Leading off: Why Yadier Molina's contract won't impact Carlos Ruiz's next deal, plus today's newspaper stories
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Leading off: Why Yadier Molina's contract won't impact Carlos Ruiz's next deal, plus today's newspaper stories
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
In the wake of Yadier Molina's five-year, $75 million contract extension with the Cardinals, several emailers wondered whether Carlos Ruiz will be in line for a big pay-day once his current contract expires. As valuable as Ruiz has been for the Phillies, the comparison isn't a fair one.
For starters, Ruiz will be 33 years old this season and he still has a $5 million option for 2013. So he won't be hitting free agency until he is entering his 35-year-old season. To put that in perspective, when Molina's new deal expires, he will be entering his 34-year-old season. The age difference alone -- Molina will be 29 this season -- is enough to render any comparison moot.
Those making the Molina/Ruiz comparison are probably looking at offensive numbers alone. Over the last three years, Molina has hit .287/.348/.397 (.745 OPS) with 26 home runs in 415 games, 1583 plate appearances. Ruiz has hit .281/.376/.417 (.793 OPS) with 23 home runs in 360 games, 1284 plate appearances.
While Ruiz's numbers are better, Molina has been more durable (55 more games, or more than a third of a season, over the last three years). More importantly, though, is his ability to limit opposing base-stealers, something the Phillies have experienced first hand on many occasions.
A catcher's ability to stop an opponent's running game is difficult to quantify. There are so many different variables outside of the catcher's arm strength. Players will tell you that they don't steal bases against a catcher, they steal them against the pitcher. If a pitcher is slow to the plate, even the strongest of throwers is going to have a difficult time getting the ball to second or third in time.
That being said, we can at least try to get a statistical perspective of Molina's impact. I figure the most intuitive way to do this is to look at how many runners reached base during his time behind the plate, and then look at how many of those runners ended up stealing a base. To do this, we add the number of hits allowed, number of walks allowed, number of hit by pitches, and the number who reached on error, then subtract the number of home runs (since a hitter who hits a home run will never have a chance to steal a base).
In 2011, the Cardinals allowed 1,499 base-runners and 46 stolen bases when Molina was behind the plate. The Phillies allowed 1,215 base-runners and 77 stolen bases when Ruiz behind the plate. In other words, Molina allowed a stolen base once every 32.59 base-runners. Ruiz allowed a stolen base once every 15.78 base-runners. The National League average was one steal for every 17.69 base-runners.
So when Ruiz was behind the plate, he was more than twice as likely to allow a stolen base than when Molina was behind the plate.
Again, Ruiz's pitchers might have been slower to the plate than Molina's. Ruiz might have had runners that were in better base-stealing situations than Molina. It's impossible to say definitively that Molina is twice as much of a deterrent as Ruiz.
But it doesn't take a seasoned scout to see the havoc that Molina's arm can wreak on an opponent. And when you combine that tool with the fact that he is four years younger than Ruiz, you'll find two players whose contract situations are incomparable.
###
Today's Phillies coverage from Clearwater. . .
Fan outrage over the Nationals' "Take Back the Park" campaign is simply playing into Washington's hands. I think that's a good thing. A new I-95 rival is just what we need to spice up the regular season.
Bob Brookover trolls the stat-heads (actually, he takes a look at the Phillies' use, or lack thereof, of advanced metrics)
Matt Gelb looks at the improvement in power on the Phillies' bench.
John Smallwood likes the new playoff format
Buy Phillies tickets 
@gasser, I suck at math....@zorro, thanks....I happen to think there are certain intangibles that impact a team winning games. I do think that Molina as catcher, with this Phillies pitching staff and team D WOULD result in about 8 more wins a year for the Phils....but what do I know? It's a moot point anyway, ain't never gonna happen...besides I have to get back to work at my real job, not my Fantasy one.— Mark1npt- Molina would give the Phillies 8 more wins? How is that possible? If you're talking about his defense and receiving skills, I guess you've missed the last few years when the majority of the pitchers on the Phillies staff RAVE about throwing to Ruiz. Perhaps with a "better" catcher, like Molina, there wouldn't be the same "chemistry" and therefore the team would lose 8 more games per year.
If something isn't broke, why fix it? The Phillies problem is not Ruiz.— Eilex826 - When you have little else to say about a catcher, it defaults to, "the pitchers love to throw to this guy". The same was said in 2006 about Chris Coste. In an article Paul Hagen reported that the likes of Hamels, Moyer, Leiber, Lidle and Wolf all told Manuel how much they liked pitching to Coste.
Icidentally, Both Hagen and Seth Everett penned articles that showed that Ruiz was no better defensively then (at that time) 34-year old Chris Coste.
As far as Molina-Ruiz is concerned, if Molina is overpaid at $15M a year, I would believe Ruiz is worth no more than the $5-6M per year. Just go back to the playoffs last year. While Ruiz was a decent 2 of 5 throwing out would be base stealers, Molina put on a clinic nailing 5 of 6 including Utley in the 6th inning of game 5. Up until that point Utley had converted 57 of his last 59 steal attempts.
Offensively neither had a particularly good series although Molina out hit Ruiz by .200. Right now Molina may be reaching his peak whereas Ruiz may be on the downside of his career. They should both be paid accordingly - Very surprised at the Molina deal. The Cardinals were stingy with Pujols for the last year and a half on an extension and it cost them, but they overpay for Molina? Nobody was gonna give that guy 5 years and 75 mil on the open-market. He just had a career year hitting .300 but he's around a .268 life-time hitter. You don't pay a .268 hitting catcher 15 mil per year, I don't care how good his defense is.— JimG
- Ruiz will be paid fairly by the Phils when his contract comes due.
The Phils would do themselves a big service by making Kratz the everyday backup & moving Schneider down to Lehigh Valley to work with the kids...this would allow Ruiz much needed time off without inserting automatic out in the lineup (Schneider).— kelprod2 - Chooch is a winner, but lets face it, he is no Stan Lopata.
Happy Spring, EZ,— NewMick314 - Question: Is the term 'everyday backup' an oxymoron ?— NewMick314
- Other than last season, Chooch has proven he can be a clutch hitter in the playoffs. While he is not worth Molina money, he is certainly due a raise for 08/09 playoff hitting alone. This will be his last contract so I would overpay for a 3 year deal in case his knees go out. As a fan fave, I suspect something will get done to keep him here.— Sane1
- Ruiz can not throw out base stealers and Schneider is worse. Neither hit at all, so what is all the talk about. I would trade either one of them any day of the week.— eaglesman1
- Ruiz hit .302 in 2010 for the highest average on the team among guys who played most games. His hitting fell of a bit in 2011 but where we really saw that was in the post-season. He still hit .283 in the regular season.
— s - dont know where all the love is for overrated Ruiz --as teh numbers indicate, he's BELOW average at throwing out runners and is no offensive threat period regardless of what his irrlevant battign avg is; as for pitch selection he's probably below Brian Schneider; the ony thing he excels at is blocking the plate -- a skill that wouldnt be as important if he were better at preventing runners from stealing their way into scoring postion in the first place - he's a barely serviceable no. 8 hitter and catcher -nothing more— warbiscuit
- biscuit-You're insane. Eaglesman-You're also insane. Put Ruiz on the market and 20 teams would come calling. His high OBP from the 8 hole means the pitcher doesn't lead off the next inning. You two morons probably don't understand that. Every 8 hole hitter in the NL is at a decided disadvantage at the plate. To manage to hit .260 is admirable considering you never get any fastballs with the pitcher on deck. Idiots.— regassert6
- Let's just call it as it is. The Cardinals overpaid for Molina. Basically we are getting Chooch and a $10MM player for Molina. Or it helps offset the $10MM overpay we have on Howard.— Blue and White
- your statistical analysis assumes the catcher is the only one responsible for base stealers...— ogplaya
- the most important thing about a catcher i8s how he handels the pitching staff, not just throwing out runners, and carlos is one of the best in baseball— rockyman63
