Are Phils RISP struggles overblown?
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Are Phils RISP struggles overblown?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Lot of chatter today about Runners In Scoring Position, specifically about the Phillies' inability to hit in such situations over the past week. Since going 7-for-11 with RISP in a 12-5 win over the Cubs on Aug. 12, they are 7-for-29 (.241). While not good, it also isn't too far off their season average (.257).
For fans, it can be frustrating to watch such a prolific offense struggle so mightily in such key situations. But I'm here to tell you to deal with it.
Why?
Because it is the tradeoff you make when you come to the ballpark to see a team capable of exploding the way the team exploded against Arizona righty Dan Haren tonight. The Phillies scored their first six runs on home runs: a two-run shot by Chase utley in the third, a three-run shot by Ryan Howard in the fifth, and a solo shot by Jayson Werth in the fifth. Of those six runs, three were scored with runners in scoring position.
In short, this team is not built to hit with runners in scoring position. It is built to score runs in bunches, primarily via the home run. I did some number-crunching to support this viewpoint:
Heading into last night, the Phillies were tied for 10th in the National League with a .257 average with runners in scoring position. But they were first in home runs. The numbers suggest that is not a coincidence:
1) While the Phillies are tied for 10th in batting average with RISP, they are also fourth in the National League in runs scored with runners out of scoring position (27.2 percent of their runs).
2) Of the top five home-run-hitting teams in the National League, none rank in the top five in hitting with runners in scoring position. The Rockies are sixth (.267), the Brewers are 12th (.255), the Diamondbacks are 16th (.233), and the Cubs are 13th (.241).
Simply put, the Phillies have built an unconventional line-up that scores runs in unconventional ways. They are the only team in the league that has four players with more than 20 home runs. But there is a trade off. Take away one of those home run hitters and replace him with a guy who hits .300 and consistently hits with RISP, and their average with runners in scoring position would rise. But that's not the way the Phillies have chosen to do things. And while it can be mind-boggling to watch at times, it also leads to nights like Wednesday night.
Last year in the World Series, the Phillies had one hit in their first 28 at-bats with runners in scoring position. And they won the title in five games.
Is it prudent to rely on the long ball and pitching, which is the strategy the Phillies have taken? Maybe not according to Baseball Management 101. But they aren't a handbook team, which is why it will be very interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out.
Weren't we worried about the same thing last year? I agree completely...we are a power team, so we won't get as many hits to drive in runs, but we make up for that in HR power.— MFPhils- We need a consistent small ball hitter on the bench...We don't need more HR power on the bench...to many whiffs. That would complete our O.— MFPhils
- Hey Murphy, I have been watching this for some time with this team over the past couple of years and want to know what you think... Runs scored per hit. The Phils seem to put a lot of lines where the runs and hits are almost the same, more so than most teams I watch. Does anyone ever keep track of this? To me, this would show an efficient offense -- albeit, one that hits a lot of home runs.— Master Dreamz
- Tonight: Bases loaded, no outs, first inning. Strikeout, foul out, ground out. The other night, Victorino on third, no outs. Same thing. Yeah, the Phils can score in bunches with the long ball, but for once I'd like to see them make use of the guys who get on base and get them in. They've been shut out and 1-runned several times this season because too many times they go for the fences instead of moving the runners. What happens if they have to face the Giants in the playoffs? They didn't look too good a couple of weeks ago against the SF pitching.— mike l
- Murph- real good post. Thanks for not just running with the annoying easy story about RISP concerns because you are absolutely right that the Phillies have chosen a strategy that works even though it is frustrating to watch when it doesn't work. However, it is clearly effective as I look over at my world champs banner here...— stoner156
- When one considers that the team plays at least half of their games in places like Citizens Bank Park, that's not a bad way to do things. unorthodox, like Murph says, but hey, it works. When you get pitching like Lee's, that only helps.— davesju93
- Mike, we got swept by the fish too...are bats slump sometimes. It happens. I think we'll be ok— MFPhils
- They are still maddening to watch sometimes. And posters, please, Please, PLEASE stop using "we". You don't play. You sound like cub fans.— joe$
Comment removed.- good post - this does make me feel better— betsy72
- Great post. (Hey, most of them are. It's only the commenters using this forum to work through their own deep-seated angers which sometimes make this site a downer.) I've long come to terms with the Phillies' offense -- Live by the long ball, die by the long ball. However, the "secret" reason the Phillies won the World Series last year was their major league-best post-season ERA. Pitching, pitching, pitching! And against Tampa, we had a 2.86 ERA and our WHIP was under 1.00! This year's staff doesn't feel like it will replicate that feat (come on, Brad! come on, Cole!), but there's enough strong pitching right now as well as on the way to hold a lot of hope. For without the pitching, the long ball is just not gonna cut it in the playoffs. Most home runs are off mistakes, and in the playoffs, you're basically facing the top 3 starters from the 2 or 3 best teams in baseball, as well as the best bullpens. They make far, far fewer mistakes than the league as a whole, so that's why hitting with runners in scoring position and grinding out runs (including the need for speed that Billy Beane doesn't comprehend) is crucial to being a championship team. Unless, of course, your pitching dominates and you get just enough slugging to prevail.— PhilaLogic
- The batting average with RISP does not tell the whole story. 7 for 29 would be easier to swallow if more of those 22 outs were productive. I'm more concerned about the inability to hit RBI sac flies or grounders than about the inability to get hits. But I agree the premise of your article is valid.— Nutburgers
- I really can't say that this post makes any sense. Are you suggesting that Batting with RISP is somehow a different skillset than batting with no men on base? Does that make any sense? They have a team BA of .258 and a BA RISP of .257, so is it really newsworthy? More to the point their OBP with men in RISP would be more relevant. A possibly more salient point, if we are to somehow believe that BA RISP is a relevant stat, is that your OBP men(Utley Victorino Werth) bat in front of less productive hitters (Howard Feliz Ruiz). Oh well.— Either/Or
- problem is..no homers, no runs.— scootch
- I wonder what it would be like if say, Bako, Stairs, and Brun. were replaced by others down the line? Perhaps then it would not be hard to give the starters some rest. I keep wondering if Dobbs has been shuffled off . He could replace Pedro once in awhile when a rightie goes. He might raise their RISP. And BAKO , Stairs, and Brun. are just whiffs. I know, picky, but surely they could do better there.— KGKoons
- Murph mentioned if the Phils had a guy consistently hitting .300 with men in RISP the Phils O would look a lot different. Didn't they have that with Raul until he got hurt? Yes, he would smack a ball out frequently but he was also almost guarnteed a hit at each at bat when someone was on base. He would line a ball between the shortstop and second baseman usually deep in a count. Can you imagine what the O would look like right now if Raul could find his swing again? I have no concerns about the Phils offense. Its like rooting for a basketball team that lives and dies by the 3; some nights they fall others nothing but rim. This team is dangerous right now with its pitching and the big bats heating up but imagine what it will be like when Ibanez finds his stroke and protects Werth and Howard! On a different note, does anyone else get the feeling we have a good chance of seeing a no-no from Lee sometime this season? He's been fantastic.— BadgerVMD
- all this fuss about the best offense in the league? runs are runs. on the other hand, our closer is having perhaps the worst season in the history of closers, but nary a word of concern... y'all must dig pyromania.— philchik
- NINETEEN games OVER .500 and here you people are complaining about the Phils not hitting very well with RISP. Get over it!! All I see here are complaints. If it if it isn't Moyer then it's Myers or Lidge. You all have to complain about something or you're not happy.— SallyAnn
- The Phillies are 5th in the majors in runs scored, and 6th in OPS, the statistic that has been the most strongly correlated with run production. RISP is matter of coincidence, we're in 1st place for a reason.— Crash Davis
- Good column. Look at the overall results. Since the all-star break the Phillies have now won 8 of 10 series and 20 of 31 games. That's playing at a .650 clip. There's obviously more to this game than RISP.— defg0003
- +19 = somethings OK so far.— mick314
- Comment removed.
- To get this many replies, your column is either very good, or very controversial. To say " The team wasn't built to hit with runners in scoring position"is one of the dumbest comments I've ever heard. It's like giving a pass for failure. That's supposed to make us feel better ??— phineas
- Phillies are 3rd in MLB in R/G -- behind 2 AL DH teams and far ahead of the closest NL team (Colorado). With that offense, BA RISP is quibbling over details. Baseball Mgmt 101 was written by Earl Weaver, king of pitching + 3-run HR.— Your Majesty
- murph...why are you not on DNL lately?— usmc92
- Is it really a strategy to stock the lineup with guys that hit 30 HR per season? Isn't that a strategy that every team would follow if they could get the players? The Phils ability to hit homeruns does not mean they don't need to improve in terms of making good contact with RISP. Situational hitting is key against the good pitching that playoff teams are likely to have. It's interesting that Victorino may have been their best offensive player in the playoffs - he is the one guy in their lineup that his more of a contact hitter.— unclecharlie
- Comment removed.
People are WAY to focused on the RISP stat for this team. I have a buddy who is obsessed with small ball. He screams for guys to steal every time they're on base and hates RISP avgs. on this team- but think it through guys- each stat doesn not happen in a vacuum, they are in conjunction with all others. Since we have bombers through the meat of the order- runners to run as much for fear of taking the bat out of the bombers' hands. Similarly, playing in CBP, rarely is it prudent to work for that single run in the 3rd or 4th inning by asking a power hitter to give himself up to advance a runner. You want him to splash the petunias and that takes hacks. Small ball is great to watch- but not the only way to win.- People are WAY to focused on the RISP stat for this team. I have a buddy who is obsessed with small ball. He screams for guys to steal every time they're on base and hates RISP avgs. on this team- but think it through guys- each stat doesn not happen in a vacuum, they are in conjunction with all others. Since we have bombers through the meat of the order- runners to run as much for fear of taking the bat out of the bombers' hands. Similarly, playing in CBP, rarely is it prudent to work for that single run in the 3rd or 4th inning by asking a power hitter to give himself up to advance a runner. You want him to splash the petunias and that takes hacks. Small ball is great to watch- but not the only way to win.
- unclecharlie- Funny thing- that "good pitching in the playoffs" point you make- Look throughout baseball and you'll find something about top pitching. They have a tendancy to have very low WHIPs but many of the top guys give up the long ball when they make the rare mistake. Low WHIP means less guys on- less chances to benefit from small ball. Home Runs as a form of offense can win the WS.
- Good pitching will stop a good offense, look at the Cardinals against the Dodgers. I would trade a 20 homer for a consistent RISP hitter.— PHILLY76
- The Phillies offense is what it is...built for the home park. SD, Oakland, Seattle etc...could not use this blueprint for their teams. So as long as CBP is functional you'll see power hitter after power hitter playing here. It's only going to get better as Mayberry, Taylor and whatever big bats are drafted make their way to the roster.— pizano13
- I think it is a non issue. Look at their record and that says it all.— pizzmoe
- Dave Murphy -- I know you won't touch this subject so I'll do it. AM I MISTAKEN IN MY BELIEF THAT WITH EACH AT BAT THE MANAGER IS GIVING THE SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE HITTER IS TO DO? How many times are we going to hear Charlie say we need to play small ball and then ignore that idea completely, more than once, during a game. It's not the fact that we can't move runners in the conventional sense its that we won't.— Wally 24
