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Sunday, November 1, 2009
A ray of hope. . .from Las Vegas

Admit it. Your gut says the Yankees should be overwhelming favorites tonight.

But Las Vegas doesn't necessarily agree. The most recent money line has the Yankees at -170 -- a strong favorite, no doubt, but not as strong as I would have thought. In Game 1, Sabathia was a larger favorite to beat Cliff Lee (-173) than he is in Game 4 to beat Blanton. What does this mean? Maybe nothing. But it does suggest that Vegas is a tad more optimistic about the Phillies' chances than many of the experts. And Vegas tends to be a more accurate barometer than public sentiment.

Just some food for thought.


 

Posted by David Murphy @ 1:25 PM  Permalink | 12 comments
12
Comments   
Posted 02:43 PM, 11/01/2009
EaglesWest
Just beat this guy, and shut everyone - especially these national nitwits -- the heck up. You'd think we're already packing up the lockers the way everyone has turned on this team in two days. We got the split we wanted in NY, lost one game last night, and are back on the offensive with our best guy in Game 5 if we can rise to the occasion and attack this guy tonight. CC isn't exactly a picture of steely makeup himself, especially against the Phils. Come on, fans - don't let that old, familiar dread creep in and have you sitting and waiting for the other shoe to drop. Bring it, tonight - the boys need you.
Posted 03:32 PM, 11/01/2009
PhilaLogic
Tough one tonight. Very tough matchup. But the biggest thing I'm counting on is that these Phillies do NOT have the same mental makeup as so many of their fretful fans. They are one of the most willful, relentless Philadelphia teams ever (Mike Keenan's Flyers also come to mind). Yes, the Yankees have more talent; a spare $80 million will do that. But if any group of guys can move that rubber tree plant, it's these Phillies.
Posted 03:33 PM, 11/01/2009
Manor2009
Wow, we're really grasping for straws now. Let's just play and see if the Phightins come out fighting tonight. The series will be written tonight.
Posted 03:41 PM, 11/01/2009
Nickawampus Leroy
This idiot writer obviously has never bet a baseball game in his sad, sorry life.Any idea what the winning % is for pitchers on 3 days rest? Get real.
Posted 03:52 PM, 11/01/2009
Nickawampus Leroy
This boob has about as much a clue as the buffoon managing the Phillies. Bombers are an 8 1/2-5 ROAD favorite, in a championship game, on a pitcher going with 3 days rest. A word of advice Cholly manuel acolytes: No one ever got rich betting against the Yankees or Notre Dame.
Posted 03:52 PM, 11/01/2009
Nickawampus Leroy
This boob has about as much a clue as the buffoon managing the Phillies. Bombers are an 8 1/2-5 ROAD favorite, in a championship game, on a pitcher going with 3 days rest. A word of advice Cholly manuel acolytes: No one ever got rich betting against the Yankees or Notre Dame.
Posted 04:09 PM, 11/01/2009
jtj06
I was surprised that the Phillies didn't get more off CC the first time. In a 7 game series with 3 NY starting pitchers I expect the Phillies to win 2 against CC and 1 against the other guys. The only Phillie starter that I am worried about is Hamels, the rest of the guys can keep us in games-- like Pettitte did last night. You are going to give up some runs in a few games, but if you can limit it to 4 or less like he did, you should be able to win some of those games.
Posted 04:20 PM, 11/01/2009
David_Murphy
Someone tell Nickawampus that the winning percentage of pitchers named C.C. Sabathia on three days rest is .667
Posted 04:48 PM, 11/01/2009
Nickawampus Leroy
Vegas finally realized the Phillies have "LIGHTS OUT LIDGE, BABY" The guy who made a buffoon, Cholly Manuel, into a winner for the first time in his sorry baseball life. Take heart, Little Leaguers. Sitting on the bench, pulling the splinters out of your aXX, sometimes pays off. Like what happened to the Boob.
Posted 05:05 PM, 11/01/2009
Nickawampus Leroy
Baseball Reference has put together a comprehensive list of all results since 1995 with pitchers going on three days of rest. The winning percentage is .419 and, keep in mind, only winning pitchers would be asked to pitch on 3 days rest.
Posted 08:15 PM, 11/01/2009
JimG
Betting odds have a certain factor built in for homefield advantage. That's why the odds are different.
Posted 02:46 AM, 11/02/2009
27thHeaven
Not food for thought. Just an attempt to convince yourself that your frillies are still in it. But it's true, you're done.
About David Murphy
David Murphy joined the Daily News as its Phillies beat writer in February of 2008. Born in Upper Merion and raised in the Poconos, he attended college at La Salle University before taking jobs with the Myrtle Beach (S.C.) Sun-News and the St. Petersburg ( Fla. ) Times.

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