IS LEARNING THE PRINCETON OFFENSE
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins and centerfield Shane Victorino again took home National League Gold Glove awards today.
Rollins won for the third consecutive year and had a .990 fielding percentage, the best in the major leagues at his position. He committed a league-best and career-low six errors in 607 total chances. Among all NL shortstops in 2009, Rollins ranked second in games (152) and innings (1364.2), fourth in putouts (212), sixth in total chances and assists (389) and eighth in double plays (72).
Rollins becomes the fifth Phillie to win at least three Gold Gloves, joining Mike Schmidt (10), Garry Maddox (8), Manny Trillo (3) and Rolen (3). Last season, Rollins was the first Phillies shortstop to win the award in consecutive seasons (2007-09) and the first Phillie to do so since Scott Rolen (2000-01). The last NL player to win three straight Gold Gloves at shortstop was Rey Ordonez, of the New York Mets (1997-99).
“I would like to thank the managers and coaches who felt I was worthy of a Gold Glove Award,” Rollins said in a statement. “Defense is a very important part of my game and it truly is an honor to be recognized as one of the best defensive players in the league.”
Victorino won his second consecutive Gold Glove. He made one error in 345 chances for a fielding percentage of .997. Last year, he made two errors in 323 chances.
He started a career-high 149 games in centerfield for the Phillies and led all NL centerfielders in fielding percentage, was second in games and innings (1330.1), fourth in both total chances and putouts (336) and was tied for fifth in assists (8). Victorino is the first Phillies outfielder to win the award in consecutive seasons since Maddox, who did so in eight straight seasons (1975-82).
“I take a lot of pride in fielding my position so it is an honor to be awarded with another Gold Glove this season,” Victorino said in a statement. “I would like to thank the managers and coaches who voted for me and who believe that I am one of the best in a league full of outstanding players.”
This is the 11th time in franchise history the Phillies have had multiple Gold Glove winners. It is the third straight year that the Phillies have had multiple winners (2007: Rollins and Aaron Rowand and 2008-09: Rollins and Victorino).
The list of winners:
First base: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego
Second base: Orlando Hudson, Los Angeles
Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
Third base: Ryan Zimmerman, Washington
Outfielders: Shane Victorino, Phillies; Michael Bourn, Houston; Matt Kemp, Los Angeles
Catcher: Yadier Molina, St. Louis
Pitcher: Adam Wainright, St. Louis
Got a text from a friend last night. Told her I was in Chicago. She said "awesome." And I really can't blame her. Chicago, after all, is awesome. Belushi, Second City, Oprah, the Lake, every good-looking Midwestern girl who wasn't content to settle down with her high school sweetheart in Fort Wayne. All of that is awesome.
The O'Hare Hilton, however, is not awesome. In fact, it's the opposite of awesome, unless your idea of awesome is Tom Hanks in "The Terminal." Because that is what these GM meetings are like. The hotel is inside the airport. My hotel room overlooks a runway, where at the moment I am staring longingly at a plane taking off and fantasizing about the happy little lives of all the people inside. I'm not sure if the little bottles of shampoo in my bathroom are there because that is what all hotels use, or because they couldn't get the big ones through security.
The only worse place to spend three days is inside a hospital. And even then, at least there is access to painkillers.
I can almost picture the scene that went down in the league offices in Manhattan as they contemplated how to make this year's gathering even more unbearable than usual.
BUD SELIG: I've got it! Let's hold them at a hotel by an airport!
ASSISTANT: I like where your head is at, Allan. But why stop there? Let's hold them at a hotel that is actually inside an airport!
SELIG: And not just any airport!
SELIG AND ASSISTANT (in unison): O'Hare!
Last year, Major League Baseball at least had the decency to stage this annual event at an upscale resort that sits on the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Don't get me wrong: whatever the venue, the GM meetings are not a pleasurable experience. Rikers Island is still Rikers Island, despite the waterfront view. You sit around a hotel lobby all day waiting to talk to people who do not want to talk to you, and even if they did want to talk, they wouldn't have much to say, because the free agent signing period does not begin until Nov. 20 and nobody will have any idea about how the market will unfold until then.
"We haven't ruled anybody out," Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said yesterday.
And neither have I, but at least I've had a chance to test the market and eliminate the possibility of raising a family with Jessica Biel.
I don't want to sound too whiny or self-indulgent, so I won't mention the fact that there was no smoked salmon on the 23-dollar breakfast buffet, and I will point out that the GMs dislike these things almost as much as the reporters who cover them. The happiest guys in town yesterday were the assistant GMs who did not have to sit through the 4.5 hour morning meeting.
The one positive? Folks only have to walk about five minutes to get on their planes this afternoon.
And that's good. Because they can't wait to leave.
^
OK, OK. I was being slightly melo-dramatic above. But I haven't blogged for awhile, and I wanted to give you guys a chance to consternate me for complaining about covering baseball while you are staring at the start of another 9-to-5.
In reality, these GM meetings do provide an interesting chance to gain some insight on how the rest of the world views these Phillies. Which is where I'd like to begin, because several times over the past 48 hours I have heard other reporters express surprise at the Phillies' decision to decline Pedro Feliz's 2010 option, usually with a rationale that sounds something similar to, "Don't they already have enough offense?"
But like all things in this sport, the answer to that question depends on one's definition of "enough."
At this waypoint in Phillies history, Amaro's definition of "enough" is "Can we win a championship with what we have?" The most jaded Philadelphians among us still might have a hard time believing that, but his actions over the last year have spoken: It would have been easy not to trade for Cliff Lee, not to sign Pedro Martinez and relegate Jamie Moyer to the bullpen, not to bump final 2009 expenditures close to $140 million. But the Phillies have made it clear they are suddenly devout Ricky Bobbians. And if it is true that you are last if you ain't first, then the Yankees knocked the Phillies down to last place, and it is through that prism that they must evaluate their personnel.
Which brings us to offense. They led the National League in scoring in 2009, which is all well and good, because they won the National League. But they did not beat the American League, and four teams in the AL finished above them in scoring. And while it is tough to compare totals between the two leagues because of the DH, even when you disregard the runs created out of the No. 9 spot in the order (which in the AL is manned by a hitter and in Phillies line-ups is manned by a pitcher), the Phillies still were outscored by the Yankees by 40 runs. This is over-simplifying things, because even if the No. 9 hitter in an AL line-up doesn't create a run, he might get a two-out hit that keeps an inning alive or contribute in some other manner. But I don't have the mathematical capability to figure out a formula to account for such things, so I retreat to simplicity.
The biggest weakness in the Phillies' line-up was its consistency. They scored seven or more runs in 46 games, which was more than Colorado (43), the Dodgers (42), St. Louis (36) and Minnesota (43), all playoff participants. But they scored four or fewer runs in 82 games, which was more than New York (69), the Angels (79), the Red Sox (73), the Dodgers (73) and Minnesota (80).
So they scored seven or more runs eight fewer times than the Yankees, but scored four or fewer runs 13 more times.
They rattled off more crooked numbers than the Dodgers or the Twins, but also logged more impotence.
A big difference? Perhaps not. But neither was the difference between a second-straight World Series title and a disappointing second-place finish.
Which led to the decision to turn Feliz free. In doing so, they have the opportunity to fill two offensive holes -- at third base, and at the No. 7 spot in the order, both of which have been manned by Feliz the last two seasons.
^
Last year, the Phillies' posted a .704 OPS at the No. 7 spot in the line-up, which ranked 19th in the majors. (I'm using OPS, which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage, because RBIs and runs scored are variables that are dependent on other parts of the order).
By comparison, the Yankees' .862 OPS at No. 7 ranked 1st. And even if you use their OPS at No. 8 to account for the DH (Manuel, after all, used his No. 7 hitter at No. 8 at Yankee Stadium), it was still 69 points higher than that of the Phillies' seven-hole hitters.
The Dodgers, who lets not forget were a Jimmy Rollins walk-off double away from tying the NLCS at 2-2 and regaining home field advantage, posted a .842 OPS at No. 7, the best mark in the National League.
Feliz did hit .336 with runners in scoring position, the best mark on the team. So in no way are we saying that he performed poorly. But again, remember the defintion of "enough" off of which we are working. And in this case, "enough" might be finding a player who reaches base even when he isn't driving in runs, thereby keeping the line-up moving (Feliz hit just .243 with no runners in scoring position, .221 with the bases empty and .210 with two outs).
In the Phillies' line-up, No. 1, No. 7 and No. 8 were the only three slots in the batting order that finished outside of the Top 7 in the majors in OPS:
Looking at those numbers, it is easy to see why the Phillies line-up occasionally struggled: Statistically speaking, the four weakest spots in the batting order, including the pitcher, hit in succession. But Carlos Ruiz, the normal eight-hole hitter, isn't going anywhere, and neither is Jimmy Rollins, the normal leadoff hitter. Which leaves No. 7.
Looking at the available third baseman, it is easy to envision the possibilities that could arise out of an upgrade. The Angels' Chone Figgins is one candidate, although a lot of things would have to fall correctly to land him. Figgins' career on base percentage is 34 points higher than Rollins', and Rollins' career slugging percentage is 51 points higher than Figgins'. So adding Figgins would not only theoretically improve the No. 1 spot, but No. 7 as well, with either Rollins or Victorino or Raul Ibanez potentially hitting there.
Then we have Adrian Beltre, who could would bring more power to the seven-hole, or perhaps hit fifth and allow Jayson Werth to his seventh.
And then there is Mark DeRosa, and Placido Polanco, and Miguel Tejada, all of whom could be used at a variety of spots in the line-up.
^
The worst-case scenario, of course, is that all of the Phillies' targets -- Amaro said he had reached out to five or six prospective free agents -- end up signing elsewhere, and Feliz decides against returning to the team that turned down his option.
But that seems far-fetched.
By my count, there are eight teams that could potentially be in the market for a third baseman, but one of them is the Marlins, who are more apt to host a Fidel Castro Appreciation Night than they are to spend money this offseason.
So that leaves seven competitors (Phillies, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles). And Amaro has already said that he has talked to at least six prospective free agents (Educated guess: Beltre, Figgins, DeRosa, Polanco, Tejada and Troy Glaus), although there are plenty more options, including Feliz and Joe Crede.
Which means there is little chance they are left in the cold, even if it comes to re-signing Feliz at a lower dollar amount, which would in theory enable them to spend more money on the bullpen and bench.
Here is a breakdown of the third base situation in the majors, ranked on a scale of least to most need.
A lot of this can be affected by players moving positions. Figgins can play virtually any position on the field, as can DeRosa. Polanco has played just one game at third since leaving the Phillies in 2005. Tejada has never played third, although many have projected him there. Might a team like the Yankees make a play for Figgins if Johnny Damon leaves via free agency? What about the Tigers?
There's no doubt the Phillies took a risk when they declined Feliz's option. But given what they view as "enough," and the options that are out there, they decided it was a risk worth taking.
The Phillies have proven over the last two seasons that pitching and defense are the most important pieces in the path to the promised land, so a return by Feliz will still keep them in a position to contend. But the Yankees showed this year that it is also going to take pitching and defense and a well-rounded offense to beat them in the World Series. Maybe a marginal upgrade over Feliz will do the trick. And with Amaro determined to upgrade the bullpen and the bench, it is unclear whether he will have enough money to land a player like Figgins. If it comes down to an either/or, you can bet he will err on the side of the bullpen. He said yesterday that he was unlikely to dole out a contract on the scale of the three-year, $31.5 million deal that landed Ibanez. It might not take that much to land Figgins - he is 32 years old, on year older than Jimmy Rollins, and is a similar player to the Orioles' Brian Roberts, who signed a four-year, $40 million extension in January (The difference between Ibanez's $11.5 million salary and a $10 million salary could be another bullpen arm or bench player). But it might. And even if it does, the Phillies could get creative, backloading the contract for raises in 2011, when they have just over $70 million committed to seven players, and 2012, when Chase Utley is the only player currently under contract..
The Phillies have declined the option for 2010 on third baseman Pedro Feliz’ contract, general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. announced in a press release. The Phillies had a $5.5 million option, a $5 million salary for 2010 and a $500,000 buyout.
Feliz, 34, batted .266 with 12 home runs and 82 RBI in 158 games for the Phillies this past season. With runners in scoring position, he hit a team-best .336, which ranked 13th among all National League players.
“This doesn’t preclude us from bringing Pedro back next season,” Amaro said in the statement. “While this allows us to explore other opportunities, we will continue to keep the lines of communication open with Pedro and his representative.”
The fact that the Phillies made Feliz a free agent means their personnel department has identified potential candidates who would either provide a substantial upgrade (the Angels’ Chone Figgins, the Mariners’ Adrian Beltre both possess better offensive numbers over the last 3 years and are regarded as solid defenders) or, at the very least, provide better cost efficiency than the money they would pay their incumbent (the Orioles’ Melvin Mora, and the Cardinals’ Mark DeRosa and Troy Glaus and the Tigers’ Placido Polanco are among the veterans who could be available).
Figgins, for example, has hit .301 with a .386 on-base percentage with 117 stolen bases over the last three seasons. But he will be 32 years old on Opening Day (nearly a year older than Jimmy Rollins), has played his entire career with the Angels, and can play second base and the outfield as well as third. Good luck predicting the type of contract he would ultimately receive.
Same goes for Beltre. And what about DeRosa, a player whom the Phillies have long admired, but who is coming off wrist surgery and will be 35 on Opening Day? Is there a team out there who would give the versatile righthanded hitter a hefty multi-year contract? Or might he wind up providing a better value than Feliz?
An offensive upgrade at third base is their best option at improving a lineup that led the National League in runs and home runs, but was prone to maddening stretches of impotence thanks in part to its vulnerability against lefthanded pitchers. But by declining his option, they risk being left with a less attractive option at third.
The Phillies announced that three players will undergo surgery in the coming days.
According to a press release, righthander Brad Lidge is scheduled for surgery on Wednesday to remove a loose body from his right elbow. Team physician Dr. Michael Ciccotti will perform the surgery. Lidge will also have his right flexor/pronator tendon evaluated.
Outfielder Raul Ibanez is scheduled for surgery Monday to repair a sports hernia. Dr. Bill Meyers will perform the surgery. Meyers, a noted abdominal surgery based at Drexel, also has repaired the sports hernias of several Eagles, including Donovan McNabb, Kevin Curtis, LJ Smith and Dirk Johnson, and the Flyers' Danny Briere.
Lefthander Scott Eyre is also scheduled for surgery Monday with Ciccotti to remove loose bodies from his left elbow.
Ruben Amaro Jr. shed some light on the Phillies' offseason strategy today. Before we get into the interesting philosophical stuff, there are a few pieces of news that came out of the news conference:
1) As expected, the Phillies exercised Cliff Lee's $9 million option, officially bringing back the lefthander for next season. Furthermore, Amaro said the Phillies have had some preliminary discussions with Lee's agent about a contract extension that would keep him with the club beyond next season. Amaro emphasized that the discussions were introductary, and that no substantive negotations have taken place. Still, it sounds like the Phillies would like to keep Lee in the fold for the forseeable future.
2) Surgery remains a possibility for Raul Ibanez. Amaro said the veteran left fielder, who played the second half of the season with an injury in his groin/lower ab, was scheduled to undergo an MRI today.
3) Brad Lidge is having his elbow examined out of concern that he might have some loose bodies floating around inside of it, much like lefthander Scott Eyre. Amaro said that Lidge's knee, which caused him to go on the 15-day disabled list, is fine.
4) Amaro said later this afternoon that he informed Brett Myers that the Phillies would not be making a contract offer to him, effectively ending his eight-year tenure with the club. Amaro spoke with Myers shortly after his 12 noon press conference at Citizens Bank Park.
Stay tuned for more.
^
In today's paper we took a look at five questions facing the Phillies this offseason, starting with their projected payroll and ending with the rotation. But because there is a finite amount of space in the Daily News, we didn't cover half the stuff we wanted to get to. Fortunately -- or, depending on your point of view, unfortunately -- High Cheese is not subject to space constraints.
So I wanted to flesh out some things that had to be condensed in the paper, most importantly the Phillies' current and future financial situation, and whether they will have the money and desire to go big game hunting in free agency, or whether this will bring back Pedro Feliz and Joe Blanton and focus most of their improvement efforts on the bench and the bullpen.
1) The final 2009 payroll
You'll find different figures for the Phillies' Opening Day payroll depending on your source. Here at the Daily News, we factored in money the club paid to former players Jim Thome, Geoff Jenkins and Adam Eaton to get a total just under $131 million. According to the contract information we have obtained -- major props to veteran baseball scribe Paul Hagen for his copious record-keeping in this department -- the Phillies ended up paying just over $137 million after bonuses to 30 players. Their actual payroll is slightly higher, but we don't have enough information to figure exactly how much money was earned by players like Miguel Cairo, Tyler Walker, Andrew Carpenter, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Steven Register, Rodrigo Lopez.
Here is a look at final money earned by players, including bonuses and the prorated salaries of partial-season players:
Ryan Howard: 15.075 (.075 in bonuses for ASG, LCS MVP)
Brad Lidge: 11.50
Brett Myers: 12.00
Chase Utley: 11.050 (.050 in bonuses for ASG)
Raul Ibanez: 8.550 M (2.0 signing bonus, 0.050 for ASG, maybe 0.050 for AP/TSN or BA AS)
Jimmy Rollins: 7.50
Jamie Moyer: 7.00 (.500 in bonuses)
Joe Blanton: 5.475
Pedro Feliz: 5.500 (.500 in bonuses for 500/550 PA)
Cole Hamels: 4.35
J.C. Romero: 2.754 (4 million minus 1.245902 for suspension)
Shane Victorino: 3.150 (.025 for ASG selection)
Chan Ho Park: 2.575 (0.075 in bonsuses for 30, 40, 45 G)
Jayson Werth: 4.525 (1 M signing bonus, 0.525 in other bonuses for 500/600 PA, ASG)
Ryan Madson: 3.015 (1 M signing bonus, .015 bonus)
Scott Eyre: 2.00
Pedro Martinez: 2.45 (.45 in bonuses for Games started and days on active roster)
Cliff Lee: 2.085
Chad Durbin: 1.65
Greg Dobbs: 1.15
Matt Stairs: 1.10 (.10 in bonus for 100 PA)
Eric Bruntlett: .800
Clay Condrey: .650
Carlos Ruiz: .475
J.A. Happ: .405
Jack Taschner: .835
Ben Francisco: .153
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30 players, 137.372 million w/ Jenkins, Eaton, Thome
2) The projected 2010 payroll
You are more likely to catch David Montgomery singing karaoke at McGillin's than you are to hear him offer a definite number on what Phillies ownership is willing to spend in a given season. I sat down with Montgomery in Clearwater last spring and tried to gauge how much higher the team's payroll might climb in the coming years. While he did not offer anything concrete, he did say that the Phillies weren't on the fast-track to Yankeedom, and that the organization would have to rely more on internal player development than on yearly free-agent spending binges.
"We're at a point now where we're expecting to have about as much revenue as we can," Montgomery said in a wide-ranging interview with the Daily News. "That's why, if I look 5 years down the road, I hope that we are successful enough that we've been able to begin very seriously infiltrating another good group of young players, so that you can keep this successful period going. "
But Montgomery also said that the team couldn't expect to duplicate it's attendance success of 2008. But as it turns out, the Phillies eclipsed it, drawing nearly 150,000 more fans. They also had an extra home playoff date, thanks to three NLCS games (last year, they played two NLCS games at home). They likely won't make as much money as they would have had they defeated the Yankees in the World Series, but it is a safe bet that they made more money this season than they projected. How that translates into payroll spending is hard to tell.
3) Committed money for 2010
Once the Phillies pick up Cliff Lee's $9 million option for next season, they will have roughly $103.5 million committed to 12 players:
4) Will Joe Blanton be back, or will the Phillies make a play for another starter?
The Phillies have seven players eligible for arbitration, but only three are strong candidates to return. They could decide against offering contracts to RHP Chad Durbin, RHP Tyler Walker, INF Eric Bruntlett and RHP Clay Condrey. Durbin has been a big piece of the bullpen the last two years, but he will be due a raise from his $1.65 million salary, and the Phillies could choose to give themselves the option of spending that money elsewhere by letting him become a free agent. They could also decide that they want Durbin back, but only at a specific price, and offer that salary to him in a take-it-or-leave-it contract. Condrey pitched well when healthy and only made $650,000 last season, so he could stick around. Bruntlett was left off the NLDS roster and has hit just .202 in two seasons in Philly, so the team could decide that, at worst, they can find another back-up short stop with the $800,000 they paid him this season.
Right-handed starter Joe Blanton is an interesting case. He made $5.475 million last season and went 12-8 with a 4.05 ERA. Looking at past arbitration cases, a salary in the $7 million range would seem to be realistic for Blanton. Although each arbitration case is different, by looking at a composite of similar players and what they ended up earning, we can get an idea of what Blanton might be in line to receive.
Following the 2006 season, lefthander Doug Davis entered arbitration with 5 years, 138 days of services. Blanton has 5 years, 16 days of service. Davis went 11-11 with a 4.91 ERA for the Brewers in 2006, and had 33-33 with 3.84 and 3.39 ERAs the two years before.
At the time Davis was 62-63 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.467 WHIP in 1,089 innings pitched. Blanton is 63-54 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.331 WHIP in 1,026.2 innings.
In Davis' case, the Diamondbacks offered $5.25 million, Davis asked $7.5, and they agreed on a 3-year, $22 million deal.
After 2007, Oliver Perez (4.43 ERA, 1.430 WHIP, 804.1 IP, 5.034 years of service) was awarded $6.5 million. The same offseason, Nate Robertson (4.60 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 832.2 IP, 4.065 years of service) signed a three-year, $21.25 million deal with the Tigers. Last year, Erik Bedard (3.81 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 739 IP, 5.171 years of service) agreed to a $7.75 million contract with the Mariners after making $7 million the year before.
Granted, all four of these pitchers are lefties, on which there is more of a premium. And Bedard and Robinson spent their careers in the hitting-friendly American League.
But given Blanton's consistent production, durability, salary, and service time, the Phillies likely figure that Blanton will be in line to receivea salary of at least $6.5 million, and perhaps even higher.
The Phillies could decide they are better off using that money to pursue another pitcher. They already have Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and J.A. Happ under contract for next season. But if they elect to keep Pedro Feliz at third base (we'll get to that shortly), they'll be counting only on internal improvement to bolster what was an inconsistent line-up (Raul Ibanez staying healthy for the whole season and Carlos Ruiz carrying his postseason success over to 2010 would go a long way). Which means they could view bolstering their pitching as their best shot at another World Series. Toronto ace Roy Halladay, whom they pursued at the trade deadline, figures to be available. Angels righthander John Lackey is the cream of a so-so free agent crop, but he figures to command a huge multi-year contract.
Thanks to escalators that he met, Moyer will earn about $8 million next season. He is recovering from surgery and lost his spot in the rotation after an inconsistent performance last season, but is unlikely to be moved elsewhere. Several people in the organziation believe top prospect Kyle Drabek could be major league ready by the second half of next season, so it isn't out of the question that the Phillies enter the season with Moyer as the No. 5 starter while priming Drabek for an if-necessary promotion should Moyer falter.
Do the Phillies think they can get more bang for their buck elsewhere (Among free agent RHP starters: Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero, John Garland, Rich Harden, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets)? Or that they can bring back Brett Myers at an affordable price? Or that they can make a big upgrade by making a play for Lackey or Halladay? Or that Blanton's consistent production, and the risks of the aforementioned options (Who is the real Jason Marquis? Can Harden stay healthy? Is Sheets damaged goods? Is Lackey worth the money? Is Halladay worth the prospects?), makes him the best option?
5) Do the Phillies have the future money, and desire, to sign Lackey or Cliff Lee or Chone Figgins or Jayson Werth to a multi-year contract?
The Phillies' 2010 payroll is only part of any equation. While they have a considerable amount of money tied up for next season, their 2011 situation could give them some flexibility to dole out another big contract.
For the 2011 season, the Phillies have $71.5 million committed to seven players (Howard, Lidge, Utley, Ibanez, Hamels, Madson). Jimmy Rollins has an $8.5 million option with a $2 million buy-out. J.C. Romero has a $4.5 million option. Utley is the only player currently signed through 2012 (Brad Lidge has a $12.5 million option with a $1.5 million buy-out).
So the Phillies have both the wherewithall and impetus to look toward the future when considering this year's crop of free agents. Might they decide to lock up Cliff Lee to an extension? And what about Jayson Werth, who had a career year but will be a free agent after 2010?
One of the big decisions they have to make in the coming weeks involves third base, where Pedro Feliz has an affordable $5.5 million club option (up from $5 million based on bonuses received in 2009), with a $500,000 buy-out. Feliz has been masterful on defense over the last two seasons, but his offense has been inconsistent, and the power he displayed in San Francisco has not entirely carried over to the cozier confines of Citizens Bank Park (Feliz had at least 20 home runs in each of his last four seasons with the Giants -- He has just 26 in two years with the Phillies). The Phillies' minor league system is devoid of any clear third basemen who might make an impact in the next two or three years, and next year's potential crop of free agents is, at least at first glance, weak. Aramis Ramirez (.303 BA, .368 OBP, 173 HRs the last six years) has a $14.6 million player option with the Cubs. After him, there isn't much. Ty Wigginton and Jorge Cantu could both be available, but neither is the type of defender the Phillies want at third.
Taking all of that into consideration, they could decide that this year is the year to lock up a third baseman who can upgrade the line-up both now and in the future.
Here is a look at the avaiable third basemen:
A) The cream of the crop
Chone Figgins, Angels
Perhaps the most intriguing option, particularly with the flexibility the Phillies have with Rollins after 2010. Figgins is a true leadoff hitter. This year, he hit .298 with a .395 on base percentage and stole 42 bases. In five of his six years as an everyday player, his on base percentage has been at least .350 (Rollins' career-high is .349, and he has finished under .340 in six of his nine full seasons). Figgins, like Rollins and Shane Victorino, is a switch-hitter. He doesn't have much power - he hit five home runs last season and his career-high is nine - but the last thing this team needs is more power.
Adding Figgins to the line-up would give the Phillies flexibility to move Rollins out of the leadoff spot and would give Charlie Manuel an array of options with his line-up. He is also a solid defender, although arguably not on Feliz's level.
The downsides? He'll be 32 years old on Opening Day, one year older than Rollins. Figgins has also hit just .172 with a .223 OBP in 35 career postseason games.
Figgins has spent his entire big league career playing in Southern California, and he will likely command a big free agent contract.
Adrian Beltre, Mariners
Here's another intriguing candidate, albeit one that might carry more risk than a guy like Figgins. From 2006-08, Beltre hit at least .266 with 25 home runs for the Mariners. Last season, he missed time due to two separate injuries (surgery to remove bone spurs from his non-throwing shoulder and a badly swollen testicle he suffered from an errant ground ball) and finished hitting .265 with eight home runs in 111 games.
Beltre is also a Gold Glove fielder (he won the award in 2007 and 2008) whose UZR was the second-best among MLB third basemen in 2008.
He kills lefties but struggles against righties. He hit .298 against lefties but .253 against righties in 2009, and .340 with eight home runs in 150 at-bats against lefties in 2008, compared with .239 with 17 home runs in 406 at-bats against righties.
He also could stand a change of scenery.
In 2009, Beltre hit .279 with a .324 on base percentage with four home runs and 25 RBI in 229 at-bats away from the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. In 2008, he hit .292 with a .349 on base percentage, 15 home runs and 54 RBI at home and .240 with a .303 on base percentage, 10 home runs and 23 RBI at home.
Beltre is just 30 years old. But like Figgins, it is tough to tell exactly how much he will command on the open market.
Mark DeRosa, Cardinals
DeRosa, a Univ. of Pennsylvania product, should come cheaper than Figgins or Beltre. DeRosa earned $5.5 million this season. Had surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left writst, but is expected to be ready for spring training.
From 2006-08, he hit at least .285 with a .351 on base percentage and 10 home runs for the Rangers and Cubs. He is a .299 career hitter against lefties, but also hits .265 against righties. He has alos hit 44 home runs in his last two seasons. This year, he hit just .228 with a .291 on base percentage after being traded from the Indians to the Cardinals, but he suffered from a wrist injury that required offseason surgery.
The Phillies liked DeRosa last offseason. He'll be 35 on Opening Day, so he likely isn't a long-term solution. This was the first year since 2004 he played mostly at third base, and he would be a significant drop off in defense from Feliz. But he isn't such a huge defensive liability that it would overshadow the potential bat he would bring.
DeRosa has also played extensively at second base and in the outfield. Even if they retain Feliz or look elsewhere at third base, the Phillies would love the bat and defensive versatility that DeRosa brings. But would they be able to guarantee him enough at-bats to convince him to sign as a back-up?
B) Short-term rentals
If the Phillies do not exercise Feliz's option, it isn't necessarily a sign that they will look to make a big free agent splash at third. There are plenty of veteran options available that could upgrade the line-up. Melvin Mora is 37 years old and coming off a season inwhich he hit .260 with a .321 on base percentage and eight home runs for the Orioles. But he hit .285/.342 with 23 home runs and 104 RBI in 2008 and at least .274 with a .341 on base percentage and 14 home runs from 2005-08.
Troy Glaus, who played just 14 games due to injuries this season, is another option with big upside. He hit .261 with a .364 on base percentage and 122 home runs from 2005-08 and two years ago was one of the best defensive third basemen in the game.
The Phillies' Opening Day payroll was a club-record $130,844,098 this season, including nearly $20 million that was guaranteed to former players Adam Eaton, Geoff Jenkins and Jim Thome. Thanks to a club-record attendance of 3,600,693 and eight home postseason games, a payroll increase is not out of the question.
But the Phillies already have a considerable chunk of money - roughly $94.5 million - locked up to 11 players who are under contract for next season. Once they exercise the $9 million option on ace lefthander Cliff Lee's contract, they will have $103.5 million dedicated to 12 players.
Here is a look at where things stand at the moment in terms of salary. (Players who are not arbitration eligible are not listed.)
Under contract for 2010
Ryan Howard: $19,000,000
Chase Utley: $15,000,000
Raul Ibanez: $11,500,000
Brad Lidge: $11,500,000
Jimmy Rollins: $8,500,000
Jamie Moyer: $8,000,000
Jayson Werth: $7,000,000
Cole Hamels: $6,650,000
Ryan Madson: $4,500,000
J.C. Romero: $4,000,000
Greg Dobbs: $1,350,000
TOTAL: $97,000,000
Options for 2010
Cliff Lee: $9,000,000
Pedro Feliz: $5,500,000
TOTAL: $14,500,000
Potential free agents (2009 salaries, including bonuses)
Brett Myers: $12,000,000
Chan Ho Park: $2,575,000
Pedro Martinez: $2,450,000*
Scott Eyre: $2,025,000
Matt Stairs: $1,050,000
Paul Bako: $600,000
Miguel Cairo: $500,000
TOTAL: $21,200,000
* Prorated
Arbitration eligible (2009 salaries, including bonuses)
Joe Blanton: $5,475,000
Shane Victorino: $3,150,000
Chad Durbin: $1,635,000
Eric Bruntlett: $800,000
Tyler Walker: $750,000
Clay Condrey: $650,000
Carlos Ruiz: $475,000
TOTAL: $12,935,000
Off the books (2009 salaries, including buyouts)
Adam Eaton: $9,000,000
Geoff Jenkins: $8,000,000
Jim Thome: $3,000,000
TOTAL: $20,000,000
They dressed mostly in silence, shoving their belongings into duffle bags and slipping out to the waiting buses, en route to Penn Station, and then Philadelphia, and then wherever their offseason homes lie.
The end of the Phillies' reign as world champions came just before midnight in the Bronx, in the form of a convincing 7-3 loss at the hands of the Yankees. Most of them will be back. Several will not. Righthander Brett Myers is a free agent, as are Matt Stairs, Scott Eyre, Chan Ho Park, Paul Bako, Pedro Martinez, Tyler Walker and Miguel Cairo.
Pedro Feliz has a $5.5 million club option that might be exercised. Cliff Lee has a $9 million club option that will definitely be exercised.
In many ways, the Phillies final game of the 2009 season offered a case study on how they can improve before their next attempted title run. They will need to address the bullpen, where two of the most reliable arms in an inconsistent unit -- Eyre and righthander Chan Ho Park -- are headed toward retirement or free agency. They will need to find a right-handed bat or two who can provide balance on the bench (reserve outfielder Ben Francisco went 0-for-3 last night and finished the postseason 0-for-11, while Eric Bruntlett and Miguel Cairo combined to go 0-for-6).
They will need to decide whether Feliz, who went 0-for-4 last night and 3-for-26 in the postseason, has earned a $5.5 million club option with his defense, or if the free agent market holds a compelling-enough right-handed-hitting offensive upgrade at third base that might better balance the line-up without sacrificing too much in the field.
And they must find a reliable fifth starter, provided: A) They decide to offer righthander Joe Blanton arbitration and keep him in the fold with lefties Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ, B) They are not married to veteran lefty Jamie Moyer, who lost his spot in the rotation in August and is currently recovering from lower ab/groin surgery, but who is due to make an estimated $8 million next season thanks to escalators he reached based on starts and innings pitched, and C) That they have seen enough out of Martinez, who will be a free agent, to know that he is not that guy.
There will be other sub-plots, other developments, that will shape this team in the next few months. Might Myers, who after eight seasons with the Phillies will become a free agent, be the guy who completes the rotation? Is Ibanez, who went 13-for-52 with 13 RBI this postseason, headed for surgery on his injured groin and lower abdomen?
One thing is for sure: the 25 players who walked off the field amidst the mayhem at Yankee Stadium last night will never play together again.
Even in defeat, they made history, becoming the first team in franchise history to reach back-to-back World Series. They won 93 games during the regular season, nine games during the postseason, and came two wins away from becoming the first National League team to repeat as World Champions since the 1975-76 Reds.
This weekend, however, Broad Street will be silent, save for the people and cars bustling through the onset of winter.
There will still be Thanksgiving, and there will still be Christmas, but there will be no parade, no title, no World Bleepin’ Champs.
“When two teams are playing like that, one of them is going home,” manager Charlie Manuel said, his eyes red and his voice at times shaky. “Last year it was Tampa. This year it’s us. But we’re going to be back.”
^
I'd like to thank all of you readers out there for following along throughout this season. I appreciate the feedback, both positive and negative, and I hope you all will continue to check in to the blog throughout the offseason, when we'll attempt to keep things running on all cylinders.
On Sunday, I'm off to Chicago, where the general manager's will be holding their annual meeting. Free agency begins 15 days after the last game of the World Series, which by my calculation is Nov. 20.
In other words, there will be plenty of moving and shaking going on -- probably not as much as last year, when the Phillies hired a new general manager, said goodbye to Pat Burrell, signed Raul Ibanez, and hired an entire new front office, as well as a new bench coach and third base coach. But there will be plenty to delve into once the World Series hangover wears off.
Again, thanks for checking in.
And as Fonzie would say: Ayyyyyyyyyyyyy
Hard to believe that within the next 30 hours, the Phillies' season will be over, and they will either maintain their title as champions, or find themselves one or two wins short. The highlight of this weekend will either be a parade down Broad Street, or the Eagles' Sunday night tilt against the Cowboys. The Phillies will either enter the offseason again trying to improve the best team in the major leagues, or they will look to fix the three glaring personnel deficiencies that helped cost them the title -- an over-reliance on their left-handed sluggers, the lack of a powerful right-handed bat off the bench, and an inconsistent bullpen.
Four hours before the start of Game 6, manager Charlie Manuel said he expected center fielder Shane Victorino to be in the line-up. Victorino suffered a badly swollen, albeit unbroken, finger when he was hit on the right hand with an A.J. Burnett in the third inning of Game 5. Manuel labeled the finger "fine," although he said he would watch Victorino's swings and throws during batting practice to make sure the injured digit is not hampering him.
Assuming Victorino plays, Ben Francisco will start in left field, with Raul Ibanez serving as the designated hitter. Francisco hit seventh the last time he was in the line-up, but tonight he will hit eighth, with Pedro Feliz hitting seventh and Carlos Ruiz hitting ninth. The bottom of the Phillies' order could play a huge role in this game. Ibanez, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard combined to go 0-for-9 with six strikeouts off Andy Pettitte in Game 3. If Pettitte has similar success with his slider tonight, the five right-handed bats at Nos. 7 through 2 will need to help make up for the lack of production at the middle of the order.
Here are the line-ups:
Phillies
Yankees
Over the last 24 hours, the bulk of the spotlight has centered on the shoulders of Pedro Martinez, and deservedly so. It is difficult to imagine another athlete who, over the course of his career, has displayed such an intriguing ability to both dominate on the playing field and cultivate his legend off of it.
In my admittedly-young career, Pedro Martinez is the most street smart professional athlete I have covered, and it isn't even close. Just like his pitches, the loquacious righthander is well aware of the impact of each one of his comments, the purpose and plan behind each evident only after your walk back toward the dugout has begun.
If you think Martinez did not know what he was doing when he labelled the Yankees his daddy, when he contemplated drilling the Bambino in his kiester, you are missing the true brilliance that exists inside his mind.
Even now, five years after his legendary daliances with the Yankees as a member of the Red Sox, many media members and fans chuckle as if the joke is on him. They chuckled last week when Martinez labelled himself the most influential person to ever play at Yankee Stadium. They chuckled this morning when they saw the cover of the New York Post featuring Martinez's head superimposed on a diaper-clad baby, seated above a headline that reads "Daddy to whup Pedro tonight."
But last week, as he walked off the mound at Yankee Stadium in the seventh inning of Game 2 serenaded by chants of "Who's Your Daddy?," it was Martinez who was smiling, slowing his pace as he neared the lip of the visitor's dugout and looking mischievously into the rabid stands. It was not a happy grin. It was a sly grin, the grin of an uncle who had just finished toying with a clueless nephew at Thanksgiving Dinner.
Once again, he had forced them to prove him right, the attention of 50,000 New Yorkers resting squarely on the shoulders of a once-poor kid from the Dominican.
At yesterday's press conference at Yankee Stadium, Martinez staged a typical Pedro performance, charming the local and national media who filled rows of plastic chairs in a conference room with his unique blend of humor, philosophy and hyperbole. He is just at home behind a microphone as he is on top of a mound, toying with reporters the same way he does hitters, setting them up with off-speed stuff that make his fastballs seem more potent.
The media looks at these sessions as can't-miss opportunities to make Pedro be Pedro, to coax the righthander into making his next crazy quote. Two of the first six questions referenced two of his legendary quotes, one of them the "Yankees are my daddy" reference he made years ago after a loss, and the other about his vow to drill Babe Ruth in the buttocks should he ever get the chance.
But with deft subtlety, Martinez turned the onus on the questioner, first declining to discuss the Daddy chants with a "I'm not going to answer that question. . .And I'm sorry for that," and later unleashing perhaps his most revelaing monologue yet.
"In some ways I give that to you guys because it took me a while to realize that anything I say, everything I do has a meaning to you," Martinez told reporters. "I hope that when I need you for the community work and other things that I'm going to need, I'm going to need help to help people, that you guys actually bring the message across because that will give me help for all those things that I have in mind for after I retire."
A quick Google search reveals that no New York or Philadelphia newspapers published Martinez's words that were quoted above. Instead, they focused on the headline-ready portions of the news conference, the money quotes that sell newspapers and build public personas, the moments when Martinez:
1) Labelled himself a Montrealer and a New Yorker and a Bostonian
2) Expressed confidence that Red Sox fans would root for him because, hey, "they don't like the Yankees to win, not even in Nintendo games.
3) Directly contradicted William Shakespeare's contention that the good men do is oft-interred with their bones, saying "Normally when you die, people tend to actually give you props about the good things. But that's after you die. (Laughter). So I'm hoping to get it before I die. I don't want to die and then hear everybody say, "Oh, there goes one of the best players ever." If you're going to give me props, just give them to me right now."
But after it was over, after Martinez spent the last part of his press conference answering questions from the Spanish-speaking reporters in attendance, he slid from behind the table at the front of the room with a smile and crossed paths with Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, who was scheduled to follow him on the dais.
"I knocked them dead," Martinez, still grinning, told Manuel.
It was the same grin that had crossed his face when he left the mound at Yankee Stadium four days earlier, it's message matching the one he had spent the previous 20 minutes delivering to a mostly unwitting audience:
Everything I do has a meaning to you.
^
As much focus as will be on Martinez tonight, Game 6 could come down to how Manuel deals with his legendary starter. In Martinez's first two starts of the postseason, Manuel has been labasted for his use of the righthander. In Game 2 of the NLCS, many fans and media felt he had pulled Martinez far too early, given the 87 pitches he had thrown in seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers. In Game 2 of the World Series, those same second-guessers said he had left Martinez in the game too long, given the 99 pitches he had thrown after six innings and the run he would go on to allow in the seventh.
He is a difficult pitcher to judge. On Sept. 13, Manuel allowed him to throw 130 pitches in eight scoreless innings against the Mets, and the move resulted in a 1-0 win. But in six of Martinez's 11 starts with the Phillies in the regular season and postseason, he has allowed at least one run in his last inning of work. The problem lies in identifying what that last inning should be, and taking him out before it starts.
Against the Bravesin the regular season, the last inning was the third, when he allowed two runs after straining his neck in an at-bat. Against the Astros, it was the fourth, when he allowed a solo home run. Against the Cubs, it was the fifth, when he allowed two runs. Against the Yankees in Game 2, it was the seventh, when he allowed one run. Or perhaps it should have been the sixth, when he allowed a solo home run after holding the Yankees scoreless in the first five frames.
The difficulty in handling Martinez is that has at times has taken an inning to get into a groove -- Six of the 18 runs he has allowed this season have come in the first inning. But he also shows few signs of slipping from that groove until it is too late -- Seven of his 18 runs have come in his last inning of work.
Manuel said yesterday that righthander Joe Blanton, who pitched in Game 4, could be available for an inning or two out of the bullpen. Chan Ho Park can throw multiple innings, as can Chad Durbin. Throughout this season, the notable exception being Game 2 of the NLCS, Manuel has displayed a willingness to push his starters to the max, hoping to avoid putting too much pressure on an inconsistent bullpen. Yesterday, Manuel said he felt like Martinez was back to the physical condition he displayed in that eight-scoreless-inning effort against the Mets in mid-September.
What if Martinez has thrown six scoreless on 90 pitches in a game the Phillies lead 2-0? Is it Chan Ho Park time? Or is it a game for Martinez to win or lose?
Charlie Manuel just finished briefing the media on the state of its team as it prepares for Game 6 tomorrow night at Yankee Stadium.
Shane Victorino, who injured his finger in the third inning of Game 5 after being hit with a pitch, was examined by team doctors today in Philadelphia. There is no fracture, but the finger remains swollen, and Victorino's status for Game 6 is up in the air. If Victorino can not play, Manuel said Ben Francisco would likely play center field. That means Manuel would have to find somebody else to DH, likely Eric Bruntlett, the only other right-handed bat on the bench.
Also, Manuel said he does not expect to change the line-up he has used throughout the postseason, despite the 0-for-9, six-strikeout performance of his trio of lefty sluggers against Andy Pettitte in Game 3.
So this is where we stand:
For a team that two days ago found itself facing a 3-1 deficit after a heart-breaking loss in the World Series, the Phillies find themselves in as fortunate of a position as they could have hoped for heading into Game 6. Yankees manager Joe Girardi just confirmed what most people assumed, that veteran lefthander Andy Pettitte will start tomorrow on three days' rest against veteran righthander Pedro Martinez.
Here are some key points to watch as the Phillies fight to keep their season alive:
I. Pettitte on Three Days' Rest
Pettitte has plenty of experience pitching on short rest. In 14 regular season starts, he is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA. But Pettitte's career numbers don't provide an accurate barometer for tomorrow, since he is 37 years old and hasn't pitched on three days rest since 2006. Besides, those 14 starts occurred in the regular season, not in the high-tension atmosphere that is the playoffs, not against what is supposed to be the best team in the National League.
The last time Pettitte pitched on three days' rest in the postseason was in 2003, when he hurled a masterpiece against the Marlins in Game 2 of the World Series, allowing one unearned run on six hits and one walk while striking out seven in 8 2/3 innings of a 6-1 win. He threw 111 pitches that night, four days after he started Game 6 of the ALCS against Boston and allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings while throwing 92 pitches.
But Pettitte's three other postseason starts on short rest provide a mixed bag:
So you have one bad start, one great start, and one so-so start.
Similarly, Pettitte's most recent regular season starts on short rest show a variety of results:
So in the last nine years, you have two bad starts and two great, with a fairly irrelevant great start against the Padres seeing as though he wasn't making back-to-back starts on short rest.
Some other things to consider:
II. Time for a line-up change?
Manuel essentially said today that he would not mess with the order of his line-up, except to account for the addition of a designated hitter. Manuel has used the same order in all 12 postseason games played in National League parks, and he doesn't intend to change. Lefty sluggers Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Ryan Howard went a combined 0-for-9 with six strikeouts off of Pettitte in Game 3. But Manuel said he does not intend to move Jayson Werth, who hit two home runs off of Pettitte, to third as he has occasionally done in the past.
"Utley hit in the two hole, but Utley is hitting lefties right now," Manuel said. "I kind of look at our line-up if you stop and think about what it is. I've messed with it before. Utley has hit second and I put Victorino down sixth and Jayson Werth up in the three hole before, but I don't want to do that. I think especially if we're going to play Ibanez, I like Werth standing in between Howard and Ibanez."
If Manuel did opt for a line-up change, here is one he might consider -- assuming, of course, that Victorino is healthy enough to play.
III. The Yankees' bullpen
The one argument against a line-up change would be the possibility of Pettitte leaving the game early and turning things over to the bullpen, which features talented righties in Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera.
If Pettitte has a real short outing, the Phillies could see righthander Chad Guadin, who was the other option to start Game 6.
Gaudin hasn't started a game since late September and has thrown just one inning this postseason.
Here are the Phillies' numbers against him:
Ibanez: 7-for-18, 4 XBH, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 5 SO
Feliz: 2-for-8, 1 RBi, 1 BB, 2 SO
Stairs: 3-for-6, 2 XBH, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Dobbs: 2-for-2, 1 XBH
Werth: 0-for-1, 1 BB, 1 SO
Francisco: 1-for-1
Utley: 1-for-1
Bako, Bruntlett, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, all 0-for-1
^
Turns out, the Yahoo! Sports report of a confrontation between Brett Myers and Cole Hamels was slightly exagerated. FoxSports.com insider Ken Rosenthal witnessed it and wrote on his web site that he took it as the two players joking around. Phillies' Director of Communications Greg Casterioto was also there and told a similar story. Myers might have rubbed Hamels the wrong way with his joke, but it doesn't appear to be indicative of friction in the clubhouse.
Instead, it appears to be business as usual. Before Myers and Hamels' interaction, center fielder Shane Victorino good-naturedly ribbed Hamels about his now famous quote hoping the season would end, threatening bodily harm in the process. Hamels told Victorino, who injured his finger during the game, that he wasn't scared: "You've only got one arm."
