A closer look at Placido Polanco's offense
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A closer look at Placido Polanco's offense
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
A storm system hovering over Florida has prompted the cancellation of both of the Phillies' split-squad games today. They will be back on the field tomorrow at Bright House Field, weather permitting.
Placido Polanco has a career .761 OPS, ranking him in the neighborhood of immortals like Todd Hundley, Shea Hillenbrand, and Rico Brogna (No. 675 on the career OPS list, but No. 1 in your hearts).
Now, keep in mind that hot-ticket free agent third baseman Chone Figgins, who signed a four-year, $36 million deal with the Angels, has a career OPS of .751. But you can certainly understand why plenty of eyebrows in the national punditry shot skyward when the Phillies decided to give Polanco $18 million guaranteed over three years to switch to a position he hadn't played since 2005.
I was surprised with the length of the deal, considering the amount of money the Phillies have locked up over the next three years. But I'm just a hack with a keyboard and a distribution system, so don't take it from me: Polanco himself told the Tigers' web site yesterday that he was unsure of his own market and probably would have accepted arbitration had the Tigers offered it, and in the same article Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski came across as less-than-thrilled with the way things turned out.
"He wanted a multi-year deal, from us or from somebody else," Dombrowski told reporters last month, according to the web site. "I do not know if he'd have gotten a multi-year deal if we had offered him arbitration. I think he would have now that I know what the Phillies gave him, but I did not know that at the time."
Only time will tell if the Phillies were wise to tack on that third year. But the fact that Polanco is a good defender who can play multiple positions would seem to serve as something of an insurance policy against a decline in performance. As Amaro said after Polanco's introductory press conference in December, $6 million would make for an expensive utility player. But even in a worse-case scenario, Polanco is unlikely to represent dead money by the time the contract ends.
And, in the short term, the steady Polanco would seem to be a good fit for a Phillies offense that can be equal parts freakish, frenetic and frustrating. True, he hardly ever walks. And he sees fewer pitcher per plate appearance than any Phillie on the roster. But players who hit .290 with a .360 OBP generally make more than $6 million per year.
1) Polanco's price tag versus Adrian Beltre's price tag
The one-year deal that Adrian Beltre signed with the Red Sox has been offered up as proof that the Phillies overpaid for Polanco. I don't necessarily agree with that line of thinking. First, even the contract Beltre signed with the Red Sox was probably out of the Phillies' price range.
Polanco will earn $5.5 million this million, which is at least $2.5 million less, and up to $4.5 million less than the Red Sox will pay Beltre. That's Danys Baez. Or Ross Gload and Brian Schneider. Or, maybe it's the veteran reliever they might trade for at the deadline. Or Pedro Martinez down the stretch. Or part of Jarrod Washburn's salary should the rotation suffer an injury this spring.
Fact is, if you are an organization operating with a hard cap on payroll spending, sometimes you have to sacrifice potential for cost certainty. I'm told that the Phillies viewed Beltre's initial salary demands as well beyond their means, which meant looking elsewhere. The Red Sox could afford to be patient, thanks to their bigger budget and their in-house options at third base.
The Phillies knew they had to look to free agency for a third baseman (once they declined Feliz's option). They knew they would need to do so again next year, with even less payroll flexibility. As for the third year? Well, time will tell.
2) Polanco's situational hitting
In addition to dollars, the Phillies think Polanco makes a lot of sense for their line-up. We looked at this conclusion back in mid-November, when we broke down the hitting "ability" of the Phillies' six potential free agent targets at third base. In the interest of space, you can check out some of that legwork here.
The overall point is that while Beltre's right-handed power and good defense would have fit right in with this line-up, perhaps even allowing Charlie Manuel to break up all of his lefties, Polanco's contact-hitting ability is an intriguing dimension that the Phillies have lacked over the past couple years.
We broke down Polanco's various contact rates in today's story in the Daily News. The guy put more balls in play than any other hitter in the American League. But he is also known as a good "situational hitter," a guy who moves runners even when making outs, a guy who adapts his strategy to each at-bat.
It's tough to quantify this ability, but the numbers that do exist support the conventional wisdom.
Productive outs: A "productive out" is classified as any out that: A) Advances a baserunner with the first out of an inning (With a man on first and no out, Batter X grounds out to third, allowing the runner to move to second) or B) Scores a baserunner. In his career, Polanco has converted 40 percent of his P.O. opportunities. The MLB average is 32 percent, according to Baseball-Reference.com
Man on third, less than 2 out: It's a golden scoring opportunity, but the Phillies converted on only 48 percent of their opportunities last season (the NL average was 50 percent). In his career, Polanco has scored a runner on 61 percent of his opportunities.
Runner on second with no out: Move a runner in this situation, and you set your team up with a runner on third and less than two out. Polanco has moved a runner in 55 percent of these situations in his career, compared with an MLB average of 43 percent.
Polanco has also converted 75 percent of his sacrifice bunt attempts, which is slightly above average, though he has grounded into double plays on 14 percent of his opportunities, which is slightly below average.
3) Polanco vs. Victorino
Here is where things get interesting. The Phillies' initial plan is to hit Polanco at No. 2 most of the time. This spot was occupied by Shane Victorino last year. Manuel has said he thinks Victorino is better suited to hit somewhere where he doesn't have to "think" as much, where he can swing a little more freely. The conventional wisdom is that this will be the No. 7 spot, which Feliz inhabited last season. But I wouldn't be surprised to get a decent amount of playing time in the six-hole, with Raul Ibanez batting behind him.
Regardless, the main point is that the Phillies view Polanco as a No. 2 hitter, someone who can move Carlos Ruiz or Jimmy Rollins into scoring position with two out, or send Rollins from first to third, or perform any of the other tasks that his steady bat equips him for.
Again, the numbers support this thesis. Here is how Polanco and Victorino stack up, both last season, and over the last four years:
Productive outs converted
Victorino: 31 percent (2009), 31 percent (2006-09)
Polanco: 32, 35
Moving runner to 3rd w/ lt 2 out
Victorino: 48 percent, 52 percent
Polanco: 54, 53
Scoring runner from 3rd w/ lt 2 out
Victorino: 56 percent, 52 percent
Polanco: 58, 61
Not a huge disparity. But the numbers in these limited categories at least indicate a difference in situational hitting ability.
4) Rollins and Ruiz
Maybe this is actually the point where things get really interesting. Because in order to take advantage of somebody's situational hitting ability, you must first place him in situations. Which, to me, is why Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz are the two most pivotal hitters in the Phillies line-up this season. Note that I did not use the word "important." The Phillies showed last season that they can get by with a horrible year out of Rollins and a mediocre year out of Ruiz. And they showed in 2008 that they can get by with a horrible year out of Ruiz and a mediocre year out of Rollins. And if Cole Hamels pitches like he did in 2008 and J.A. Happ pitches like he did in 2009 and Joe Blanton pitches like he did for most of last year and Roy Halladay pitches like he has for most of this decade, the Phillies might be able to get by with a horrible year out of everybody.
But if Ruiz and Rollins can get on base consistently, this Phillies offense could finally reach the potential that many envisioned for them after 2007.
Of course, Rollins is the more important figure here. Even if he returns only to the form he showed in 2008, the Phillies should be fine with him as a leadoff hitter. For as "good" a year as Shane Victorino had last year, and as "mediocre" a year as Rollins had in 2008, Rollins' .349 on base percentage in 2008 was just .009 less than the .358 Victorino posted last season. Rollins' baserunning ability and Victorino's higher slugging percentage probably cancel out the negigible gain in OBP were Victorino to move into the leadoff spot.
But if Rollins struggles in 2010 like he did in 2009, or even in some of his pre-MVP years, the Phillies will at least have some options. Last year, Manuel responded to suggestions of moving Rollins down in the order with a contemptuous "Who do you want to lead off?" While Victorino was the obvious answer, Manuel had a point when it came to the composition of the entire order. Essentially, he couldn't hit Pedro Feliz anywhere other than seventh. Now, however, he has Polanco, who can pretty much hit anywhere.
This line-up:
- Shane Victorino
- Placido Polanco
- Chase Utley
- Ryan Howard
- Jayson Werth
- Raul Ibanez
- Jimmy Rollins
- Carlos Ruiz
- Pitcher
Looks a lot better than this line-up:
- Shane Victorino
- Chase Utley
- Jayson Werth
- Ryan Howard
- Raul Ibanez
- Pedro Feliz
- Jimmy Rollins
- Carlos Ruiz
- Pitcher
Of course, these are all what-ifs. The point is, Polanco gives the Phillies some of the versatility and consistency that they have been lacking over the past couple years.
5) No. 2
Now, here's a question: will hitting No. 2 in the Phillies' line-up affect Polanco? For whatever reason, hitting second was a statistical boon for the four players who logged at least 20 plate appearances there last season. In fact, as good as Victorino was, hitting .307 with a .370 on base percentage, 90 runs scored and 50 RBI, the three other players who hit there were even better.
Now, this is an admittedly small sample size, so it's tough to draw any conclusions. But it is still interesting to point out:
- Chase Utley: 82 PA, .309 BA/.415/.529, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 10 RS
- Jayson Werth: 44 PA, .333/.500/.636, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 7 RS
- Ben Francisco: 23 PA, .381/.391/.667, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 RS
- Shane Victorino: 572 PA, .307/.370/.467, 9 HR, 50 RBI, 90 RS
6) Defense
We began this blog post under the premise that Polanco's transition to third base is a question mark that can only be answered through time. Manuel and Amaro both say they think Polanco will have little trouble with the transition. But it is easy to overlook how well Feliz played on defense over the past couple years, given how easy he made the position look. His arm strength and accuracy were amazing. The wisdom of jettisoning that defense in favor of Polanco's offensive strengths is certainly grounds for debate. But again, this particular discussion is about Polanco's offense.
David, you really do well with this kind of analysis. Really helps me understand the way baseball people use data to analyze performance. In this case, the conclusions are clear: with Polly, better contact hitter in the 2 spot and more flexibility with lineup shuffling. And on defense, we will have to wait and see, but I think any third baseman's impact - in terms of making a play that wins or loses a game - can probably be counted on one hand for the whole season.— df817- Nice work, Murph. I don't see defense as being a noticeable issue. If anything, the consistency (possibly moreso than the production) will be his most valuable asset on offense and should make-up for any drop off in D.— e4stringer
excellent sports journalism on this one- Don't underestimate Pedro Feliz's great defense. What he didn't give on offense (and he was better during the regular season at the plate than in the playoffs), he more than made up for with his glove.— El Tel
- Beltre is so overrated it's embarrassing as a sports fan to hear people saying that the Red Sox got a bargain in signing him. Unless Beltre gets injured he will be getting paid about $10 million where he isn't even worth $5 million. Outside of his "Brady Anderson Season" in 04, his career OPS is about .750 compared to Polanco's .761. Beltre is still making money from that one season because GMs are fooled into thinking he can duplicate that without steroids. Haha. Good Luck.— mikebarley
- Did you see yesterday that Vic led off and got on base a couple of times. He and Polly amost worked a perfect hit and run in the first inning. Only Polly's rocket was caught in left center and should have resulted in the DP but the ball hit Vic going back to first. Still it was good situational hitting that would not have occurred with Rollins who had one of the lowest on base percent of any hitter leading off in the first inning last year.— Dull
- Love your articles Murph - terrible for productivity but fantastic for accumulating Phillies knowledge. Anywho, here's a thought for a future article: is there anyway to look at how much defense v. offense on third base effects a team? I may be talking master thesis here, in which case never mind, but it would be interesting to take a couple of prominent 3rd basemen known for one or the other and see how each effected their overall team. Regardless, keep up the great work man!— 3-hit shutout
- very cerebral stuff, interesting even to a guy who's not a big baseball fan. and you keep doing it. still want to see victorino lead off, could be very productive with polanco at the 2.— bigsteve
- Well thought out article. What "The Head" affords the lineup to do is adapt; adapt to circumstances and adapt to hot hitting streaks and cold hitting streaks. They couldn't make those moves last year, and at some points, it really hurt the team.— beegal99
- Interesting article, as you sum up between PP and Vic, "Not a huge disparity". This is another potential error by the Phils: this is Vic's spot to lose, he's more than earned it. With our lineup, the #2's #1 priority is to get on base. In that regard, both PP and Vic are .350 career on basers, but Vic is trending UPWARD entering his prime. Were also gonna miss Feliz's fielding, rock solid in the post season.— playboy
- Murph... You put Pedro Feliz in at #6 in your second lineup. Did you mean Placido Polanco?— BammBamm
- My head hurts. But, to me, as long as Polanco can field his new position, we're fine. I'm fine if he hits 7th, so long as he fields well.— eman
- +1 Nice job Murph! Keep it up. Completely agree that even though 3 years is 1 year longer than I would have liked, it won't be dead money b/c Poly at worst would be a super-sub in the 3rd year. With respect to Feliz's defense, I certainly think he was good but not as "great" as everyone automatically assumes. Feliz's range was a little more limited than many may concede. I think defensively it's almost a push between the 2 and offensively it's at worst a marginal upgrade. Finally, from the outside looking in, I think Poly may give the squad a little more leadership. Feliz was a great guy and all but I think Poly has a little more fire and garners a little more respect/gravitas b/c of what he was able to do in DET.— DennyP
- BammBamm, my guess is you didn't excel reading comprehension in school. Read it again, this time, slowwwwly. you can do it buddy— flyers70
- Looking at OPS is pretty pointless here. They didn't bring Polanco over because of his slugging and Feliz wasn't much of a slugger either, hitting far less homers here than he did in SF. When did a 3 year contract become a long-term deal? I would say that a contract has to at least be 4 years before you start calling it a "long-term" contract. 3 years isn't a big deal. They wanted him here for 3 years because they have a lot of their guys locked up for the next 2-3 years. How could the Phillies have overpaid for Polanco based on Beltre's contract when Beltre is making significantly MORE this season than Polanco? That doesn't make any sense. Beltre only got a 1 year deal because he was hurt last year and his numbers have steadily declined since his 1 really good year with the Dodgers. Nobody wanted to give the guy more than 1 year and he wanted to see if he can have a good year and then try free-agency again next off-season. The Phillies could have gotten Beltre for 1 year deal if they wanted him, but not Polanco. As for Polanco and Victorino, the question isn't whether Victorino can be an efficient #2 hitter. Victorino can and will perform situational hitting if he must do so. However, that goes against his natural hitting personality and he can do a lot more damage driving in runs and wreaking havoc out of the 6 or 7 spot than Polanco could. So you can probably get more out of Victorino in the 6 or 7 spot and Polanco in the 2 spot than you could get out of them combined if you flip-flopped those spots in the order. As for fielding, Feliz had a great arm and made some great plays, but he never won a Gold Glove and he made some occasional errors on routine balls. Polanco will be fine there.— JimG
