Carlos Carrasco and the uncertainty of the Phillies' rebuild

There is no one way to build a baseball team, but whatever way you choose will require a fair amount of good luck. That's a daunting thought for the Phillies, who have done a solid job of getting the big league roster back to a point where it is competitive most nights.

The player who best encapsulates the Phillies' current stage of rebuilding might be Carlos Carrasco. Remember him? He was the true O.G., as in, the original guy traded for Cliff Lee. There were lots more. Thus far, he's been the best.

That's a remarkable thing. When the Phillies traded him to the Indians in the original Lee deal in 2009, Carrasco was 22 years old and had lost some shine off his luster after finishing the previous year as the team's top pitching prospect. That's the same age that Jake Thompson and Aaron Nola were at the start of this season. He was awful in five starts for the Indians late in 2009 (8.87 ERA, 4.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.4 HR/9). He was OK in 2010-11, starting 28 games and posting a 4.41 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9. Then he got hurt, missed all of 2012, and came back in 2013 and posted a 6.75 ERA and piddling strikeout and walk rates in seven starts and eight relief appearances.

At the age of 27, four full seasons after the Indians acquired him, Carrasco had appeared in 48 big league games with the following career numbers: 5.29 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9.

In the three years since, Carrasco has blossomed, making 63 starts and 26 relief appearances with a 3.22 ERA and sparkling rates of 9.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9. This year, he's a big reason why the Indians are 68-50 and in first place.

While Carrasco's trajectory is hardly the norm, it is a good reminder of the uncertainty that confronts the Phillies as they work their way through the building phase of the rebuild. Nola, Thompson and Vincent Velasquez are 22, 23, and 24 years old. Thompson has been erratic in his first three starts, walking nine batters and allowing three home runs with 11 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings. Nola had a 4.78 ERA before the Phillies shut him down with an elbow strain. Velasquez's stuff has looked great, but he is averaging just five innings per start with a 4.14 ERA to go with his 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9.

Some young pitchers make it look easy. These guys haven't. That's not to say they won't someday. Carrasco certainly has.