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Thursday, January 29, 2009

New Jersey is widely considered a reliably blue state. After all, Democrats control every aspect of government, the state has voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections and no Republican has won statewide since Christie Whitman in 1997.

But according to this Gallup analysis, New Jersey barely made the top 10 most Democratic states in 2008. It was tied for 10th among states, along with Maine, California and West Virginia. The District of Columbia was more Democratic than any state, technically bumping New Jersey down to a tie for 11th, according to Gallup.

Gallup's political rankings are based on both the number of registered Democrats and Republicans in each state and the preferences of independents. The Democratic figures include both registered Dems plus independents who lean Democratic; same for the GOP.

The most Democratic states (including the District) were, in order, D.C., Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Vermont. The top Republican states were Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Nebraska.

Ominously for Republicans, only five states (the ones listed above) were either solid or leaning Republican in 2008, meaning that the GOP had a five point edge or better. By contrast, 35 states and D.C. were either solid or leaning Democratic. The remaining 10 states were considered competitive - less than a four point edge for either side - though six of these also had slight Democratic bents. That didn't stop some of those supposedly Democratic states, notably West Virginia, which ranks up with New Jersey in terms of Democratic affiliation, from voting for John McCain in 2008.

The survey was one piece of a four-part Gallup "State of the States" analysis. We'll have more details on its other surveys - on the economy, religion and consumer confidence - later this week.

Click here for Philly.com's politics page.

Posted by Jonathan Tamari @ 1:02 PM  Permalink | 1 comment
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Garden State Grapevine covers news in South Jersey and Trenton.

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