The line-ups for Game 1 have been posted. For the Phillies, Raul Ibanez will DH with Ben Francisco in left field.
Phillies
Yankees
^
The conventional wisdom holds that Game 1 of the World Series will feature less scoring than a convent. Lefties Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia have been the most dominant pitchers in the postseason, featuring ERAs well under 2.00 (and, in Lee's case, well under 1.00), and a willingness to challenge even the most fearsome of hitters.
Indeed, the stage could be set for an epic pitcher's duel. But a look at the numbers shows that both team's have had considerable success against the opposing starter, with the Yankees' projected line-up boasting a .280 career average off of Lee and the Phillies' projected line-up combining to hit .294 off of Sabathia (including the postseason).
C.C. Sabathia vs. Phillies hitters
Jimmy Rollins: 5/13, 4 XBH, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Shane Victorino: 5/9, 2 XBH, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB
Chase Utley: 0/5, 3 SO, 1 BB
Ryan Howard: 3/9, 1 XBH, 1 RBI, 4 SO
Jayson Werth: 2/8, 2 XBH, 3 SO
Raul Ibanez: 11/40, 5 XBH, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB, 10 SO
Pedro Feliz: 1/8, 1 XBH, 1 RBI, 3 SO
Carlos Ruiz: 2/5
Ben Francisco: 1/5, 1 XBH, 1 BB
TOTALS: 30/102 (.294), 19 XBH, 3 HR, 6 BB, 23 SO
Cliff Lee vs. Yankees hitters
Derek Jeter: 11/27, 3 XBH, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 3 SO
Johnny Damon: 2/22, 1 BB, 3 SO
Alex Rodriguez: 5/15, 2 XBH, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SO
Mark Teixeira: 9/23, 5 XBH, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SO
Jorge Posada: 6/21, 4 XBH, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SO
Hideki Matsui: 5/17, 2 XBH, 2 BB, 4 SO
Robinson Cano: 4/18, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 SO
Nick Swisher: 6/18, 2 XBH, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 4 SO
Melky Cabrera: 3/11, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SO
TOTALS: 51/182 (.280), 19 XBH, 6 HR, 14 BB, 24 SO
^
On paper, the Yankees would seem to have the edge in the bullpen. The Phillies don't have much experience against New York's young relief staff, while the Yankees have seen plenty of folks like Ryan Madson and Brett Myers and Chan Ho Park.
On the other edge of the sword, the Phillies have plenty of postseason experience in their relief corps.
Yankees relievers vs. Phillies hitters
Mariano Rivera
Rollins: 0/1
Victorino: 0/2
Utley: 0/1
Howard: 0/3
Werth: 0/1, 1 SO
Ibanez: 2/16, 2 BB, 5 SO
Feliz: 0/0
Ruiz: DNF
Francisco: 1/3, XBH
Stairs: 2/14, 4 SO
Dobbs: 1/3, 2 SO
Francisco: 1/3, 1 2B
Bako: 1/3
Joba Chamberlain
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 RBI
Stairs: 1/4, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SO
Francisco: 1/5, 1 RBI, 2 SO
Phil Hughes
Ibanez 2/2, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Stairs: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 SO
Francisco: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 SO
Bako: 0/2
LHP Phil Coke
Rollins 0/1
Utley: 1/1
Howard: 0/1
Werth: 0/1
Ibanez: 0/1
Francisco: 0/1
LHP Damaso Marte
Rollins: 2/7, 1 SO
Victorino: 0/1
Utley: 0/3, 2 SO
Howard: 0/3, 3 SO
Werth: 0/0
Ibanez: 4/16, 4 SO
Feliz: 0/1, 1 SO
Ruiz: DNF
Francisco: 1/1, 1 XBH
Stairs: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 SO
Dobbs: 0/0
Bako: 0/1, 1 SO
RHP Alfredo Aceves
Francisco: 1/1
RHP David Robertson
Francisco: 0/1, 1 BB
Stairs: 0/1, 1 SO
Phillies relievers vs. Yankees hitters
Brad Lidge
Jeter: 0/1
Damon: 0/1, 1 BB
Rodriguez: 2/3, 2 XBH, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SO
Teixeira: 1/10, 1 RBI, 6 SO
Posada: 0/1
Matsui: 0/2, 1 SO
Cano: 2/2
Swisher: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 SO
Cabrera: 2/2, 2 RBI
Hairston 0/1, 1 BB
Gardner: 0/1
Ryan Madson
Jeter: 0/1, 1 SO
Damon: 2/2
Rodriguez: 0/1
Teixeira: 0/3, 2 SO
Matsui: 0/1, 1 SO
Cano: 0/1
Swisher: 0/3, 2 SO
Cabrera: 0/1
Hairston: 1/4, 1 XBH, 1 SO
Gardner: 1/1, 1 XBH
Brett Myers
Jeter: 3/7, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SO
Damon: 4/18, 4 BB, 3 SO
Rodriguez: 3/6, 3 XBH, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SO
Teixeira: 2/8, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 4 SO
Matsui:1/4
Cano: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 SO
Swisher: 0/3, 1 SO
Cabrera: 1/7, 3 SO
Hairston: 0/6, 1 BB, 2 SO
LHP Scott Eyre
Jeter: 2/11, 2 XBH, 2 BB, 2 SO
Damon: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 SO
Rodriguez: 2/14, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 5 SO
Teixeira: 0/0
Posada: 2/11, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 3 SO
Hairston: 1/3, 1 XBH, 2 SO
Chan Ho Park
Jeter: 1/7, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 1 SO
Damon: 2/13, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 4 SO
Rodriguez: 2/5, 1 SO
Teixeira: 1/2
Matsui: 0/7, 1 BB, 3 SO
Cano: 2/4, 1 XBH, 1 RBI
Swisher: 0/5, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SO
Hairston: 3/8, 2 XBH, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Chad Durbin:
Derek Jeter: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 So
Damon: 2/16, 1 XBH, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SO
Rodriguez: 1/7, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SO
Teixeira: 1/1
Posada: 1/2, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Matsui: 1/3
Cano: 1/5, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Swisher: 1/1, 1 BB
Cabrera: 2/7, 1 SO
Hairston: 1/8, 1 XBH, 4 SO
Gardner: 1/1
Cervelli: 0/1
LHP J.A. Happ
Jeter: 1/3, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 So
Damon: 0/3, 1 SO
Rodriguez: 0/2
Teixeira: 2/3
Cano: 1/2, 1 XBH
Swisher: 0/2, 1 RBI
Cabrera: 0/1
Hairston: 1/3
Cervelli: 0/2
Joe Blanton
Jeter: 4/12, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB
Damon: 2/10, 1 XBH, 2 SO
Rodriguez: 4/7, 3 XBH, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 1 SO
Posada: 2/4, 1 XBH, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SO
Matsui: 1/7, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SO
Cano: 1/9, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Swisher: 1/3, 1 SO
Cabrera: 1/6, 1 RBI
After being left off the roster for the National League Championship Series, reliever Brett Myers is back on the roster for the World Series, the Phillies announced.
Miguel Cairo has been left off the roster after being added for the NLCS.
Myers, who missed a significant portion of the season following hip surgery, made one appearance in the division series against Colorado, walking two and hitting a batter in two-thirds of an inning.
Myers' addition gives the Phillies 12 pitchers and reduces the bench to five.
The rest of the roster will remain as it was for the NLCS.
More to come ...
Johnny Damon is hitting .238 this postseason. Mark Teixeira is hitting .205.
While we wait for the Phillies to meet with the media at 3:30, at which point we should have a better idea about their World Series roster, here's a look at how the Yankees line-up has broken down against left-handed and right-handed pitching, both during the regular season and the postseason.
Also included are each player's numbers from the last month of the regular season (including the first weekend in October).
1. Derek Jeter
Postseason: .297/.435, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 5 XBH, 5 SO, 9 BB, 9 RS, 0 SB
vs. Left: 4/10, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 XBH, 1 SO, 7 BB
vs. Right: 7/27, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 XBH, 4 SO, 2 BB
September: .340/.450, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 XBH, 22 SO, 19 BB
09 vs. Left: .395/.468, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 27 SO, 23 BB, 177 AB
09 vs. Right: .311/.381, 12 HR, 43 RBi, 63 SO, 49 BB, 457 AB
2. Johnny Damon
Postseason: .238/.273, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 XBH, 6 SO, 2 BB, 0 SB
vs. Left: 4/20, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 XBH, 2 SO, 1 BB
vs. Right: 6/22, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 XBH, 4 SO, 1 BB
September: .235/.347, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 4 XBH, 16 SO, 14 BB
09 vs. Left: .269/.332, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 38 SO, 16 BB, 171 AB
09 vs. Right: .288/.380, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 60 SO, 55 BB, 379 AB
3. Mark Teixeira
Postseason: .205/.273, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 XBH, 9 SO, 4 BB, 0 SB
vs. Left: 5/19, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 XBH, 4 SO, 1 BB
vs. Right: 3/20, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 XBH, 5 SO, 2 BB
September: .343/.395, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 18 XBH, 23 SO, 8 BB
09 vs. Left: .305/.400, 9 HR, 31 RBI, 26 SO, 25 BB, 174 AB
09 vs. Right: .287/.376, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 88 SO, 56 BB, 435 AB
4. Alex Rodriguez
Postseason: .438/.538, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 7 XBH, 5 SO, 9 BB, 1 SB
vs. Left: 4/9, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 XBH, 1 SO, 6 BB
vs. Right: 10/23, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 6 XBH, 4 SO, 3 BB
September: .337/.396, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 10 XBH, 19 SO, 10 BB
09 vs. Left: .277/.401, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 30 SO, 25 BB, 119 AB
09 vs. Right: .289/.402, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 67 SO, 55 BB, 325 AB
5. Hideki Matsui
Postseason: .233/.395, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 XBH, 7 SO, 8 BB, 0 SB
vs. Left: 2/14, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 XBH, 2 SO, 2 BB
vs. Right: 5/16, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 XBH, 5 SO, 6 BB
September: .325/.426, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 XBH, 13 SO, 14 BB
09 vs. Left: .282/.358, 13 HR, 46 RBI, 24 SO, 15 BB, 131 AB
09 vs. Right: .271/.370, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 51 SO, 49 BB, 325 AB
6. Jorge Posada
Postseason: .258/.361, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 XBH, 7 SO, 5 BB, 0 SB
vs. Left: 2/9, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 XBH, 2 SO, 1 BB
vs. Right: 6/22, 2 HR, 3 RBi, 2 XBH, 5 SO, 4 BB
September: .339/.435, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 8 XBH, 17 SO, 10 BB
09 vs. Left: .290/.360, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 42 SO, 13 BB, 124 AB
09 vs. Right: .282/.365, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 59 SO, 35 BB, 259 AB
7. Robinson Cano
Postseason: .229/.341, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 3 XBH, 4 SO, 4 BB, 0 SB
vs. Left: 4/14, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 XBH, 2 SO, 1 BB
vs. Right: 4/21, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 XBH, 2 SO, 3 BB
September: .350/.391, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 13 XBH, 15 SO, 7 BB
09 vs. Left: .309/.335, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 33 SO, 9 BB, 220 AB
09 vs. Right: .326/.360, 15 HR, 53 RBI, 30 SO, 21 BB, 417 AB
8. Nick Swisher
Postseason: .125/.222, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 XBH, 11 SO, 3 BB, 0 SB
vs. Left: 3/13, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 XBH, 2 SO, 2 BB
vs. Right: 1/19, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 XBH, 9 SO, 1 BB
September: .261/.369, 7 HR, 12 RBI, 14 XBH, 19 SO, 15 BB
09 vs. left: .244/.393, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 34 SO, 41 BB, 160 AB
09 vs. Right: .251/.359, 20 HR, 52 RBI, 92 SO, 56 BB, 338 AB
9. Melky Cabrera
Postseason: .314/.368, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 2 XBH, 11 SO, 3 BB, 0 SB
vs. Left: 6/14, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 XBH, 4 SO, 0 BB
vs. Right: 5/21, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 XBH, 7 SO, 3 BB
September: .287/.361, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 7 XBH, 8 SO, 7 BB
09 vs. Left: .268/.343, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 16 SO, 15 BB, 157 AB
09 vs. Right: .277/.332, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 43 SO, 28 BB, 328 AB
Bench - Postseason statistics
Brett Gardner (L): 2/3, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 RS, 0 XBH, 0 SO, 0 BB, 1 SB
Jerry Hairston Jr. (R): 1/2, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 XBH, 1 SO, 0 BB, 0 SB
Jose Molina (R): 1/4, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 XBH, 1 SO, 0 BB
Freddy Guzman (S): 0/1, 1 SO
Eric Hinske (L): 0/0
Say this for Charlie Manuel:
The World Series hasn't even started yet, and he is already making the type of brazen moves that have marked the first couple of rounds of the playoffs. In starting Pedro Martinez in Game 2 -- a move he announced earlier this morning on his weekly radio appearance in Philadelphia -- he is taking a huge risk. Martinez has never started in the new Yankee Stadium. He has never faced this new Yankees team. He will be pitching in weather that is more than 20 degrees cooler than he faced in his only other start of the postseason.
And Cole Hamels?
Say what you will about his struggles this season, he is still the defending World Series MVP, and he has still shown the ability to dominate at times. The easy call for Manuel would have been to cross his fingers and send Hamels out for Game 2. If he falters? Well, that's on him. But now, if Pedro Martinez stumbles in Game 2 and Hamels thrives in Game 3, the Phillies won't be able to pitch Hamels again until Game 7. And they could be forced into a situation where they bring Cliff Lee back on short rest.
But like most of Manuel's moves, this one has firm roots in logic. The Phillies' likely thinking? Trust -- Martinez has built it this season and throughout his career. Hamels has eroded it with both his performance and his body language on the mound. At the first hint of trouble, lefthander J.A. Happ and righthander Joe Blanton will be ready to fill in for Martinez. And if things really implode, Cliff Lee coming back on short rest for Game 4 is an option, giving Blanton or Happ an extra day to prepare for action in Games 5 and 6.
But the Phillies also could be hedging their bet. If Hamels pitches well in Game 3, they could have the option of bringing him back on short rest for Game 6. But if Martinez pitched well in Game 3, he likely still would have to wait until Game 7 to return to the mound. If both pitch well, the discussion is meaningless. Same goes for both struggling.
As I'm sure Manuel will explain to us later today, this was not an easy decision. The cases for Pedro and against Pedro were equally compelling.
Here is a look at some of the things the Phillies likely considered:
I. The case for Pedro
1) Martinez threw seven scoreless innings in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Dodgers, his only postseason start this season.
2) Cole Hamels has allowed nine hits and three home runs in 15 postseason at-bats against left-handed hitters, not a good omen at Yankee Stadium and its notoriously short right field fence.
3) Hamels hasn't lasted longer than 5 1/3 innings in any of his three postseason starts, and has allowed at least three runs in all three of them.
4) Pitching Martinez in Game 2 will take some pressure off of Hamels, who admitted earlier in this season that he was expecting too much out of himself. Hamels has never pitched a postseason game when trailing in a series, something that could very well happen in the World Series with the Phillies due to face C.C. Sabathia in Game 1.
5) Martinez has displayed the willingness and ability to pitch on both sides of the plate, something that is imperative against a Yankees line-up that needs to be taken out of its comfort zone. Martinez has shown a better ability to pitch a guy like Alex Rodriguez inside, while avoiding the type of mistake that would result in a home run flying out of Yankee Stadium.
6) Martinez has two breaking pitches to supplement his change-up, and has shown a willingness and ability to throw his curveball at any point in the count, which puts him in a position to limit left-handed sluggers like Mark Texeira and Hideki Matsui. Hamels' curve ball is more an accessory than a true out pitch.
7) Starting Martinez will give the Phillies a more balanced rotation. Starting Lee and Hamels in Games 1 and 2 would not only give their opponent back-to-back games against lefty starters, it would open the possibility of throwing lefty starters in Games 4, 5 and 6, should Manuel elect to give rookie J.A. Happ the start in Game 4. New York faced lefthanded starters in back-to-back games 13 times this season, and in three straight games four times. In those instances, when facing a lefty starter for the first time, the Yankees scored 72 runs while hitting .278 and drawing 49 walks. The second day, they scored 74 runs while hitting .303 and drawing 59 walks. And in the four times they played a third straight game against a lefty starter, they scored 26 runs while hitting .327 and drawing 23 walks.
8) Hamels is better suited to start a game on short rest. Although he has not done so in his career, he said earlier this postseason he felt he would be able to. If Martinez falters in Game 2 and Hamels thrives in Game 3, the Phillies could decide to start Hamels in Game 6 on short rest. But if Hamels faltered in Game 2 and Martinez thrived in Game 3, the Phillies would be forced to wait for a potential Game 7 to call on Martinez again.
9) If Martinez struggles early, the Phillies could call on J.A. Happ for long relief, giving the Yankees a much different look. They also have Joe Blanton available to step in.
10) Martinez currently owns a 14-inning consecutive scoreless innings streak in the postseason (Mariano Rivera holds the postseason record with 33 1/3).
11) He has started five postseason games against the Yankees, two in the Bronx, and has lasted six innings in all five. In 14 overall postseason appearances, he is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA.
II. The case against Pedro
1) His seven scoreless innings came in a pitcher's park, in beautiful weather (mid-80's and sunny), on a day where neither team managed to hit the ball.
2) Lefties hit .276 with 12 extra base hits against him during the regular season. Five of the seven home runs he allowed were hit by lefties.
3) Martinez hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in a start since Sept. 13.
4) Relegating Hamels to Game 3 could destroy whatever amount of his confidence remains after a shaky regular season and postseason.
5) Martinez went 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in five regular season starts at Citizens Bank Park, compared with 3-1 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts on the road. Now, he is lined up for two starts on the road.
6) Before his NLCS outing against the Dodgers, Martinez's last postseason experience came in 2004, back when he was still in his prime.
7) In his five postseason starts against the Yankees, he has a 4.27 ERA, not including a relief appearance in which he allowed two runs in one inning. And all five of those starts came when he was in his prime.
8) Regardless of Hamels struggles, he has dominated at times this season. And the Phillies best chance for winning this series could lie in him re-capturing that magic. After allowing 17 runs in 21 1/3 innings in his first four starts of August, Hamels pitched eight scoreless innings against the Pirates. Five days after allowing six runs in six innings against the Nationals on May 30, he pitched a five-hit shutout against the Dodgers. And, of course, there was his start at Yankee Stadium on May 24, when he allowed two runs on eight hits in six innings of the Phillies' 4-3 win.
9) Hamels performed well against the Yankee in May, allowing three runs in six innings.
10) If the Phillies elect to start Cliff Lee in Games 4 and 7 on three days rest, Hamels might only get one start this World Series. Then again, depending on your perspective, that could be considered a positive.
^
The Yankees have yet to announce their rotation. But C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have both had success pitching on short rest in their careers. The Phillies have also said that they would be willing to pitch Cliff Lee on three days rest. I don't expect them to announce their intention to do so - or not do so - until after the first couple games of the series. Here is a look at two potential pitching match-ups, one with Cliff Lee on short rest and one without:
Match-ups, Without Lee on Short Rest
Game 1 - LHP Cliff Lee at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Game 2 - RHP Pedro Martinez at RHP A.J. Burnett
Game 3 - LHP Andy Pettitte at LHP Cole Hamels
Game 4 - LHP C.C. Sabathia at RHP Joe Blanton
Game 5 - RHP A.J. Burnett at LHP Cliff Lee
Game 6 - RHP Pedro Martinez at LHP Andy Pettitte/RHP Chad Gaudin
Game 7 - LHP Cole Hamels at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Match-ups, With Lee on Short Rest
Game 1 - LHP Cliff Lee at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Game 2 - RHP Pedro Martinez at RHP A.J. Burnett
Game 3 - LHP Andy Pettitte at LHP Cole Hamels
Game 4 - LHP C.C. Sabathia at LHP Cliff Lee
Game 5 - RHP A.J. Burnett at RHP Joe Blanton
Game 6 - RHP Pedro Martinez at LHP Andy Pettitte/RHP Chad Gaudin
Game 7 - LHP Cliff Lee at LHP C.C. Sabathia
Even the most concrete answer that Charlie Manuel provided today isn't entirely clear.
When asked about rookie lefthander Antonio Bastardo and his chances of making the World Series roster, Manuel started by saying, "He's on our roster." But it isn't clear if he meant that he is on the roster for the World Series, or just on the current active roster, which is the one that remains from the NLCS. Because just a few minutes before, Manuel said that he wasn't ready to name which players would make the roster, or how the Phillies planned on setting up their rotation.
So we'll start with Bastardo, whom I have floated as a possible exclusion from the World Series roster in order to make room for righthander Brett Myers, and we'll work backwards from there. Bastardo has faced just two batters in the postseason, retiring Jason Giambi in a big spot in the NLDS, and allowing a double to Andre Ethier in the seventh inning of Game 1 of the NLCS. But Manuel certainly talked like Bastard would be on the roster for the World Series.
"He's on our roster," Manuel said. "I'll use him. We'll definitely put him in the game. It's not like we don't want to use him but I don't know how long he can stay out there, because he is a young kid and he doesn't have experience and he is subject to make mistakes and his big need right now is to pitch and get confident and also get adjusted to the major leagues. He's definitely got the stuff to get people out. Like he came in against Giambi the other day and he threw a real good fastball and a couple real good sliders and he got him out. And basically when we put him in the game, that right there is what we'll look for too."
If Bastardo is on the roster, then the only way for the Phillies to make room for Myers is to add a 12th pitcher, thereby subtracting either Eric Bruntlett or Miguel Cairo. Bruntlett was left off the NLDS roster, but participated in the NLCS. Cairo, a former Yankee who was on the team that blew a 3-0 ALCS lead to the Red Sox in 2004, has been on the roster for both rounds. He went 0-for-2 as a pinch-hitter in the NLCS, with Bruntlett being used as the go-to pinch-runner.
Might the Phillies go back to five bench players, given the fact that they likely won't need many pinch-hitters in four of the seven games, thanks to the DH?
A lot depends on how the Phillies feel Myers can contribute. He looked sharp in one inning of a simulated game yesterday, striking out Greg Dobbs and Ryan Howard on crisp breaking balls. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was complimentary of the way he progressed a few days ago, and Manuel echoed those sentiments yesterday. Myers impressed the team by returning from early-June hip surgery in time to contribute out of the bullpen in September. But he was sidelined by a lat strain and hasn't looked the same since. He allowed two walks and hit a batter in his one NLDS appearance, then was left off the roster for the NLCS.
Myers faced the Yankees in May, pitching eight strong innings in the Bronx.
"He's throwing the ball better," Manuel said. "He's definitely gotten better, as a matter of fact, it looks like he's probably well or close to being healed or well. We'll have a meeting today and we'll have a meeting in the morning and we'll make sure that we try to get our roster right. I'm not willing to sit here and tell you who is on our roster right yet, and who's going to pitch where. We've got an idea, but I don't want to reveal it yet."
And what about the rotation?
Cliff Lee will start in Game 1, but Manuel again declined to name a Game 2 starter. He said that he has meetings scheduled this afternoon and tomorrow morning, during which the Phillies will hash out their roster. They'll consider everything -- the fact that Martinez is undefeated in five starts at Citizens Bank Park with an ERA under 2, the fact that Martinez has faced the Yankees before in the playoffs at Yankee Stadium, the fact that Cole Hamels has struggled this postseason against left-handed hitters, who are 9-for-15 with three home runs off of him, not a good sign with the way the ball carries over the right field fence at the new Yankee Stadium.
As far as Martinez is concerned, Manuel said he does not think it matters where the veteran righthander pitches.
"We try to weigh everything possible in," Manuel said. "I guess that's a good part about my job, I've got quite a few people around that we discuss everything about the game. We discuss everything you are supposed to cover. There's not a whole lot there that we are going to miss as far as what we want to do. But I look at Pedro, Pedro's been in the big environment. He's pitched just about everywhere you can pitch, and I don't think nothing's going to bother him or get him upset. I think we can pitch him in either ballpark, really. I don't think it matters at all."
Might lefty J.A. Happ, who has looked rusty as a situational reliever, get another start? Manuel did not rule it out, and said he think Happ is still stretched out enough to throw 90 to 100 pitches in a game. Will they change how they use Happ, since he has allowed four of the six batters he has faced as a reliever to reach base?
"He'll be a guy that we talk about today and tomorrow in our meetings and stuff and we'll decide what we are going to do with him," Manuel said. "Being left-handed and stuff like that, he could play a part in our bullpen, but he also could start. I think that bringing him in out of the bullpen sometimes, I think what happens is, I brought him in a couple times in situations in the game where he wasn't going to pitch as long. So I don't think he got to stay out there to see exactly what he can do. But at the same time, we're in a position where we're going to win games. J.A. Happ's going to pitch in the big leagues a long time. he's a good pitcher. he's going to be in a rotation on a regular basis in the major leagues, but at the same time, right now, we'll decide on what we are going to do with him and how we are going to use him. I think a short series, things like that, all of that determines, and also what kind of wagers in on our bullpen pitching."
^
One final note: Manuel said that Raul Ibanez would likely DH against left-handed starters, which would enable the Phillies to start the right-handed hitting Ben Francisco in left field. Manuel said he is undecided on how he will handle games against righties (as of right now, A.J. Burnett is the only righthander to start a game for the Yankees this postseason. See the previous post for a breakdown of that situation).
As first reported by MLB.com early Sunday morning, the Yankees have defeated the Angels for the right to face the Phillies in the World Series. There is no cheering in the press box, but there was plenty of it in my living room, where mental preparations were being made for a cross-country flight to southern California early Tuesday morning. The sentiment, I'm sure, is shared by the majority of the Phillies organization. An Amtrak charter is a hell of a lot more convenient than a plane.
But while the Yankees victory over the Angels was a victory in terms of travel logistics, it also sets the stage for one of the most intriguing World Series in quite some time. You want hype? How about two of the top five television markets in the country squaring off? You want stars? How about four of the last eight regular season MVP winners on the field? You want a pitching duel? How about a pair of Game 1 starters whose ERAs are barely over the legal limit (OK, that's an exageration)?
I've used the word several times over the last couple days to describe a potential Phillies-Yanks World Series: Spectacle.
Of course, in the end, the game is the thing. So we're going to spend the next day or two breaking down this match-up, while also keeping you up to date as the Phillies shape their roster and their rotation.
Speaking of rotations. . .
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Three Questions: The Yankees Rotation
1. How will Joe Girardi will set up his rotation?
Lefty C.C. Sabathia will face former teammate Cliff Lee in Game 1. And A.J. Burnett will almost certainly pitch in Game 2. But the big question involves when Girardi will give both pitchers their next start.
In the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Yankees were aided by an extra off day, which enabled them to go with a three-man rotation while pitching only Sabathia on three days rest, and only once. In the World Series, however, the extra off day is eliminated. So if the Yankees bring Sabathia back for Game 4 on short rest, they would likely have to do the same with Burnett in Game 5.
Advantage, Phillies?
Not so fast.
Burnett has started four games in his career on three days rest and is 4-0 with a 2.33 ERA, allowing 19 hits and two home runs while striking out 24 and walking 10 in 27 innings.
During the regular season, Sabathia is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA in four starts on short rest. His most recent postseason start came on three days rest, when he allowed one run on five hits against the Angels in a 10-1 win in Game 4 of the ALCS on Oct. 20.
So there is a strong possibility that the Phillies will face Sabathia or Burnett in four of the first five games of the World Series, with Andy Pettitte starting Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park.
The good news is that they faced all three pitchers during a May series at Yankee Stadium, when they came a Brad Lidge blown save away from a sweep.
2. Why is Sabathia such a force?
Like last year's NLDS against the Brewers, the Phillies' fate will likely lie in their ability to scratch together enough offense against Sabathia to support whoever is facing him on a given day. While it is possible we see three Lee-Sabathia match-ups, the Phillies sound hesitant about sending Lee out on three days rest, something he has never done before. So there is a chance Sabathia could face three different starting pitchers if this series goes seven games.
Here is what the Phillies will be dealing with in Sabathia:
3. How have the Phillies fared against the Yankees' triumverate of starters?
Games 1/4: C.C Sabathia
at Citizens Bank Park: Sabathia's only career start in Philly came in Game 2 of the NLDS last year, when the Phillies beat him 5-2. The game had two highlights, one of which led to the other: After Pedro Feliz's one-out double tied the game at 1-1, Brett Myers drew a nine-pitch two-out walk, which was followed by a Rollins walk to load the bases. Shane Victorino then hit a 1-2 pitch for a grand slam that seized control of the game. Sabathia lasted just 3 2/3 innings, allowing five runs on six hits. The good news? Myers might be on the postseason roster. The bad news? He almost certainly will not face Sabathia. The worse news? Sabathia was pitching his fourth straight game on three days rest at the time.
Career vs. Phillies: 3 GS, 1-1, 4.35 ERA (10 ER in 20.2 IP, 1 HR)
Last outing vs. Phillies: 5/24/09, at NYY, L 4-3, 8 IP, 9 H, 3 R/ER, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR
The Phillies rallied with two outs in the third, getting a single from Carlos Ruiz, an RBI double from Jimmy Rollins, and an RBI single from Shane Victorino. Their other run came in the sixth, when Raul Ibanez hit a no-out RBI double that drove home Victorino from first. Sabathia was making his fourth straight start on short rest.
Games 2/5: A.J. Burnett
at Citizens Bank Park: 6 GS, 2-3, 5.04 ERA, 5 HR in 30 1/3 IP.
Career vs. Phillies: 17 G, 16 GS, 5-8, 4.75 ERA
Last outing vs. Phillies: 5/22/09, L 7-3, 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R/ER, 2 BB, 7 SO, 3 HR
Burnett has had mixed results against the Phillies. In his last start at Citizens Bank Park, he held them to two runs on four hits in 6.1 innings of 6-3 win while a member of the Blue Jays last May. But at Yankee Stadium this May, the Phillies hit three home runs off of him en route to a 7-3 win. Jimmy Rollins led off with a home run in the first inning, Carlos Ruiz hit a two-run home run in the second, and Jayson Werth hit a two-run home run in the fifth inning. Shane Victorino also tripled off of Burnett.
Game 3: Andy Pettitte
at Citizens Bank Park: 2 GS, 1-0, 0.75 ERA (1 ER in 12 IP)
Career vs. Phillies: 7 GS, 2-2, 3.67 ERA
Last outing vs. Phillies: 5/23/09 at NYY, W 5-4, 7 IP, 5 H, 4 R/ER, 2 HR, 5 SO, 2 BB
John Mayberry's three-run home run in the fifth and Raul Ibanez's solo shot in the second were the extent of the Phillies' offense against Pettitte. The Phillies took a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth, where Brad Lidge allowed three runs for the blown save.
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We'll have much more throughout the day, including a breakdown of the Yankees' vaunted line-up, and our projection of the Phillies rotation, which, after further review, has changed since we appeared on Comcast Sports Net's playoff preview show last night. I, like Fergie, gotta feeling, that Pedro Martinez is going to pitch Game 2.
Charlie Manuel is scheduled to meet the media at noon, when he is expected to regale the press corps with a story about the time when he was managing rookie ball and the team bus broke down and he used a 38-ounce Louisville Slugger to fix the spark plugs.
Mazal Tov!
It's a picturesque autumn day here at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies have just begun their workout. They'll play a simulated game, during which Pedro Martinez is expected to be among the pitchers throwing. When he will throw in an actual World Series game, however, remains to be seen.
Charlie Manuel stated the obvious today, saying Cliff Lee will indeed start Game 1 on Wednesday against either the Yankees or the Angels. But Manuel did not commit to a Game 2 starter. When asked if he could see himself starting somebody other than Cole Hamels in the second game, he replied, "I'm not ready to answer that yet."
Hamels has had a rough go of it thus far this postseason. He hasn't completed six innings in any of his three starts and in Game 5 of the NLCS allowed three solo home runs while throwing 94 pitches in 4 1/3 innings. Hamels has allowed 11 runs, 20 hits, and six home runs in 14 2/3 innings.
But Hamels did pitch well at Yankee Stadium this May, allowing two runs on eight hits and one home run in six innings of a 4-3 Phillies win.
Particularly confoudning has been Hamels' struggles against left-handed hitters. Lefties are 9-for-15 with three home runs and two walks and just two strikeouts off of Hamels. Righties are 11-for-47 with three home runs, 10 strikeouts and no walks.
I still expect Hamels to start Game 2. Martinez's appearance in the simulated game today is a good indication the Phillies are lining him up to start Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park, where he has pitched very well since signing with the Phillies in June. Although a lot depends on how many pitches Martinez throws today, pitching him today would make sense in setting him up for a start in Game 3 on Saturday, when he would be on five days rest after today's sim game.
Right now, the Phillies are in evaluation mode. Ruben Amaro Jr. admitted the obvious yesterday, that he and the rest of the decision-makers in the front office and on the coaching staff will not be able to make any final roster or rotation decisions until the conclusion of the American League Championship Series. Throughout the weekend, we'll break down some of the unresolved situations they will be pondering. There are several significant decisions: Who will start Game 2 -- Cole Hamels or Pedro Martinez? Might Cliff Lee pitch on three days rest? Keep 12 pitchers or 11? Eric Bruntlett or Miguel Cairo or both?
First, though, here's an under-the-radar decision that could affect the final roster spot: Should Antonio Bastardo remain on the team?
The logic in keeping the rookie lefthander around for the first couple rounds was obvious: With Scott Eyre pitching with a loose body in his elbow, the Phillies only veteran southpaw in the bullpen was somewhat of a question mark. The Phillies faced a left-handed-heavy Rockies team, and a Dodgers squad that featured dangerous left-handed sluggers like Andre Ethier, James Loney and two lefties on the bench in Juan Pierre and Jim Thome.
But in the first two rounds of the playoffs, Bastardo faced just two batters. He struck out one -- Jason Giambi in Colorado -- and allowed a hit to the other. Eyre, meanwhile, has shown no ill effects from his injury.
If the Phillies truly believe Brett Myers is in a position to help the team -- Amaro said yesterday Myers' stuff has looked much crisper than it did in the NLDS, when he allowed two walks and hit a batter in his only appearance -- they will find a way to put him on the roster. Amaro said yesterday the inclusion of Myers could boil down to whether the Phillies keep 11 or 12 pitchers -- If they go with 12, as they did in the NLDS, Myers would be the logical 12th man.
But what if they want to keep both Miguel Cairo, whose NLCS experience was limited to a pair of pinch-hit at-bats, and Eric Bruntlett, who showed his value as a pinch runner?
Is it worth keeping Bastardo around?
On paper, the Yankees don't have the type of vulnerable left-handed slugger to match-up situationally with Bastardo. Hideki Matsui has hit better against lefties than righties in each of the last two seasons, and this year has 13 home runs in 131 at-bats against lefties. Mark Texeira has shown more power from the left side of the plate, but is equally dangerous from the righ side, as evidenced by his at-bat against Darren Oliver in Game 4 of the ALCS (Just ask John Lackey).
Johnny Damon hits righties better than lefties. And while Robinson Cano hit .326 with 15 home runs in 417 ABs vs. righties this season, he hit .306 with 10 home runs in 220 ABs vs. lefties.
But the biggest question: Does Charlie Manuel have enough faith in Bastardo to send him into a big moment in the World Series against the best-hitting team in baseball? And if he doesn't, would the Phillies be better suited keeping an experienced arm on the roster -- whether it be Myers, Clay Condrey or Tyler Walker -- even if that arm is a right-handed one?
Granted, this is assuming the Yankees win tonight or, if weather affects the start, tomorrow.
But even if the Angels are the opponent, if the Phillies' plan is to keep J.A. Happ available in the bullpen, which Manuel said it was, at least for the first few games, what chance would a third lefthander, one who has faced just two batters this postseason, have of getting into a game?
It's something to think about. . .
Quick, which Phillies pitcher is tied with Cliff Lee for the team lead in victories this postseason?
It isn't Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Pedro Martinez or Joe Blanton, who represented the other 4/5ths of the Phillies rotation for the last two months of the regular season.
Here's a hint: The same guy is the only Phillies pitcher not to allow a baserunner this postseason.
It isn't Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson or Scott Eyre, the team's top three relievers during the 2009 campaign.
Nope, the player we're looking for is none other than Chad Durbin, the veteran righthander who appeared in five of the Phillies' nine NLDS and NLCS games, pitching four scoreless innings in the process. Over the next week, you will read plenty of stories previewing the Phillies' second straight World Series appearance, and you will read plenty of analysis detailing through the NLDS and the NLCS. You will read about players like Ryan Howard, who hit .355 with two home runs, seven extra base hits and 14 RBI in the first nine games of the postseason. You will read about Carlos Ruiz, Senor Octubre, who hit .346 with seven RBI and reached base in half of his plate appearances. You will read about Jayson Werth (five home runs), and Cliff Lee (2-0, 0.74 ERA in three starts) and Brad Lidge (3-for-3 in save opportunities, four scoreless innings).
But if you are looking for the unlikeliest hero of an unlikely bunch, what better place to start than a middle reliever who finished the month of August with a 5.17 ERA?
After he signed with the Phillies prior to the 2008 season, Durbin quickly became one of the stalwarts in the team's rejuvenated bullpen. He finished among the league leaders in innings pitched (87 2/3) and ERA (2.87) while providing the always-critical bridge to the eighth and ninth innings. But thanks to a combination of circumstances, Durbin entered this September facing a tenuous playoff future. He was sidelined for 19 days in late July and early August with a lat strain after spending much of the first three months of the season struggling with his command. In August, Durbin allowed six runs on six hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings pitched, with players like Tyler Walker and Chan Ho Park assuming more of the duties that he held last season.
But once August turned to September, Durbin thrived. He allowed just three earned runs in 15 2/3 innings during the final month of the season. And this October, he has been even better. Even during his successful September, Durbin walked 11 batters. This postseason, he hasn't walked one. In Game 3 of the NLDS< he inherited a 5-5 tie in the eighth inning and coaxed Garrett Atkins, Ryan Spilborghs and Clint Barmes into three straight weak groundouts, setting the stage for Howard's game-winning sacrifice fly in the ninth.
In Game 1 of the NLCS, he recorded just one out, but it was a big one -- a line-out by Russell Martin with men on first and second and one out in the sixth. But perhaps his biggest contribution came on Wednesday night, when he entered the game with two out and men on first and second in a game the Phillies led 6-3. At the plate was slugger Manny Ramirez, representing the tying run. Durbin attacked Ramirez inside, throwing four five pitches, the last of which the Dodgers' star nubbed weakly to the right of the pitchers mound. Durbin calmly picked it up and threw to first for the final out, than retired three dangerous hitters in the top of the sixth -- Matt Kemp on a strikeout, James Loney on a groundout, and Russell Martin on a groundout -- to quell the Dodgers' thoughts of a rally.
Will Durbin ever win a postseason MVP? No. Will his exploits overshadow those of Lee or Howard or Werth? No.
But in 11 postseason games over the last two seasons, Durbin has allowed just two runs, one of them earned. A bullpen that was supposed to be the Achilles heel of this Phillies team has suddenly established itself as one of the best of the 2009 postseason. And ever-so-slowly, things are getting back to where they were in October of last season. Yesterday, the bullpen allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings of relief. It started with Durbin and lefthander J.A. Happ and ended with Ryan Madson and Lidge.
And of all the positives the Phillies can take out of the first two rounds of the playoffs, the performance of Durbin and his colleagues just might be the most promising.