Murphy: The Sixers' roadmap to the playoffs is right here
Joel Embiid said he was going to come back from a debilitating foot injury, and most of us laughed. He said that he was going to start shooting trey bombs, and most of us laughed. He said he wanted a Shirley Temple, and all of us laughed.
Now, Joel Embiid is back, and shooting trey bombs, and drinking Shirley Temples, and saying the Sixers have a chance to go to the playoffs. And we're still gonna laugh?
I got you, big fella. Let's make this happen.
In a desperate attempt to buy what the big fella was selling after the Sixers' third win in four games, I sat down at the kitchen table determined to identify a semi-realistic roadmap to the playoffs. I did not succeed.
Heading into the week, the Wizards and Bucks were sitting right at .500 in a tie for the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. Last season, the No. 8 seed finished with 44 wins. In each of the three seasons prior, the No. 8 finished with 38 wins. So let's go with that.
The Sixers entered the week 7.5 games out of a playoff spot at 10-25, meaning they'd need to go 28-19 the rest of the way to reach 38 wins. Doesn't sound too bad, does it?
Broken down by opponents' winning percentage, their 47 games are grouped thusly:
15 games vs teams at .568+
13 games vs teams at .500-.567
12 games vs teams at .366-.462
7 games vs teams at .222-.286
Let's say they sweep their seven games against the Nets, Mavs and Heat, and also their 12 games against the Knicks (4), Pistons (2), Magic (2), Trail Blazers (2), Kings (1) and Lakers (1). If they went 7-6 against the Bucks (4), Bulls (3), Hornets (2), Wizards (2) and Pacers (2), they'd still need to steal two games from the 15 they play against the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Cavs, Raptors, Clippers, Celtics, and Thunder.
Look at it another way: Even if the Sixers go 19-0 against the teams that entered the week with losing records, they'd still need to go 9-19 against teams with winning records to reach 38 wins. Again, they're 10-25 overall.
The Sixers haven't defeated a team that is currently in playoff position since Nov. 16, when they beat the Wizards for their second win of the season. (Their first win of the season, over the Pacers on Nov. 11, is their only other win against a team currently in playoff position.) Their eight wins since have come against the Nets (8-28), Timberwolves (11-26), Nuggets (14-23), Nets (8-28), Pistons (18-21), Pelicans (14-24), Heat (11-28), and Suns (12-26).
A more realistic target — slightly, anyway - would be the 34 wins that the Sixers posted in their last season before Sam Hinkie arrived with his policy of victoria non grata. That was 2012-13, with a team that featured Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Jason Richardson and Spencer Hawes, among others.
Still, don't lose that spirit, big guy.