Football: Pondering power points

Since when do you need a math degree to cover high school football?

It's crazy this week, trying to calculate the scenarios for the playoff fields, especially in that zany, madap place known as Group 4.

The NJSIAA's fairly new system for power points is better than the old system. It's just confusing to English majors and others who do better with words and colors than with numbers.

Here's a semi-educated look at where we stand in SJ heading into the last weekend before the playoff fields are determined:

GROUP 4

This group is a mess but it' a fun mess. It appears like Southern (7-1, with 138 power points), Williamstown (6-1, 134) and Pennsauken (6-1, 131) are in.

Williamstown would get 15 PP by beating Winslow (2-6) this weekend, plus residuals. Pennsauken would get 19 PP by beating Eastern (3-5), plus residuals. So the Braves and Indians are looking at home games in the first round and maybe in the second, too.

Millville (7-0, 124) probably is in even if the Thunderbolts lose to AC (6-1, 110) in a Friday showdown. There might be a scenario that could eliminate Millville at 7-1 but it's pretty far-fetched.

Millville would get 28 PP with a win over AC and could secure the No. 1 seed, depending on residuals.

AC would be in with a win over Millville, since the Vikings would earn a jackpot of 31 PP, the highest possible total. That would move them to 144, plus residuals, so they even could get a first-round home game.

AC could still be in with a loss, but it's real foggy down here around the bottom berths in Group 4.

Shawnee (5-2, 105) probably will get in with a win over Wash. Twp. (5-2, 96) since that would be worth 25 PP. The Renegades jumped into the mix with that comeback win over Williamstown last Friday. Shawnee could still get in with a loss but they'd need a lot of help.

Wash. Twp. also would get 25 PP for beating Shawnee. That likely would get them in, although it's no sure thing. The Minutemen would likely be eliminated with a loss but that's not a lock, either, because there are scenarios in which just about everybody below them loses as well. But that's not going to happen.

Triton (6-1, 106) is another team that likely will qualify with a win over Woodrow Wilson (5-2, 84), a Group 3 team. The Mustangs would earn 24 PP, plus residuals, which would put them in pretty good shape.

But it's still possible, although not likely, that Triton could get edged out at 7-1, if a few teams currently seeded below the Mustangs spring upsets. That would be a tough deal for Triton and a function of the Mustangs not playing a schedule with Group 4 opponents.

Rancocas Valley (5-2, 97) is right in the mix. The Red Devils have quietly won five in a row after an 0-2 start. They have Hamilton West (5-2), a CJ Group 3 team. RV would get 24 PP with a win. The Red Devils are likely out with a loss. But with 121 PP, plus residuals with a win, they could grab the No. 7 or No. 8 spot.

Cherokee (5-2, 94) is the two-time defending champion in this tournament. The Chiefs would get 22 PP by beating Cherry Hill East (4-3, 83) on Saturday. That's 116 PP, plus residuals, and that could get the Chiefs back in the field as an extremely dangerous No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Cherokee likely is out with a loss.

Toms River North (4-3, 89) would get 28 PP by beating Manalapan (6-1), a CJ Group 4 team. So don't count the Mariners out.

EHT (4-3, 94) would get 28 PP by beating No. 1 St. Joseph (7-0), a N-P 1 team. That's a longshot, based on the way St. Joseph has been playing. But the Eagles will show up and play 48 minutes.

Absegami (4-3, 86) is another longshot with a tough foe. But the Braves would get 27 PP if they could upset Hammonton (6-1), a SJ 3 power.

Cherry Hill East (4-3, 83) needs to beat Cherokee, which would give the Cougars 25 PP. And hope a lot of other things happen.

GROUP 3

Timber Creek (7-0, 142) has locked up the No. 1 seed, especially since the Chargers have winless Highland on Friday.

Hammonton (6-1, 115) and Moorestown (5-3, 99) are in. Central (5-2, 91) likely would jump ahead of Moorestown for the No. 3 seed with a win over St. John Vianney.

Woodrow Wilson (5-2, 84) likely is in but would jump way up with a win over Triton. That would be worth 28 PP and could get the Tigers the No. 3 seed.

It's confusing at the bottom of this field as so many teams have already played eight games. Defending champion Lacey (4-4, 84), Kingsway (4-4, 81), Oakcrest (5-3, 80) and Delsea (4-4, 79) will rely on residuals.

Manchester Twp. (4-3, 72) can earn 22 PP by beating Point Pleasant Boror (4-3), a Group 2 team, and Mainland (3-4, 62) can earn 20 PP by beating Bridgeton (4-3), another Group 2 team.

GROUP 2

Haddonfield (7-0, 116), Cinnaminson (6-2, 109), West Deptford (6-1, 107) and Barnegat (4-3, 99) are in.

WD should jump ahead of Cinnaminson for the No. 2 seed by beating depletd Overbrook (2-5) this Saturday.

Pemberton (4-3, 86) has 1-7 Highstown this weekend. The Hornets should be in.

Willingboro (4-3, 82) has a big game with NBC (6-1), a CJ Group 3 team. The Chimeras would get 27 PP with that win, rocketing into position for a possible home game in the first round. Willingboro still should be in with a loss but it's not a sure thing.

Woodstown (5-2, 81) has 1-6 Clayton this weekend. That's a likely win, but just 10 PP. But the Woodies will be in the field.

Delran (4-4, 78) is banking on residuals. Point Pleasant Boro (4-3, 72) has a good chance against Group 3 Manchester (4-3) and Bridgeton (4-3, 62) could jump up with a win over Group 3 Mainland (3-4).

GROUP 1

This tournament should be wide open.

Pennsville (7-0, 110) will clinch the No. 1 seed by beating 1-6 Gloucester Catholic.

Glassboro (5-2, 96), Haddon Heights (6-1, 95) and Paulsboro (6-1, 95) are in, and playing for seeding.

Penns Grove (4-3, 75), everybody's favorite after Week 1, took a hit with a loss to Salem on Monday. The Red Devils should beat Pitman (1-6) and get in, but they probably won't a home game.

Salem (5-2, 71) opened eyes with that win over PG. Salem and Schalick (4-3, 54) play a game with major Group 1 implications this weekend. Schalick would get 22 PP with a win, and would qualify. Salem could still make it with a loss but a lot would depend on residuals.

Woodbury (4-3, 62) has tough duty this weekend at Haddonfield (7-0). The Thundering Herd could still qualify based on residuals but watch out for Palmyra (3-4), 57). The Pals got big PP for beating Holy Cross and would get 13 PP by beating Maple Shade (2-6) this weekend. They could jump in.

And don't forget Cedar Creek (3-4, 66), the new school in the Oakcrest-Absegami district. CC could get in the tourney in its first varsity season with a victory over Orange.

NP 1

Forget about it.

St. Joseph (7-0, 106) should cruise in what likely will be a four-team field. At least the Wildcats will get two games instead of one.

NP 2

It looks like Camden Catholic (7-0, 126) and Montclair Kimberley (7-1, 105) will get the top two seeds.

It could play out this way in a likely six-team field: Holy Spirit (4-3, 87) gets the No. 3 seed and plays No. 6 Queen of Peace (5-3, 65), while Holy Cross (4-3, 80) gets the No. 4 seed and plays No. 5 Bishop Eustace (4-3, 62).

That would send the Holy Cross-Bishop Eustace winner to Camden Catholic in the semis while Holy Spirit likely would travel to Montclair Kimberley.

That could set up a Camden Catholic-Holy Spirit state final, likely at Rutgers.

There are no SJ teams in NP 3 and neither Paul VI nor St. Augustine will qualify in NP 4.

-- Phil Anastasia