Cole Hamels' ever-increasing price tag: start at six years, $138 million
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Cole Hamels' ever-increasing price tag: start at six years, $138 million
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Few cliches inspire eye-rolls like the professional athlete sitting in front of the public and stating that his new bazillion dollar contract "isn't about the money." Of course it is about the money. In professional sports, it is almost always about the money, whether we are talking about player or management or television. But that doesn't mean that a player who contends otherwise is a liar. After a decade-plus of intereacting with professional athletes, I have come to believe that when they say, "It isn't about the money," what they mean is, "It isn't about building my personal wealth and increasing my spending power." Instead, it is about respect and affirmation and ego, which are three entities that help fan the incredible fire that burns inside of these guys. And the measure of a baseball organization's respect for a player is the size of the contract that it offers him. If Cole Hamels reaches free agency and the Dodgers or the Cubs or the Red Sox offer him $175 million over seven years while the Phillies offer him $125 million over five years, the implication is that the Dodgers or Cubs or Red Sox value Hamels more than the Phillies do. And if Hamels accepts, his rationale could be, "Team X wants me more than the Phillies do," instead of "I can buy an extra $50 million worth of stuff if I sign with Team X."
I'm sure that isn't always the case. Sometimes, it comes down to pure material want. But I also think about it from my perspective. I love Philadelphia. I consider it my home. My goal was always to write sports in this city, and now I make a good living doing it. I could live on a lot less money. But if a media outlet in New York or Boston or Chicago or Los Angeles offered me a 50 percent pay raise, and my current employer said, "We'll give you 10 percent," I'd be apartment hunting the next day.
The analogy is difficult to swallow because of the amount of money that an athlete like Hamels already makes. In my situation, a 50 percent pay raise would significantly alter my lifestyle and ability to save money. It is easy for me to think, "Well, Hamels is already rich, how much money does he need?"
But all material life is relative. Think about how my decision would look to a teacher making $40,000? And think about how that teacher's decision would look to somebody who is making $20,000? And think about how all of it would look to somebody trying to raise a kid by working two minimum-wage jobs. The relative nature of personal wealth within a society is one of the reasons why the economic stratification of our society is of such concern to many people who study it. Sure, America's poor are richer than the middle classes in a lot of other societies. Problem is, they don't live in those societies.
But before I derail my 2020 presidential bid with writings that can be used as evidence of socialist beliefs, let's focus on the point: Unless Hamels is one of those rare players who likes being a Phillie so much that he will check his ego at the door, the organization is going to have to pay him close to what he is worth if it wants him to remain.
So what is he worth?
It's a question we've examined several times over the past couple of seasons, and each time we've concluded that, barring injury, his value is only going to increase the longer the Phillies wait to re-sign him. This time, free agency is in plain sight, with an estimated 22 starts remaining before Hamels is no longer under contract to the club. Two months into his walk year, he is averging 7 innings per start with a 2.43 ERA while averaging 9.2 strikeouts, 1.8 walks, and 0.9 home runs per ning innings. He is second in the NL in innings per start, eighth in ERA, seventh in walks/hits allowed per inning (WHIP), fifth in strikeouts-per-nine (K/9), and second in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
My best projection is that Hamels, who will be 29 years old in the first year of his new deal, would be in position to expect at least a six-year, $138 million contract based on his performance and the recent history of the open market.
How do we arrive at that conclusion?
Below are the richest contracts signed by pitchers over the last five years:
- C.C. Sabathia, 7 years/$161 million covering ages 28-34 starting in 2009
- Johan Santana, 6 years/$137.5 million covering ages 29-34 starting in 2009
- Matt Cain, 6 years/$127.5 million covering ages 27-32 starting in 2012
- Cliff Lee, 5 years/$125.0 million covering ages 32-36 starting in 2011
- C.C. Sabathia, 5 years/$122.0 million covering ages 31-35 starting in 2012
Hamels' career numbers compare favorably to those posted by the aforementioned four pitchers at the times they signed their deals. We'll consider only Sabathia's first deal (his second one was signed after he exercised an opt-out clause this offseason).
Below are those numbers:
| Player | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP | IP | G/GS |
| Hamels | 3.34 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.133 | 1231.2 | 191/190 |
| Sabathia | 3.66 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.244 | 1659.1 | 254/254 |
| Santana | 3.22 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.094 | 1308.2 | 251/175 |
| Cain | 3.35 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 1.196 | 1317.1 | 204/203 |
| Lee | 3.85 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.256 | 1409 | 222/218 |
So Hamels' numbers are better across the board than Sabathia's were at the time he signed his contract, with the exception of innings and starts. If you were to make the argument that Hamels is not in Sabathia's class, this is where you would focus. If Hamels makes all of his starts for the rest of the season, he would have 212 starts and 1381 2/3 innings for his career, which is more than a season less than Sabathia. Really, though, that will be irrelevant. In fact, John Boggs could argue that Hamels has a fresher arm because of the lighter workload. Nobody can argue that Hamels hasn't proven he can carry the load of an ace. He has logged at least 208 innings in his last two seasons, at least 193 in each of his last four, at least 180 in each of his last five, and has logged at least 216 twice. And that's not including this season.
What really matters is how deep Hamels has pitched into the starts he has made, and his average is between 6 1/3 and 6 2/3 innings, the same as Sabathia's.
The only other argument that is even partially substantive is the fact that Hamels has spent his entire career in the National League, while Sabathia, Santana and Lee had been in the American League when they signed their deals. Hamels has a 4.19 ERA in 20 starts against American League teams, not including the World Series.
Still, that argument can be countered with a number of similarly unquantifiable points:
1) Hamels has spent his entire career in one of the more extreme home run parks in the majors.
2) Hamels' interleague ERA is inflated by some rough starts in his first couple of seasons as a pro. Since 2008, he has a 3.38 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 1.177 WHIP in 15 interleague starts. Again, that doesn't include the World Series, which in 2008 worked out pretty well for him.
3) Hamels has 13 career postseason starts. Santana and Sabathia both had five. Cain had three. Cliff Lee had 11. And Hamels' career 3.09 postseason ERA is better than Santana or Sabathia's.
All of that is quibbling, though. Fact is, Hamels' career record stacks up equal or better than those of our four comparables at the time they signed their deals.
But we all know that the free market favors recent performance of career performance, so let's take a look at each player's last three seasons heading into their deals.
| Player/Years | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP | IP | G/GS |
| Hamels 2010-12 | 2.85 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.071 | 495.0 | 75/74 |
| Sabathia 2006-08 | 3.03 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.140 | 686.2 | 97/97 |
| Santana 2005-07 | 2.99 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.013 | 684.1 | 100/100 |
| Cain 2009-11 | 2.97 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.115 | 662.2 | 99/99 |
| Lee 2008-10 | 2.98 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.122 | 667.1 | 93/93 |
Hamels has a better ERA and WHIP and better strikeout and walk rates than Sabathia did in the three seasons before he signed his deal. Keep in mind Hamels is only a third of a way through his third season. Right now, he is on pace for 224 innings over 32 starts, which would bring him up to 649 innings over 96 starts. That's an average of 6 2/3 innings per start, same as Cain and Santana, about a half an inning less than Sabathia and Lee.
Again, the only arguments you can make against Hamels are on the extreme periphery of being relevant.
Hamels' 0.79 groundball rate is the same as Sabathia's was when he went to the Yankees, and it is much better than those posted by Santana, Cain and Lee. Sabathia did allow a lower ratio of extra base hits than Hamels has allowed, so there is that.
It doesn't matter how deep you look into the numbers, Hamels belongs in the same class as Santana and Sabathia, who in my opinion are the two most relevant comparables because of their age at the time of their deals as well as their left-handedness. Sabathia is the most comparable because he was actually on the open market, while Santana was still under club control when the Twins shipped him to the Mets, who then signed him to his deal. Cain signed his deal at the beginning of this season, which was to be his last before free agency.
For the Phillies to sign Hamels now, they would have to expect to dole out a contract that is at least equal to the one Cain signed, which would be a six-year deal at $127.5 million guaranteed, which would leave Hamels a free agent again heading into his 34-year-old season.
Once he hits the open market, you would have to expect that at least one team would be willing to match the Sabathia deal, in the sense that they would be willing to give him $23 million per season through his 34-year-old season. That's how we arrive at the six-year, $138 million figure. After that, it is impossible to predict where the market will go.
As we all know, the Phillies are reluctant to give out contracts longer than three years, particularly when it comes to pitchers. But they gave Lee a five-year deal, and Hamels will be three years younger than Lee was.
That's a lot of money for a team that already has $109 million guaranteed to eight players (Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Kyle Kendrick, Laynce Nix). Factor in an arbitration raise from Hunter Pence's current $10.4 million salary and a sure-to-be-exercised $5 million option for Carlos Ruiz, and the total is at least $125 million for 10 players. That leaves them with 15 roster spots to fill, including potential big-money positions like starting pitcher (Hamels), center field (Shane Victorino) and third base (Placido Polanco).
Open up the checkbook and sign Hamels. If it costs you Victorino, Polanco and Pence then so be it (corner OFs are a dime a dozen and the Phils have Brown that should be up here already). Stick Mayberry in CF for the time being and go from there. Yeah, it might hurt financially in 2013 but in 2014 Utley, KK, Nix and potentially Doc (I wouldn't exercise the option unless he bounces back in a BIG way in 2013) come off the board. Besides Nix isn't making a ton of money and could be easily moved and there are so many pitching starved teams out there that someone would most likely be willing to take on KK and his contract. Heck, if Utley comes back and shows that he can drive the ball, maybe an AL team will be willing to trade for him so he can DH because that is what he is probably best suited for at this point (or put him in LF). This all sounds simple and it should be but this is also a front office like Murph said doesn't give out longer than 3 year deals to pitchers often and the reason they gave Lee the 5 as because Montgomery valued what he did for the organization in 09 and because he won a CY Young award.— ESFjellin- Good posts throughout Jellin; good to great article by Murphy above.
Suggest that if the Yankees and Dodgers, both, are out there, and his trajectory is up, as it is, then his value is way up, too. Their bigger ballparks suggest many Cy Youngs over the next few years for a pitcher who keeps the ball in the park and kills worms. The Yanks and the Dodgers will pay handsomely for that.
With the trajectory of this team, I would not be surprised if Hamels tests FA. Why not? Nothing to lose.
If the team isn't close expect a sort of Wise/Carlton-like trade later this year. Why not? Nothing to lose. Unfortunately, it is likely that the Phils would be on the Wise-end of that deal rather than the Carlton-end.
Personally, the Phils should overpay for this guy. Right now. $142M/7 years. Done. Might he take that and not disrupt the life? Who knows. But try.
Your turn MontCo. This isn't up to RAJ.— 24sDad - halladay's 2014 option automatically vests if halladay has 225 IP in 2013, 415 IP in 2012-2013 and he's not on the DL at end of 2013
— barry m goldwater - Brown? What is he going to do? Besides, he's on the DL. What's Mayberry done this year? Everybody wants to get rid of somebody, but never answers with who they would get to replace them. — mike l
- blah blah blah, sign him --
unless they realistically think they can get JOSH HAMILTON— WFChamps - There is a pretty cool article at crashburnalley.com which shows Amaro's greatest hits as a GM. The writer says that he valued Ryan Howard over Hamels (truth) and with his love affair in signing older vets to long term deals, don't look at the Phils signing Hamilton (I wouldn't sign him, not worth the potential trouble) but look for them to sign someone like Carlos Lee to a 3 year deal. — ESFjellin
- the offseason was the time to have signed hamels.. it should have been amaro's top priority in the offseason... instead, amaro focussed on all sorts of gm asshattery that added zero value to the club.. now it is too late to reel in hamels - he's like a prisoner getting close to the end of serving a long sentence. he doesnt want to come back here. he wants to go someplace where a competent front office will give the team a chance to win a world series. hamels will be traded to an american league team at the deadline for prospects. bank on it. — zwarte piet
- I love Shane, but if it came down to the choice between signing Cole and signing Shane, I'd pick Cole 100 times out of a 100. Hell, teach Utley to play center field.— thefonz37
- Does anyone know whether Utley would be able to play left field or first base in his current physical condition. If so, why isn't he playing now? BTW great article as always.— porcamiseria34
- He could def. play 1st base and should be given an opportunity to try LF as well. Playing the OF is a little bit easier on the body as there is less of the herky-jerky motion that comes with playing the infield. There are some articles out there where Lance Berkman said that playing in the OF was easier on his body and it was playing 1st base that he messed up his knee. — ESFjellin
- Gotta take 2009 into account. He got lazy after the WS win and wasted a year. What is he gonna do after he gets a fat contract?— P Even
- Seriously? Take 2009 into account? When Hamels peripherals were better than his results by a wide margin? He didn't do himself any favors, no, but he also was a benefactor of some extreme bad luck on balls in play. I wonder if the Phillies took Cliff Lee's 2007 into account when he was so bad he was left off the playoff roster at age 28. My guess is no — PHLSG22
- Carlton lost 20 games in 1973 after winning 27 in 1972. Then won 3 more Cy Young Awards. — mwcnabb
- Hamilton in the NL would be MVP with 40+ homers, if healthy of course. Place him in this lineup and it would be like 2008.
Carlos Lee, I doubt it.
I do prefer Michael Bourn to leadoff and replace Vic if they have the money.— WFChamps - all of those guys with the exception of matt cain have won cy youngs..does that come into play?
— Shemp Howard
