Gov. Corzine is in Washington today after meeting with President Obama, but he has "no interest" in staying there as Commerce secretary, he said this afternoon.

"We’ve got enormous challenges in New Jersey and I’m working on trying to serve the people of New Jersey as best we can as we go through this very difficult economic time," Corzine told reporters on a conference call. "We need consistent focus on that and I have no interest in the commerce secretary position. I like what I’m doing."
 

Corzine said that "no one has spoken to me about" the open spot in the Obama administration.

In asking Corzine whether he would be interested, PolitickerNJ.com reporter Matt Friedman noted that Corzine has been a very public face in selling the stimulus plan.

The commerce post remains open after Republican Sen. Judd Gregg withdrew from consideration. Obama's original pick, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, also withdrew.

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The compromise has been done for days and the ink on the stimulus bill is dry. So how much is in it for New Jersey?

Depends on who you ask and how you measure it - although there is broad agreement on the big picture. Two groups with an eye on the plan say the figure is probably around $6.3 to $6.6 billion. But another group says it may be as large as $17 billion - and Gov. Corzine quoted this figure Tuesday. What gives?

The big difference is that the $6 billion-ish estimates were made counting only items that will help New Jersey government, its programs,  public works projects and other public needs. They come from the U.S. Senate Democratic Policy Committee (DPC) and Federal Funds Information for States (FFIS).

The larger figure comes from the left-leaning Center for American Progress, which championed the stimulus bill. The center analysis includes roughly $10.3 billion estimated to flow to individuals in New Jersey in the form of tax breaks, unemployment benefits and other help for individuals. Adding the (roughly) $10.3 billion and the (roughly) $6.5 billion gets you to around $17 billion. Some of the differences also comes because the Center thinks more money will come to some Jersey programs than in the DPC and FFIS summaries.

While there might still be some movement on the exact, specific amounts that come New Jersey, all three estimates basically agree on the big picture. There will be about $1.3 billion for "stabilization" aid to the state budget, largely for education spending; $2.2 billion for Medicaid; around $650 million for highway funding and $524 million for mass transit; about $350 million for special education and $253 million for low-income students and $296 million in food stamps. These numbers all come from the Policy Committee, which estimates that under the major provisions of the bill, New Jersey is in line for about $6.2 billion in aid. Another $208 million would go to the state's unemployment trust fund, for a rough total of $6.4 billion.

FFIS, which analyzes federal policy's impact on states, comes up with an estimate of about $6.3 billion, not counting the unemployment fund money. Add that in and Jersey is at $6.5 billion - almost the same as the policy committee. So it seems safe to say that $6.5 billion is about the right figure for government.

The amount matters politically. Republicans are pointing to federal data that show that New Jersey pays about 4.5 percent of the taxes collected by the IRS, but at $6.5 billion is only in line for about 2 or 3 percent of the money going to states.

At $17 billion the stimulus benefits to Jersey sound a lot bigger and more attractive, but it still only represents 2.2 percent of the overall package.

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Trenton Mayor Doug Palmer may be a lot of things. Subtle isn't one of them.

At an event Friday with Gov. Jon Corzine, Palmer, who political insiders see as a potential lieutenant governor nominee later this year, stepped to the podium and opened with this:

"I don't know why for the first time, being with the governor, I feel like I'm auditioning now," Palmer said, drawing laughs from most of the crowd and bugged-out eyes from the press corps.

No one who follows state politics would be surprised that Palmer is interested in the new slot as New Jersey's number two office holder, but no one else has yet been so forward about it. Maybe it'll just take some getting used to, since the lieutenant governor slot is a new position added to this year's ballot and no one is quite sure how the added wrinkle will play out, or just how forcefully the contenders will lobby to be picked.

Gov. Corzine and the winner of the Republican primary will choose a lieutenant governor to run with them after their party primaries. The Associated Press had a look at some of the contenders this past weekend.

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In one of the cuter press releases to cross our desks recently, Assemblyman John F. McKeon (D., Essex) declared love to be a renewable energy.

McKeon, chairman of the Assembly Environment and Solid Waste Committee, made the pronouncement on Friday, the day before Valentine's Day.

"Some of the most important aspects of human nature are renewable -- such as hope, faith, trust, loyalty and courage, and love, most certainly, is a renewable energy," said McKeon, a lawyer.

He added that love, "by enhancing our quality of life... creates a positive home and working environment." 

McKeon also noted that love is good for business and even recession-proof, noting that the U.S. National Retail Federation Survey estimates $14.7 billion in retail sales are projected for this Valentine's Day.

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Gov. Corzine said today he hopes Congress restores some of the state aid that was shrunk in the Senate version of the federal stimulus bill.

"I think some of the changes in the Senate were good. Some of them may be a little harsh in areas where we want to protect jobs, we want to protect public safety, we want to grow jobs in the educational field," Corzine said in an afternoon interview on MSNBC. "I think some argument about that in conference would be good and I will say it would be helpful to New Jersey."

One of the biggest pieces of state funding in the House version was $79 billion set aside largely to support education. But the Senate cut that amount nearly in half amid concerns of the packages overall cost.

Corzine said restoration of the higher level of aid "would be attractive for states."

"Any kind of support that actually comes through this will actually translate into retaining jobs and retaining services for the American people," Corzine said.

While the governor would like to see more money added, he said the most important thing is getting some stimulus approved to boost the overall economy.

Corzine faces a multi-billion deficit in the budget he is set to introduce March 10.

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That new Quinnipiac poll showing Republican Chris Christie leading Gov. Corzine caught the eye of Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza, who writes today that the governor is likely in for a difficult race, despite New Jersey's history of strongly supporting Democrats.

Here's Cillizza's analysis:

"Corzine has had a steady run of negative job approval numbers; his résumé as a former senior executive at Goldman Sachs, once considered one of his strongest assets, is now seen as a burden with the struggles of New York's financial sector bleeding into New Jersey (the state's unemployment rate hit a 15-year high in December); and in Christie, a former U.S. Attorney, Republicans finally may have found the quality candidate they have long been searching for."

Cillizza does note several factors in Corzine's favor, however. For one, he's sure to outspend any opponent. Second, New Jersey voters tend to decide late in elections and generally swing Democratic. Lastly, Christie has yet to fully define himself and Democrats will try at every turn to link him to President Bush. (He raised money for Bush and was appointed by him).

Cillizza concludes that it's possible, though not probable, that Corzine could lose, but says the governor faces a stiff test.

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New Jerseyans have a particularly grim outlook on the economy, and aren't very hopeful about the Democratic stimulus plan coming from Washington, according to several recent polls.

A Quinnipiac University poll out today found that 67 percent of New Jerseyans don't think the plan will help them personally, and only 51 percent are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that the stimulus will help solve the nation's economic problems.

The survey shows faith in President Obama's handling of the economy - 59 to 21 - but only 33 percent approve of the way Gov. Corzine is handling the economy.

The poll questioned 1,173 registered New Jersey voters and has a 2.9 percent margin of error.

Two recent analyses by Gallup also show that the bad news is having a bigger impact here than almost anywhere else in the country. Gallup's "State of the States" surveys put New Jersey among the top 10 states with the lowest consumer confidence and worst job market.

On the job market, New Jersey tied with California for seventh worst, according to Gallup. Its rankings were based on 2008 surveys that asked more than 100,000 people whether their companies were hiring, maintaining their work force or reducing employee counts. States with the smallest gaps between hiring and reductions ranked lowest. Michigan fared the worst while Wyoming did the best for job markets.

New Jersey ranked 10th worst in the Gallup analysis of consumer confidence. The rankings were based on questions asking Americans to rate the nation's economic conditions and say whether those conditions were getting better or worse. Gallup turned those answers into a formula, and New Jersey wound up with a -106 rating. Rhode Island was lowest, at -125. The most confident state was North Dakota, at -69.

Gallup noted that the places with the least confidence tended to be northeastern states with close ties to Wall Street and Michigan, with its struggling auto industry. The most confident states came from oil-producing areas that benefitted from rising oil prices in 2008.

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Gov. Corzine does not favor a tax increase in the current economic climate but he has not ruled out the possibility either, he said Thursday.

Given that New Jersey still does not know how much money, if any, it will receive from the federal government’s economic stimulus package, “We can’t take anything off the table,” Corzine said.

“This would be a very last resort action. I really don’t think it would be helpful.”

The governor made the comments at a press conference on an unrelated issue.

Corzine, who is seeking re-election in November, is seeking legislative approval for $812 million in mid-year budget cuts after the state budget gap grew from an estimated $1.2 billion to $2.1 billion. The state budget was approved at $32.9 billion, about $600 million smaller than the previous year’s.  

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The latest Quinnipiac University Poll, released on the same day former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie officially kicks off his campaign for the governor’s seat, shows the Republican contender leading Democratic incumbent Gov. Corzine 44 to 38 percent.

The poll indicates Corzine is losing ground; in Quinnipiac’s last survey on the election, in November, the governor led Christie 42-36.

The latest poll found voters disapprove of the job the Corzine is doing by 50-41 percent.

“Republican Christopher Christie has broken out of the gate as a strong challenger to Gov. Jon Corzine,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In less than four months, he has come from trailing the governor by six points to leading him by six points – a 12-point shift.”

“In that time, Corzine’s approval rating has slipped only a couple of points, but Christie’s favorability ratings have jumped by nine points,” Richards added.

“Corzine suddenly has become the underdog in this race and history will surely repeat itself in New Jersey in 2009. The big question is whether Corzine will come back like Democratic Gov. Brendan Byrne did in 1977 or go down to defeat like Jim Florio in 1993,” Richards said.

Still, incumbent Corzine has the advantage of being, well, the incumbent.  A full 61 percent of voters don’t know enough about Christie to form an opinion, but that’s down from 70 percent who said the same in November.

The poll found Christie is well ahead of his next closest Republican competitor, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. The other Republican candidates, Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine and Assembly member Rick Merkt both trail by a considerable margin.

The poll surveyed New Jersey registered voters from Jan. 29 to Feb. 2 and has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.

 

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