Pedro Martinez will start tomorrow, his first action since he suffered a strained neck in Atlanta on Sept. 19. The move will help prevent a long layoff for Cliff Lee before the start of the playoffs (provided, of course, the Phillies make the postseason), who would have been on six days rest for Game 1 or seven days rest for Game 2 if he made his scheduled start tomorrow.

It'll be interesting to see how long Martinez can pitch tomorrow. Since throwing 130 pitches in a brilliant eight scoreless innings against the Mets on Sept. 13, he has thrown just 56 pitches. Those came in three innings against the Braves, when he strained his neck in his only at-bat.

For what it's worth, this would also enable Martinez to start a potential tie-breaker on Monday, with Lee available for a potential Wild Card tiebreaker Tuesday (see scenarios below).

But assuming the Phillies do not blow the four-game lead they currently have -- all it will take is three wins in the next six games, or some Braves losses -- it is pretty clear that this move was made to give them the best possible set-up heading into the playoffs.

Logic might suggest that Cole Hamels is your game one starter. After all, he thrived in the role last year, and has pitched better than Lee over his past several starts. But Hamels started last night, meaning he can not start again before Saturday. If he starts Saturday, his next turn in the rotation would fall on the day of Game 2.

The Phillies could do something funky and have Hamels throw an abbreviated outing on Friday, provided they've clinched by then. But why risk messing with his rhythm? After all, he is better on four days rest, which he would be on for Game 2. And Lee is historically better on five days rest, which he would be on for Game 1.

Both players would be available to pitch Game 5, Hamels on four days and Lee on five days, thanks to two off days during the series.

^

Here are the tie-breaker scenarios:

If the Braves and the Phillies are tied and both of their records are higher than the Rockies, the Braves would be the NL East Champ and the Phillies would be the Wild Card.

If the Braves and the Phillies are tied and both of their records are worse than the Rockies, then there would be a one-game playoff on Monday.

If the Braves, Phillies and Rockies are all tied, a one-game playoff for the division would be held on Monday, and the loser would face the Rockies in a playoff on Tuesday.

If the Braves, Phillies, Rockies and Dodgers all are tied, there would be two divisional tiebreakers on Monday, followed by a Wild Card tiebreaker between the losers on Tuesday.

The Phillies would host a playoff game against the Rockies. The Dodgers and Braves would host if they face the Phillies.

I'm about to type a phrase that would have been tough to imagine using five days ago, when the Phillies beat the Brewers to take a seven-game lead in the NL East with 10 to play.

Must win.

As in, they must win tonight. It isn't time to push the panic button yet. But if the Phillies somehow manage to lose tonight, against a pitcher who is making his first major league start, then it might be time to start worrying. To be clear - a four-game lead with six to play is still a comfortable cushion. According to ESPN.com, the Phillies still have a 99.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. But lose tonight, and they'll need to win three of their remaining five games against two teams who they are combined 8-12 against this season, or hope that the Braves come back to Earth and lose at least a game or two.

All this being said, I ask you this: Is there anyone you would rather have on the mound tonight than J.A. Happ? I raised a question today in the paper that the Phillies will need to ask themselves in the coming days: Although Happ might seem to be an ideal piece to bolster a struggling bulpen, can Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee afford NOT to have Happ in the posteason rotation (assuming, of course, there is a need for one)?

Nobody is arguing that Happ has reached the level of a Cole Hamels or a Cliff Lee. Happ has never started a postseason game before (although Lee hasn't either). But in a stretch in which Hamels and Lee have both turned in some clunkers, can the Phillies afford to take an arm out of their rotation that has shown the ability to pitch effectively deep into games? If Hamels pitches like the Hamels of last postseason and Lee pitches like the Lee of his first five starts here, then maybe the best combination does have Happ heading into the bullpen to stabilize the eighth or ninth innings of tight games. But can the Phillies afford to keep Happ out of the rotation, particularly if they are unsure of which Lee or Hamels will show up in their starts?

To be fair, Hamels has been pretty sharp lately. And he had some bad luck last night. With two out in the seventh he had allowed three runs, but gave up a soft single to Michael Bourn, who then stole second despite a pickoff. Hamels then gave up an RBI single to Miguel Tejada, and the bullpen couldn't limit the damage. In his last seven starts, Hamels has a 2.81 ERA and a .237 BAA.

Statistics since July 28 (Lee's first trip through rotation)

Happ:     9 starts, 2.47 ERA, .241 BAA, .311 OBPA, 7 HR
Lee:      11 starts, 3.28 ERA, .258 BAA, .282 OBPA, 6 HR
Hamels: 12 starts, 3.68 ERA, .252 BAA, .304 OBPA, 7 HR

Innings/Start since May 23 (Happ's first trip through rotation)

Happ (21 starts):   7+: 10, 6+: 16, <6: 5*, <5: 1*
Lee (24 starts):      7+: 15, 6+: 20, <6: 4, <5: 3
Hamels (24 starts): 7+:  9, 6+: 17, <6: 7, <5: 1

*Includes one injury-shortened start

Runs allowed/start since July 28

Happ:       <3: 7*, <4: 8, <5: 9, 5+: 0
Hamels:   <3: 6,   <4: 6, <5: 10, 5+: 2
Lee:         <3: 7,    <4: 7, <5: 7,  5+: 4

Innings/start since July 28

Happ:      7+: 4, 6+: 7, <6: 2*, <5: 1*
Hamels:   7+: 5, 6+: 9, <6: 3, <5: 0
Lee:        7+: 7, 6+: 8, <6: 3, <5: 2

 ^

Just a quick note. There has been a lot of talk about some of the Phillies' regulars needing a day off. I know that doesn't sit well with a lot of you. After all, nobody was talking about needing a day off when the Phillies were four games out last year instead of four games ahead.

But just for your perspective:

Last year, when the Phillies clinched, they had played 23 games in 27 days.

Tonight will be their 28th game in 28 days.

Last year, from Aug. 19 through Sept. 27, they played 36 games in 41 days.

Tonight will be their 38th game in 41 days since Aug. 18.

You'll find an interesting dichotomy within the baseball coverage in today's Daily News. On one page, there is a story about the Phillies' potential to use these last seven games to get hot. On another, there is a story about their potential to use these last seven games to get some much-needed rest.

This raises a number of questions. Is it more important for the Phillies to get their regulars and pitchers into a groove after a mediocre seven-game road trip that saw mixed results from the line-up, bullpen and rotation? Or is it more important for all of the above to get some rest, particularly guys like Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino, all of whom have shown signs of fatigure this month? Are the two mutually exclusive, or might they go hand-in-hand?

I spent this morning poring over statistics in an attempt to find some quantifiable answers. Which playoff contender has the hottest pitching staff right now? The hottest line-up? The hottest team overall?

First, though, does it even matter?

History suggests yes. . .and no. Last year, the Phillies went 7-3 in their last 10 games and 14-6 in their last 20. Two years ago, the Rockies went 9-1 in their last 10 games and 16-4 in their last 20. Both teams represented the National League in the World Series.

But in 2006,  Cardinals went 3-7 in their last 10 and were out-scored by an average of a run per game. They went 8-12 in their last 20, and 13-17 in their last 30. . .and they won the World Series.

Here are the last eight NL Champions and their records and average score in their last 10, 20 and 30 games:

2008 Phillies:     7-3 (5.2-4.6), 14-6 (5.7-4.7), 19-11 (5.2-4.4)
2007 Rockies:   9-1 (6.2-3.3), 16-4 (6.7-4.1), 22-8 (6.3-4.3)
2006 Cardinals: 3-7 (4.6-5.6), 8-12 (5.3-4.7), 13-17 (4.6-4.3)
2005 Astros:     6-4 (4.0-3.1), 13-7 (4.6-3.4), 19-11 (4.4-3.6)
2004 Cardinals: 5-5 (5.2-4.8), 11-9 (4.8-4.2), 17-13 (4.9-4.4)
2003 Marlins:    7-3 (4.2-4.2), 14-6 (4.6-4.2), 21-9 (4.5-3.8)
2002 Giants:     9-1 (5.3-1.9), 15-5 (5.3-3.0), 22-8 (5.3-3.1)
2001 DBacks:  7-3 (5.9-4.5), 12-8 (6.3-4.0), 15-15 (5.7-5.0)

So unless you play in a non-descript midwestern city with horrible nightlife and Stepford Fans, it pays to be hot.

Which brings us to 2009, and the five teams with a legit chance at the postseason. Who is hot? Who is not? Who should the Phillies fear in the postseason? How hot are they? Does it matter? Does the offense need to start clicking?

Glad you asked. . .

Warning: what you are about to read is an orgy of information that only Bill James and Rain Man - or are they the same person - could possibly make sense of. But I'll try.

National League Standings w/ Remaining Opponents

1. Dodgers (93-63): Pitt. (1), SD (2), Colorado (3)
2. Phillies (90-65, 2.5 GB): Hou. (4), Fla. (3)
3. St. Louis (90-66, 3.0 GB): Cin. (3), Mil. (3)
4. Colorado (88-68, 5 GB): Mil. (3), LaD (3)
5. Atlanta (85-70, 7.5 GB): Fla. (3), Was. (4)

NL Contenders w/ Record in Last 10, 20, 30 games

Dodgers:  7-3, 13-7, 19-11
Phillies:    5-5, 13-7, 17-13
St. Louis:  5-5, 10-10, 18-12
Colorado:  6-4, 12-8, 16-14
Atlanta:     8-2, 15-5, 19-11

Pitching

Last 20 games, record when allowing 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 8-1, Phillies 8-1, Cardinals 9-4, Rockies 9-1, Braves 10-2
4-6: Dodgers 5-4, Phillies 5-1, Cardinals 1-4, Rockies 2-3, Braves 3-3
7-+: Dodgers 0-2, Phillies 0-5, Cardinals 0-2, Rockies 1-4, Braves 1-1

Season, record when allowing 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 67-15, Phillies 56-8, Cardinals 71-13, Rockies 60-13, Braves 65-16
4-6: Dodgers 25-30, Phillies 28-29, Cardinals 14-28, Rockies 21-26, Braves 16-32
7-+: Dodgers 1-18, Phillies 6-28, Cardinals 5-25, Rockies 7-29, Braves 4-22

Last 20 games, pitching lines
Dodgers: 3.05 ERA, 73 runs, 159 hits, 59 BB, 47 XBH, 14 HR, 6/9 SB, 159 SO
Phillies:   4.07 ERA, 84 runs, 189 hits, 46 BB, 63 XBH, 19 HR, 12/14 SB, 140 SO
St. Louis: 3.20 ERA, 67 runs, 165 hits, 59 BB, 46 XBH, 10 HR, 5/8 SB, 153 SO
Colorado: 4.34 ERA, 89 runs, 149 hits, 82 BB, 43 XBH, 16 HR, 11/15 SB, 177 SO
Atlanta:    2.99 ERA, 65 runs, 162 hits, 60 BB, 44 XBH, 16 HR, 14/20 SB, 148 SO

Analysis: Despite all the hand-wringing about the inconsistent performance of the Phillies offense, the numbers suggest that you should concentrate most of your concern on the pitching staff. The good news is that, over the last 20 games, the Phillies are 13-2 when they hold an opponent under seven runs, the best mark of any of the contenders. Yes, you say, but they will be facing better pitchers in the postseason. Well, some number crunching by Rich Hofmann a couple weeks ago revealed that, at the time, the Phillies had averaged 3.86 earned runs per nine innings against the Top 12 pitchers  in the NL based on ERA, the highest among L.A, St. Louis and Colorado (Atlanta wasn't considered a legit playoff threat at the time). The bad news is that Phillies pitchers have allowed seven or more runs in five games. The worse news is that two of those games were started by their top two starters, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and a third was started by likely Game 3 starter Joe Blanton.

Offense

Last 20 games, record when scoring 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 1-4, Phillies 1-1, Cardinals 4-8, Rockies 2-6, Braves 3-4
4-6: Dodgers 4-3, Phillies 9-4, Cardinals 3-2, Rockies 7-2, Braves 6-1
7-+: Dodgers 8-0, Phillies 3-2, Cardinals 3-0, Rockies 3-0, Braves 6-0

Season, record when scoring 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 18-41, Phillies 10-44, Cardinals 25-50, Rockies 11-39, Braves 11-56
4-6: Dodgers 36-19, Phillies 41-17, Cardinals 33-14, Rockies 40-36, Braves 34-12
7-+: Dodgers 39-3, Phillies 39-4, Cardinals 32-2, Rockies 37-3, Braves 40-4

Last 20 games, hitting lines
Dodgers: 116 runs, 185 hits, 86 BB, 68 XBH, 25 HR, 16/21 SB, 148 LOB
Phillies:   108 runs, 185 hits, 72 BB, 70 XBH, 26 HR, 17/22 SB, 149 LOB
St. Louis:  77 runs, 186 hits, 50 BB, 52 XBH, 16 HR, 14/17 SB, 154 LOB
Colorado:  92 runs, 159 hits, 88 BB, 53 XBH, 21 HR, 15/21 SB, 146 LOB
Atlanta:   103 runs, 184 hits, 71 BB, 64 XBH, 17 HR, 6/8 SB, 153 LOB

Analysis: Look at the hottest offensive team over the last 20 games -- surprise, surprise. The Phillies have scored four or more runs in 18 games, more than the Dodgers (15), Cardinals (8), Rockies (12) and Braves (13). They have scored the second-most runs, have the most extra-base hits, most home runs, most stolen bases, and -- believe it or not -- have stranded fewer runners than two of the four other teams.

Overall

I do not have any concrete numbers to back it up, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the majority of people in the Delaware Valley consider the Cardinals to be the team they'd least like to face in the playoffs, most certainly in the first round. I've heard other writers say it. I've heard fans say it. And I've heard friends say it. But I contend, and the numbers over the last 20 games back me up, that the Dodgers are the team that could send the Phillies to the earliest exit. Both L.A. and the Cardinals have succeeded in thwarting the Phillies' primary means of offense-- home runs and base-stealing. But the once-vaunted Cardinals offense has seen its production drop as it's schedule has toughened. They've scored three or fewer runs in 12 of the last 20 games. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have scored more than four runs in 15 of their last 20 games to go with a 3.05 ERA. They have a tough lefty in Randy Wolf who has given the Phillies problems, a righty in Hiroki Kuroda who has stymied the Phillies since coming to America, and another lefty in Clayton Kershaw who has improved vastly since the last time he faced Ryan Howard and Co. More than anything, the Dodgers are hot, having won seven out of 10 games and 19 of their last 30.

If ever there were incentive for the Phillies to finish strong this week, the Dodgers are it. Currently a half game ahead of the Cardinals for the second-best record in the NL, they would face the Rockies if the playoffs began today. But if St. Louis out-plays them over these final seven games -- and with six games against the Reds and Brewers, the toughest part of their stretch-run schedule is behind them -- and finished in second place, the Phillies would likely be headed to Dodger Stadium for a five-game series.

This brings us back to the original question. Which is more important over these final seven games: finding some rest for the weary, or finding a groove? 

Perhaps the answer is C. - Out-playing the Cardinals.

^

Can't get enough numbers? Here are some more:

Record, Score against LaD, PHI, STL, COL and ATL
Dodgers: 21-15, 167-140 (12-3, 92-56 vs COL, 2-5, 19-31 vs STL)
Phillies:   19-17, 165-166 (8-10, 69-88 vs ATL)
St. Louis:  9-16, 91-125 (1-6, 19-42 vs COL, 1-4, 24-40 vs PHI)
Colorado:15-21, 164-184
Atlanta:   22-17, 182-154 ( 4-3, 28-30 vs LAD, 4-2, 24-17 vs STL, 4-4, 42-38 vs COL)

Last 30 games hitting:
Dodgers: 157 runs, 277 hits, 118 BB, 96 XBH, 41 HR, 20/28 SB, 223 LOB
Phillies:    129 runs, 261 hits, 91 BB, 98 XBH, 36 HR, 21/26 SB, 219 LOB
St. Louis: 132 runs, 278 hits, 85 BB, 87 XBH, 29 HR, 20/23 SB, 222 LOB
Colorado:128 runs, 256 hits, 115 BB, 82 XBH, 34 HR, 20/32 SB, 221 LOB
Atlanta:    150 runs, 280 hits, 107 BB, 84 XBH, 27 HR, 8/11 SB, 233 LOB

Last 30 games pitching:
Dodgers: 2.87 ERA, 102 runs, 243 hits, 92 BB, 69 XBH, 23 HR, 13/22 SB, 253 SO
Phillies:    4.04 ERA, 122 runs, 267 hits, 71 BB, 89 XBH, 31 HR, 17/21 SB, 219 SO
St. Louis: 3.23 ERA, 100 runs, 245 hits, 85 BB, 68 XBH, 14 HR, 6/11 SB, 216 SO
Colorado:4.31 ERA, 132 runs, 233 hits, 114 BB, 73 XBH, 26 HR, 19/24 SB, 242 SO
Atlanta:    3.36 ERA, 110 runs, 264 hits, 86 BB, 85 XBH, 26 HR, 16/22 SB, 221 SO

Last 10 games hitting:
Dodgers:  64 runs, 93 hits, 46 BB, 38 XBH, 14 HR, 6/9 SB, 71 LOB
Phillies:    56 runs, 95 hits, 36 BB, 33 XBH, 12 HR, 6/11 SB, 77 LOB
St. Louis: 38 runs, 93 hits, 24 BB, 25 XBH, 9 HR, 6/8 SB, 73 LOB
Colorado:51 runs, 88 hits, 41 BB, 32 XBH, 12 HR, 6/11 SB, 76 LOB
Atlanta:    59 runs, 98 hits, 32 BB, 32 XBH, 9 HR, 5/5 SB, 72 LOB

Last 10 games pitching:

Dodgers: 3.18 ERA, 38 runs, 79 hits, 32 BB, 23 XBH, 8 HR, 5/6 SB, 79 SO
Phillies:    4.73 ERA, 49 runs, 99 hits, 25 BB, 32 XBH, 12 HR, 6/8 SB, 74 SO
St. Louis: 2.81 ERA, 31 runs, 84 hits, 31 BB, 23 XBH, 4 HR, 3/4 SB, 78 SO
Colorado:4.35 ERA, 46 runs, 74 hits, 37 BB, 23 XBH, 8 HR, 6/8 SB, 90 SO
Atlanta:    3.36 ERA, 35 runs, 79 hits, 30 BB, 30 XBH, 12 HR, 5/10 SB, 74 SO
 

After Brad Lidge blew his 11th save of the season Wednesday night and set-up man Ryan Madson contributed by allowing a run in the eighth, the focus once again turned to the situation at the back of the bullpen. During a post-game conversation with another writer, I floated one possible remedy: J.A. Happ. Several of you were thinking the same thing, judging by the three or four emails I received today inquiring about the possibility. And, interestingly enough, Charlie Manuel admitted tonight that the thought has crossed his mind.

Before we go any further, let me stress: Manuel said, as he has all along, that he views Happ as a starter. The lefty did not give him any reason to feel otherwise Thursday night, allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings in his first full start in more than three weeks. Happ has proven to be a valuable commodity this season, routinely pitching deep into games. Lately, he has relied more heavily on his off-speed stuff, an important and impressive evolution for a young pitcher who already possesses an incredibly deceptive fastball. Happ has the stuff to be a very good major league pitcher for a long time.

But the Phillies' only concern is the present, and the present currently holds a number of uncertainties with regards to the bullpen. Chief among those uncertainties are the team's left-handed options and their options in the ninth inning of tight games. For that reason, Manuel said yesterday he viewed Happ as a potential component of the back end of the bullpen come playoff time.

"Happ's really improved as the season's gone along," Manuel said. "I like Happ as a starter. I always have. But I also see him, with the way our pitching looks, there would be a chance that he could wind up in the back end of our bullpen if we don't get some things straightened out."

If either Romero or Eyre - or both - are unable to return from their respective injuries, Happ would be an obvious candidate to fill the void. If both of those players do return, Happ could still be an option, except in the ninth inning, where Manuel feels he has the stuff and the composure to succeed.

"I think he can do that, and I think his experience that he has his last couple of years can allow him to do that," Manuel said. "Because he can throw strikes, and he's definitely not scared. I'll talk about that. I don't know exactly how we set up. If we get Romero back, I like Happ as a starter, I always have."

Happ showed last night that he can succeed against the toughest hitters the majors have to offer, from either side of the plate. Ryan Braun, the right-handed slugger who is hitting .312 with 29 home runs, went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against him. MVP Candidate Prince Fielder went 1-for-3 with a strikeout and a double.

Is Happ a likely candidate to close? No. But if Romero and Eyre return, and Pedro Martinez pitches well in his last two starts, who knows?

Poll: How should the Phillies use J.A. Happ in the playoffs? (2798 votes)

Carlos Ruiz's trip back to Philadelphia to see hand specialst Dr. Randall Culp sounded ominous. But the news, according to the Phillies, is positive:

An MRI showed no structural damage to the catcher's sprained left wrist, and he could be back on the field within three to five days. Ruiz will be re-examined today, at which point he will likely have an anti-inflammatory shot. Once the shot does its work, Ruiz is expected to return to the lineup.

While Ruiz is not the most recognizeable player on the team, losing him would create huge voids behind the plate in the No. 8 spot in the lineup.

"It was actually good news because there was no structural damage," general manager Ruben Amaro said, "which is good, because wrists are tricky."

Ruiz has drawn rave reviews from the Phillies for his work behind the plate, both in his defense and his handling of a pitching staff that has posted a 3.62 ERA since June 1. He has also contributed at the plate, hitting .253 with a .353 on base percentage after suffering through a dismal 2008 in which those respective figures were .219 and .320. 
Ruiz suffered the injury in the second inning Friday night when he blocked the plate and tagged out Diaz.
Prior to that game in Atlanta, he was hitting .320 with a .410 on base percentage, four home runs, 19 RBI and 17 runs scored in 37 games.

Ruiz caught all 17 games during the Phillies' playoff run last season.

"We can't afford to lose anybody that plays that much," manager Charlie Manuel said. "We're losing one of our starters. That's tough. It's hard to lose guys like that. Your catcher is very important to you."

^

More updates:

1) Scott Eyre is available to pitch tonight and Manuel said he will not hesitate to use him.

2) Brett Myers is still scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday.

3) J.C. Romero will throw an inning in an instructional league game tomorrow.

4) Chan Ho Park is in Clearwater and could take fielding practice within the next "several days" (Amaro's words). After that, the team will make plans to get him on the mound.

A quick update on some things:

1) Brett Myers was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right latissimus dorsi (lat) muscle. He is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Tuesday, and the Phillies are hopeful he will be able to return to competition at some point after that.

2) Three positive reports today for three key relievers: Lefthander Scott Eyre threw a bullpen session and feels he is ready to return to action. Pitching coach Rich Dubee and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. both said the veteran was close to being ready to return. Lefthander J.C. Romero threw a 50-pitch bullpen session in Clearwater and could face hitters in the instructional league as soon as Thursday. Also, Chan Ho Park continues to progress faster than expected and could be ready to pitch sometime next week.

3) The Phillies beat the Marlins 9-3 in the first game of the doubleheader, lowering their magic number to five. Joe Blanton pitched seven scoreless innings.

Thanks to the Braves' beat-down of the Mets last night, the Phillies enter today's doubleheader against the Marlins with a magic number of six over both the Marlins and the Braves. That means they need a combination of six wins and Marlins losses to eliminate the Fish, and six wins and Braves losses to eliminate the Braves. Crunch those numbers, and they can clinch as soon as Thursday in Milwaukee, although it would require the Braves losing their last two games at Citi Field and the Phillies (87-61) sweeping this three-game set against Florida.

Every Phillies loss or Braves win moves the potential clinch-date back a day.

The earliest a Phillies team has clinched a division since the days of the 162-game schedule was 1976, when they clinched in their 155th game.

Thursday will be their 152nd game, Friday their 153rd, Saturday their 154th.

Other notes of interest for today:

1) Brett Myers is scheduled to be in Philadelphia, where team doctor Michael Ciccotti will examine his sore shoulder.

2) Because Cliff Lee threw just 52 pitches in a rain-shortened outing Sunday, there is a chance the Phillies bring him back earlier than Saturday, when his turn in the rotation arrives. If the Phillies decided to start him on Friday on normal rest, it would enable them to get Pedro Martinez another day to rebound from the still neck that knocked him from Saturday's game after just three innings.

3) Today's doubleheader starts at 4:10 p.m. Joe Blanton is pitching the first game, followed by Jamie Moyer in the nightcap.

4) Raul Ibanez enters today hitting .316 with a .381 on base percentage with four home runs, eight RBI and 16 strikeouts in 63 at-bats over his last 16 games. In his 27 previous games, Ibanez hit .177 with a .262 on base percentage with one home run, four RBI and 30 strikeouts in 96 at-bats (Aug. 1 through Sept. 3).

5) Carlos Ruiz was hopeful that he would be able to play today after sustaining a sprained wrist in Friday night's win over the Braves. If Ruiz is unable to go, it will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle the catching duties in tonight's doubleheader. I don't think there is any way Charlie Manuel asks Paul Bako to catch 18 consecutive innings. But it is also highly unlikely that he would send September call-up Paul Hoover out to catch Jamie Moyer, who uses a different set of signals than most pitchers. If Ruiz is unable to go, I'd look for Hoover to start the first game.

6) A topic of discussion amongst some writers the other night: Who is the one position player the Phillies can least afford to lose to injury? To me, the answer is Jimmy Rollins, given the three unique skill sets he brings to the field - a switch-hitting leadoff hitter playing a Gold Glove short stop -- as well as the options the Phillies have for replacing him. A close second in Chase Utley. Ryan Howard has been on fire the last couple of months, but Greg Dobbs provides a much more solid alternative at the plate and in the field than the Phillies could find for Rollins or Utley.

Things are getting mighty interesting in the National League. With the Dodgers' loss to the G-men yesterday, the Phillies are now just one game behind Los Angeles for the best record in the National League. St. Louis is in third place, two games behind the Dodgers, one behind the Phillies.

As most of you know, the No. 1 seed gets home field advantage throughout the playoffs and plays the Wild Card team in the first round. The No. 2 seed plays the No. 3 seed in the first round. But two teams from the same division cannot play in the first round, so if the No. 1 seed and the Wild Card team are in the same division, then the No. 1 seed plays the No. 3 seed and the No. 2 seed plays the Wild Card.

Here is how the top three teams stack up for the rest of the season:

Dodgers   (88-60, 0 GB, 14 remaining)
Phillies  (86-60, 1 GB, 16 remaining)
Cardinals (86-62, 2 GB, 14 remaining)

The Phillies have the tiebreaker over St. Louis, thanks to a 4-1 record in their season series. The Dodgers have the tiebreaker over the Phillies, thanks to their 4-3 record. So the Phillies need to win three more games than the Dodgers over these last 16 days, and need to win the same amount as the Cardinals.

9/19 PHI at ATL, LAD vs SFG, STL vs CHC
9/20 PHI at ATL, LAD vs SFG, STL vs CHC
9/21 PHI at OFF, LAD is OFF, STL at HOU
9/22 PHI at FLA, LAD at WAS, STL at HOU
        PHI at FLA,
9/23 PHI at FLA, LAD at WAS, STL at HOU
9/24 PHI at MIL, LAD at WAS, STL is OFF
9/25 PHI at MIL, LAD at PIT, STL at COL
9/26 PHI at MIL, LAD at PIT, STL at COL
9/27 PHI at MIL, LAD at PIT, STL at COL
9/28 PHI vs HOU, LAD at PIT, STL is OFF
9/29 PHI vs HOU, LAD at SDP, STL at CIN
9/30 PHI vs HOU, LAD at SDP, STL at CIN
10/1 PHI vs HOU, LAD at SDP, STL at CIN
10/2 PHI vs FLA, LAD vs COL, STL vs MIL
10/3 PHI vs FLA, LAD vs COL, STL vs MIL
10/4 PHI vs FLA, LAD vs COL, STL vs MIL

Just a quick set-up for tonight's game before I run down to the clubhouse. . .

The Braves enter having won seven straight games, the longest streak in the majors. The Phillies enter having won five straight, the second-longest straight in the majors.

Tim Hudson is making his fourth start of the season since returning from elbow surgery.

J.A. Happ is making his first start since missing two starts with a rib cage injury.

Atlanta enters the night having won seven straight and eight of last nine since losing five straight (two to FLA, three to CIn) from Sept. 2-6

During seven-game win streak, Braves have scored 45 runs (6.5 r/g), 82 hits (11.7/g) against Houston, St. Louis and the Mets

The Phillies over last 7 (6-1): 34 runs (4.9 r/g) with 61 hits (8.7/g)

Phillies pitchers over last seven games: 2.71 ERA, 8.7 h/g, 46 SO, 13 BB, 1 HBP, 16 XBH
Braves pitchers over last seven games: 2.71 ERA, 9.4 h/g, 49 SO, 20 BB, 1 HBP, 11 XBH

Tonight will be an interesting start to a big series. More to come.