That new Quinnipiac poll showing Republican Chris Christie leading Gov. Corzine caught the eye of Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza, who writes today that the governor is likely in for a difficult race, despite New Jersey's history of strongly supporting Democrats.
Here's Cillizza's analysis:
"Corzine has had a steady run of negative job approval numbers; his résumé as a former senior executive at Goldman Sachs, once considered one of his strongest assets, is now seen as a burden with the struggles of New York's financial sector bleeding into New Jersey (the state's unemployment rate hit a 15-year high in December); and in Christie, a former U.S. Attorney, Republicans finally may have found the quality candidate they have long been searching for."
Cillizza does note several factors in Corzine's favor, however. For one, he's sure to outspend any opponent. Second, New Jersey voters tend to decide late in elections and generally swing Democratic. Lastly, Christie has yet to fully define himself and Democrats will try at every turn to link him to President Bush. (He raised money for Bush and was appointed by him).
Cillizza concludes that it's possible, though not probable, that Corzine could lose, but says the governor faces a stiff test.
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New Jerseyans have a particularly grim outlook on the economy, and aren't very hopeful about the Democratic stimulus plan coming from Washington, according to several recent polls.
A Quinnipiac University poll out today found that 67 percent of New Jerseyans don't think the plan will help them personally, and only 51 percent are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that the stimulus will help solve the nation's economic problems.
The survey shows faith in President Obama's handling of the economy - 59 to 21 - but only 33 percent approve of the way Gov. Corzine is handling the economy.
The poll questioned 1,173 registered New Jersey voters and has a 2.9 percent margin of error.
Two recent analyses by Gallup also show that the bad news is having a bigger impact here than almost anywhere else in the country. Gallup's "State of the States" surveys put New Jersey among the top 10 states with the lowest consumer confidence and worst job market.
On the job market, New Jersey tied with California for seventh worst, according to Gallup. Its rankings were based on 2008 surveys that asked more than 100,000 people whether their companies were hiring, maintaining their work force or reducing employee counts. States with the smallest gaps between hiring and reductions ranked lowest. Michigan fared the worst while Wyoming did the best for job markets.
New Jersey ranked 10th worst in the Gallup analysis of consumer confidence. The rankings were based on questions asking Americans to rate the nation's economic conditions and say whether those conditions were getting better or worse. Gallup turned those answers into a formula, and New Jersey wound up with a -106 rating. Rhode Island was lowest, at -125. The most confident state was North Dakota, at -69.
Gallup noted that the places with the least confidence tended to be northeastern states with close ties to Wall Street and Michigan, with its struggling auto industry. The most confident states came from oil-producing areas that benefitted from rising oil prices in 2008.
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Gov. Corzine does not favor a tax increase in the current economic climate but he has not ruled out the possibility either, he said Thursday.
Given that
“This would be a very last resort action. I really don’t think it would be helpful.”
The governor made the comments at a press conference on an unrelated issue.
Corzine, who is seeking re-election in November, is seeking legislative approval for $812 million in mid-year budget cuts after the state budget gap grew from an estimated $1.2 billion to $2.1 billion. The state budget was approved at $32.9 billion, about $600 million smaller than the previous year’s.
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The latest Quinnipiac University Poll, released on the same day former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie officially kicks off his campaign for the governor’s seat, shows the Republican contender leading Democratic incumbent Gov. Corzine 44 to 38 percent.
The poll indicates Corzine is losing ground; in Quinnipiac’s last survey on the election, in November, the governor led Christie 42-36.
The latest poll found voters disapprove of the job the Corzine is doing by 50-41 percent.
“Republican Christopher Christie has broken out of the gate as a strong challenger to Gov. Jon Corzine,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In less than four months, he has come from trailing the governor by six points to leading him by six points – a 12-point shift.”
“In that time, Corzine’s approval rating has slipped only a couple of points, but Christie’s favorability ratings have jumped by nine points,” Richards added.
“Corzine suddenly has become the underdog in this race and history will surely repeat itself in
Still, incumbent Corzine has the advantage of being, well, the incumbent. A full 61 percent of voters don’t know enough about Christie to form an opinion, but that’s down from 70 percent who said the same in November.
The poll found Christie is well ahead of his next closest Republican competitor, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. The other Republican candidates, Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine and Assembly member Rick Merkt both trail by a considerable margin.
The poll surveyed
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Patricia Mueller, a veteran political operative and political director for the New Jersey Council of Carpenters, has been nominated to join the School Development Authority's board of directors.
Mueller, who ran President Obama's New Jersey campaign last year, was nominated Monday by Gov. Corzine. She must be confirmed by the Senate to join the SDA, which oversees school construction funded by a recent $3.9 billion borrowing bill.
Mueller grew and lives in Haddonfield, according to Corzine's office (in the summer she was in Merchantville). Her father, Bart, was the mayor of Oaklyn and later director of the South Jersey Transportation Authority.
Mueller has worked on campaigns for Corzine, former Gov. Jim McGreevey and Sens. Frank Lautenberg and Robert Menendez.
We profiled her this summer when she was named to lead the Obama campaign.
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-- By Matt Katz, Inquirer Camden County reporter
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Affordable housing advocates are fighting back against claims that recent housing mandates will damage an already weak economy.
The Cherry Hill-based Fair Share Housing Center released a report Monday arguing that the plans towns submitted in December to provide for affordable housing could generate $15 billion to $25 billion in development over the next decade.
"Housing helps the economy," said David Kinsey, a Princeton-based planning consultant who worked on the study.
The center's argument is that by forcing towns to plan for new affordable housing mandates, many have proposed changing their zoning to allow more density or to revamp old, out of use sites that could be changed into housing. The new rules would allow for some 75,000 new housing units, including 15,000 affordable units, said Adam Gordon, an attorney at the housing center.
The study looked at 268 affordable housing plans towns submitted in December.
Of course, many towns say they can't handle so much new housing and have no room for it. Mayors argue that so much new housing could force towns to pay for added infrastructure such as roads, sewers and schools, with local taxpayers to pick up the tab. And several members of both parties have pointed to a 2.5 percent development fee intended to pay for affordable housing as a serious barrier to construction activity when projects have already slowed due to the ailing economy. (Gov. Corzine has called for a moratorium on the fee).
The state's latest affordable housing mandates call for 115,000 affordable housing units by 2018. Towns have to plan for them, but have objected in court, saying the quotas are too large.
The study also said towns are sitting on a combined $230 million in funds dedicated to affordable housing to help pay for some of the needs. The money has not been used as court battles have waged over what towns' final obligations will be.
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One of the talks of Trenton today was the discussion surrounding a proposal to extend the elected terms for New Jersey lawmakers - up to five years for Senators (from four) and up to three years (from two) for the members of the Assembly - sometimes.
(Assembly members would serve a three year term, then two year term, then three year term, in order to cut out one election cycle per decade; Senate terms currently run for two years at the start of each decade followed by two four year terms).
Sen. Nicholas Scutari, a Union County Democrat, said the plan would reduce the focus on getting re-elected and raising money and give lawmakers more time to work on real issues. He said with more time between elections, lawmakers might not be so risk averse.
"Having some time between election cycles will allow legislators to cast aside political considerations," Scutari said.
Four of the five senators who discussed the plan in committee had been in the Assembly, and noted that it seems that every year they were preparing for a battle.
"You literally win an election, you get sworn in and you're thinking about the next campaign," said Sen. Jim Whelan.
There was no vote, but the discussion in the Senate State Government Committee opened a Pandora's box of ideas. Sen. Kevin O'Toole, a Republican, argued that term limits should be added to the discussion: maybe limiting Senators to 15 years in office and Assembly members to 12. Another Republican, Sen. Jennifer Beck, said the state needs more competitive districts, since most lean heavily to one party and are so safe that incumbents can cruise to victory after victory.
Sen. Loretta Weinberg, a Democrat, agreed with the idea of having tougher districts. (O'Toole noted that Weinberg's toughest political battles in her Bergen County district come not from Republicans but from within her own party).
Whelan, also a Democrat, argued against term limits, saying experience is an important factor in getting things done.
If all the changes discussed - longer terms, term limits, new legislative districts - it would shake up Jersey politics as we currently know it and produce significant upheaval at regular intervals. Beck suggested that increased competition would force lawmakers to remain in touch with their constituents.
"I think that's what our founding fathers had in mind. That you had a little chaos in one house and then you have more stability in the Senate," she said.
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Senator Raymond Lesniak (D., Union) won first place in an international speech competition on Sunday, Feb.1, speaking on the topic of the death penalty.
Lawyers from around the world, including the nations of France, Belgium, Guinea, Senegal, and Switzerland, competed in the Memorial de Caen International Human Rights Competition. Candidates must address the topic of breaches of human rights.
In Lesniak’s speech, titled, “The Road to Justice and Peace,” he argued that the death penalty “exposes the innocent to execution, causes more suffering to the family members of murder victims, serves no penal purpose and commits society to the belief that revenge is preferable to redemption.”
“I hope and believe this award will help efforts to abolish the death penalty wherever it exists,” Lesniak said after winning the competition. “I’m also proud as an American to receive this award for the defense of human rights at Le Memorial de Caen, the famous museum dedicated to honoring the D-Day invasion and the soldiers who lost their lives fighting for our freedom.”
Lesniak said he will donate his winnings, totaling about $9,740 from the Caen City Council, to The Road to Justice and Peace. Lesniak created the nonprofit to advance the cause of abolishing the death penalty, support families of murder victims and promote humane alternatives to incarceration. The group’s web site is: www.TheRoadToAbolition.com.
“When New Jersey abolished its death penalty, it chose redemption over revenge, healing over hate, peace over war,” Lesniak said in his speech. “We need more states and our federal government to make those same choices.”
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