The Phillies are building an R & D department, and that's brilliant

OK, maybe brilliant is a little strong. I suggested they do such a thing this past summer. So it was more obvious than brilliant. But when compared with what it will be replacing, its significance cannot be overstated. First, though, let's backup. You probably heard that the Phillies hired a former Google analyst named Andy Galdi and gave him the title Director, Research and Development. They had previously promoted intern Lewis Pollis to a full-time analyst, again under ther the umbrella of Baseball Research and Development.

Pollis and Galdi both have backgrounds in using data modeling to identify market inefficiencies and untapped competitive advantages. Galdi reportedly worked on a project that adjusted various performance variables for referees invovlement. Prior to signing on with the Phillies, Pollis had done work in a number of baseball-specific areas, including the quantification of front office performance. If all of this sounds like a bunch of hocus pocus, well, welcome to the world of R and D. It is the ultimate theoretical playground, and it is perhaps the most important department in any serious corporation. Even if only one idea in 100 hits, if that one idea wins you a couple extra games and nets you a couple million bucks in value, well, it's already done more than Danys Baez did, and the Phillies paid him $5 million. Tell me again what's a waste of money.

What will Galdi and Pollis be working on? Who knows. But have you ever logged onto Google and started typing words into the search box and been freaked out that the thing filled in the rest of your search query like it could read your mind? Think about the various situations where that kind of predictive algorithmic thinking can correlate to competitive baseball advantage.

GOOGLE QUERY ENTERED BY OPPOSING PITCHER X: FB outside, FB outside, SL dirt. GOOGLE SUGGESTION: Change-up

That's a little extreme. But there are so many different areas within the context of a baseball organization where an accurate picture of reality and the probabilities of potential outcomes can help lead to wins. What is the optimal number of days Player X should play in a row before he gets a day off? How many innings should Minor League pitcher X pitch in his third season in the minors in order to provide the optimal combination of development and health preservation?

In my opinion, one of the greatest potential silver bullets in baseball is the projection of specific hitters against specific types of pitchers. Charlie Manuel always seemed to have an intuitive feel for what pitcher John Mayberry Jr. would be able to hit. The mind is no different from a computer. All intutition is is a really rough algorithm that operates at a subconscious level. Maybe Galdi can give Pete Mackanin a binder that says Peter Bourjos is the best hitter on the roster against 30+ year old righties who feature a 45/30/25 fastball/changeup/slider mix with a fastball that sits 88.5 MPH and a slider with a Spin Rate X and horizontal movement Y. Or, even more valuable, maybe he can identify free agent hitters who Macknanin can deploy to maximum efficiency in a platoon-type mix against pitcher toolsets. The Holy Grail as far as I am concerned is figuring out the probability that a prospect will be able to hit major league pitching, which still seems to be a complete crapshoot in all but the most outlying of cases. If the Phillies can somehow develop an algorithm that gives them a much greater degree of certainty w/r/t theirs and other's prospects, think about the kind of damage they can do in the trade market.

I'm not saying Galdi and Pollis are Stephen Hawking and John Nash. But, frankly, if I was John Middleton, I'd take every dollar I could be spending on a Jeff Francoeur type player over the next two years and use it to hire more R and D analysts.

Seriously. Again, think about Danys Baez. Think about what that $5 million bucks got you. Now think about using that $5 million to fund a decade worth of research and development analysts. Hell, I'd outbid Silicon Valley for these guys. Put them in a room and tell them to make a list of everything that can possibly be figured out about gaining a competitive advantage in baseball, and then put them in another room and tell them to start figuring it out. In an era where big market teams can't flex their money in free agency as well as in year's past, this is one place the Phillies can make their financial might felt.

Again, all it takes is one idea to pay for the whole thing, plus a couple of those aging middle relievers you're just dying to have on your roster.