A Phillies trade market primer
We've addressed the Phillies' options on the free agent market at length, but Ruben Amaro Jr. sounds like a man who knows he might have to swing a deal to accomplish all of his goals for this offseason. So let's take a look at the chips the Phillies have in their possession.
A Phillies trade market primer
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We've addressed the Phillies' options on the free agent market at length, but Ruben Amaro Jr. sounds like a man who knows he might have to swing a deal to accomplish all of his goals for this offseason. So let's take a look at the chips the Phillies have in their possession.
First, let's identify a rough blueprint of what it usually costs to obtain a premiere player:
1) A blue-chip prospect who is major league ready, one solid prospect, one young prospect with upside
OR
2) A young major league pitcher who projects as a middle-of-the-rotation guy, one very good prospect, one reliever/rotational position player/young prospect/former top prospect
Phillies' assets, and their value on the trade market
1) Vance Worley, RHP - We're starting with Worley because we wrote about him in the paper and on the blog as being a guy who could attract some serious interest as a part of a package for a front-line hitter. The most comparable pitcher traded over the past few years is Trevor Cahill, who was dealt along with set-up man Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks last year for pitching prospect Jarrod Parker and a couple of throw-in players.
Cahill's numbers at the time of the deal: 24 years old, 583 IP, 3.91 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
Vance Worley's current numbers: 25 years old, 277 2/3 IP, 3.50 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
The big difference is the innings pitch. Cahill had already shown he could pitch 200 innings and stay strong the next year. Worley has not reached 150 in either of his two full seasons. He also was shut down with an elbow injury that required non-serious surgery to remove bone chips. He is expected to be full strength by spring training. It's tough to make an argument that Worley would be as valued as Cahill, but they could certainly be in the same neighborhood. Parker was rated the No. 26 prospect by Baseball America prior to last season, so I think it is fair to say that the Phillies could approach teams with the idea that he should be valued in that neighborhood. Not a blue-chip prospect that would alone land a premiere player. But certainly an important piece of a package.
2) Jesse Biddle, LHP - He had a great year at high-A with a 3.22 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9. And he just turned 21. He isn't a blue-chipper, but he is a Top 100 guy.
3) Tommy Joseph, C: Acquired from the Giants in the Hunter Pence trade, he isn't a blue-chipper. In fact, he wasn't even a Top 100 prospect in Baseball America's annual rankings last year. But he is a young catcher with power and good presence behind the plate. He was good enough to get the Giants a year-and-a-half of Hunter Pence. Not a guy who would be the centerpiece of a package for a frontline player, but a potential second piece.
4) Trevor May, RHP - He had an inconsistent year at Double-A Reading and his stock has slipped some. But most scouts still view him as the team's No. 1 or No. 2 pitching prospect.
5) Domonic Brown, OF - I can't imagine that the Phillies would be able to build a package with Brown as a centerpiece for a premiere player. You have to think that his value would be somewhere similar to what Cameron Maybin's was when the Marlins shipped him to San Diego in exchange for a pair of solid (although not set-up grade) relievers in Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.
Maybin's numbers at the time of the deal: 24 years old, 610 PA, .246/.313/.380, 82 OPS+, 13 HR, 19 SB
Brown's numbers thus far: 25 years old, 492 PA, .236/.315/.388, 90 OPS+, 12 HR, 5 SB
For a true frontline player, I would think that Brown would be a third piece. He's a guy who, straight up, might be swapped for a set-up man. Of course, there could be teams that value him a lot higher.
6) Sebastian Valle, C: My sense is that Valle would have slightly less value than Joseph. He could be the second piece in a trade built around a blue-chip prospect, but might be a third piece if the centerpiece is not a blue-chipper.
7) Brody Colvin, RHP: He's had some rough patches thus far in his career, but he is young, and he has the kind of tools that scouts get addicted to.
8) Roman Quinn, SS: He is a potential blue-chipper, but too young and unproven to be a centerpiece guy. Another second piece type, though I'm not sure the Phillies would be willing to trade him.
9) Larry Greene, OF: He'd be a young prospect with upside type.
10) Phillippe Aumont, RHP: The fact that he is a reliever limits his value.
11) Adam Morgan, LHP: Near major league ready, back-to-middle projectability
12) Jonathan Pettibone, RHP: Same as Morgan.
So what does all of this mean?
I would have to think that any trade for a frontline player would have to include either Worley or Biddle. It would also have to include one of Joseph/May/Valle and one of Brown/Colvin/Quinn/Greene/Aumont/Morgan/Pettibone.
Again, that's for a premiere player (Justin Upton, etc.). I'm not sure how many true premiere players are available besides Upton.
"Tommy Joseph .. isn't a blue-chipper... wasn't even a Top 100 prospect .. not a guy who would be the centerpiece of a package for a frontline player" ..yet this is all the clueless imbecile was able to get for his trade of Hunter Pence for whom he had paid 4 blue chippers...Is there anythig more blatant that needs to be said to cement this Bube as the biggest imbecile to run a sports franchise— warbiscuit- Tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- 4 blue chippers? What a moronic dopey loser idiot tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- clueless imbecile has absolutley no idea what to do.. too busy trying to justify the $105 million still due over the next 4 yrs to pay a should-be platooning d.h. (Howard), another 40 mil. due to be paid to a g@dawful closer who can only be counted on to blow any important game, and a 40-man roster devoid of any talent or prospects whatsoever after one or 2 good pitchers (hamels, Lee)...the imbecile has flushed this franchise down the #$%%%%, and now fans need to wait a few yrs for when someone competent can begin to figure out how to rebuild from scratch— warbiscuit
- Moron — DogBiscuitthedope
- see Clueless Rube working diligently to strengthen bullpen, 3rd base, infield, outfield... watching the imbecile at non-work is quite elucidating ... but could be worse for alas at this point last year he was busy adding such brilliant players like Dontrelle Willis, Pineiro, Wigginton, Qualls, etc --- cementing his reputation as biggest imbecile in sports— warbiscuit
- Loser — DogBiscuitthedope
- in absence of clear-cut 'superstars' whom one can overpay, teams must have the ability to spot hidden gems or undervalued finds, something that Clueless Rube ranks no. 30 on among any 30 g.m.s --not only has he no idea how to evaluate players -- and is a certainty to get pure useless trash when getting less than "elite" (see 2011 signings of Willis, Pineiro, Qualls, thome, etc) -- but he doesn't even understand his own team's makepup or needs ..how this guy continues to be a g.m......if this were the Arab Spring the protests would have had him flee the coutry already— warbiscuit
- Idiot — DogBiscuitthedope
All of this speculating by the bored writers of this cyber fish rag are a waste of time. Amaro goes to bed at night crying into his pillow because no one will play with him. My guess is that most GMs are laughing at him behind his back. Ever since Pat Gillick turned the reigns over to Amaro, it's been all downhill and comical.- warbiscuit shutup already you loser— AlexSp
- Good column by David. With the suspension of Chooch pending and the realization that his active bat last season may have been due to "extra vitamins" to quote an old Phils centerfielder, I think Tommy Joseph holds more value to this team then we may think. We got lucky in Cliff Lee, Part 1 in that Lou Marson did not pan out to be the catcher we thought he would be on our team. Let's not push our luck with TJ.
Revisiting Cliff Lee, Part 2, nowhere do I see David mentioning a name from that trade: Tyson Gillies. Is he a part of this team's future plans? I question that in light of the teams pursuit of a centerfielder. Kind of makes the Cliff Lee to Seattle trade even more ill advised....
Oh well, a nothing week but it was fun talking pinstripes instead of the soap opera going on with the football team. The next 2.5 weeks will be telling in what RAJ had in mind this week down here in Nashville.— DelawareRiverRat - What RAJ has in mind? Probably not much, unless you're talking about a blue light special without a warranty. Now THAT'S where our GM shines. Something for nothing.....
- so if instead of trading Pence for close to absolutely nothing last July, considering how expensive outfielders are this winter, is there anyone outside of the Clueless Rube who couldn't get more for Pence this winter than a double A .250 hitting non-prospect?— warbiscuit
- Ahhhhhhhhh..the pre-2006 fans have awoken. Common sense doesn't get thrown out the window for sake of appeasing you fools. So Atlanta pays a lifetime .250 hitter $15 million per season, SF pays a guy who was traded for a dude who was waived $10 million, and Boston pays the Shane $13 million for a guy who hit .262. Yet no one cares about John Mayberry Jr. who also hit .250, or Dom Brown, who has the ability to hit well IF left alone to stay in the league w/o being shipped to AAA each time he swings/misses. Darin Ruf can hit MLB pitching and will earn his place in left field.— drhoffman
