lee a five-year deal, and Hamels will be three years younger than Lee was.
That's a lot of money for a team that already has $109 million guaranteed to eight players (Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Kyle Kendrick, Laynce Nix). Factor in an arbitration raise from Hunter Pence's current $10.4 million salary and a sure-to-be-exercised $5 million option for Carlos Ruiz, and the total is at least $125 million for 10 players. That leaves them with 15 roster spots to fill, including potential big-money positions like starting pitcher (Hamels), center field (Shane Victorino) and third base (Placido Polanco).
Agree with dblankj, Hamels will end up signing for somewhere above $170 million. The whole "respect" thing isn't just about having your team respect you. It's also about status among your peers. Dodgers will offer him the largest contract ever for a pitcher, plus the chance to perform in a major media center, so how do Cole and Heidi turn that down? "Hollywood Hamels," the nickname is going to fit more than ever.— wmichael- Hey john carey what do you care you're so thrifty you probably don't watch the Phils 'cause you won't pay for cable
— frisch16 - Shane is gone...no way they give this guy multiple years.Dumb player....Hamels gotta get it done. #tradeclifflee— phillyceltic
- Lets see. I can wake up every morning on Malibu Beach or I can wake up in West Chester Pa? Hmmm See Ya Philly. Its been nice but I wanna go home and pitch in Dodger Blue.
Then the Phils need a full court press to get Josh Hamilton who will infuse the fanbase and fill the seats.
— joe smith - Bottom line is this team has a great deal of salary difficulties to sort through and tough decisions will need to be made. The injuries to Howard and Utley don't help as their contracts may be dead money. I don't see how they can't sign Hamels but would expect one of the other big 3 to be traded in order to do so. The days of Halladay, Hamels and Lee are numbered.— JBinPA
- Amaro should be fired for mishandling these negotiations. It made no sense not to lock him up long term in the offseason and let him play on a one year tender. Like he did with Cliff Lee, he will now have to pay at least 30 million more than he would have had he locked him up before the season. Meanwhile, he gave Rollins a 4 year deal when no one else was interest in him.— jdimaggio555
- I think the Phillies were waiting to see how Hamels responded to his offseason surgery. They didn't want to sign him long term without knowing if he was 100% back to form. Can't really fault them for that.
— Sam Crow - All I am saying is look at the body of work..does he deserve Sabathia money? no. Does he even deserve Lee money? probably--if the Dodgers are going to pay him 175 million..which in itself is a ridiculous sum of money--do I think the Phils should match it? Well, I'm just glad I'm not big Rube right now...— Shemp Howard
- This is a very good column, particularly the part relating to contracts, money and ego. All numbers aside, what's most relevant is that Hamels is the only elite Phillie who still, barring injury, has prime years in front of him. Seems to me if they let him get into free agency the numbers will get crazy, so they better pay what it takes to sign him now.— 2dsacker
- He grew up an hour from LA. The Dodgers have new owners, a good team and Money to spend. Hamels can get whatever he wants from them and have to take a beating in the American League.— farley
- Censored yet again......— Mark1npt
I think there is a reason the Phillies haven't resigned Colbert and won't. It will be interesting to see what the Phillies get for the pseudo-ace in a trade that's coming sooner than later. The good news for Colbert is that with the only teams that can pay this kind of money he'll still be a No. 2 or 3 just like he likes it.— TomO- I'm a little confused as to how you're sure that Cole "likes" being a 2 or 3. He's ace quality pitching in a rotation with two other aces. Just becuase his turn in the rotation isn't the first, doesn't mean he's not a #1 starter that 20 teams would love to have. — PHLSG22
- Agree. And one of those 20 teams plays in Philadelphia. Hamels IS our #1, and our ace, and our stopper. Whatever you want to call it and however you want to measure it, this season, that's what he is. There's no "pseudo" in front of any of those. The "reason" the Phils haven't signed him is that they're so hamstrung with high-cost contracts on non-performing players that at some point they're going to be way over the luxury tax cap just to put a team on the field, let alone absorb a $25 million per year hit on his new contract. — wmichael
- @PHLSG22 and wmichael - don't bother responding to TomO. He has some odd and unreasonable prejudice against Cole, probably because of his high pitched voice or because he wishes he had a hot wife like Heidi. TomO likes to infer that "Colbert" is gay and enjoys calling him "fake tough" and other silliness because of TomO's own insecurities and conflicted "man love" issues. — Sam Crow
