Thursday, November 19, 2009

Over the past couple of days, we've taken a look at the various avenues the Phillies might take once the free agent signing period begins tomorrow. To recap, the Phillies have seven open roster spots to fill between now and spring training -- a starting third baseman, three relievers, a back-up catcher, and two other bench players. In a perfect world, they would also sign a player with the capability of competing for the fifth spot in the rotation with Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick.

According to our projections, they will have $119.75 million locked up to the 17 players who are under club control for next season. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has said that he does not expect to spend much more on payroll than he did last season, when the Phillies finished the year paying out just over $137 million. So, for the sake of evaluating this free agent class, we are operating under the assumption that the Phillies will have a $140 million Opening Day payroll, giving them roughly $20.25 million to spend. This projection is hardly scientific. In reality, Amaro could be planning on spending more than $140 million, but it does not behoove him to publicly say so.

Over the last two days, we've looked at the bench and the bullpen situation. Now, we'll take a look at one of the most important voids the Phillies have to fill: third base.

I. Needs


We've spent a considerable amount of cyberspace breaking down the third base position, so feel free to go back and read our previous posts. In a nut shell, though, the Phillies decided to make Pedro Feliz a free agent for several reasons. Among major league third baseman, Feliz ranked 12th in batting average (.266), 18th in on base percentage (.308) and 18th in OPS (.694). Only two major league third basemen with enough qualifying at-bats had a lower OPS than Feliz.

Furthermore, Feliz's offensive shortcomings left the Phillies with subpar production out of the No. 7 spot in the order, where they ranked 19th in OPS.

But Feliz led the team in hitting with runners in scoring position and over the last two years established himself as one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors.

In order to upgrade the position, the Phillies need to find a player whose offensive production would off-set whatever defensive drop off he would present.


II. Potential Targets: DeRosa and Polanco

There are several third basemen - and infielders who can play third base - available. Below, we've broken down each of the leading candidates by the categories that the Phillies should be looking for in their new bat, including power, on base percentage, situational hitting and defense.

We said early on that the smart money was on Mark DeRosa, and it still might be given a combination of factors that includes affordability. But don't count out Placido Polanco, the former Phillie whose departure hastened the current year-by-year third base experiments by the front office. Polanco hasn't played third since 2005, but many believe he can transition back to the position with little problem (he won a Gold Glove at second base this season).

In many ways, Polanco could fit the Phillies roster better than DeRosa. For starters, he is a year younger. Secondly, he is an experienced everyday player who has at least 600 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He isn't coming off wrist surgery, as DeRosa is. He is a better defender at second and third and played some short stop earlier in his career. He hasn't proven that he can play extensively in the outfield. But the outfield is the least of the Phillies concerns right now.

At the plate, DeRosa has a clear edge in power, but statistics say that Polanco is a better situational hitter. To quantify situational hitting, you have to utilize some pretty specific statistics. The most basic, and easiest to understand, are "Productive Outs." Essentially, a "Productive Out" occurs when a hitter moves a runner with no out or drives home a runner while making the second out of the inning.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies converted just 29 percent of their opportunities for a productive out, the third-worst percentage in the National League. With a man on third and less than two out, the Phillies scored just 48 percent of the time, which ranked in the bottom half of the NL.

Over the last three years, Polanco has converted on 32.8 percent of his opportunities for a productive out. DeRosa, on the other hand, has converted on 29.5 percent. Polanco also hits for a higher average, strikes out less, and has 13 sacrifice hits over the last two years compared to DeRosa's seven.

That said, the Phillies have always liked DeRosa, a former quarterback at Penn who can play the outfield as well as second and third.

Among the available third basemen that the Phillies are likely considering, DeRosa's defense at third base leaves the most to be desired. It is tough to quantify defense, so I'm not going to bother throwing out statistics. You'll just have to take my word for it based on conversations I've had with various scouts and personnel men. But DeRosa brings enough positives, both at the plate and in his versatility in the field (he has the tools to be an everyday second baseman or outfielder), where the Phillies would view him as an upgrade. A few weeks ago, I asked one veteran scout who has an intimate knowledge of the Phillies' roster if DeRosa would be an upgrade over Feliz, and he said that he would. The one unknown is what kind of contract DeRosa will be looking for. He'll be 35 years old on Opening Day and is coming off wrist surgery. He made $5.5 million last season, which is what the Phillies would have paid Feliz had they picked up his option. But a multi-year contract isn't out of the question. Even if DeRosa proves to be a liability at third base, his versatility would prevent him from turning into dead money. In a worst case scenario, the Phillies could be back in the market for a third baseman next offseason, while having DeRosa as an option in right field, where Jayson Werth will be a free agent, or as a super-utility man.

A lot has been made about DeRosa's roots, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that. For a player like DeRosa, who has never had a "huge" multi-year deal and who is in the twilight of his career, a situation like this offseason is all about maximizing his return. These guys have a very small window in which to make their money, and DeRosa's window is closing. But given the glut of third base candidates on the market, the Phillies have a good chance at signing DeRosa to a cost-effective deal.

Why would they want to do so?

1) DeRosa is extremely effective against left-handed pitching. Even last season, when he struggled with his wrist injury after being traded from the Indians to the Cardinals, he finished hitting .278 with a .341 on base percentage and .928 OPS against lefties. He averaged a home run every 12.6 at-bats against lefties. Feliz, meanwhile, hit just .208 against lefties, although that stat is an anomaly when you look at his career.

In 2008, DeRosa hit .310 with a .398 on base percentage and .894 OPS against lefties, while hitting .275 with a .367 on base percentage and .842 OPS against righties.

2) On paper over the last three years, DeRosa has brought a better combination of power and situational hitting than Polanco.

III. Other names to watch

Two of the more intriguing names out there are Adrian Beltre and Miguel Tejada. Beltre is coming off an injury-plagued season, but he is a good defender who put up impressive power numbers in a division rife with pitcher-friendly ballparks. Tejada, meanwhile, has never played third base, but many project him to eventually move to the position.

Tejada would seem to fit perfectly in the Phillies line-up, given his ability to both move runners and hit the ball out of the ballpark. But there are two big unknowns: Would he move to third base, and what is his price tag?

IV. What about Figgins?

Provided Chone Figgins lands the contract many expect him to, don't count on the Phillies as serious players. While there is no doubt he would upgrade the line-up and give the roster a tremendous, versatile weapon, there is a pretty good chance the Phillies do not feel he is worth the money given the other options that are out there.


V. Comparing the candidates

Below, I've broken down the key statistics posted by six free agent third basemen -- Polanco, DeRosa, Beltre, Figgins, Tejada and Troy Glaus. I've also included Feliz's numbers as a point of reference. I did not include Glaus' statistics fromt his past season, when he was limited to under 100 PA by injuries.

Plate Appearances

Feliz:   625 (2009), 463 (2008), 590 (2007), 644 (2006)
Polanco: 675 (2009), 629 (2008), 641 (2007), 495 (2006)
DeRosa:  576 (2009), 593 (2008), 574 (2007), 572 (2006)
Beltre: 477 (2009), 612 (2008), 639 (2007), 681 (2006)
Figgins: 729 (2009), 520 (2008), 503 (2007), 683 (2006)
Tejada: 673 (2009), 666 (2008), 568 (2007), 709 (2006)
Glaus:  DNP (2009), 637 (2008), 456 (2007), 634 (2006)

On Base Percentage

Feliz:   .308 (2009), .302 (2008), .290 (2007), .281 (2006)
Polanco: .331 (2009), .350 (2008), .388 (2007), .329 (2006)
DeRosa:  .319 (2009), .376 (2008), .371 (2007), .357 (2006)
Beltre:  .304 (2009), .327 (2008), .319 (2007), .328 (2006)
Figgins: .395 (2009), .367 (2008), .393 (2007), .336 (2006)
Tejada: .340 (2009), .314 (2008), .357 (2007), .379 (2006
Glaus:  DNP (2009), .372 (2008), .366 (2007), .355 (2006)

Home Runs

Feliz:   12 (2009), 14 (2008), 20 (2007), 22 (2006)
Polanco: 10 (2009), 8 (2008), 9 (2007), 4 (2006)
DeRosa:  23 (2009), 21 (2008), 10 (2007), 13 (2006)
Beltre:  8 (2009), 25 (2008), 26 (2007), 25 (2006)
Figgins: 5 (2009), 1 (2008), 3 (2007), 9 (2006)
Tejada: 14 (2009), 13 (2008), 18 (2007), 24 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 27 (2008), 20 (2007), 38 (2006)

Slugging Percentage


Feliz:   .386 (2009), .402 (2008), .418 (2007), .428 (2006)
Polanco: .396 (2009), .417 (2008), .458 (2007), .364 (2006)
DeRosa: .433 (2009), .481 (2008), .420 (2007), .456 (2006)
Beltre: .379 (2009), .457 (2008), .482 (2007), .465 (2006)
Figgins: .395 (2009), .367 (2008), .393 (2007), .336 (2006)
Tejada: .455 (2009), .415 (2008), .442 (2007), .498 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2008), .483 (2008), .473 (2007), .513 (2006)

OPS

Feliz: .694 (2009), .705 (2008), .708 (2007), .709 (2006)
Polanco: .727 (2009), .768 (2008), .846 (2007), .693 (2006)
DeRosa:  .752 (2009), .857 (2008), .792 (2007), .812 (2006)
Beltre: .683 (2009), .784 (2008), .802 (2007), .792 (2006)
Figgins: .789 (2009), .685 (2008), .825 (2007), .712 (2006)
Tejada: .795 (2009), .729 (2006), .799 (2007), .878 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), .856 (2008), .839 (2007), .868 (2006)

AB/SO

Feliz:  8.5 (2009), 7.9 (2008), 8.0 (2007), 5.4 (2006)
Polanco: 13.4 (2009), 13.5 (2008), 19.6 (2007), 17.1 (2006)
DeRosa:   4.3 (2009),  4.8 (2008), 5.4 (2007), 5.1 (2006)
Beltre: 6.1 (2009), 6.2 (2008), 5.7 (2007), 5.3 (2006)
Figgins: 5.4 (2009), 5.7 (2008), 5.5 (2007), 6.0 (2006)
Tejada: 13.2 (2009), 8.8 (2008), 9.3 (2007), 8.2 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 5.2 (2008), 3.8 (2007), 4.0 (2006)

GIDP Percentage


Feliz: 10 (2009), 15 (2008), 14 (2007), 15 (2006)
Polanco: 13 (2009), 11 (2008), 8 (2007), 17 (2006)
DeRosa:  9 (2009), 7 (2008), 14 (2007), 11 (2006)
Beltre: 18 (2009), 10 (2008), 12 (2007), 10 (2006)
Figgins: 7 (2009), 11 (2008), 7 (2007), 6 (2006)
Tejada: 23 (2009), 21 (2008), 20 (2007), 16 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 11 (2008), 8 (2007), 20 (2006)

Productive Out Percentage

Feliz: 31 (17/54, 2009), 36 (17/47, 2008), 15 (8/53, 2007), 28 (21/74, 2006)
Polanco: 32 (20/62, 2009), 31 (22/70, 2008), 35 (23/66, 2007), 42 (24/57, 2006)
DeRosa: 31 (18/58, 2009), 24 (14/58, 2008), 34 (18/58, 2007), 24 (16/66, 2006)
Beltre: 15 (6/41, 2009), 32 (20/63, 2008), 22 (16/73, 2007), 27 (19/71, 2006)
Figgins: 35 (17/48, 2009), 35 (11/31, 2008), 38 (20/52, 2007), 38 (20/52, 2006)
Tejada: 39 (27/70, 2009), 38 (26/69, 2008), 35 (21/60, 2007), 35 (24/69, 2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 26 (14/53, 2008), 28 (11/40, 2007), 31 (18/59, 2006)

Man on Third, Less Than Two Out (Percentage runner scored)

Feliz: 67 (24/36, 2009), 57 (13/23, 2008), 46 (12/26, 2007), 52 (32/61, 2006)
Polanco: 58 (21/36, 2009), 56 (19/34, 2008), 68 (19/28, 2007), 65 (20/31, 2006)
DeRosa: 50 (19/38, 2009), 47 (25/53, 2008), 63 (22/35, 2007), 50 (17/34, 2006)
Beltre: 52 (17/33, 2009), 49 (19/39, 2008), 58 (18/31, 2007), 50 (23/46, 2006)
Figgins: 41 (13/32, 2009), 34 (10/29, 2008), 74 (26/35, 2007), 58 (19/33, 2006)
Tejada: 69 (27/39, 2009), 50 (15/30, 2008), 52 (23/44, 2007), 58 (29/50, 2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 48 (14/29, 2008), 51 (18/35, 2007), 49 (20/41, 2006)

Man on Second, No out (Percentage runner moved to third)

Feliz: 48 (16/33, 2009), 35 (9/26, 2008), 21 (5/24, 2007), 34 (18/53, 2006)
Polanco: 54 (13/24, 2009), 34 (12/35, 2008), 57 (26/46, 2007), 68 (21/31, 2006)
DeRosa: 38 (11/29, 2009), 38 (17/45, 2008), 38 (15/39, 2007), 51 (18/35, 2006)
Beltre: 55 (12/22, 2009), 43 (17/40, 2008), 54 (20/37, 2007), 28 (11/40, 2006)
Figgins: 46 (19/41, 2009), 32 (8/25, 2008), 48 (14/29, 2007), 64 (25/39, 2006)
Tejada: 46 (23/50, 2009), 40 (21/53, 2008), 45 (18/40, 2007), 56 (18/32, 2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 47 (16/34, 2008), 36 (10/28, 2007), 43 (16/37, 2006)

Posted by David Murphy @ 5:02 PM  Permalink | 56 comments
Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Want to know the most amazing stat of this postseason? It wasn't Cole Hamels' or Cliff Lee's ERA, or Carlos Ruiz's batting average, or Ryan Howard's RBIs in the first two rounds or strikeouts in the World Series.

It was this: The six non-regular position players on the Phillies postseason roster combined for 31 at-bats during the playoffs.

They finished with just one hit -- an RBI single by Matt Stairs against A.J. Burnett in the World Series.

1-for-31.

Let that sink in.

They were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position, 1-for-14 with men on base.

In the World Series, when just one extra base hit might have turned the tide of the series, they combined to go 1-for-16.

While the majority of the focus throughout the regular season and postseason involved Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge's struggles, you could argue that the one area of the team that suffered the most dramatic drop-off from 2008 was the performance of the bench.

In the 2008 postseason, the Phillies' six bench players combined to go 11-for-32 with four extra base hits and three RBI. In the World Series, they went 3-for-9 with two extra base hits.

The postseason is the time when the flaws of the regular season come home to roost. It was true in the case of Hamels. And it was true in the case of the bench.

 One year after leading the league with 64 pinch hits and finishing second with a .253 average, Phillies pinch-hitters hit just .186, the second-worst average in the National League and 45 points below the league average. Though they tied for the league lead with nine pinch-hit home runs, they struggled mightily to make contact, striking out an NL-high 71 times.

Which is why today we are going to look at one of the more under-reported yet important aspects of this Phillies offseason.

I. Needs

Already, Ruben Amaro Jr. has bid adieu to Eric Bruntlett. He does not plan on Matt Stairs or Miguel Cairo or Paul Bako being part of his 2010 Opening Day roster.

Of the six bench players who saw action in the playoffs, only Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco will return.

In those two players, the Phillies feel like they have the makings of a decent bench. Dobbs, who in 2007 and 2008 was one of the top pinch-hitters in the majors, hit just .167 in those situations in 2009. But he was hampered by a calf injury and did not get nearly as much playing time as he did in 2008, thanks in part to Pedro Feliz's early-season offensive performance at third base. The Phillies feel like Dobbs can return to form in 2010. They are looking at several third basemen who can play second base as well -- Mark DeRosa, Placido Polanco and Chone Figgins among them -- which could enable Charlie Manuel to start Dobbs at third base while resting Chase Utley. Dobbs hit .309 with a .340 on base percentage in 28 starts in 2009. The thinking goes that more regular action will help him stay sharp for his pinch-hitting appearances.

And while Francisco went 0-for-11 in the postseason, he hit .278 with five home runs in 37 games after the Phillies acquired him from Cleveland along with Cliff Lee, and was 3-for-13 with two doubles as a pinch-hitter.

Still, the Phillies know they need to use free agency to upgrade the bench. Provided they carry five bench players on Opening Day, they have three spots to fill: A back-up catcher, a back-up infielder who can play short stop, and a third pinch-hitter/occasional fill-in type.

II. Five Potential Targets

1. Fernando Tatis, 35, UTIL, NYM

On paper, there might not be a better fit for the Phillies bench than this veteran utility man. In two seasons with the Mets, he hit .289 with a .352 on base percentage, 19 home runs, 95 RBI and 113 strikeouts in 613 at-bats. This season, he went 14-for-53 with two home runs and 10 RBI as a pinch-hitter. At this point in his career, he plays mostly in the outfield, making him an excellent candidate to spell Raul Ibanez for a game or two per week. But he has spent most of his career as a third basemen, and started 20 games there for the Mets this season, posting a .971 fielding percentage. He also started five games at second base and 32 games at first base. If the Phillies sign a third baseman who can also play second, it wouldn't be hard for them to get Tatis 400+ at-bats. He could provide Ryan Howard an occasional breather against lefties at first base, and could make the occasional appearance at third base against lefties, allowing a guy like DeRosa or Polanco or Figgins to play second on that particular day.

Tatis earned $1.7 million last season, and his versatility and offensive performance over the last two years should put him in high demand. But the Phillies can offer him a good chance to play regularly and a good chance to reach the World Series.

2. Jerry Hairston Jr., 34, UTIL, NYY

On paper, another perfect fit for the Phillies. He started 27 games at short stop for the Reds and the Yankees this season, making two errors. He has a .981 fielding percentage in 542 career games at second base. He can play the out field. He is right-handed. He hit .251 with a .301 on base percentage and 10 home runs in 383 at-bats in 2009. If he ever had to fill in long-term for Rollins, he might not bring the type of defense to the table that the Phillies desire. And he might get a better chance at playing time elsewhere. And he already has a World Series ring. But keep an eye on him.

3. Omar Vizquel, 43, SS, TEX

Vizquel's agent has been quoted as saying the veteran defensive whiz wants to play somewhere where he can win. And Charlie Manuel and Vizquel have a long relationship going back to their days with the Indians. The bench slot that Vizquel would inhabit is a defense-first position, and Vizquel is one of the best defensive short stops in history. He also started nine games at third base and 14 games at second base, all without an error.

But Vizquel can still handle the bat. He hit .266 with a .316 on base percentage in 177 at-bats last year for the Rangers.

4. Henry Blanco, C, 38, SDP

The Phillies are looking defense first for their back-up catcher, and Blanco is regarded as a solid defensive backstop. He's played for seven different teams in his 12 years in the majors, almost all of them as a back-up. While his overall offensive numbers might not be impressive -- He hit .235/.320 for the Padres last year with six home runs in 204 at-bats -- Blanco kills left-handed pitching. Last year, he hit .322 with a .429 on base percentage and four home runs in 59 at-bats against lefties. In 2008, he hit .316 with a .350 on base percentage and one home run in 57 at-bats against them.

5. Gregg Zaun, C, 39, TBR


Another strong defensive catcher who could fit perfectly with the Phillies. In addition to his veteran presence behind the plate, he is a switch-hitter who has posted an OBP of at least .340 in each of his last six seasons in the majors. He has some power, and has plenty of pinch-hitting experience, although the Phillies rarely use their back-up catcher in such situations. But Zaun might head somewhere where he can get more playing time: He started 74 games last season for the Rays and Orioles. Carlos Ruiz started 100 for the Phillies.

III. Five to watch


1. Ryan Freel, UTIL, 34, KCR: In the Tatis/Hairston Jr. mold, Freel has played mostly outfield lately but has also seen significant action at second and third. A right-handed hitter, he hit .272/.357 with 22 home runs and 114 RBI in his first six years in Cincinatti, but endured a frustrating 2009 in which he hit just .193 while bouncing between Baltimore, Chicago and Kansas City.

2. Ronnie Belliard, 35, INF, LAD: Not a short stop option, but plays second base and third base and in his last three seasons has hit.286/.342, 32 HR, 143 RBI, 186 SO in 1071 AB. He fluorished after joining the Dodgers last season.

3. John McDonald, 35, UTIL, TOR: A right-handed hitter, would be an option to back up Rollins. Hit .258/.271 for the Blue Jays last year.

4. Juan Uribe, 30, UTIL, SFG: At just 30 years old and coming off a season in which he hit .289 with a .329 on base percentage and 16 home runs while playing home games in a pitcher's park, Uribe would seem to be headed somewhere for bigger dollars and more playing time. But if nobody is interesting in giving him an everyday job, he could fit with the Phillies. He has extensive experience at short stop, second base and third base and is 10-for-31 in his career as a pinch-hitter.

5. Bobby Crosby, 30, UTIL, OAK
: An option to back-up Rollins, but would his weak bat provide much of an upgrade over Bruntlett?

Posted by David Murphy @ 1:58 PM  Permalink | 69 comments
Tuesday, November 17, 2009

The Phillies added two pitchers and an outfielder to their 40-man roster today.

Lefthander Yohan Flande, righthander Jesus Sanchez and outfielder Quintin Berry had their contracts selected to the 40-man roster, the team announced.

Berry hit .266 with five home runs, 28 RBI and 48 stolen bases in 135 games and played centerfield for Double A Reading. Berry, who turns 25 on Saturday, was a fifth-round selection in the 2006 draft, Berry has 173 stolen bases in four minor league seasons.

Flande, 23, split the season between Class A Clearwater and Reading. He made 25 starts and was 10-5 with a 3.40 earned run average and allowed six home runs in 145.2 innings. Flande was signed by the Phillies as an amateur free agent in 2004.

Sanchez, 22, was converted from catcher to pitcher this season and went 10-6 with a 3.44 ERA in 26 starts for Class A Lakewood. He had a 2.41 ERA over his final 15 starts. He was acquired from the Yankees in 2006 as part of the Bobby Abreu trade.

The Phillies now have 30 players on their 40-man roster.

To read our look at the relievers available in free agency, click here.
 

Posted by Daily News staff @ 2:28 PM  Permalink | 6 comments
Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Free agency begins in earnest on Friday, when teams are allowed to negotiate with and sign players from other clubs. Since the end of the World Series, the Phillies have been allowed to talk in general terms with agents. But except for their own free agents, they have not been allowed to talk dollars.

Over the next three days, we'll try to break down the major voids the Phillies will be looking to fill through free agency: Third base, the bull-pen, back-up catcher, and the bench. Any analysis is difficult given three big unknowns: 1) The organization's scouting reports on prospective free agents, 2) The conversations Ruben Amaro Jr. and Scott Proefrock have had with agents about their clients' interest in playing for the Phillies and their contract expectations, and 3) The amount of money the Phillies have to spend. Amaro has said he does not expect to spend much more than he did last season, when the Phillies opened the year with $132 million in obligations and, after additions and bonuses, spent a shade over $137 million. It  is very possible that number could escalate if Amaro and Co. identify a free agent whom they covet and are able to present a cogent case to ownership about the value of signing such player. But for the sake of this analysis, we used $140 million as our projected budget number. We also project that the Phillies will have $119.75 million guaranteed to 18 players once arbitration awards and yearly raises are doled out, leaving them with roughly $20.25 million to spend before they hit our projected cap.

Today, we'll address the pitching staff.

I. Needs

Currently, the Phillies have Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero locked up at a total of roughly $20 million. If all were healthy and coming off successful seasons, Amaro would not have to worry much about adding another back-of-the-bullpen arm. And another lefthander would not be a huge priority. But Lidge's struggle were well-documented, and while he should be recovered from arthroscopic surgery on his elbow early in spring training, Romero's recovery from elbow surgery could stretch into the first month or two of the season. Which leaves the Phillies in bad need of some bullpen help -- and not just depth.

Their biggest needs, in order, appear to be a back-of-the-bullpen arm with the stuff to pitch the eighth and ninth inning, a multiple innings arm, and a dependable situational lefty, . The Phillies are hoping to re-sign Chan Ho Park, which would fill the multi-innings void, and also give them another pitcher with the stuff to pitch in the late innings of tight games. But it remains to be seen if the two sides can come to an agreement. In a perfect world, Scott Eyre would return for one more healthy season. But he has contemplated retirement and is coming off arthroscopic elbow surgery.

Righthander Chad Durbin, who has been an important piece of the 'Pen for the last two years, is under club control for next season and brings a versatility that is hard to find in relievers. But he made $1.65 million last season and is arbitration-eligible with five-plus years of experience, meaning he is likely in line for a raise to over $2 million. With the Phillies looking for another back of the bullpen arm (BOBA) and perhaps a veteran lefty to fill in for Romero while he is sidelined (not to mention provide insurance in case his elbow problem lingers), they might decide that such a salary is not cost effective. You have to figure that at least one of the seven open relief slots will be filled by a low-cost long man, which is why I'm projecting Clay Condrey will be back with the team next year.

Here is a rough depth chart for the bullpen heading into free agency:

Closer - Brad Lidge, $11.5 million
BOBA 1 - Ryan Madson, $4.5 million
BOBA 2 - EMPTY
LEFTY - J.C. Romero, $4.0 million
VETLHP - EMPTY
MULTI  - EMPTY
LONG   - Clay Condrey, $0.60 million

II. Demand

Every one needs pitching, which makes the relief market so hard to forecast. But at first glance, few teams are in need of a closer.

In an ideal world, the Phillies would avoid having to overpay for a back-of-the-bullpen arm with closing experience who could step into the ninth inning if Lidge struggles or be content pitching the eighth if Lidge returns to the form he displayed in 2008. Any of the above seven players could be turned off by the presence of another closer. But given the relative lack of demand for their services, they might not have a choice.

According to my calculations, 21 of the 29 other teams in the majors have a closer for the 2010 season. The eight remaining teams: Florida, Washington, Atlanta, Houston, Detroit, Toronto, Tampa Bay and Baltimore, with Seattle as another possibility.

Of those eight or nine teams, only Houston, Detroit and Baltimore seem likely to dedicate a sizeable chunk of their offseason spending toward a closer. Media reports out of Washington suggest the Nationals could have interest in Gonzalez, so throw them in the running. It is hard to imagine Tampa Bay or Toronto making a play for an established closer.

III. Potential Targets

The following players have the possibility of fitting from both a financial and performance standpoint:

1. RHP Brandon Lyon, 31, DET

He earned $4.25 million last season with the Tigers, and at a similar rate, even over two or three years, might be a good gamble. He'll be 31 on Opening Day, posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.106 WHIP for the Tigers in 2009 and a 2.68 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 2007. His 2008 numbers are inflated -- 4.70 ERA and 1.483 WHIP -- but he also allowed a grotesque .342 batting average on balls in play, which many staticians argue is evidence of bad luck.

In 2009, righties and lefties both hit just .205 off of Lyon. Like Rodney, he isn't an obvious choice for teams in need of a closer. But he can pitch multiple innings and has closing experience. Which, at the right price, would seem to be right up the Phillies' alley.

2. RHP Fernando Rodney, 34, DET

FoxSports.com has reported that the Phillies have shown "preliminary interest" in Rodney. Now, keep in mind they have shown preliminary interst in a lot of people, but I give that some credence. There are enough red flags about Rodney that could very well prevent a team from locking him to a closer-type deal. He converted 37 of 38 save opportunities from the Tigers, but was hardly unhittable, posting a 4.40 ERA and 1.467 WHIP. His 7.3 K/9 ratio was a career low, and his 4.9 BB/9 ratio was higher than you'd like it to be. He'll be 33 years old, and is coming off a career-high 75.2 innings after throwing just 40.1 in 2008.

When you look deeper into Rodney's numbers, there is some indication that his true calling in baseball is not as a closer but as a solid seventh or eighth inning option with less of a workload. In his first 50 innings last season, he posted a 3.78 ERA with 47 strikeouts and 65 hits and walks allowed. In his last 25.2 innings, he posted a 5.61 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 46 walks and hits allowed. In his last 14 appearances of 2008, he had a 6.23 ERA. In his last 10 of 2007, he had a 6.10 ERA.

Rodney also has struggled on back-to-back days (source: Baseball-Reference.com):

Career:

  • On back-to-back days: 5.23 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 8.3 K/9
  • On 1 day rest: 4.40 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
  • On 2 days rest: 3.43 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 9.3 K/9

2009:

  • On back-to-back: 5.32 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
  • On 1 day: 5.85 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
  • On 2 days: 2.25 ERA, .950 WHIP, 8.6 K/9

Rodney would likely like to close. And he'd definitely like to earn closer money (who wouldn't?). But there is a chance he'll be forced to sign at a reasonable price. And at a reasonable price, he might be a good fit to add to the Madson-Romero mix in the seventh and eighth.

IV. If the Price Is Right (But it Probably Won't Be)

The following are players who would seem to fit from a performance standpoint, but whose potential reward could outweight the financial risk the Phillies would have to take in signing them.

1. LHP Mike Gonzalez, 32, ATL

On paper, Gonzalez would seem to be a perfect fit. He was lights out in the eighth inning for the Braves last season, and held lefties to a .194 average (compared with .218 against righties), so he would fill two voids. And he has some experience closing. But if he is looking for a multi-year deal and a good chance at closing, there is probably a team out there who will give it to him. And there are enough caveats with him that I don't anticipate the Phillies being willing to invest heavily in him. He is coming off a career-high 74.1 innings pitched after having thrown just 50.2 in the previous two years combined. After throwing a career-high 54 innings in 2006 he was injured the following season. Gonzalez will be just 32 on Opening Day, so it is easy to imagine a team willingly handing him multiple years and a job as a closer. If not, he would appear to fit perfectly in the Phillies' bullpen.

2. RHP Rafael Soriano, 31, ATL

Like Gonzalez, I expect the market to price Soriano out of the Phillies' range. Like his teammate in Atlanta, Soriano has top-shelf talent. He posted a 2.97 ERA and struck out an average of 12.1 per nine innings and has a track record of success in the majors (he posted a 2.66 ERA for the Mariners in 06-07). But he also might be a Peter Principle guy, one whose best role is as a dominant seventh or eighth inning guy, but who is a considerable risk to pay closer money over multiple years. He had nerve transposition surgery on his elbow in 2008, limiting him to 14 innings, then appeared in nearly half the Braves games last season, throwing 75.2 innings. He also allowed lefties to hit .258 with a .324 on base percentage last season -- not horrible numbers, but combined with his 3.93 ERA in save situations enough to cause some trepidation when dedicating an inning to him. Soriano will be just 31 on Opening Day, and his talent could easily convince a team to lock him up as a closer (he saved 27 games for the Braves last season). If the price is right, he would look good with Madson and Romero in the seventh and eighth innings. But at this point I don't expect the price to be right.

V. Thanks, We'll Pass

1. RHP Kevin Gregg, 31, CHC

The 31-year-old was a free agent bust in Chicago, where he signed a $4.2 million deal to close but wound up losing his job after posting a 4.72 ERA and blowing seven saves. He allowed 18 runs in 20.1 innings pitched after August 1, and with at least 70 appearances in the last three seasons has a decent amount of mileage on his arm.

2. J.J. Putz, 33, NYM

Another free agent bust, his workload has decreased in each of the last three seasons, from 78.1 innings and a 2.30 ERA for the Mariners in 2006 to 29.1 innings and a 5.22 ERA for the Mets last season. I just don't think the Phillies are in a position to take a flier on such a guy.

VI. Too Rich For Their Blood


1. RHP Jose Valverde, Astros


Valverde already filled in for Lidge once. Don't expect it to happen again.

2. LHP Billy Wagner, Red Sox


It would be fun, though, wouldn't it?

3. LHP John Grabow, 31, CHC

A Type A Free Agent, he's likely headed back to the Cubs.

VII. Logical Fall-Backs

1. RHP Rafael Betancourt, 35, COL: Posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 61 appearances, 56 innings for Cleveland and Colorado. Held righties to a .169 average (lefties hit .265). Colorado is attempting to sign him to a multi-year extension, but a report in the Denver Post said Betancourt turned down a two-year, $8 million extension.

2. RHP LaTroy Hawkins, 37, HOU:
Earned $3.5 million for Houston while posting a 2.13 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 63.1 innings, the veteran former closer also saved 11 games.

3. RHP Dannys Baez, 32, BAL:
Has one of the best ground ball rates of this year's free agent relievers, a plus given the Phillies' defense and the ballpark in which they play. He posted a 4.02 ERA in 71.2 innings with a 1.130 WHIP in 2009. He is more of a multiple-innings candidate.

4. RHP Jose Contreras, 38, COL: An option should Park sign elsewhere, the former White Sox starter would give the Phillies starting depth in addition to a multiple-innings arm out of the bullpen.

5. RHP Kiko Calero, 35, FLA:
A reclamation project, he posted a 1.95 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 67 APP, 60 innings for the Marlins, holding righties to a .176 average and lefties to .187. He posted a 3.46 ERA in save situations. Calero posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.130 WHIP from 2003-06 for Oakland and St. Louis, but underwent rotator cuff surgery in 2008.

6. RHP Takashi Saito, 40, BOS: Pitched well for the Red Sox (2.43 ERA, 1.347 WHIP in 55.2 innings), but Boston declined his $6 million option.

7. RHP Brendan Donnelly, 38, FLA: The former Angels standout was limited to just 34.1 innings in 2007 and 2008 thanks to Tommy John surgery, but he posted good numbers in 30 appearances for the Marlins (1.78 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, .220 vs RHB).

8. LHP Brian Shouse, 41, TBR: Could be a cheap option if Eyre does not return (Tampa Bay recently declined his $1.5 million option). Lefties hit .224 against him in 2009, .180 in 2008, and .214 in 2007, although righties killed him.

9. LHP Darren Oliver, 39, LAA:
Although Oliver gave up some big hits in the postseason, the fact that he is left-handed and has the ability to pitch multiple innings makes him valuable, although maybe not to the tune of $3.665 million, which he earned while posting a 2.71 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 63 appearances for the Angels. He's also a Type A Free Agent.

10. RHP Octavio Dotel, 36, White Sox:
Experienced veteran with 83 career saves, he is a Type A Free Agent but might not be offered arbitration on the heels of a two year, $11 million contract. Posted 3.32 ERA and 1.444 WHIP for White Sox in 62 appearances, 62.1 innings pitched.

VIII. Wild Cards

1. RHP Justin Duchscherer, 31, OAK: In 2008, the Phillies signed Chad Durbin to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation and potentially fill a bullpen role. In 2009, they did the same with Chan Ho Park. Might Duchscherer be this year's candidate? He missed all of 2009, but started 22 games in 2008, posting impressive numbers (2.54 ERA, 0.995 WHIP), albeit while pitching in a pitcher's park. He has appeared as a reliever in 192 games in his career with a 1.164 WHIP while holding lefties to a .247 average and righties to a .220 average. Duchscherer's agent has been quoted as saying Duchscherer should be able to land a starting job, and there is likely a team out there who will provide a better opportunity at one than the Phillies can. Still, he'd be an intriguing addition.

2. RHP Kelvim Escobar, 34, LAA: Started just one game for the Angels last year after missing all of 2008 with shoulder surgery. Hasn't pitched in relief since 2005 (1.89 ERA, .169 BAA, .789 WHIP in 9 APP) and might not have the physical capability of doing so at this point. But with the Phillies looking for rotation depth in addition to bullpen arms, he's worth mentioning.

3. RHP Jeff Weaver, 33, LAD:
Went 6-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 28 games, seven starts for the Dodgers. Another multi-innings/rotation depth mention.

IX. Potential minor-league contract inventory


Left-handed relievers

1. LHP Eddie Guardado, 39, TEX: Veteran posted 4.46 ERA, 1.409 WHIP in 48 APP, 38.1 IP for Texas. . .2008 - 4.15 ERA, 1.225 WHIP in 64 APP, 56.1 IP for Texas/Minnesota. . .vs. LHB: .333/.400, vs. RHB: .228/.311. . .2008 vs. LHB - .210/.270, vs. RHB: .268/.331. . .Plans on returning after contemplating retiring. . .was bothered by inflammation in knee, visited Dr. Yocum who prescribed rehab program.

2. Ron Mahay, 39, MIN: 2009 - 4.29 ERA, 1.669 WHIP for KC/MIN. . .vs. LHB: .262/.306, vs. RHB: .327/.425. . .2008 - 3.48 ERA, 1.392 WHIP for KC. . .2007 - 2.25 ERA, 1.250 WHIP for ATL. . .2008 vs. LHB: .255/.327. . .2007 vs. LHB: .189/.250.

3. LHP Will Ohman, 32, LAD: 5.83 ERA, 1.622 WHIP in 21 G for LAD. . .LAD declined 2.2 mil option. . .Hurt elbow, didn't pitch after May 27. . .Held lefties under .201 in in 07 and 08 with Braves.

4. LHP Ron Villone: Well travelled vet allowed .293/.386/.414 vs lefties in 2009 after holding LHB to .176/.311 in 2008. He'll turn 40 in January.

5. LHP Tyler Johnson, 28, STL: Last pitched for STL in 2007 - 4.03 ERA, 1.237 WHIP in 55 G, 33 IP. . .Career .228/.326 vs LHB. . .Injured in 2008, non tendered afterward, signed ML contract with Mariners in Feb. of 09, released June 6.

6. LHP Ken Takahashi, 41, NYM: Lefty specialist who did not retire lefties -- LHB hit .302/.387 against him. Righties hit .156/.278.

Right-handed relievers

1. Bobby Howry, 36, SFG:  3.39 ERA, 1.147 WHIP in 63 G, 63.2 IP for SFG. . .vs RHB: .207/.235, vs. LHB: .224/.348. . .In Save Sit -.354 BAA, 7.15 ERA in 14 G. . .OPP hit .309/.388 in high leverage situaitons. . .

2. Brad Thompson, 28, STL: 4.84 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, 3.8 SO/9, 32 games, eight starts, 80 IP for STL last season.

3. Joaquin Benoit, 32, TEX: Missed 2009 with shoulder surgery. 2008: 5.00 ERA in 44 APP, .184 vs LHB; 2007 vs. LHB: .172/.221, vs. RHB: .268/.349. . .2006 vs. LHB: .191/.306, vs. RHB: .245/.319. . .started 45 games from 2002-04 for Texas. . .3.72 ERA in 2005 for TEX in 32 APP, 9 GS. . .2.85 ERA in 70 APP in 2007, 82 IP.

4. Russ Springer, 41, TBR: 4.11 ERA in 74 APP, 57 IP for OAK, TBR

5. Guillermo Mota, 36, LAD:
Left off the postseason roster by the Dodgers, posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.170 WHIP during the regular season, but had a 4.80 ERA in 16 games after August 1.

6. Justin Miller, 32, SFG:
Elbow surgery ended a 2009 season in which he posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 44 APP. . .6.32 ERA in 15 G after ASB.

7. Justin Speier, 36, LAA:  2.79 ERA, 1.065 WHIP in 174 games for Toronto and LA in 05-07. . .Signed a four year, 18 mil contract that runs through 2010. In '09 held righties to .239/.290, lefties .328/.430. . .In 08 RHB .240/.303, LHB, .288, .382, .619, 10 HR

Posted by David Murphy @ 10:13 AM  Permalink | 54 comments
Monday, November 16, 2009

Phillies lefthander J.A. Happ finished second. in the voting for National League Rookie of the Year by the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Florida Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan won the award, outpointing Happ, despite Happ appearing on all 32 ballots.

Coghan got 17 first-place votes, six for second and two for third for 105 points. He was not on two ballots. Happ had 10 first-place votes, 11 seconds and 11 thirds for a total of 94 points.

Coghlan led NL rookies in batting average (.321), runs (84), hits (162), doubles (31), total bases (232), multihit games (51) and on-base percentage (.390) in becoming the third Marlins player honored, joining Dontrelle Willis (2003) and Hanley Ramirez (2006).

Happ was 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and topped NL rookie pitchers in innings (166), strikeouts (119), complete games (3) and shutouts (2).

Atlanta Braves pitcher Tommy Hanson (11-4, 2.89 ERA) received two first-place votes and ranked third overall with 37 points. Also receiving two first-place votes was Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen (.282, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 22 SB), who was fourth with 25 points. The other first-place vote went to Milwaukee Brewers infielder Casey McGehee (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI), who was fifth with 18 points.

 

Poll: Should Happ have won the award? (1858 votes)
Posted by Daily News staff @ 2:04 PM  Permalink | 23 comments
Monday, November 16, 2009

One of the Phillies' goals this offseason is to find a utlity infielder capable of providing Charlie Manuel with an adequate defensive and offensive option to spell middle infielders Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. It was pretty evident that the club did not view Eric Bruntlett as an option, but that was not made official until today, when it removed the veteran from the 40-man roster, thereby granting him free agency (which he accepted).

Bruntlett, acquired in the trade with the Astros that brought Brad Lidge to Philadelphia and sent Michael Bourn to Houston, saw his playing time drop dramatically in 2009.

He hit just .217 with a .297 on base percentage in 238 plate appearances in 2008, then hit .171 with a .238 on base percentage in 118 plate appearances this past season. During Bruntlett's brief time with the Phillies, he had two defining moments: First, he scored the winning run in Game 5 of the World Series on Pedro Feliz's single up the middle. Second, he recorded an unassisted triple play against the Mets this summer.

Other Phillies who were removed from the 40-man roster and granted free agency include RHP John Ennis, RHP Tyler Walker, C Paul Hoover, and INF Andy Tracy.

Posted by David Murphy @ 12:04 PM  Permalink | 80 comments
Sunday, November 15, 2009


J.A. Happ already has been named the National League’s top rookie by The Sporting News. The Phillies lefthander has also won that honor from his peers with the MLB Players Choice Award.

He’ll find out Monday if he will add the most prestigious of these awards to his resumé when the Baseball Writers Association of America announces the results of its voting for National League Rookie of the Year.

Happ led all qualifying pitchers in innings pitched (166), complete games (three) and strikeouts (119) while tying Cubs righthander Randy Wells in wins (12) despite starting the season in the bullpen. His 2.93 earned run average was second only to Braves righthander Tommy Hanson.

Also expected to receive consideration in an unusually crowded field are: Marlins leftfielder Chris Coghlan, Brewers infielder Casey McGehee, Pirates centerfielder Andrew McCutchen and outfielder-first baseman Garrett Jones, Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus and Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra.
 

Posted by Paul Hagen @ 7:25 PM  Permalink | 16 comments
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Closer Brad Lidge had surgery Wednesday to repair his flexor pronator tendon, but the Phillies said in a statement that they are hopeful the righthander will be ready "close to Opening Day."

Lidge, who blew 11 saves and posted a 7.21 ERA after going 41-for-41 in save opportunities in 2008, kept the periodic pain in his elbow under wraps during the regular season.

"Brad could be one to two weeks behind in spring training," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said in a statement, "but, overall, we feel very good about his recovery time."
 

Posted by David Murphy @ 9:40 PM  Permalink | 23 comments
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins and centerfield Shane Victorino again took home National League Gold Glove awards today.

Rollins won for the third consecutive year and had a .990 fielding percentage, the best in the major leagues at his position. He committed a league-best and career-low six errors in 607 total chances. Among all NL shortstops in 2009, Rollins ranked second in games (152) and innings (1364.2), fourth in putouts (212), sixth in total chances and assists (389) and eighth in double plays (72).

Rollins becomes the fifth Phillie to win at least three Gold Gloves, joining Mike Schmidt (10), Garry Maddox (8), Manny Trillo (3) and Rolen (3). Last season, Rollins was the first Phillies shortstop to win the award in consecutive seasons (2007-09) and the first Phillie to do so since Scott Rolen (2000-01). The last NL player to win three straight Gold Gloves at shortstop was Rey Ordonez, of the New York Mets (1997-99).

“I would like to thank the managers and coaches who felt I was worthy of a Gold Glove Award,” Rollins said in a statement. “Defense is a very important part of my game and it truly is an honor to be recognized as one of the best defensive players in the league.” 

Victorino won his second consecutive Gold Glove. He made one error in 345 chances for a fielding percentage of .997. Last year, he made two errors in 323 chances.

He started a career-high 149 games in centerfield for the Phillies and led all NL centerfielders in fielding percentage, was second in games and innings (1330.1), fourth in both total chances and putouts (336) and was tied for fifth in assists (8). Victorino is the first Phillies outfielder to win the award in consecutive seasons since Maddox, who did so in eight straight seasons (1975-82).

“I take a lot of pride in fielding my position so it is an honor to be awarded with another Gold Glove this season,” Victorino said in a statement. “I would like to thank the managers and coaches who voted for me and who believe that I am one of the best in a league full of outstanding players.”

This is the 11th time in franchise history the Phillies have had multiple Gold Glove winners. It is the third straight year that the Phillies have had multiple winners (2007: Rollins and Aaron Rowand and 2008-09: Rollins and Victorino).

The list of winners:

First base: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego

Second base: Orlando Hudson, Los Angeles

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies

Third base: Ryan Zimmerman, Washington

Outfielders: Shane Victorino, Phillies; Michael Bourn, Houston; Matt Kemp, Los Angeles

Catcher: Yadier Molina, St. Louis

Pitcher: Adam Wainright, St. Louis

Posted by Daily News staff @ 3:36 PM  Permalink | 43 comments
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Got a text from a friend last night. Told her I was in Chicago. She said "awesome." And I really can't blame her. Chicago, after all, is awesome. Belushi, Second City, Oprah, the Lake, every good-looking Midwestern girl who wasn't content to settle down with her high school sweetheart in Fort Wayne. All of that is awesome.

The O'Hare Hilton, however, is not awesome. In fact, it's the opposite of awesome, unless your idea of awesome is Tom Hanks in "The Terminal." Because that is what these GM meetings are like. The hotel is inside the airport. My hotel room overlooks a runway, where at the moment I am staring longingly at a plane taking off and fantasizing about the happy little lives of all the people inside. I'm not sure if the little bottles of shampoo in my bathroom are there because that is what all hotels use, or because they couldn't get the big ones through security.

The only worse place to spend three days is inside a hospital. And even then, at least there is access to painkillers.

I can almost picture the scene that went down in the league offices in Manhattan as they contemplated how to make this year's gathering even more unbearable than usual.

BUD SELIG: I've got it! Let's hold them at a hotel by an airport!

ASSISTANT: I like where your head is at, Allan. But why stop there? Let's hold them at a hotel that is actually inside an airport!

SELIG: And not just any airport!

SELIG AND ASSISTANT (in unison): O'Hare!

Last year, Major League Baseball at least had the decency to stage this annual event at an upscale resort that sits on the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Don't get me wrong: whatever the venue, the GM meetings are not a pleasurable experience. Rikers Island is still Rikers Island, despite the waterfront view. You sit around a hotel lobby all day waiting to talk to people who do not want to talk to you, and even if they did want to talk, they wouldn't have much to say, because the free agent signing period does not begin until Nov. 20  and nobody will have any idea about how the market will unfold until then.

"We haven't ruled anybody out," Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said yesterday.

And neither have I, but at least I've had a chance to test the market and eliminate the possibility of raising a family with Jessica Biel.

I don't want to sound too whiny or self-indulgent, so I won't mention the fact that there was no smoked salmon on the 23-dollar breakfast buffet, and I will point out that the GMs dislike these things almost as much as the reporters who cover them. The happiest guys in town yesterday were the assistant GMs who did not have to sit through the 4.5 hour morning meeting.  
The one positive? Folks only have to walk about five minutes to get on their planes this afternoon.

And that's good. Because they can't wait to leave.

^

OK, OK. I was being slightly melo-dramatic above. But I haven't blogged for awhile, and I wanted to give you guys a chance to consternate me for complaining about covering baseball while you are staring at the start of another 9-to-5.

In reality, these GM meetings do provide an interesting chance to gain some insight on how the rest of the world views these Phillies. Which is where I'd like to begin, because several times over the past 48 hours I have heard other reporters express surprise at the Phillies' decision to decline Pedro Feliz's 2010 option, usually with a rationale that sounds something similar to, "Don't they already have enough offense?"

But like all things in this sport, the answer to that question depends on one's definition of "enough."

At this waypoint in Phillies history, Amaro's definition of "enough" is "Can we win a championship with what we have?" The most jaded Philadelphians among us still might have a hard time believing that, but his actions over the last year have spoken: It would have been easy not to trade for Cliff Lee, not to sign Pedro Martinez and relegate Jamie Moyer to the bullpen, not to bump final 2009 expenditures close to $140 million. But the Phillies have made it clear they are suddenly devout Ricky Bobbians. And if it is true that you are last if you ain't first, then the Yankees knocked the Phillies down to last place, and it is through that prism that they must evaluate their personnel.

Which brings us to offense. They led the National League in scoring in 2009, which is all well and good, because they won the National League. But they did not beat the American League, and four teams in the AL finished above them in scoring. And while it is tough to compare totals between the two leagues because of the DH, even when you disregard the runs created out of the No. 9 spot in the order (which in the AL is manned by a hitter and in Phillies line-ups is manned by a pitcher), the Phillies still were outscored by the Yankees by 40 runs. This is over-simplifying things, because even if the No. 9 hitter in an AL line-up doesn't create a run, he might get a two-out hit that keeps an inning alive or contribute in some other manner. But I don't have the mathematical capability to figure out a formula to account for such things, so I retreat to simplicity.

The biggest weakness in the Phillies' line-up was its consistency. They  scored seven or more runs in 46 games, which was more than  Colorado (43), the Dodgers (42), St. Louis (36) and Minnesota (43), all playoff participants. But they scored four or fewer runs in 82 games, which was more than New York (69), the Angels (79), the Red Sox (73), the Dodgers (73) and Minnesota (80).

So they scored seven or more runs eight fewer times than the Yankees, but scored four or fewer runs 13 more times.

They rattled off more crooked numbers than the Dodgers or the Twins, but also logged more impotence.

A big difference? Perhaps not. But neither was the difference between a second-straight World Series title and a disappointing second-place finish.

Which led to the decision to turn Feliz free. In doing so, they have the opportunity to fill two offensive holes -- at third base, and at the No. 7 spot in the order, both of which have been manned by Feliz the last two seasons.

^

Last year, the Phillies' posted a .704 OPS at the No. 7 spot in the line-up, which ranked 19th in the majors. (I'm using OPS, which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage, because RBIs and runs scored are variables that are dependent on other parts of the order).

By comparison, the Yankees' .862 OPS at No. 7 ranked 1st. And even if you use their OPS at No. 8 to account for the DH (Manuel, after all, used his No. 7 hitter at No. 8 at Yankee Stadium), it was still 69 points higher than that of the Phillies' seven-hole hitters.

The Dodgers, who lets not forget were a Jimmy Rollins walk-off double away from tying the NLCS at 2-2 and regaining home field advantage, posted a .842 OPS at No. 7, the best mark in the National League.


Feliz did hit .336 with runners in scoring position, the best mark on the team. So in no way are we saying that he performed poorly. But again, remember the defintion of "enough" off of which we are working. And in this case, "enough" might be finding a player who reaches base even when he isn't driving in runs, thereby keeping the line-up moving (Feliz hit just .243 with no runners in scoring position, .221 with the bases empty and .210 with two outs).

In the Phillies' line-up, No. 1, No. 7 and No. 8 were the only three slots in the batting order that finished outside of the Top 7 in the majors in OPS:

  1. .709 (25)
  2. .860 (1)
  3. .908 (2)
  4. .914 (3)
  5. .857 (5)
  6. .818 (7)
  7. .704 (19)
  8. .736 (21)

Looking at those numbers, it is easy to see why the Phillies line-up occasionally struggled: Statistically speaking, the four weakest spots in the batting order, including the pitcher, hit in succession. But Carlos Ruiz, the normal eight-hole hitter, isn't going anywhere, and neither is Jimmy Rollins, the normal leadoff hitter. Which leaves No. 7.

Looking at the available third baseman, it is easy to envision the possibilities that could arise out of an upgrade. The Angels' Chone Figgins is one candidate, although a lot of things would have to fall correctly to land him. Figgins' career on base percentage is 34 points higher than Rollins', and Rollins' career slugging percentage is 51 points higher than Figgins'. So adding Figgins would not only theoretically improve the No. 1 spot, but No. 7 as well, with either Rollins or Victorino or Raul Ibanez potentially hitting there.

Then we have Adrian Beltre, who could would bring more power to the seven-hole, or perhaps hit fifth and allow Jayson Werth to his seventh.

And then there is Mark DeRosa, and Placido Polanco, and Miguel Tejada, all of whom could be used at a variety of spots in the line-up.

^

The worst-case scenario, of course, is that all of the Phillies' targets -- Amaro said he had reached out to five or six prospective free agents -- end up signing elsewhere, and Feliz decides against returning to the team that turned down his option.

But that seems far-fetched.

By my count, there are eight teams that could potentially be in the market for a third baseman, but one of them is the Marlins, who are more apt to host a Fidel Castro Appreciation Night than they are to spend money this offseason.

So that leaves seven competitors (Phillies, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles). And Amaro has already said that he has talked to at least six prospective free agents (Educated guess: Beltre, Figgins, DeRosa, Polanco, Tejada and Troy Glaus), although there are plenty more options, including Feliz and Joe Crede.

Which means there is little chance they are left in the cold, even if it comes to re-signing Feliz at a lower dollar amount, which would in theory enable them to spend more money on the bullpen and bench.

Here is a breakdown of the third base situation in the majors, ranked on a scale of least to most need.

  1. Mets - David Wright
  2. Nationals - Ryan Zimmerman
  3. Yankees - Alex Rodriguez
  4. Rays - Evan Longoria
  5. Rangers - Michael Young
  6. Diamondbacks - Mark Reynolds
  7. Giants - Pablo Sandoval
  8. Braves- Chipper Jones
  9. Padres - Kevin Kouzmanoff
  10. Pirates - Andy LaRoche
  11. Cubs - Aramis Ramirez
  12. Reds - Scott Rolen
  13. White Sox - Mark Teahen
  14. A's - Brett Wallace
  15. Royals - Alex Gordon
  16. Tigers - Brandon Inge
  17. Brewers - Casey McGehee
  18. Indians - Jhonny Peralta
  19. Jays - Edwin Encarnacion
  20. Rockies - Ian Stewart
  21. Dodgers - Casey Blake
  22. Red Sox - Mike Lowell/Kevin Youklis
  23. Marlins - No money
  24. Orioles - Melvin Mora is a FA; Possible Beltre fit?
  25. Astros - Jeff Keppinger not a great hitter, but do they have money to upgrade?
  26. Twins - Crede is a FA and Nick Punto is not a great everyday option
  27. Angels - They have internal options, but nobody close to Figgins
  28. Mariners - Beltre is a free agent
  29. Cardinals - DeRosa and Glaus are both free agents. Their available cash will be affected, either positively or negatively, by the futures of free agents Matt Holliday and Joel Piniero.
  30. Phillies - No minor league options. Greg Dobbs not viewed as everyday player.

A lot of this can be affected by players moving positions. Figgins can play virtually any position on the field, as can DeRosa. Polanco has played just one game at third since leaving the Phillies in 2005. Tejada has never played third, although many have projected him there. Might a team like the Yankees make a play for Figgins if Johnny Damon leaves via free agency? What about the Tigers?

There's no doubt the Phillies took a risk when they declined Feliz's option. But given what they view as "enough," and the options that are out there, they decided it was a risk worth taking.

The Phillies have proven over the last two seasons that pitching and defense are the most important pieces in the path to the promised land, so a return by Feliz will still keep them in a position to contend. But the Yankees showed this year that it is also going to take pitching and defense and a well-rounded offense to beat them in the World Series. Maybe a marginal upgrade over Feliz will do the trick. And with Amaro determined to upgrade the bullpen and the bench, it is unclear whether he will have enough money to land a player like Figgins. If it comes down to an either/or, you can bet he will err on the side of the bullpen. He said yesterday that he was unlikely to dole out a contract on the scale of the three-year, $31.5 million deal that landed Ibanez. It might not take that much to land Figgins - he is 32 years old, on year older than Jimmy Rollins, and is a similar player to the Orioles' Brian Roberts, who signed a four-year, $40 million extension in January (The difference between Ibanez's $11.5 million salary and a $10 million salary could be another bullpen arm or bench player). But it might. And even if it does, the Phillies could get creative, backloading the contract for raises in 2011, when they have just over $70 million committed to seven players, and 2012, when Chase Utley is the only player currently under contract..

Posted by David Murphy @ 9:23 AM  Permalink | 104 comments
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About David Murphy
David Murphy joined the Daily News as its Phillies beat writer in February of 2008. Born in Upper Merion and raised in the Poconos, he attended college at La Salle University before taking jobs with the Myrtle Beach (S.C.) Sun-News and the St. Petersburg ( Fla. ) Times.

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