Leading off: Why Yadier Molina's contract won't impact Carlos Ruiz's next deal, plus today's newspaper stories
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Leading off: Why Yadier Molina's contract won't impact Carlos Ruiz's next deal, plus today's newspaper stories
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
In the wake of Yadier Molina's five-year, $75 million contract extension with the Cardinals, several emailers wondered whether Carlos Ruiz will be in line for a big pay-day once his current contract expires. As valuable as Ruiz has been for the Phillies, the comparison isn't a fair one.
For starters, Ruiz will be 33 years old this season and he still has a $5 million option for 2013. So he won't be hitting free agency until he is entering his 35-year-old season. To put that in perspective, when Molina's new deal expires, he will be entering his 34-year-old season. The age difference alone -- Molina will be 29 this season -- is enough to render any comparison moot.
Those making the Molina/Ruiz comparison are probably looking at offensive numbers alone. Over the last three years, Molina has hit .287/.348/.397 (.745 OPS) with 26 home runs in 415 games, 1583 plate appearances. Ruiz has hit .281/.376/.417 (.793 OPS) with 23 home runs in 360 games, 1284 plate appearances.
While Ruiz's numbers are better, Molina has been more durable (55 more games, or more than a third of a season, over the last three years). More importantly, though, is his ability to limit opposing base-stealers, something the Phillies have experienced first hand on many occasions.
A catcher's ability to stop an opponent's running game is difficult to quantify. There are so many different variables outside of the catcher's arm strength. Players will tell you that they don't steal bases against a catcher, they steal them against the pitcher. If a pitcher is slow to the plate, even the strongest of throwers is going to have a difficult time getting the ball to second or third in time.
That being said, we can at least try to get a statistical perspective of Molina's impact. I figure the most intuitive way to do this is to look at how many runners reached base during his time behind the plate, and then look at how many of those runners ended up stealing a base. To do this, we add the number of hits allowed, number of walks allowed, number of hit by pitches, and the number who reached on error, then subtract the number of home runs (since a hitter who hits a home run will never have a chance to steal a base).
In 2011, the Cardinals allowed 1,499 base-runners and 46 stolen bases when Molina was behind the plate. The Phillies allowed 1,215 base-runners and 77 stolen bases when Ruiz behind the plate. In other words, Molina allowed a stolen base once every 32.59 base-runners. Ruiz allowed a stolen base once every 15.78 base-runners. The National League average was one steal for every 17.69 base-runners.
So when Ruiz was behind the plate, he was more than twice as likely to allow a stolen base than when Molina was behind the plate.
Again, Ruiz's pitchers might have been slower to the plate than Molina's. Ruiz might have had runners that were in better base-stealing situations than Molina. It's impossible to say definitively that Molina is twice as much of a deterrent as Ruiz.
But it doesn't take a seasoned scout to see the havoc that Molina's arm can wreak on an opponent. And when you combine that tool with the fact that he is four years younger than Ruiz, you'll find two players whose contract situations are incomparable.
###
Today's Phillies coverage from Clearwater. . .
Fan outrage over the Nationals' "Take Back the Park" campaign is simply playing into Washington's hands. I think that's a good thing. A new I-95 rival is just what we need to spice up the regular season.
Bob Brookover trolls the stat-heads (actually, he takes a look at the Phillies' use, or lack thereof, of advanced metrics)
Matt Gelb looks at the improvement in power on the Phillies' bench.
John Smallwood likes the new playoff format
Buy Phillies tickets 
Molina is a a grat catcher and GOOD all around player - that said, despite the lack of catching depath around the league, this is an absurd over-valuation by the cardinals. Probably to compensate for the loss of pujols, but this contract is a bad move by the cardinals, a team that has payroll limitations.— CosmoK- @CosmoK: if it is a 'bad move' by the Cards, it is the same 'bad move' logic utilized by posters here regarding the signing of Howard several years back (now at something well south of what it took Fielder, and Pujols to sign).
Each club is different. You are correct in surmising that the Cards likely 'overcompensated' Molina in order to have a bona fide star in their lineup, particularly at a key position for their strong staff, than risk him being unhappy in a year when they try to repeat, and potentially losing him later whether they do or don't (repeat).
Personally, I think it a great move (on the Cards part). But I don't see one wit in how it either influences how the Phils think about paying or not paying for Chooch. A very good player in his own right, and one of the best catchers I think the Phils have had in the modern era, but he is certainly someone I would not recommend overcompensating for (to keep him). My guess is he'll be offered a market rate 2-3 year deal at a reasonable raise from the $5+M he gets now (maybe $8-10M per for a $24-30M total contract), but not break the bank money. Molina's money is not 'market rate'.— 24sDad - Here comes the yelping, name calling, and throw Dad under the bus thrashing.
Battening down the hatches.— 24sDad - They should have spent that money on Pujols...— Elbarad
- While the money was way too much for Molina, they did the right thing by not signing Pujols. His contract with the Angels is way too much (the way it's structured is he's making more than half of it after he turns 37, which is crazy). The Cardinals got the best years 10 years of Albert Pujols' career; the Angels are paying the price for what he did as a Cardinal, not what he will do in Anaheim. — Eilex826
- They should have spent that money on Pujols...— Elbarad
- I htink a smart person bringing up Ruiz would be quick to point out that while Molina is certainly the better player and more valuable by virtue of his age, you still have to concede that he is not leaps and bounds above Ruiz. $15mil/yr is crazy. Ruiz could push for $9-$10mil. Despite being just 29, Catchers can be like RB's in that they can get old overnight.— regassert6
- The other Immeasurable factor is how many base runners decided not to attempt a steal because Molina was catching. "Players will tell you that they don't steal bases against a catcher, they steal them against the pitcher." That may be true, but they don't ignore the catcher. If a pitcher is not particularly slow to the plate but the catcher doesn't have a Molina quality arm, he may run and get the base. If Molina is behind the plate, the runner is less likely to try to steal against some pitchers he is willing to try to steal against when there is a weaker catcher behind the plate. Thus Molina's impact may be greater than the stats show.
— mcourtne - Molina is like 6 inches taller so overall strength as a throwing catcher has to be just that much better. That said, I love Chooch, I didnt realize he was almost 33 tho.— Prausch
- Molina is better than Ruiz, period. Also you have to take into consideration Molina is now at the peak of his career. He's already a 4 time AS and has 2 WS rings. You can expect him to improve a little bit or at least stay at this level for a few years. Also, when you have a cannon for an arm, as Molina does, you make the other team reluctant to use the running game. That's why they don't try to steal much against Molina. He also has a great pickoff throw to first base which also slow the running game. He's also a team leader. Ruiz is pretty good and seems perfect for this team, but if you go back and look at how teams run against us in the playoffs, in particular the Cardinals last year when Pujols, Berkman and even Molina stole bases against us (5 in total as a team), you have to scratch your head. I don't think they would have tried that with Molina behind the plate. The Phillies stole 2 bases.— EL Zorro
- Love Chooch but he's about 1/3 as valuable as Molina. The Phils won 102 games with Ruiz/Schneider behind the plate last year. Maybe they win 99 with Schnieder/Kratz behind the plate. With Molina and what he does to the running game, calling games, and defensive ability they probably win 110. Ruiz is probably worth $5-7 mil/per. They probably have him valued about right given what he brings to the game and his age. He will be very thankful for the $5 mil option for 2013 and will smile all the way to the bank in Panama City.— Mark1npt
- Mark-I agree that Molina is a notch above Ruiz, but to suggest that any catcher who doesn't hit is worth 8 wins is preposterous. According fangraphs Molina was worth 1.5 wins more than Ruiz last season. And only 4.7 total WAR. So we would not have won 110 games with him last season. TO improve 8 games we would have needed to have a catcher with a WAR of 11.2. No catcher in the last 20 or so years has posted that high a WAR.— regassert6
- Can't see them signing him due to how old he is. With the Kid down on the farm getting ready in a few years, WHy would they sign him ?????— DocPhillyfan
- WAR, as a lot advanced metrics, is flawed.
http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2011/09/06/is-war-the-new-rbi/— EL Zorro - The best thing chooch has going for him is his great bat speed. LOL He looks like he's swinging under water!!— FetchDixon
