Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton.
Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
UPDATE (5:20 p.m.): Ruben Amaro strongly denied the Lee-Upton report, saying "I don't comment on rumors but that one is absolutely and unequivocally false."
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The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton. Keep in mind that this is still just a bit of gossip forwarded via Twitter, so we don't really have a good handle on how serious things might be.
Still, here is why it would make sense:
The free agent market is ridiculously pricey right now, with reports out of Boston that Shane Victorino has been offered somewhere around three years and 38 million. There simply are no bargains to be had. Even Jonny Gomes signed for two years and $10 million. I'll write more on this later, but I've been doing some crude Consumer Price Index type comparisons between contracts last year and contracts this year, and my current working estimate is that we're seeing between 40 and 50 percent inflation (Example: Cody Ross signed for one year and $3 million last year. Gomes' numbers are similar to Ross'. Gomes landed $5 million per year. That's a 40 percent 60 percent increase over what a similar player received last year in AAV).
At this point, teams are going to overpay at any end of the spectrum. The question is how much do they feel comfortable overpaying. I really get the sense that the Phillies are not in a position to be overpaying anybody. They need value. And Upton represents a value. He has three years and $38 million left on his contract in Arizona. Cliff Lee has three years and $87.5 million remaining. Clearly the Phillies would have to kick in some cash, or prospects, or both. But they'd be saving a ton and addressing a need by adding Upton, and the starting pitching market is one place where prices do not appear to be outlandish. At least there are some options. Like, for example, the Phillies could trade Lee for Upton and then go out and try to land a pitcher like Anibal Sanchez. Or, hell, maybe they make a late entrance into the Zack Greinke bidding. Regardless, pitching is a strength right now for the Phillies. Outfield is a weakness. The outfield market is overpriced. It could make sense to swap a strength to bolster a weakness and save some money to address their other areas of need. Look, Cliff Lee has been everything the Phillies hoped he would be when they signed him. But when they signed him they thought they had a championship caliber lineup. They clearly do not. And given the zaniness of the current market, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company just might have to audible.
Comments (59)
that's it rube, keep trading pitching until you have none left— 1stamendment- Look, even adding Upton, the Phillies would not be an offensive juggernaut. So without great starting pitching, they're not winning anything. In fact, Washington might even have better starting pitching than the Phillies do, so the Phillies cannot give up one of their best. This team will not win with offense; it will win (if at all) with pitching. If you get rid of Lee, you're rebuilding. Are we ready for that?— Bartleby
- Schmeckman, Justin Upton career numbers doesn't look that good in part because he had a .219 BA and .543 OPS in 2007, his rookie year at age 19, and a .196 and .562 in 2008. In 2009 he pretty good numbers on the road, .296 BA and .862 OPS, and in 2010 .264 and .764 OPS, not great but decent. The last two years he didn't have Mike Reynolds to protect him and Stephen Drew, one of their table setters, has been hurt a lot. Plus Chris John and Miguel Montero has been hitting in the clean up spot behind him, not your typical sluggers aand Will Bloomquist, Tony Abreu and Gerardo Parra hitting in front of him. You bet he hasn't seen a lot of good pitches to hit.— EL Zorro
- tobyjoe, you might like this article on Lee's 2012 season:
http://crashburnalley.com/2012/11/15/cliff-lee-had-a-pretty-good-season/— schmenkman - What was Lee's record last season?How can you not see Lee like THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL (LMAO) is done.You dumb butts talk about Howard's contract choking the phils,Idon't see where Lee has done anything to earn his money.Your love for nothing is amazing.I'd make the trade and move Upton to cf he's young enough.I read a lot of DUMB RUBES ON HERE.This team needs to get younger,and they need to do it PRONTO.— tobyjoe
- sorry morons Halladay is officially washed up, see, e.g. Roy Halladay 2011 season..Phils are down to 2 good pitchers (Hamels and Lee) and if they jetison Lee for another bucket of useless trash (see, e.g. salary dumps of Messrs. Victorino, Pence, Blanton) they'll be down to 1 good player left on their 40-man roster (Hamels)— warbiscuit
- How did you feel at the moment the Phils clinched the 2008 championship? — escapedcamden4monterey
- only sure thing is Clueless Rube will get it wrong royally --strikes out on 98% of every move and signing he's made in 4 yrs --biggest imbecile to run a professional sports franchise (makes Eagles mgmt look like geniuses by comparison)...overpays by 200% to 500% in cash or value for any "name" acquired (e.g.Oswalt, Pence) and then gets useless trash when he tried to discard a "name" (e.g. Pence, Victorino, Blanton, Lee)... having an imbecile continue to destroy this franchise is dumber than having Andy Reid continue to make personnel decisions....— warbiscuit
- I see that the Dodgers are trying to trade Dee Gordon. He is an athlete amd maybe he could play third or flip flop with Utley or Jimmy Stroll for an infield position. Would like to see the Phillies pick him up - would add some speed to a stale lineup. Upton woul not be bad addition but I would rather have somebody like Cameron Maybin from San Diego who is a natural centerfielder. Neither Hamilton or Upton are anything more than average as centerfielders.
I hope the Phillies are not hanging their hats on Ruf hitting 40 homeruns+ right off the bat in his first few years . Would be glad if I am wrong about not buying into all the hype that Ruf has got in just 10 games or so in the majors. Up until last year he hit very few long balls. In the major leagues, it will not take pitchers long to find his weaknesses, if he has any. We don't want to be looking for a new left fielder two months into the season like what happened with Ben Francisco in right field a couple of years ago. If that were to happen....Charlie Manuel would be in much the same position as Andy Reid found himself when a few hyped players could not produce in clutch situations.
— candidly - Others have mentioned that Upton doesn't hit that well on the road.
These are his career stats away from hitter-friendly Chase Field:
.250/.325/.406 (.731 OPS)
2012 on the road:
.252/.326/.344 (.670 OPS)— schmenkman - That would be a dumb move. Never give up great pitching for mediocre .280 hitter with 17 HRs last year.— chollie
- It is ridiculous to listen to posters crying about Lee blowing a game a few years ago. Get real. You'd trade him for a box of used balls because you don't have a clue as to how the staff would shape up. Many have given up on Werley because of last season. The kid has talent, you don't give young players away, you develop them. Well, Amaro may be the exception.
Bring Gillick back , please !— phineas - Gillick was known more for trading guys, not developing them. The "developed" core he won with came from Ed Wade. Part of the reason you develop players is to trade some of them while their value is high. Who wouldn't have liked to have traded a guy like Brown when he was at elite prospect peak status a few years ago? We'll probably never see that value from him again. Lee is a great pitcher but are you developing young players or hanging on to old ones? There is no one answer. Bottom line is every GM should be looking to trade almost any player for the right piece(s) in return. — s
- Justin Upton at age 24 already has 108 HR. He's just entering the prime of his career an is under team control for the next 3 years at "only'' $38 millions while the Phillies owed the 33-year-old Lee $87.5 million for the same amount of time just to pitch every 5th day. It makes a lot of sense to me getting one of the best young players in the game relatively cheap and under control for the next 3 years for an overpaid veteran who probably saw his best years. Most of you probably forgot Upton hit 31 HR at age 23 a year ago.
— EL Zorro - Fourth in MVP voting that year, Silver Slugger and all-star. He also has decent, above average fielding numbers but he's going to be better at a corner. He's much better than his brother in my opinion.
— s - It makes a lot of sense for the Phillies because Upton is exactly what they need, a very goo young player. Like the article said, the Phillies have to address the OF situation while they can get a good pitcher in free agency. Now, it doesn't make sense for Arizona unless they trade Lee to Texas for Elvis Andrus and one or two of their best prospects no named Profar.— EL Zorro
- Keep Lee. Next time he's up for grabs, he won't surprise us by changing his mind and coming to the Phillies rather than the Yankees. Keep Lee.— RichieLemon
- This reporter is silly and, hell, I can't believe he's still on staff.— Mick40
- Power on the road in 2012: J.Upton 6HR and 20RBI in just over 300AB. John Mayberry 7HR and 24RBI with just over 200AB.— escapedcamden4monterey
- God help us there is no truth to this ridiculous rumor.— Sam Crow
- It makes no sense to move Lee when you have no idea if Doc can bounce back and be effective next year. I don't care who is in center field, if the rotation is Hamels, Worley and Kendrick and two others not yet known the Phillies simply can not compete with the Nationals and Braves.— DennisAtwell
- I'm glad to see the Phillies are making the necessary moves to stay competitive with their division rivals. Oh wait. It's the division rivals making all the moves to improve their teams. My bad.— scootch
- Lee for Upton doesn't seem to make any sense for EITHER team. And why would the Phils deal Lee and then try to sign Greinke or Sanchez? With the current market either of those two would make at least what Lee and probably considerably more, but neither of them is as good as Lee. And while Upton would look good in a Phillies uniform, he is a corner OF with only moderate power, worth giving up a bevy of prospects for but not a surefire, top of the lineup ace like Cliff.— Dante1138
- Upton for Lee - HIGHLY improbable.
Upton for Phils pitching prospects (pick your duo/trio) - quite plausible.
Fowler for Phils pitching prospects (more modest package) - also quite plausible.
You're welcome.— FishFryFrank - The latest is that Texas and Josh Hamilton are making progress in their talks He may end up staying there. Amaro is an a-hole who makes the team worse every year.— Marie Elena
- Ryan - I'm inclined to agree with you. the guy never lost when up that many runs and he blew it. Wonderful pitcher, great control, works fast, etc. BUT he did blow that game and he has been givin a pass on that.
Don't know much bout upton but its a very viable option.— DG3 - The market is playing out as I expected. Upton/Pagan/Victorino are being overpaid to play CF. RAJ understands this and won't go there. The Lee for Upton (other Upton) makes no sense at all, if the Phillies intend on competing this season. Based on the National's rotation, moving Lee would make the Phillies rotation 3rd best in the NL east. Time to be smart. Wait out the market for now. Bourn may get the money, but is that all that matter for Bourn? 5-6 years in Cleveland's pergatory? Hamilton will most likely go back to Texas unless (shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh RAJ may have something up his sleeve.) Reality check though, I'd rather have Ruf/Mayberry/Brown than pay a guy like Victorino $13.5 million. His .262 BA is barely better than Mayberry's. Mayberry earn's 1/12 of Victornio yet puts up almost equal numbers. That is the reality of the current free agent market. Just because desperate teams with cash throw it to the wind, doesn't make sound baseball sense. Heard Nate McClouth is looking for a one year deal to re-establish his market value. Could be a possibility too. Time to know when to hold/fold.— drhoffman
- Phillies starters last year tied for the Nats for top WHIP. Other than that they fared no better than 7th in any meaningful category in the NL. They also gave up the most HRs. We can all play the game we played with the position players for years and throw in the old "if healthy" clause but the fact is both Halladay and Lee are probably looking at their better years in the rear view mirror. I'm not saying they can't have great years but we shouldn't get so tied to the idea that this is the top rotation in the league. It WAS maybe. Now is another story. To me, the three and four aces deal was all about a 3-4 year window that's now over. — s
- How many hitters can you name who, after being traded away from Arizona, do as well in their next location? I am waiting... That is the answer. Okay, now that the pantry is bare of free-agent center fielders, the Phillies are down to Michael Bourne who will want a trunkful of money. Or, they could go for broke and take a chance on Hamilton. Of course, Bourne may be in a corner because the teams that most needed center fielders have gotten them. He could end up the Ryan Madson of 2012. It is fun watching it play out. Frankly, I haven't seen a single signing that made me wish we had gotten him!— gotedge
- Carlos Quentin definitely. You could also make a pretty good case for both Travis Lee and Rod Barajas. — s
- No way Amaro trades Lee. Halladay's health is a big question mark and Halladay, not Lee, could be off the payroll in 2014. The smarter play is if Halladay pitches well and we're not contending by mid-season 2013, you trade Halladay as a rent-a-starter -- meaning, you keep Hamels, Lee and Worley entering 2014. As great as he's been, if there's an odd man out in our rotation in 2013 or next off-season, it's Roy Halladay.
— eman - Halladay will not likely meet the incentives needed to land him a 2014 year with the Phillies. So figure he's gone after next year unless he really bounces back and the Phillies extend him. Problem is, either way he's 37 in 2014. The average age of WS pitchers is around 30. And Lee is only 9 months behind Halladay in age. Fans have to face the fact that the window for both guys is about shut and they're both headed for declining years. If you can move one or both you do it and deal with it. If you signed a guy like Sanchez, for example, is there a big (or any) drop-off? Also remember that the Phillies have a lot of young arms and one or two should be big leaguers soon. Pettibone and May could be ready by 2014 or even later in 2013. We should get a good look at both in spring training. — s
- The same Lee for Upton rumor was out there at the trade deadline. There's probably at least some truth to it. I disagree that the Phillies have pitching strength. They MAY have pitching strength. There are too many question marks. We have no idea if Halladay can bounce back, Worley is coming off surgery and a so-so year before that and we've seen Kendrick's ups and downs as a starter. Hamels and Lee are the two you'd put your money on at this point. On the other hand I've been saying since summer that there's a lot sense in trading Lee if you can get the right piece(s) in return. It's a big salary and a lot of years and you should be able to get a decent younger pitcher with what you save. A lot depends on how much (if any) salary the Phillies would have to eat.
I'm a Cliff Lee fan but if he can get a guy like Justin Upton you have to consider it. Halladay would definitely also have to be considered if anyone was asking but after his questionable 2012 I doubt he's a guy many GM's want to take a chance on. Perhaps at the trade deadline if it's clear he's not coming back in 2014 and he's bounced back and has some value ... depending also on whether the Phillies can be in the race in 2023 at the trade deadline.— s - lol 2013. If we have to wait until 2023 ... well, iI guess it will be like the 70's or something. — s
- Another interesting thing here if true is Upton played RF for Arizona. Can he play CF and play it well? IDK. They'd definitely need another starter if they do this, and IDK if Greinke could handle the media pressure here. Sanchez isn't a FA so they'd have to trade for him.
- Murph - Pitching is a strength right now BECAUSE WE HAVE LEE!! Drop Lee from our rotation and who is our #3, 4, and 5? This is a stupid trade and should only happen if we get Greinke FIRST. I would love Upton, but give the Dbacks something else. Lee for Upton is just dumb.— BleedPhilly
- And how many other teams have over $65 mil in payroll committed to 3 starting pitchers? I know it's easy to spend other people's money but you can't pay everybody $20 million. To answer your question you'd still have Hamels and Halladay at the top, Worley and Kendrick in the middle, and they'd almost certainly sign or trade for another starter at least until one of the top minor league arms is ready for the call. What this team needs above all else right now is consistent run production and bullpen help. They used to be constructed to beat teams 8-7, then they tried changing to beat teams 2-1 which obviously hasn't worked. Gotta veer back toward some middle ground and try to bolster other areas that don't involve handing out 9 figure contracts to guys who pitch every fifth day — stikolaboloni
- Rumors are fun. Amaro worked hard to get Lee twice. I doubt he's looking to dump him. Amaro wants strong starters. That's his plan to be the Braves of the 1990's.— Phillies2008WSChamps
- we used to be the team that added a piece like Upton. Now we've become the team that needs to weaken one area to shore up another. We are no longer in the driver's seat to acquire free agents so value-for-value trades all that is left.
Someone else needs to explain how sending Cliff Lee away for Justin Upton helps us close and almost 20-game gap between the Nats and ourselves, and that was prior to the Nats' addition of Denard Span and Dan Haren.
Ruin Tomorrow, Jr. has lived up to his name and then some!— advantasux - Well, the Phillies won 12 games last year that Lee started. Arizona won 73 games that Upton started. Spend the money you save from Lee's contract on bullpen help or somewhere else and that sounds like a good start to me
- Hell, why not just pay the money for Hamilton or Bourne and not give up anybody? As long as everybody's overpaying, we might as well get one of the better options. If Vic is worth $13 mil per, Bourne's a steal at 17 or so and Hamilton might be worth $25 or so. Charlie just said he loves him.— cuyatm
- "But when they signed him they thought they had a championship caliber lineup. They clearly do not." - substitute the word 'pitcher' for 'lineup' and that's Cliff Lee. Spare me what he did in September against minor league callups. The Cardinals shelled him when it counted in the playoffs last year just like San Fran in the World Series the year before. Upton is a 2x All-Star who is 10 years younger, half the price and plays a position of need. I make that trade 7 days out of 7 especially if it gives you the flexibility to fill other holes. Phillies have plenty of pitching in their system
- we have the worst gms as a city— passi0natephillyfan
- It better be false. I want a refund of my season ticket money if they trade Lee (again). Trade washed up Halladay instead.— Larry Brown
- Tell me when the ink is dry.— Rotcod
- No. No. No. No. No.— fentonhardy
- Dumping salary for run at Hamilton?— philly thug
- The real question is, what fool would pay Shane Victorino $13 million/year?!! That's just insane. I might sign him for $5 million/year. $3.5 million and incentives would be even better. The guy just isn't a premier player anymore.
— TexColorado - The salary dump would be attractive, but can the Phillies take the chance that Halladay will return to form if an injury-riddled season? And are Cliff Lee's rare talents (as a durable and reliable pitcher and hitter) worth losing in return for Upton whose numbers make him Shane Victorino, circa 2011 (albeit younger)? In other words, is giving up your (currently) second best pitcher worth in return 90-100 RBI per season with decent power or 60 RBI per season with little power. - and the rumor is that some cash reimbursement will go west with Lee rather than east with Upton.
I don't like it.
— wbramh - I'd do it. Lee is a bust. I'm still mad at him for coughing up that 4 run lead in the NLDS against the Cards two years ago. That 2011 Team was absolutely incredible, and Lee denied them the WS they deserved— Ryan
- Amaro says there are no such discussions. Sources from Arizona are saying the same thing...unfortunately.— BubbaChuck03
- Jon Heymond just reported--Phils person in know said there is no truth to this rumour. Translation: don't get your hopes up people.— tothehouse
- Wow if Amaro trades Lee again he is an idiot. Bring back Pat Gillick please. Every year Amaro makes the team worse, and is spending almost double the money. He has no clue, he just loves the spot light. I can goon and on but I am sick of all this nonsense.— wildgreenman
- Not really sure what to make of this. It seems to me like they would be putting a lot of trust in Halladay coming back to form and then they would still need to sign a pitcher like Greinke or Sanchez like the article states. So by trading Lee, they save $48.5 mil minus whatever cash they would be kicking in, which translates to $16 mil a year minus the cash. Also, this does nothing to solve the Center Field position.— sjuhawk416
- Why not include more info about Upton in this article...most fans probably don't know much about Upton, does he hustle and play hard? does he have an attitude problem?...I guess we will have to google Upton since this writer didn't give the proper info in this article..like he should have.— jim35
- I thought Arizona wanted to unload Upton to cut salary, so acquiring Cliff Lee makes no sense. Seems to me they would want just the prospects. Our rotation could be in pretty bad shape without Lee if Halladay doesn't bounce back and if Worley and KK are more like the 2012 versions and not the 2011 versions.
- Arizona would likely try to flip Lee for a shortstop. Maybe Andrus from Texas. — BubbaChuck03
- With all the talk of Arizona wanting a young shortstop, is there any thought the Phillies would trade Galvis? — s
Murph, The increase you used as an example from Ross's $3M to Gomes's $5M is a 66% increase. It still makes your point, though.— John621
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