Phillies pay steep price for Revere
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Phillies pay steep price for Revere
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The Phillies wrapped up the winter meetings by landing a center fielder who they hope will hold down the position for at least the next four years. There are plenty of indications that Ben Revere can be that man. But to acquire him, the Phillies made themselves weaker in the rotation, at least for time being, by sending Vance Worley to the Twins. They also parted with a player who entered the 2012 season as a Top 100 prospect as rated by Baseball America.
So what's the verdict?
As we noted, there are two issues to evaluate in this deal. Clearly, there is a lot to like about Revere. He has the reputation as a defensive whiz, with speed and base-running ability comparable to Michael Bourn, whom the Phillies decided against pursuing on the free agent market because of his asking price. Those abilities alone virtually guarantee that he will be, at the very least, an everyday major leaguer. His arm, according to scouts, is one of the weakest in the game, but in center field that should not be a huge issue. Everybody seems to agree that Revere can play stellar defense at the major league level.
The other characteristic Revere has that convinced the Phillies to pay a premium price is his youth. He does not turn 25 until May 3, and he has just 1 year and 149 days of service, meaning he won't be eligible for arbitration until after 2013 at the earliest. That means that the Phillies will pay their center fielder somewhere in the neighborhood of $515,000 this season, which obviously frees up money to address their other needs.
Other positives:
-Over the last two seasons he has stolen 74 bases while being thrown out just 18 times.
-His batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage all increased last year, from .267/.310/.309 to .294/.333/.342.
-He is a contact hitter, striking out in only 9.4 percent of his plate appearances, more than 10 percent better than league average.
-He is regarded as an excellent baserunner. Of the 14 times he has been on first base when a double has been hit, he has scored eight times. And he has scored on second from a single on 32-of-36 opportunities.
-He bunted for a base hit nine times last season.
-Away from pitcher-friendly Target Field, he has a career .297 batting average and .341 on base percentage.
It isn't a stretch of the imagination to see Revere developing as Bourn did, increasing his on base percentage and power to the point where he is a an average-to-slightly-above-average major league hitter, which, when combined with his defense and baserunning, would likely make him a huge bargain for the remainder of his time until club control.
That being said, the Phillies seem to have given up a ton to get Revere. That was my first reaction, and it seems to be pretty universal. While Revere makes plenty of contact, his walk rate and extra base hit rate are well below league average. The walk rate particularly is concerning, because Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter, and you'd like your leadoff hitter to reach base at least 34 percent of the time. If he cannot do that, you'd at least like for him to hit for power. The Phillies are putting a lot of stock in Revere's potential to develop. If Revere does not improve and Worley ends up becoming a middle-of-the-rotation fixture in Minnesota, it will be tough to argue that this trade is a win.
Which brings up the critical part of the equation: who replaces Worley in the rotation? The Phillies clearly plan on addressing the new vacancy on the free agent market. So it is possible that they could end up with an upgrade at the back end of the rotation, particularly when you consider the fact that Worley has never reached 150 innings in a season and struggled a bit with his conditioning last year (and is coming off a tough season that ended with minor elbow surgery). But their first concern is a right-handed power bat, and Michael Young does not count (reports had the Phillies attempting to deal for the Texas infielder, with Young needing to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate it).
I have long advocated Nick Swisher as the guy, but I have not heard anything from anybody that would indicate the Phillies have serious interest in him (Swisher is a switch-hitter, by the way). Josh Hamilton is a left-handed bat. Beyond those two, we drop down to players like Cody Ross and Scott Hairston, both of whom have power, but neither of whom reach base enough to be considered an impact player. Ryan Ludwick had been rumored to be on the verge of signing with the Reds, but apparently that has not happened yet. So he is available. The Phillies could also try to swing another trade.
A lot could depend on what kind of starter they are targeting. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a play for Ryan Dempster, who has a pretty good relationship with pitching coach Rich Dubee from their time together with the Marlins. He is 36 years old and, reportedly, looking for a three-year deal, but that hasn't always deterred the Phillies in the past. He has experience as a closer too, for what that is worth. The top of the market features Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, followed by guys like Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Joe Saunders. It's hard to believe that the Phillies would have enough money to land a Greinke or Sanchez and still have enough to add an impact bat and address the bullpen. But you never know.
Someone like Dempster, Lohse or McCarthy would make a lot of sense, particularly the first two.
Long story short, it is too early to assign a pass/fail mark to this trade. But when you consider the fact that the Nationals gave up one top pitching prospect for Denard Span, who is a vastly more accomplished and talented hitter, you can make an argument that the Phillies might have been better off using Worley to try to build a package for Span.
The question isn't just what did Worley and May land the Phillies in Revere, but what could have it landed them elsewhere?
We'll have to let the offseason play out before judging any further.
Rubens A Moron, Jr. strikes again!— advantasux- That is not a great OBP. Not that much better than Victorino. The guy needs to draw more walks to be a good leadoff hitter.— tomB
- Steep price? Are you serious? May got hammered last year at Double AA. Worley is at best a fourth starter on a good team or third starter on a bad team. This kid is 24 years old who can steal 40-50 bases, hits for average and is an outstanding defensive centerfielder. PLUS, he costs 80 million less han Bourne and is under team control for years. Good trade and you solved the most important psotion of need and you still have all your off season money. Now, onto third base and a set up guy.— matty177
- @stik....I couldn't have said it better myself. Worley isn't Drysdale and May isn't Seaver...and IMO neither one of them ever will be anything close.— Mark1npt
- Ben Revere has no homeruns in his major league career. None. I know we're not expecting him to be a power hitter, but don't you want a guy who can hit it out of the park at least once in a while?— Smooth88
- I saw May pitch several times in Reading. He loses his juice around the fourth or fifth inning. The best he will ever be is a middle reliever. Pitchers like Worley are a dime a dozen. Anyone who knows anything about baseball knows this is a great trade for the Phillies.— Russ
- This article states Kyle Lohse would be a free agent pitcher worth pursing. Well, he's a Boras client and that's why the Phillies didn't sign him before he went to the Cards. People have such short memories in this town.— sonnybuoy01
- For this offseason, I have always believed a trade was the only way to improve the team and get younger and cheaper. Revere is a good pick up especially if JRoll moves to 6 or 7 spot.. But trading 2 pitchers for a lead off hitter is bad. May's stock may have been dropping but he is still a power arm and worth keeping as compared to cloyd and pettibone. With Halliday coming off the books next year, KK and Worley a bad year away from being removed for the rotation completely you need young desirable pitching prospects to trade to cover your needs. If the Phils sign a FA pitcher we are going to be stuck with a rotation that has bad contracts tying up too much money. It also means that since we can't move any of that overpriced pitching, real prospects like Biddle come into play as trading chips. By trading Worley and May in the same deal, RAJ has limited his future options.— PhillyinBmore
- We hear this all the time, If the Phillies trade a prospect, they traded away the next Cy Young. What pitching prospect have they traded that truly was an impact player in the last 5 years? Answer: Gio Gonzales but we got quality in return for him. We just traded unproven major league talent for unproven major league talent. A gamble, of course, but isn't that the best part of a trade? Did we get the better of the other team. Only time will tell, but we needed a CFer and considering the options, this was a great deal. Well done RAJ and now go get Young.— bmcw
- Agree with Sam Crow. Provided we get Young and sign Swisher, Ross or Hairston (that order, in my view) -- we've improved. We added youth, speed and defense in Revere and power in Young and one of the aforementioned outfielders.
Keep this in mind: Michael Young will be in the final contract year of his careeer. At age 36, if he has a strong season, a two- or three-year deal awaits, probably in the AL where he can DH. He has a lot to prove after a down year in 2011. If he's smart, he accepts the trade and falls in love with the short left field porch at CBP. I'm willing to bet Cliff Lee (former teammate) has called or texted Young already.
— eman - Revere is a great kid and an exciting player. He'll get on base and is lightening fast on the base paths. Great outfield range. Here is the downside -- Philly fans will wrench their necks watching runners go from first to third on their new center fielder.— KD from MN
- poor ruben gets his pocket picked every single time. I bet the other teams cant wait till he gets to the winter meetings, they know he is over matched— stayoutofphilly
- Murph gets worse with every read. Amazing how poorly he can interpret all his data. Grat trade of a # 4 starter and May who was HORRIBLE last year with an ERA about 5 most of the season and many multi HR games... for a base stealing lead off guy who has the speed to keep Ruf in the line up. Saving 80 mill from Bourne allows a power hitter, even Hamilton to be added, or 4th starter (marcum), 8th inn Mike Adams, and a Cody Ross with the monet not spent on Bourne. This Should gett Rollins to hit further down, and we got younger. Add Ruf and next year Asche and we have some infused youth. Perfect time to sell Worley. Murph is depressing, he might actually be Dopebiscuit— WFChamps
- May was a Top 100 prospect going into 2012, but by the end of 2012 he wasn't even Top 20 in his league (Eastern). Worley is an inconsistent pitcher who caught lightning in a bottle his rookie season. He's not well conditioned, and that leads to fatigue in the late innings. Amaro made a good trade getting anything of value for these guys, before their stock plummets any further. The naysayers are free to jump on the Nationals bandwagon, where they'll fit in perfectly with clueless fans.— Dave14
- Folks need to get it through their heads that J-Roll is not batting anywhere but first. And Utley is not batting second. I'm all for getting younger but it is very clear our own front office has no faith in it's own young players stepping in when big contracts depart (Werth, Ibanez, Polanco, etc). The time for riding the big 3 of Utley, Rollins and Howard is drawing down, but of the 3, 2 contracts are still in play for a few years to come. It is that elephant in the room that has hamstrung this team; while it ages, it cannot be moved due to the high dollar value of the contract. Thus we are witness to one purge of young prospects after another.....
I like the optimism of Bearsfriend, but I have no faith in seeing youngsters stepping in. Rather, they are nothing but trade fodder for another overpriced trade for a mid to late thirties player whose best days are behind him. Or in the case of Revere, he assumes a position that was looked on for some RBI production...— DelawareRiverRat
