Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton.
Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
UPDATE (5:20 p.m.): Ruben Amaro strongly denied the Lee-Upton report, saying "I don't comment on rumors but that one is absolutely and unequivocally false."
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The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton. Keep in mind that this is still just a bit of gossip forwarded via Twitter, so we don't really have a good handle on how serious things might be.
Still, here is why it would make sense:
The free agent market is ridiculously pricey right now, with reports out of Boston that Shane Victorino has been offered somewhere around three years and 38 million. There simply are no bargains to be had. Even Jonny Gomes signed for two years and $10 million. I'll write more on this later, but I've been doing some crude Consumer Price Index type comparisons between contracts last year and contracts this year, and my current working estimate is that we're seeing between 40 and 50 percent inflation (Example: Cody Ross signed for one year and $3 million last year. Gomes' numbers are similar to Ross'. Gomes landed $5 million per year. That's a 40 percent 60 percent increase over what a similar player received last year in AAV).
At this point, teams are going to overpay at any end of the spectrum. The question is how much do they feel comfortable overpaying. I really get the sense that the Phillies are not in a position to be overpaying anybody. They need value. And Upton represents a value. He has three years and $38 million left on his contract in Arizona. Cliff Lee has three years and $87.5 million remaining. Clearly the Phillies would have to kick in some cash, or prospects, or both. But they'd be saving a ton and addressing a need by adding Upton, and the starting pitching market is one place where prices do not appear to be outlandish. At least there are some options. Like, for example, the Phillies could trade Lee for Upton and then go out and try to land a pitcher like Anibal Sanchez. Or, hell, maybe they make a late entrance into the Zack Greinke bidding. Regardless, pitching is a strength right now for the Phillies. Outfield is a weakness. The outfield market is overpriced. It could make sense to swap a strength to bolster a weakness and save some money to address their other areas of need. Look, Cliff Lee has been everything the Phillies hoped he would be when they signed him. But when they signed him they thought they had a championship caliber lineup. They clearly do not. And given the zaniness of the current market, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company just might have to audible.
- Fourth in MVP voting that year, Silver Slugger and all-star. He also has decent, above average fielding numbers but he's going to be better at a corner. He's much better than his brother in my opinion.
— s - It is ridiculous to listen to posters crying about Lee blowing a game a few years ago. Get real. You'd trade him for a box of used balls because you don't have a clue as to how the staff would shape up. Many have given up on Werley because of last season. The kid has talent, you don't give young players away, you develop them. Well, Amaro may be the exception.
Bring Gillick back , please !— phineas - Gillick was known more for trading guys, not developing them. The "developed" core he won with came from Ed Wade. Part of the reason you develop players is to trade some of them while their value is high. Who wouldn't have liked to have traded a guy like Brown when he was at elite prospect peak status a few years ago? We'll probably never see that value from him again. Lee is a great pitcher but are you developing young players or hanging on to old ones? There is no one answer. Bottom line is every GM should be looking to trade almost any player for the right piece(s) in return. — s
- That would be a dumb move. Never give up great pitching for mediocre .280 hitter with 17 HRs last year.— chollie
- Others have mentioned that Upton doesn't hit that well on the road.
These are his career stats away from hitter-friendly Chase Field:
.250/.325/.406 (.731 OPS)
2012 on the road:
.252/.326/.344 (.670 OPS)— schmenkman - I see that the Dodgers are trying to trade Dee Gordon. He is an athlete amd maybe he could play third or flip flop with Utley or Jimmy Stroll for an infield position. Would like to see the Phillies pick him up - would add some speed to a stale lineup. Upton woul not be bad addition but I would rather have somebody like Cameron Maybin from San Diego who is a natural centerfielder. Neither Hamilton or Upton are anything more than average as centerfielders.
I hope the Phillies are not hanging their hats on Ruf hitting 40 homeruns+ right off the bat in his first few years . Would be glad if I am wrong about not buying into all the hype that Ruf has got in just 10 games or so in the majors. Up until last year he hit very few long balls. In the major leagues, it will not take pitchers long to find his weaknesses, if he has any. We don't want to be looking for a new left fielder two months into the season like what happened with Ben Francisco in right field a couple of years ago. If that were to happen....Charlie Manuel would be in much the same position as Andy Reid found himself when a few hyped players could not produce in clutch situations.
— candidly - only sure thing is Clueless Rube will get it wrong royally --strikes out on 98% of every move and signing he's made in 4 yrs --biggest imbecile to run a professional sports franchise (makes Eagles mgmt look like geniuses by comparison)...overpays by 200% to 500% in cash or value for any "name" acquired (e.g.Oswalt, Pence) and then gets useless trash when he tried to discard a "name" (e.g. Pence, Victorino, Blanton, Lee)... having an imbecile continue to destroy this franchise is dumber than having Andy Reid continue to make personnel decisions....— warbiscuit
- sorry morons Halladay is officially washed up, see, e.g. Roy Halladay 2011 season..Phils are down to 2 good pitchers (Hamels and Lee) and if they jetison Lee for another bucket of useless trash (see, e.g. salary dumps of Messrs. Victorino, Pence, Blanton) they'll be down to 1 good player left on their 40-man roster (Hamels)— warbiscuit
- How did you feel at the moment the Phils clinched the 2008 championship? — escapedcamden4monterey
- What was Lee's record last season?How can you not see Lee like THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL (LMAO) is done.You dumb butts talk about Howard's contract choking the phils,Idon't see where Lee has done anything to earn his money.Your love for nothing is amazing.I'd make the trade and move Upton to cf he's young enough.I read a lot of DUMB RUBES ON HERE.This team needs to get younger,and they need to do it PRONTO.— tobyjoe
- tobyjoe, you might like this article on Lee's 2012 season:
http://crashburnalley.com/2012/11/15/cliff-lee-had-a-pretty-good-season/— schmenkman - Schmeckman, Justin Upton career numbers doesn't look that good in part because he had a .219 BA and .543 OPS in 2007, his rookie year at age 19, and a .196 and .562 in 2008. In 2009 he pretty good numbers on the road, .296 BA and .862 OPS, and in 2010 .264 and .764 OPS, not great but decent. The last two years he didn't have Mike Reynolds to protect him and Stephen Drew, one of their table setters, has been hurt a lot. Plus Chris John and Miguel Montero has been hitting in the clean up spot behind him, not your typical sluggers aand Will Bloomquist, Tony Abreu and Gerardo Parra hitting in front of him. You bet he hasn't seen a lot of good pitches to hit.— EL Zorro
- Look, even adding Upton, the Phillies would not be an offensive juggernaut. So without great starting pitching, they're not winning anything. In fact, Washington might even have better starting pitching than the Phillies do, so the Phillies cannot give up one of their best. This team will not win with offense; it will win (if at all) with pitching. If you get rid of Lee, you're rebuilding. Are we ready for that?— Bartleby
- that's it rube, keep trading pitching until you have none left— 1stamendment
