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Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The compromise has been done for days and the ink on the stimulus bill is dry. So how much is in it for New Jersey?

Depends on who you ask and how you measure it - although there is broad agreement on the big picture. Two groups with an eye on the plan say the figure is probably around $6.3 to $6.6 billion. But another group says it may be as large as $17 billion - and Gov. Corzine quoted this figure Tuesday. What gives?

The big difference is that the $6 billion-ish estimates were made counting only items that will help New Jersey government, its programs,  public works projects and other public needs. They come from the U.S. Senate Democratic Policy Committee (DPC) and Federal Funds Information for States (FFIS).

The larger figure comes from the left-leaning Center for American Progress, which championed the stimulus bill. The center analysis includes roughly $10.3 billion estimated to flow to individuals in New Jersey in the form of tax breaks, unemployment benefits and other help for individuals. Adding the (roughly) $10.3 billion and the (roughly) $6.5 billion gets you to around $17 billion. Some of the differences also comes because the Center thinks more money will come to some Jersey programs than in the DPC and FFIS summaries.

While there might still be some movement on the exact, specific amounts that come New Jersey, all three estimates basically agree on the big picture. There will be about $1.3 billion for "stabilization" aid to the state budget, largely for education spending; $2.2 billion for Medicaid; around $650 million for highway funding and $524 million for mass transit; about $350 million for special education and $253 million for low-income students and $296 million in food stamps. These numbers all come from the Policy Committee, which estimates that under the major provisions of the bill, New Jersey is in line for about $6.2 billion in aid. Another $208 million would go to the state's unemployment trust fund, for a rough total of $6.4 billion.

FFIS, which analyzes federal policy's impact on states, comes up with an estimate of about $6.3 billion, not counting the unemployment fund money. Add that in and Jersey is at $6.5 billion - almost the same as the policy committee. So it seems safe to say that $6.5 billion is about the right figure for government.

The amount matters politically. Republicans are pointing to federal data that show that New Jersey pays about 4.5 percent of the taxes collected by the IRS, but at $6.5 billion is only in line for about 2 or 3 percent of the money going to states.

At $17 billion the stimulus benefits to Jersey sound a lot bigger and more attractive, but it still only represents 2.2 percent of the overall package.

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Posted by Jonathan Tamari @ 4:24 PM  Permalink | 1 comment
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