Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I'm already on record as saying that the Delmon Young signing makes some sense for the Phillies. At $750,000, there is not a lot of downside.
That being said, there is some downside, and that downside is the potential that the signing of Young precludes Domonic Brown from entering a season with the confidence that comes with knowing that he has a regular major league job. Now, I know there is a faction of Phillies fans that is suffering from Dom Brown fatigue. That faction would likely argue that 422 plate appearances is as much of an opportunity as most players can hope for at the major league level. And in the 422 plate appearances that Brown has logged over the last couple of seasons, he hasn't put up the numbers that you would expect out of a prospect who was as highly touted as he was.
But do me a favor and forget about the expectations for a moment. Instead of comparing Brown to the player you were led to believe he would be, why not compare him to the player who the Phillies just signed to replace him as their top option in right field heading into spring training.
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Brown has 21 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs, 46 walks and 2 hit by pitches in 422 plate appearances. That means he has produced a total of 194 bases in 422 plate appearances (two bases for a double, three for triple, one for a walk, etc.). That's an average of 0.46 bases per plate appearances. Over the last two seasons, Delmon Young has produced an average of 0.43 bases per plate appearance.
Power? Young has the edge in home runs, averaging one every 34.9 at bats, while Brown checks in at one every 37.1 at bats. But Brown has an edge in extra base hits, averaging one every 10.9 ABs, with Young checking in at one every 13.1 ABs. Of Brown's 89 hits, 38 percent have gone for extra bases. Of Young's 280 hits, 29 percent have gone for extra bases.
Contact? Brown has struck out in 16 percent of his plate appearances. Young has struck out in 18 percent of his PAs. Advantage: Brown.
RBIs? Young has the edge there, averaging one every 8.1 plate appearances (Brown: 9.4 PAs). But Brown has scored runs at a higher rate, because he reaches base more (one every 8.6 PAs compared to one every 10.3 PAs for Young). And since RBIs and runs both equal the same number on the scoreboard, it is worth noting that Brown has produced an RBI or a run every 5.0 PAs, while Young has done so every 5.1 PAs. So even if you believe that runs and RBIs are valid metrics to measure performance, Brown has the slight edge there.
So what am I missing? Brown reaches base more, creates more bases with his hits, strikes out less, and produces runs at a higher rate. Over the course of a 600 plate appearance season, at the rates both players posted in 2011 and 2012, Young would give you a grand total of 2 more home runs, 30 more singles and 11 more RBIs at the expense of 40 more walks/HBPs, 4 more doubles, 3 more triples, 8 fewer strikeouts, 10 fewer double plays, and 12 more runs scored.
Again, at the rates both players have posted over the last two seasons, this is how a season of 600 plate appearances would look:
Domonic Brown: 600 PAs, 195 times on base, 14 home runs, 30 doubles, 4 triples, 98 strikeouts, 64 RBIs, 70 runs, 11 GIDPs.
Delmon Young: 600 PAs, 179 times on base, 16 home runs, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 106 strikeouts, 75 RBIs, 58 runs, 21 GIDPs.
Really, the best anybody can say for Young is that the two players' production has been similar. The big difference, of course, is that we at least have enough of a sample size to say that Young can be expected to give the Phillies mediocre production. Maybe you think we have enough of a sample size to say the same thing about Brown, and that he has already peaked at 24 years old, and that Young after seven years in the majors has more upside.
I'm just not sure that it makes sense to give Delmon Young his fourth opportunity to fulfil his potential before giving Domonic Brown his first real one.
David, what are the stats on Dom Brown, misjudging fly balls ??? jumping for balls that are waist high ??? grounding his face into the turf while driving for uncatchable balls ?? and we have no idea how he'll play in postseason, but we do with Delmon Young.. So my question is this, how many opportunities are we gonna give Dom Brown to disprove the Phillies grading him top prospect, top 10 rookie, or star of tomorrow, he hasnt produced as expected and he's had his time, now its Ruf's turn in leftfield, give him 500 at bats, and then lets compare..— Pa Bryon- You did see Young's World Series throw, right? Some called it the worst throw in baseball post-season history. If you're going to call Brown out on his defense, fine. But don't counter with Young's one-dimensional bat if you're starting the argument with defense.
Part of the reason you don't get Young is exactly that: You already have questionable defense at both corners. Amaro must have hit his head and thought he was in the AL.— s - Great post, Murph. Ryan's work is great but I've missed reading your stuff.— maximusud
- Another article that proves that you can make stats say whatever you want. I thought the Phils were looking for a right handed outfielder with some power. How does Brown measure up in that regard? Look, I hope Domonick Brown turns into the player that the Phillies have said he would. It would be moronic to count on that. Why shouldn't Brown have to win the job like almost all other players?— maurysline
- You completely ignored the fact that Brown is benched versus a lot of LH pitching, and almost always against a tough lefty. Young faces RH and LH pitching (150 games last year). Your stats are meaningless unless you look at them on an equal plane - break them down to the next level.— trestont
- You make good points, but I think that the guys who play the best in spring training should win the outfield starting jobs. It would be wrong to give the starting job to Brown as he has not proven that he is an adequate MLB outfielder.— MUADDIB
- I like Brown and hope he finally gets the opportunity to be an everyday player, BUT Delmon Young was the ALCS MVP last year - I would say thats nothing to sneeze at— eben731
- When I see that byline I always move on but with such a bizarre headline I couldn't help to read on. "What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?" I'd tell you have zero baseball credibility once I stop laughing. Comparing a player that played 275 games in those two seasons (including 151 for the AL champs) to a player who could only get himself into the line up 112 games is beyond silly but I guess it isn't one of the objective measures. Or contributing enough to be MVP in the ALCS (what's Brown's projections for the playoffs?). Averages per at bat are irrelevent if you're not good enough to get into the lineup. Go back to your fantasy league with your projections and all those objective measures. Let's see who wins the spot on merit but the better player the last two years? I've seen stats used to make any argument but this is silly stuff. Since this reporter declared he didn't care if the Phillies told him the truth because it wasn't his business(?) he continues to stun with weaker and weaker articles. By all objective measures how does this reporter still have a byline?— TomO
- Amaro wasn't cool going to spring training with two proven backups (Mayberry, Nix), two unprovens (Brown, Ruf) and hoping that things break just right. He kicked the tires on Ichiro, Hairston and (god help us) even Vernon Wells. Didn't like what he got back.
So he signed Delmon Young who, if nothing else, is proven. Is he a world beater? No. Is he a troubled guy? Probably. Does he bat right-handed and have decent power? Yes.
Ruf, Brown, D.Young and even Mayberry will get legitimate shots to claim positions in spring training. Who will emerge? I don't know but the mix is better with D.Young in there than without him.
— eman - Statistics lie. To me you're wringing out of them what you want to see. Young has 3x as many hits in that period. How does any of this 'preclude' Brown from having said confidence? He can win the job in either corner with a good spring. And Young goes to the bench for $750k. It's called competition, Murph.— PhillySubsMac
- DON'T TRADE OR SELL TYLER CLOUD. HE JUST NEEDS TO KNOW WHEN AND HOW TO WASTE PITCH OUT OF THE ZONE.
YOUNG AND BROWN SHOULD PLATOON IN LEFT. IF BROWN DOESNT HIT ,SEND HIM DOWN,
TRADE OR SELL HOWARD.PUT RUFF ON FIRST.— Lew Klein - I understand that recent moves have not worked out well. here was virtually no objection to the Pence deal until he proved he was not a player worthy of a 13-16 million $ contract. Hindsight. He was and is a 25-95 guy with decent peripherals that translate on the field the same way Bobby Abreu's do. Halladay got injured after 2 stud seasons that is not Rubes fault. Oswalt deal was a killer to the farm as Gose would have negated a necessity for Revere. But Oswalt solidified the rotation that first half year he just dumped in the bed in the playoffs far below his playoff history. I'm not going to kill him for the Howard signing looking at where the market was going and trying to be proactive considering what Pujols had gotten what Fielder and Hamilton got, he was only slightly above market and when you look at how the offense performs better w/Howard than w/out, I am not going to kill Rube on that. Last years deadline deals netted the probable catcher to replace Chooch and restocked some arms to the system. His FA acquisitions in 2012 were a waste but prior to that. Nobody complained about signuing Lee for less than Texas and the Yanees offered. Personally I think he overinvested in SP under invested in RP and OF. I am not a rollins fan offensively but he is the key to their IF defense and with no replacement is a had to sign playr done at a reasonable price. Hamels had to sign him. Papelbon was an overpay but considering what other teams got (Madson, Bell, Nathan),Nathan was the best value and was outperformed by Pap. To dismiss the wins and saves he had with the bad outings is completely unfair. Could things have been done better or different yes but tat is completely with the benefit of hindsight.— rhcjr2
- You have to look at defense and running the base paths too. Young is just horrid. This is still the NL the last time I checked. As bad as some of Brown's fielding has been, wait until you see Young.
As I noted elsewhere, the big downside of Young is he takes playing time away from Ruf and/or Brown (probably Mayberry too). If you're doing that because you want to win now you do better than Delmon Young. You do what the Braves just did or something similar. If you're not all-in this year, fine -- leave things as-is and start the process for 2014 and beyond.
Good pieces lately Murph.— s - Another aspect to look at is how Young, like most young top prospect, got a lot of playing time early on. His first partial year (2006) he gets in 30 games for 131 PA's. Brown's first partial year (2010) he gets in 3 games for 70 PA's. First full year? 162 games/681 PA's for Young. Brown is still almost 200 PA's short of that after 3 years.
The Phillies have no patience for young players.— s
