Murphy: Phillies face key question while shopping for left-handed hitter
At some point in the next 33 days, the Phillies will need to answer an existential question: What kind of team do we think we can be?
Maybe they've already answered it, and what we see now is what we're going to get when pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater on Feb. 12 for the first day of spring training. But the free-agent market is getting to a point at which a team such as the Phillies could find themselves with an opportunity to make a bold play.
Clearly, we're talking in a certain context here. No matter what happens to the market from here on out, the Phillies are not going to be signing anybody to a deal of longer than one or two years. They won't be giving you a reason to go jersey shopping.
But as the hot stove enters its final month, the Phillies are looking to add at least one left-handed bat, which club president Andy MacPhail acknowledged in a radio interview with Sirius XM a few days ago.
Question is, what kind of bat can they accommodate? The answer depends on the answer to the question we raised at the outset: What kind of team do they think they can be? Are they a team that could improve upon last year's surprising success if they found a way to add a middle-of-the-order bat to one of the corner outfield positions? Or are they a team that will prioritize plate appearances that will enable young players such as Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams to continue (or begin) the process of proving (or disproving) themselves as viable big leaguers?
If it's the latter, then it's tough to envision a scenario in which the Phillies jump into the fray and try to land one of the two left-handed power bats who could be in line for a shorter term deal than they might've expected.
As a visual aid, here's how my projection of how the Opening Day offense will look:
Lineup
1. Odubel Herrera, LHB, CF
2. Cesar Hernandez, SHB, 2B
3. Howie Kendrick, RHB, LF
4. Tommy Joseph, RHB, 1B
5. Maikel Franco, RHB, 3B
6. Roman Quinn, SHB, RF
7. Cameron Rupp, RHB, C
8. Freddy Galvis, SHB, SS
Bench
1. Andres Blanco, SHB, IF
2. Aaron Altherr, RHB, OF
3. Veteran, LHB, OF/IF
4. Daniel Nava, SHB, OF
5. Andrew Knapp, SHB, C
The marquee name who could end up in bidding distance of the Phillies is Michael Saunders (again, context), who is coming off a season in which he posted an .815 OPS and 24 home runs for the Blue Jays. It's really hard to imagine him identifying the Phillies as the best situation. He's only 31, and while his injury struggles will depress his market, you gotta think he can at least snag a short-term deal to play for a team with a better shot at contending.
The second name might be a little more realistic. Back in 2011, Brandon Moss went 0 for 6 with two strikeouts for the Phillies before sliding into the shadow of the immortal John Bowker. Moss, 33, is coming off a .784-OPS, 28-homer season for the Cardinals. He has an .803 OPS and has averaged 25 home runs in five seasons since leaving Philly.
On paper, he seems like the kind of player who might be wooed if the Phillies were to blow all of his other one- or two-year contract offers out of the water. But if they were to do that, they'd also essentially be guaranteeing him a regular spot in the lineup in some combination of first base and corner outfield, where he'd complement the right-handed-hitting Howie Kendrick and Tommy Joseph.
It'd be an intriguing possibility if the Phillies' only concern was bolstering their offense. But they also have top prospect Williams (a lefty), prospect Quinn (a natural lefty who is a switch hitter), and Altherr (a righty).
These things tend to work themselves out: Williams didn't exactly tear it up at Triple-A last year, Altherr struggled after returning from a wrist injury, and Quinn is a question mark on both the health and performance fronts (he has a swing with a bit of an upper cut that can get a bit long). That is to say that the Phillies could sign a veteran to play one of the corner spots with Kendrick and then spend the first half of the season with some rotation of Quinn and Altherr in the other corner spot, and then use the results of the first few months of the season to decide how to proceed with Williams. If all of them are playing well, then that's a good problem to have (and rectified via trading one of the veterans who is playing well).
Moss seems like an ideal option because he could mix in with Joseph at first base from time to time (or for good if Joseph can't repeat or build upon his 2016 success).
But this isn't about money. The Phillies seem to have the willingness, and they clearly have the wherewithal, to win a bidding war on a one- or two-year deal. They're paying Jeremy Hellickson $17 million this season, remember. The question is whether they think a veteran such as Moss is worth the at-bats they'd be giving to him, and, from Moss' perspective, is it worth playing for a team in the midst of a youth movement if he can sacrifice some money and play for a contender?
If it's the latter, then the left-handed bat we'll be talking about is more along the lines of what Peter Bourjos was last year.
Here are seven options:
1. Chris Coghlan, IF/OF, LHB: Bounce-back candidate. 2009 NL Rookie of the Year with the Marlins, was a solid contributor for the Cubs in 2014-15 (.793 OPS, 25 home runs, 935 PAs) and down the stretch last season. Not much pop but can play anywhere and is 31 years old.
2. Gregor Blanco, OF, LHB: Solid contributor for the Giants in 2014-15 (.741 OPS, 29 SB in 816 PAs), struggled last season in diminished role (.620 OPS in 274 PAs). 33 years old. Has never played 1B.
3. Logan Morrison, 1B/OF, LHB: Still only 29 years old, he's looking for his fourth major-league team. While he's never lived up to the promise he showed in his first couple of seasons, when he hit 25 home runs with an .811 OPS in 812 plate appearances for the Marlins, Morrison gave the Rays 14 home runs and a league-average bat (.733 OPS, 101 OPS+) in 398 plate appearances last season. He was an outfielder up until 2012. Hasn't played much there since, but last season was the first that he didn't play there at all.
4. Colby Rasmus, CF, LHB: Perhaps a more likely candidate than Moss, since Rasmus is a bounce-back candidate who should be happy that somebody wants to give him a chance coming off a .641 OPS season for the Astros. Only problem (besides the numbers) is he's never played first base.
5. Luis Valbuena, IF, LHB: We're getting way outside of the box here, but this is an intriguing name who remains unsigned despite his ability to play second and third base and his .776 OPS and 54 home runs over the last two seasons in Chicago and Houston. Hard to envision a scenario in which that would make sense for either party, as Valbuena would not get much playing time at third because of the presence of Franco, or second because of Hernandez. Valbuena has played some first base and has logged 15 innings in left field, but that isn't usually the kind of role someone of his ilk would be satisfied with.
6. Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B, LHB: .826 OPS and 22 home runs in 337 at-bats for the Orioles last year at age 29. But he's never played outfield.
7. James Loney, 1B, LHB: The perennial bounceback candidate is what he is at this point. Last year, that was 13 percent below league average for the Mets, though he did post a .742 OPS with eight home runs in 291 at-bats against righties. Doesn't play outfield.