Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Why are the Eagles 3-point underdogs?

First of all, Happy New Year to the loyal group of MTC readers out there.

Why are the Eagles 3-point underdogs?

First of all, Happy New Year to the loyal group of MTC readers out there.

It's time for our weekly visit from Dave Staley of sportsbook.com:

Q: What's the line for this weekend's matchup?

A: This game will most likely have the second-most action on it after the night game.

We currently have the Eagles as 3-point underdogs, which is exactly where it opened. However, the ‘juice’ on the spread has changed significantly. When the line opened, you could get the Eagles (+3) at even. Now, after a few days of action, the ‘juice’ has been adjusted to the Eagles (+3) -115.

This change has everything to do with the heavy action on the Eagles. When a spread is on a key number like 3, our lines guys will adjust the juice before the spread, more often than not. Considering that 83 percent of the money is on Philly, the move is not a surprise.

I am a bit surprised at the one-sided action, especially considering that it's on the 'dog.

However, bettors definitely back teams they have profited from, and Philly is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games. And even though Dallas has looked very good the last two weeks, I think some bettors are a little apprehensive backing them, given their traditional late-season struggles.

There are a few interesting trends to note for this game. The underdog in this series is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 matchups. Also, Philly is 20-8 against the spread in its last 28 NFC games. And finally, Dallas is just 4-11 against the spread in its last 15 games against the NFC East.

Q: What about the over/under?

A: As far as the total is concerned, we opened it at 48.5 and moved it down to 47, despite 68 percent of the total bettors backing the over. If the action stays this one-sided, the total could easily move back up to where it opened.

It isn’t surprising that this number is pushing 50 points, considering the offensive firepower that will be on the field Sunday. Philly and Dallas combine to average 51.1 points per game. However, on the other side of the ball, they combine to give up just 37.6 PPG.

Well, best of luck on Sunday Philly fans, and Happy New Year!

Sheil Kapadia Philly.com
About this blog
Sheil Kapadia is in his fifth season writing about the Eagles and the NFL for philly.com. His earliest memories as a sports fan include several trips to Veterans Stadium with his Dad. He's not a beat writer or an Insider, but is here to discuss the NFL 365 days a year. E-mail him at skapadia@philly.com or by clicking here

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Sheil Kapadia Philly.com
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