THINKS THE EAGLES STOLE ONE
You'll find an interesting dichotomy within the baseball coverage in today's Daily News. On one page, there is a story about the Phillies' potential to use these last seven games to get hot. On another, there is a story about their potential to use these last seven games to get some much-needed rest.
This raises a number of questions. Is it more important for the Phillies to get their regulars and pitchers into a groove after a mediocre seven-game road trip that saw mixed results from the line-up, bullpen and rotation? Or is it more important for all of the above to get some rest, particularly guys like Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino, all of whom have shown signs of fatigure this month? Are the two mutually exclusive, or might they go hand-in-hand?
I spent this morning poring over statistics in an attempt to find some quantifiable answers. Which playoff contender has the hottest pitching staff right now? The hottest line-up? The hottest team overall?
First, though, does it even matter?
History suggests yes. . .and no. Last year, the Phillies went 7-3 in their last 10 games and 14-6 in their last 20. Two years ago, the Rockies went 9-1 in their last 10 games and 16-4 in their last 20. Both teams represented the National League in the World Series.
But in 2006, Cardinals went 3-7 in their last 10 and were out-scored by an average of a run per game. They went 8-12 in their last 20, and 13-17 in their last 30. . .and they won the World Series.
Here are the last eight NL Champions and their records and average score in their last 10, 20 and 30 games:
2008 Phillies: 7-3 (5.2-4.6), 14-6 (5.7-4.7), 19-11 (5.2-4.4)
2007 Rockies: 9-1 (6.2-3.3), 16-4 (6.7-4.1), 22-8 (6.3-4.3)
2006 Cardinals: 3-7 (4.6-5.6), 8-12 (5.3-4.7), 13-17 (4.6-4.3)
2005 Astros: 6-4 (4.0-3.1), 13-7 (4.6-3.4), 19-11 (4.4-3.6)
2004 Cardinals: 5-5 (5.2-4.8), 11-9 (4.8-4.2), 17-13 (4.9-4.4)
2003 Marlins: 7-3 (4.2-4.2), 14-6 (4.6-4.2), 21-9 (4.5-3.8)
2002 Giants: 9-1 (5.3-1.9), 15-5 (5.3-3.0), 22-8 (5.3-3.1)
2001 DBacks: 7-3 (5.9-4.5), 12-8 (6.3-4.0), 15-15 (5.7-5.0)
So unless you play in a non-descript midwestern city with horrible nightlife and Stepford Fans, it pays to be hot.
Which brings us to 2009, and the five teams with a legit chance at the postseason. Who is hot? Who is not? Who should the Phillies fear in the postseason? How hot are they? Does it matter? Does the offense need to start clicking?
Glad you asked. . .
Warning: what you are about to read is an orgy of information that only Bill James and Rain Man - or are they the same person - could possibly make sense of. But I'll try.
National League Standings w/ Remaining Opponents
1. Dodgers (93-63): Pitt. (1), SD (2), Colorado (3)
2. Phillies (90-65, 2.5 GB): Hou. (4), Fla. (3)
3. St. Louis (90-66, 3.0 GB): Cin. (3), Mil. (3)
4. Colorado (88-68, 5 GB): Mil. (3), LaD (3)
5. Atlanta (85-70, 7.5 GB): Fla. (3), Was. (4)
NL Contenders w/ Record in Last 10, 20, 30 games
Dodgers: 7-3, 13-7, 19-11
Phillies: 5-5, 13-7, 17-13
St. Louis: 5-5, 10-10, 18-12
Colorado: 6-4, 12-8, 16-14
Atlanta: 8-2, 15-5, 19-11
Pitching
Last 20 games, record when allowing 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 8-1, Phillies 8-1, Cardinals 9-4, Rockies 9-1, Braves 10-2
4-6: Dodgers 5-4, Phillies 5-1, Cardinals 1-4, Rockies 2-3, Braves 3-3
7-+: Dodgers 0-2, Phillies 0-5, Cardinals 0-2, Rockies 1-4, Braves 1-1
Season, record when allowing 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 67-15, Phillies 56-8, Cardinals 71-13, Rockies 60-13, Braves 65-16
4-6: Dodgers 25-30, Phillies 28-29, Cardinals 14-28, Rockies 21-26, Braves 16-32
7-+: Dodgers 1-18, Phillies 6-28, Cardinals 5-25, Rockies 7-29, Braves 4-22
Last 20 games, pitching lines
Dodgers: 3.05 ERA, 73 runs, 159 hits, 59 BB, 47 XBH, 14 HR, 6/9 SB, 159 SO
Phillies: 4.07 ERA, 84 runs, 189 hits, 46 BB, 63 XBH, 19 HR, 12/14 SB, 140 SO
St. Louis: 3.20 ERA, 67 runs, 165 hits, 59 BB, 46 XBH, 10 HR, 5/8 SB, 153 SO
Colorado: 4.34 ERA, 89 runs, 149 hits, 82 BB, 43 XBH, 16 HR, 11/15 SB, 177 SO
Atlanta: 2.99 ERA, 65 runs, 162 hits, 60 BB, 44 XBH, 16 HR, 14/20 SB, 148 SO
Analysis: Despite all the hand-wringing about the inconsistent performance of the Phillies offense, the numbers suggest that you should concentrate most of your concern on the pitching staff. The good news is that, over the last 20 games, the Phillies are 13-2 when they hold an opponent under seven runs, the best mark of any of the contenders. Yes, you say, but they will be facing better pitchers in the postseason. Well, some number crunching by Rich Hofmann a couple weeks ago revealed that, at the time, the Phillies had averaged 3.86 earned runs per nine innings against the Top 12 pitchers in the NL based on ERA, the highest among L.A, St. Louis and Colorado (Atlanta wasn't considered a legit playoff threat at the time). The bad news is that Phillies pitchers have allowed seven or more runs in five games. The worse news is that two of those games were started by their top two starters, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and a third was started by likely Game 3 starter Joe Blanton.
Offense
Last 20 games, record when scoring 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 1-4, Phillies 1-1, Cardinals 4-8, Rockies 2-6, Braves 3-4
4-6: Dodgers 4-3, Phillies 9-4, Cardinals 3-2, Rockies 7-2, Braves 6-1
7-+: Dodgers 8-0, Phillies 3-2, Cardinals 3-0, Rockies 3-0, Braves 6-0
Season, record when scoring 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7+ runs in a game
0-3: Dodgers 18-41, Phillies 10-44, Cardinals 25-50, Rockies 11-39, Braves 11-56
4-6: Dodgers 36-19, Phillies 41-17, Cardinals 33-14, Rockies 40-36, Braves 34-12
7-+: Dodgers 39-3, Phillies 39-4, Cardinals 32-2, Rockies 37-3, Braves 40-4
Last 20 games, hitting lines
Dodgers: 116 runs, 185 hits, 86 BB, 68 XBH, 25 HR, 16/21 SB, 148 LOB
Phillies: 108 runs, 185 hits, 72 BB, 70 XBH, 26 HR, 17/22 SB, 149 LOB
St. Louis: 77 runs, 186 hits, 50 BB, 52 XBH, 16 HR, 14/17 SB, 154 LOB
Colorado: 92 runs, 159 hits, 88 BB, 53 XBH, 21 HR, 15/21 SB, 146 LOB
Atlanta: 103 runs, 184 hits, 71 BB, 64 XBH, 17 HR, 6/8 SB, 153 LOB
Analysis: Look at the hottest offensive team over the last 20 games -- surprise, surprise. The Phillies have scored four or more runs in 18 games, more than the Dodgers (15), Cardinals (8), Rockies (12) and Braves (13). They have scored the second-most runs, have the most extra-base hits, most home runs, most stolen bases, and -- believe it or not -- have stranded fewer runners than two of the four other teams.
Overall
I do not have any concrete numbers to back it up, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the majority of people in the Delaware Valley consider the Cardinals to be the team they'd least like to face in the playoffs, most certainly in the first round. I've heard other writers say it. I've heard fans say it. And I've heard friends say it. But I contend, and the numbers over the last 20 games back me up, that the Dodgers are the team that could send the Phillies to the earliest exit. Both L.A. and the Cardinals have succeeded in thwarting the Phillies' primary means of offense-- home runs and base-stealing. But the once-vaunted Cardinals offense has seen its production drop as it's schedule has toughened. They've scored three or fewer runs in 12 of the last 20 games. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have scored more than four runs in 15 of their last 20 games to go with a 3.05 ERA. They have a tough lefty in Randy Wolf who has given the Phillies problems, a righty in Hiroki Kuroda who has stymied the Phillies since coming to America, and another lefty in Clayton Kershaw who has improved vastly since the last time he faced Ryan Howard and Co. More than anything, the Dodgers are hot, having won seven out of 10 games and 19 of their last 30.
If ever there were incentive for the Phillies to finish strong this week, the Dodgers are it. Currently a half game ahead of the Cardinals for the second-best record in the NL, they would face the Rockies if the playoffs began today. But if St. Louis out-plays them over these final seven games -- and with six games against the Reds and Brewers, the toughest part of their stretch-run schedule is behind them -- and finished in second place, the Phillies would likely be headed to Dodger Stadium for a five-game series.
This brings us back to the original question. Which is more important over these final seven games: finding some rest for the weary, or finding a groove?
Perhaps the answer is C. - Out-playing the Cardinals.
^
Can't get enough numbers? Here are some more:
Record, Score against LaD, PHI, STL, COL and ATL
Dodgers: 21-15, 167-140 (12-3, 92-56 vs COL, 2-5, 19-31 vs STL)
Phillies: 19-17, 165-166 (8-10, 69-88 vs ATL)
St. Louis: 9-16, 91-125 (1-6, 19-42 vs COL, 1-4, 24-40 vs PHI)
Colorado:15-21, 164-184
Atlanta: 22-17, 182-154 ( 4-3, 28-30 vs LAD, 4-2, 24-17 vs STL, 4-4, 42-38 vs COL)
Last 30 games hitting:
Dodgers: 157 runs, 277 hits, 118 BB, 96 XBH, 41 HR, 20/28 SB, 223 LOB
Phillies: 129 runs, 261 hits, 91 BB, 98 XBH, 36 HR, 21/26 SB, 219 LOB
St. Louis: 132 runs, 278 hits, 85 BB, 87 XBH, 29 HR, 20/23 SB, 222 LOB
Colorado:128 runs, 256 hits, 115 BB, 82 XBH, 34 HR, 20/32 SB, 221 LOB
Atlanta: 150 runs, 280 hits, 107 BB, 84 XBH, 27 HR, 8/11 SB, 233 LOB
Last 30 games pitching:
Dodgers: 2.87 ERA, 102 runs, 243 hits, 92 BB, 69 XBH, 23 HR, 13/22 SB, 253 SO
Phillies: 4.04 ERA, 122 runs, 267 hits, 71 BB, 89 XBH, 31 HR, 17/21 SB, 219 SO
St. Louis: 3.23 ERA, 100 runs, 245 hits, 85 BB, 68 XBH, 14 HR, 6/11 SB, 216 SO
Colorado:4.31 ERA, 132 runs, 233 hits, 114 BB, 73 XBH, 26 HR, 19/24 SB, 242 SO
Atlanta: 3.36 ERA, 110 runs, 264 hits, 86 BB, 85 XBH, 26 HR, 16/22 SB, 221 SO
Last 10 games hitting:
Dodgers: 64 runs, 93 hits, 46 BB, 38 XBH, 14 HR, 6/9 SB, 71 LOB
Phillies: 56 runs, 95 hits, 36 BB, 33 XBH, 12 HR, 6/11 SB, 77 LOB
St. Louis: 38 runs, 93 hits, 24 BB, 25 XBH, 9 HR, 6/8 SB, 73 LOB
Colorado:51 runs, 88 hits, 41 BB, 32 XBH, 12 HR, 6/11 SB, 76 LOB
Atlanta: 59 runs, 98 hits, 32 BB, 32 XBH, 9 HR, 5/5 SB, 72 LOB
Last 10 games pitching:
Dodgers: 3.18 ERA, 38 runs, 79 hits, 32 BB, 23 XBH, 8 HR, 5/6 SB, 79 SO
Phillies: 4.73 ERA, 49 runs, 99 hits, 25 BB, 32 XBH, 12 HR, 6/8 SB, 74 SO
St. Louis: 2.81 ERA, 31 runs, 84 hits, 31 BB, 23 XBH, 4 HR, 3/4 SB, 78 SO
Colorado:4.35 ERA, 46 runs, 74 hits, 37 BB, 23 XBH, 8 HR, 6/8 SB, 90 SO
Atlanta: 3.36 ERA, 35 runs, 79 hits, 30 BB, 30 XBH, 12 HR, 5/10 SB, 74 SO
After Brad Lidge blew his 11th save of the season Wednesday night and set-up man Ryan Madson contributed by allowing a run in the eighth, the focus once again turned to the situation at the back of the bullpen. During a post-game conversation with another writer, I floated one possible remedy: J.A. Happ. Several of you were thinking the same thing, judging by the three or four emails I received today inquiring about the possibility. And, interestingly enough, Charlie Manuel admitted tonight that the thought has crossed his mind.
Before we go any further, let me stress: Manuel said, as he has all along, that he views Happ as a starter. The lefty did not give him any reason to feel otherwise Thursday night, allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings in his first full start in more than three weeks. Happ has proven to be a valuable commodity this season, routinely pitching deep into games. Lately, he has relied more heavily on his off-speed stuff, an important and impressive evolution for a young pitcher who already possesses an incredibly deceptive fastball. Happ has the stuff to be a very good major league pitcher for a long time.
But the Phillies' only concern is the present, and the present currently holds a number of uncertainties with regards to the bullpen. Chief among those uncertainties are the team's left-handed options and their options in the ninth inning of tight games. For that reason, Manuel said yesterday he viewed Happ as a potential component of the back end of the bullpen come playoff time.
"Happ's really improved as the season's gone along," Manuel said. "I like Happ as a starter. I always have. But I also see him, with the way our pitching looks, there would be a chance that he could wind up in the back end of our bullpen if we don't get some things straightened out."
If either Romero or Eyre - or both - are unable to return from their respective injuries, Happ would be an obvious candidate to fill the void. If both of those players do return, Happ could still be an option, except in the ninth inning, where Manuel feels he has the stuff and the composure to succeed.
"I think he can do that, and I think his experience that he has his last couple of years can allow him to do that," Manuel said. "Because he can throw strikes, and he's definitely not scared. I'll talk about that. I don't know exactly how we set up. If we get Romero back, I like Happ as a starter, I always have."
Happ showed last night that he can succeed against the toughest hitters the majors have to offer, from either side of the plate. Ryan Braun, the right-handed slugger who is hitting .312 with 29 home runs, went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against him. MVP Candidate Prince Fielder went 1-for-3 with a strikeout and a double.
Is Happ a likely candidate to close? No. But if Romero and Eyre return, and Pedro Martinez pitches well in his last two starts, who knows?
Carlos Ruiz's trip back to Philadelphia to see hand specialst Dr. Randall Culp sounded ominous. But the news, according to the Phillies, is positive:
An MRI showed no structural damage to the catcher's sprained left wrist, and he could be back on the field within three to five days. Ruiz will be re-examined today, at which point he will likely have an anti-inflammatory shot. Once the shot does its work, Ruiz is expected to return to the lineup.
While Ruiz is not the most recognizeable player on the team, losing him would create huge voids behind the plate in the No. 8 spot in the lineup.
"It was actually good news because there was no structural damage," general manager Ruben Amaro said, "which is good, because wrists are tricky."
Ruiz has drawn rave reviews from the Phillies for his work behind the plate, both in his defense and his handling of a pitching staff that has posted a 3.62 ERA since June 1. He has also contributed at the plate, hitting .253 with a .353 on base percentage after suffering through a dismal 2008 in which those respective figures were .219 and .320.
Ruiz suffered the injury in the second inning Friday night when he blocked the plate and tagged out Diaz.
Prior to that game in Atlanta, he was hitting .320 with a .410 on base percentage, four home runs, 19 RBI and 17 runs scored in 37 games.
Ruiz caught all 17 games during the Phillies' playoff run last season.
"We can't afford to lose anybody that plays that much," manager Charlie Manuel said. "We're losing one of our starters. That's tough. It's hard to lose guys like that. Your catcher is very important to you."
^
More updates:
1) Scott Eyre is available to pitch tonight and Manuel said he will not hesitate to use him.
2) Brett Myers is still scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday.
3) J.C. Romero will throw an inning in an instructional league game tomorrow.
4) Chan Ho Park is in Clearwater and could take fielding practice within the next "several days" (Amaro's words). After that, the team will make plans to get him on the mound.
A quick update on some things:
1) Brett Myers was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right latissimus dorsi (lat) muscle. He is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Tuesday, and the Phillies are hopeful he will be able to return to competition at some point after that.
2) Three positive reports today for three key relievers: Lefthander Scott Eyre threw a bullpen session and feels he is ready to return to action. Pitching coach Rich Dubee and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. both said the veteran was close to being ready to return. Lefthander J.C. Romero threw a 50-pitch bullpen session in Clearwater and could face hitters in the instructional league as soon as Thursday. Also, Chan Ho Park continues to progress faster than expected and could be ready to pitch sometime next week.
3) The Phillies beat the Marlins 9-3 in the first game of the doubleheader, lowering their magic number to five. Joe Blanton pitched seven scoreless innings.
Thanks to the Braves' beat-down of the Mets last night, the Phillies enter today's doubleheader against the Marlins with a magic number of six over both the Marlins and the Braves. That means they need a combination of six wins and Marlins losses to eliminate the Fish, and six wins and Braves losses to eliminate the Braves. Crunch those numbers, and they can clinch as soon as Thursday in Milwaukee, although it would require the Braves losing their last two games at Citi Field and the Phillies (87-61) sweeping this three-game set against Florida.
Every Phillies loss or Braves win moves the potential clinch-date back a day.
The earliest a Phillies team has clinched a division since the days of the 162-game schedule was 1976, when they clinched in their 155th game.
Thursday will be their 152nd game, Friday their 153rd, Saturday their 154th.
Other notes of interest for today:
1) Brett Myers is scheduled to be in Philadelphia, where team doctor Michael Ciccotti will examine his sore shoulder.
2) Because Cliff Lee threw just 52 pitches in a rain-shortened outing Sunday, there is a chance the Phillies bring him back earlier than Saturday, when his turn in the rotation arrives. If the Phillies decided to start him on Friday on normal rest, it would enable them to get Pedro Martinez another day to rebound from the still neck that knocked him from Saturday's game after just three innings.
3) Today's doubleheader starts at 4:10 p.m. Joe Blanton is pitching the first game, followed by Jamie Moyer in the nightcap.
4) Raul Ibanez enters today hitting .316 with a .381 on base percentage with four home runs, eight RBI and 16 strikeouts in 63 at-bats over his last 16 games. In his 27 previous games, Ibanez hit .177 with a .262 on base percentage with one home run, four RBI and 30 strikeouts in 96 at-bats (Aug. 1 through Sept. 3).
5) Carlos Ruiz was hopeful that he would be able to play today after sustaining a sprained wrist in Friday night's win over the Braves. If Ruiz is unable to go, it will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle the catching duties in tonight's doubleheader. I don't think there is any way Charlie Manuel asks Paul Bako to catch 18 consecutive innings. But it is also highly unlikely that he would send September call-up Paul Hoover out to catch Jamie Moyer, who uses a different set of signals than most pitchers. If Ruiz is unable to go, I'd look for Hoover to start the first game.
6) A topic of discussion amongst some writers the other night: Who is the one position player the Phillies can least afford to lose to injury? To me, the answer is Jimmy Rollins, given the three unique skill sets he brings to the field - a switch-hitting leadoff hitter playing a Gold Glove short stop -- as well as the options the Phillies have for replacing him. A close second in Chase Utley. Ryan Howard has been on fire the last couple of months, but Greg Dobbs provides a much more solid alternative at the plate and in the field than the Phillies could find for Rollins or Utley.
Things are getting mighty interesting in the National League. With the Dodgers' loss to the G-men yesterday, the Phillies are now just one game behind Los Angeles for the best record in the National League. St. Louis is in third place, two games behind the Dodgers, one behind the Phillies.
As most of you know, the No. 1 seed gets home field advantage throughout the playoffs and plays the Wild Card team in the first round. The No. 2 seed plays the No. 3 seed in the first round. But two teams from the same division cannot play in the first round, so if the No. 1 seed and the Wild Card team are in the same division, then the No. 1 seed plays the No. 3 seed and the No. 2 seed plays the Wild Card.
Here is how the top three teams stack up for the rest of the season:
Dodgers (88-60, 0 GB, 14 remaining)
Phillies (86-60, 1 GB, 16 remaining)
Cardinals (86-62, 2 GB, 14 remaining)
The Phillies have the tiebreaker over St. Louis, thanks to a 4-1 record in their season series. The Dodgers have the tiebreaker over the Phillies, thanks to their 4-3 record. So the Phillies need to win three more games than the Dodgers over these last 16 days, and need to win the same amount as the Cardinals.
9/19 PHI at ATL, LAD vs SFG, STL vs CHC
9/20 PHI at ATL, LAD vs SFG, STL vs CHC
9/21 PHI at OFF, LAD is OFF, STL at HOU
9/22 PHI at FLA, LAD at WAS, STL at HOU
PHI at FLA,
9/23 PHI at FLA, LAD at WAS, STL at HOU
9/24 PHI at MIL, LAD at WAS, STL is OFF
9/25 PHI at MIL, LAD at PIT, STL at COL
9/26 PHI at MIL, LAD at PIT, STL at COL
9/27 PHI at MIL, LAD at PIT, STL at COL
9/28 PHI vs HOU, LAD at PIT, STL is OFF
9/29 PHI vs HOU, LAD at SDP, STL at CIN
9/30 PHI vs HOU, LAD at SDP, STL at CIN
10/1 PHI vs HOU, LAD at SDP, STL at CIN
10/2 PHI vs FLA, LAD vs COL, STL vs MIL
10/3 PHI vs FLA, LAD vs COL, STL vs MIL
10/4 PHI vs FLA, LAD vs COL, STL vs MIL
Just a quick set-up for tonight's game before I run down to the clubhouse. . .
The Braves enter having won seven straight games, the longest streak in the majors. The Phillies enter having won five straight, the second-longest straight in the majors.
Tim Hudson is making his fourth start of the season since returning from elbow surgery.
J.A. Happ is making his first start since missing two starts with a rib cage injury.
Atlanta enters the night having won seven straight and eight of last nine since losing five straight (two to FLA, three to CIn) from Sept. 2-6
During seven-game win streak, Braves have scored 45 runs (6.5 r/g), 82 hits (11.7/g) against Houston, St. Louis and the Mets
The Phillies over last 7 (6-1): 34 runs (4.9 r/g) with 61 hits (8.7/g)
Phillies pitchers over last seven games: 2.71 ERA, 8.7 h/g, 46 SO, 13 BB, 1 HBP, 16 XBH
Braves pitchers over last seven games: 2.71 ERA, 9.4 h/g, 49 SO, 20 BB, 1 HBP, 11 XBH
Tonight will be an interesting start to a big series. More to come.
It had been a long day of treatment, rehabilitation and examination. And Chan Ho Park still had a team doctor to talk to.
As he limped to his locker tonight around 6 p.m., his right leg nearly immobilized by a tight elastic wrap, Park appeared as dazed as he was when his right hamstring popped the night before pitching against the visiting Nationals and he limped off the field.
“I just got an MRI,” Park said. “I’m waiting now to talk to the doctor. I don’t know what comes next.”
What comes next for Park is … nothing. He will be out 2 to 3 weeks, said assistant general manager Scott Proefrock. He will remain with the club as it travels the next few days then, as he heals, he will report to Clearwater to begin a rehab program the Phillies hope will make him available to return in time for the playoffs.
Proefrock said that Brett Myers’ arm is not fit enough to fill Park’s challenging role, though Myers, coming off hip surgery, could inherit Park's job if Myers rebounds from the lingering arm soreness. Park had a 2.52 earned-run average in 38 relief appearances this season and had allowed eight of 25 inherited runners to score.
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee said they will look to Tyler Walker to pitch the tough middle innings Park pitched so effectively since May, when he lost his starter’s job. Chad Durbin also will be given a shot in the next few weeks, Manuel said.
I have today off. I had big plans. Do some laundry. Pack for a 10-day road trip that begins with a morning flight to Atlanta tomorrow. Fill out the health care enrollment form that was due two days ago. But then e-mailer Bob Volkert decided to hit me up with a question:
When Jayson Werth hit his grand slam in the seventh inning last night, three men were on base: Raul Ibanez, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. All three of those men, plus Werth, have hit at least 30 home runs this season. So, Bob wondered, was this the first time in MLB history that one 30-home-run-hitter drove in three others with a grand slam?
Thanks to the wonderful folks at Baseball-Reference.com, who have made it their life's mission to catalog every inning, home run, and crotch grab (OK, they haven't gotten around to crotch grabs yet) in baseball history, answering Bob's question was possible.
So while my cold-water dark clothing sat idle in a laundry basket, I spent an hour combing through the 12 other teams in baseball history with four 30-home-run hitters.
The conclusion?
Bob was on to something. And now Jayson Werth has a place in MLB history: the first 30-home-run hitter to drive in three other 30 home-run hitters with a grand slam.
In 2006, the White Sox's Joe Crede hit one with Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye on base, but it was only his 14th home run of the season. In 2000, the Angels' Garrett Anderson hit his 10th with Mo Vaughn, Darrin Erstad and Tim Salmon on base. And in 2000, Toronto's Tony Batista hit his 14th with Raul Mondesi, Carlos Delgado and Brad Fullmer on base.
But, alas, Werth's grand slam was the first in major league history that came at a point in the season when all four players involved had already reached the 30 home-run plateau.
Was this little bit of information worth its own blog entry? Probably not. But 1/24th of my day off is now gone, so I damn well am going to get some play out of it.
But if useless trivia is not enough to satisfy you, here is how the Phillies rotation will set up for the rest of the season if they were to keep it in order:
9/17 vs. WAS - Cole Hamels (Five days rest)
9/18 at ATL - J.A. Happ (injury)
9/19 at ATL - Pedro Martinez (Five)
9/20 at ATL - Cliff Lee (Four)
9/21 at OFF - OFF DAY
9/22 at FLA (DH) - Blanton (Five)/Moyer (spot)
9./23 at FLA - Hamels (Five)
9/24 at MIL - Happ (Five)
9/25 at MIL - Martinez (Five)
9/26 at MIL - Lee (Five)
9/27 at MIL - Blanton (Four)
9/28 vs. HOU - Hamels (Four)
9/29 vs. HOU - Happ (Four)
9/30 vs. HOU - Martinez (Four)
10/1 vs. HOU - Lee (Four)
10/2 vs. FLA - Blanton (Four)
10/3 vs. FLA - Hamels (Four)
10/4 vs. FLA - Happ
10/5 vs. OFF - OFF DAY
10/6 vs. OFF - OFF DAY
10/7 vs. ??? - NLDS Game 1 (Cliff Lee, Five)
10/8 vs. ??? - NLDS Game 2 (Cole Hamels, Four)
10/9 vs. OFF - OFF DAY
10/10 vs. ?? - NLDS Game 3
10/11 vs. OFF - NLDS Game 4
10/12 vs. OFF - OFF DAY
10/13 vs. ?? - NLDS Game 5 (Hamels/Lee)
Just throwing this out there:
Cole Hamels/Cliff Lee on Four Days of Rest vs. Five Days of Rest:
Lee on Four Days in 09 (19): 2.98 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 3.39 K/BB
Lee on Five Days in 09 (10): 2.59 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 5.90 K/BB
Hamels on Four Days in 09 (14): 3.65 ERA, 1.229 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 4.93 K/BB
Hamels on Five Days in 09 (10): 4.14 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 4.21 K/BB
Lee on Four Days in 08 (15): 3.07 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 4.37 K/BB
Lee on Five Days in 08 (12): 2.48 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.57 K/BB
Hamels on Four Days in 08 (19): 2.68 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.83 K/BB
Hamels on Five Days in 08 (12): 4.03 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 3.58 K/BB
It was the last thing the Phillies bullpen needed, but they may have gotten it anyway in the seventh inning last night: after throwing a pitch that resulted in the final out of the frame, Chan Ho Park grabbed his hamstring and limped off the field.
Manager Charlie Manuel said after the Phillies' 6-1 win that Park, who said he felt the hamstring "pop", could be out for a significant stretch of time.
"He's probably going to down awhile," Manuel said.
Asked if the injury could jeopardize Park's availability for the playoffs, Manuel said "I don't know, we'll probably know more about it tomorrow. But yeah, he's out for ahwhile. I'm very concerned about him, because he pulled it pretty good."
Park has been a vital cog in the Phillies bullpen, going 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA and holding opposing batters to a .231 average since losing his spot in the rotation in May.
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Just a quick analysis:
If Park is down for an extended period of time, it could jeopardize the Phillies current closer-by-committee approach. Brett Myers can pitch multiple innings and brings a similar skill set to the table as Park. But if he is needed in the sixth or seventh innings, he might not be available to pitch the eighth. Lefthander J.C. Romero said today that he was thrilled with how he pitched in his bullpen session, and that he plans on being back with the team within the next week to 10 days. But even he admitted that he probably won't be throwing in the low-to-mid-90's, so the Phillies can't count on him being able to resume the eighth-inning duties that he once shared with Madson.
Manuel said after the game today that he was planning on using Lidge as closer today. That is interesting because the Nationals are the team that spelled the temporary end of his job as closer, loading the bases with one out on Sept. 8 and causing Manuel to switch to Madson.
But Park going down could change Myers' role, which would in turn change Madson and Lidge's role. The Phillies have plenty of right-handed options -- Tyler Walker and Clay Condrey have both shown the ability at times this season to shut down the seventh inning of a tight game.
Regardless, if Park is sidelined for a long stretch, the ripples will be felt throughout a bullpen that has been in flux all season.
Stay tuned, we should know more tomorrow.
