Amaro vs. Alderson, Durbin vs. Lyon
The Mets' signing of Brandon Lyon will provide a reference point for judging the success of the Phillies' deal with Chad Durbin
Amaro vs. Alderson, Durbin vs. Lyon
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
A baseball roster is basically a series of cost-benefit analyses, with the general manager deciding to invest a specific amount of money into Player X instead of Player Y. We often focus on the big decisions (paying Ryan Howard 5 years and $125 million now instead of waiting to spend that money later on somebody else). But pennants are often won and lost by the smallest of these allocations.
Which brings us to Chad Durbin and Brandon Lyon.
Late in the pre-2009 offseason, the Phillies agreed to a one-year, $2.5 million contract with reliever Chan Ho Park. That same year, the Astros signed veteran reliever Doug Brocail to a one-year, $2.75 million deal. Park ended up playing a key role in the Phillies' second straight World Series berth. After a lackluster tryout as a starter, the right-hander moved into the bullpen, where he helped offset the epic struggles of Brad Lidge, posting a 2.57 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 16 walks in 49 innings. Brocail, meanwhile, appeared in just 20 games, allowing four home runs and 13 walks while striking out 9 in 17 2/3 innings.
And then there was last year. The Phillies signed right-hander Chad Qualls to a one-year, $1.15 million contract, hoping the former closer could rediscover the stuff that had made him a dependable setup man once upon a time. The Rays paid a little bit more -- $2 million -- to sign another reclamation project in veteran right-hander Fernando Rodney. Qualls opened up the season as the Phillies primary setup man but quickly proved ill-equipped to handle that role, posting a 4.60 ERA while allowing 7 home runs in 31 1/3 innings before he was designated for assignment. Rodney, on the other hand, was lights out for the Rays, saving 48 games with a 0.60 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 0.2 HR/9 in 74 2/3 innings. Clearly, he was wroth the extra 0.85 million that the Rays spent.
This year, the Phillies low-risk reliever acquisition is Durbin, who was a member of the team during the glory years of 2008-10. Durbin signed for one year and $1.10 million, a contract similar to those signed by veterans like Jose Veras (one-year, $1.85 million with the Astros), Jason Frasor (one-year, $1.5 million with the Rangers), and, now, right-hander Lyon, who inked a deal with the Mets reportedly worth in the neighborhood of $750,000 guaranteed with incentives that could push the total value to around $2.4 million.
I'm very interested to see how the Durbin and Lyon signings compare by the end of the season. At first, I was surprised that Lyon had taken this long to sign, and I was even more surprised when I saw his low guaranteed salary. After all, this is a guy who pitched 61 innings last season with a 3.10 ERA and 134 ERA+, 9.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9. He and Durbin are similar pitchers (Durbin also pitched in 61 pinnings with a 3.10 ERA), except Durbin struck out fewer batters last season (7.2 K/9), walked more (4.1 BB/9) and allowed more home runs (1.3 HR/9).
But I get the sense that scouts who watched Lyon down the stretch last season saw ample reason for concern. In his final 14 appearances of the year, he struck out just 4 while walking 7 and allowing 10 hits in 9 2/3 innings. In his last appearance of the season, his velocity sat around 88 miles per hour, according to pitch fX. Perhaps more concerning was his reluctance to use his cutter, a pitch that he had relied heavily on over the previous two seasons (after previously using a slider as his top secondary pitch). According to my count, he threw just 3 cutters in 38 pitches over his final four outings of the season.
The question: was Brandon Lyon a pitcher exhibiting signs of a physical breakdown, or was he a veteran in the process of reinventing himself in the later stages of his career? The Mets figured it was worth $750,000 to find out. The Phillies decided investing $1.1 million in Durbin was the safer play. I have no opinion on the matter. But I do know that this is one of those Apple A or Apple B choices that can end up playing a big role in a pennant race, for better or for worse.
The Phillies have seen both sides of it. This time around, all that's left is the wait and see.
same imbecilic reponses from morons like packleader.. here's prior dialogue: "Name ONE star that has been traded away by Amaro."...D'arnaud, Singleton, Cosart, May, Gose, Villar, Santana, etc (yes, some will be All-Stars, some quality major league players) and others not...
"Santana was 19 (turned 20 in August) when he destroyed High A ball...Singleton had 4 hits in the "Futures Game"...Villar's got power and speed for a SS, Gose is lightning on the paths, and Cosart's polished, albeit fragile..There's NO DENYING the quality of prospects (not even including D'Arnaud)that have gone out of the system....You'll be reading MANY of these names in the coming years....Tommy Joseph is a good prospect, not even CLOSE to a projected All-Star or HOFer...The disparity of talen that went away for Pence, versus what came back a year later is laughable.
— bearsfriend"— warbiscuit- @ThePackLeader: yeah and don't forget that in 1964 Dick Bertell hit .238 for the Chicago Cubs (that's as releavant and responsive as your brainless rambling)— warbiscuit
- Right, because comparing prospects lost 3-4 years ago (non of which have panned-out, by the way!) to a guy from 1964 is an exercise in common sense. — The Pack Leader
- Durbin is not cooked by the way. He is in peak physical condition going into spring training. His attitude is great. He is excited about the team. He will have a stellar season, like in 2008. If you do not remember I am the insider! I can tell you he looks better than he has in a long time. He has reason to be excited. He has two boys and a third baby due later this year. He has the drive to have the year. Once you get past the I have to show them how great I am, or the I will be the best, it comes down to experience, attitude and desire to do well for your family. He is all about his family and providing. What way to do it better than to come in and have a great season. He loves the Phillies! He has the experience in the ballpark, the experience on the mound, the variety of pitches and as I mentioned is in great shape. So to all you nay sayers, be ready! Durbin is far from cooked.— jdurb56
- What are the winning powerball numbers since you guys can unequivicolly predict the future of these prospects. Drabek was going to be a lights out stud and he had arm surgery last year. Happ, Donald, Carrasco (arm injury, Gose was traded by the Astros,and K's a ton (not a good habit for a baserunner to not be able to make contact and get on.)I mean really get a grip you guys are boring everybody to death.— rhcjr2
- The Phillies need new leadership. Bringing veterans and older players to this aging team will lead to more breakdowns. The young guys need to play. Of course the young outfielders are not really young because they are not given a chance. This team is old. By July it will be out of wildcard race with injuries and a GM willing to trade the limited resources for a longshot of playoffs. Does anyone really think Kendrick and Lannan are legit starters? Tons of relievers are available. Stutes is back unless he doesn't recover from injury. Yankees of the NL, old and irrelevant.— wmontanez27
- The Phillies need new leadership. Bringing veterans and older players to this aging team will lead to more breakdowns. The young guys need to play. Of course the young outfielders are not really young because they are not given a chance. This team is old. By July it will be out of wildcard race with injuries and a GM willing to trade the limited resources for a longshot of playoffs. Does anyone really think Kendrick and Lannan are legit starters? Tons of relievers are available. Stutes is back unless he doesn't recover from injury. Yankees of the NL, old and irrelevant.— wmontanez27
- Has Murphy ever written an article or blog post that doesn't discuss the "cost-benefit analyses" of "Player X" vs. "Player Y"? Dude gets more boring by the week. He basically just posted a blog about the fact that some free agent relievers perform well, while others disappoint. Is that news?
After 4 years on the beat, it might be time to get a source or two within baseball and start reporting on things we don't know (as opposed to reporting on things we already know but in way that demonstrates how much smarter he is than everyone else.)— itsRyan - Thanks for filling us in, Mrs. Durbin......— Mark1npt
- If I can put this is some type of context, Amaro is not your "cream of the crop" type of guy. He's more your vegan, low fat, less calorie type of GM. I think he's proven that with his last two off season acquisitions.— ghost of callison
