Why are the Eagles 3-point underdogs?
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Why are the Eagles 3-point underdogs?
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
First of all, Happy New Year to the loyal group of MTC readers out there.
It's time for our weekly visit from Dave Staley of sportsbook.com:
Q: What's the line for this weekend's matchup?
A: This game will most likely have the second-most action on it after the night game.
We currently have the Eagles as 3-point underdogs, which is exactly where it opened. However, the ‘juice’ on the spread has changed significantly. When the line opened, you could get the Eagles (+3) at even. Now, after a few days of action, the ‘juice’ has been adjusted to the Eagles (+3) -115.
This change has everything to do with the heavy action on the Eagles. When a spread is on a key number like 3, our lines guys will adjust the juice before the spread, more often than not. Considering that 83 percent of the money is on Philly, the move is not a surprise.
I am a bit surprised at the one-sided action, especially considering that it's on the 'dog.
However, bettors definitely back teams they have profited from, and Philly is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games. And even though Dallas has looked very good the last two weeks, I think some bettors are a little apprehensive backing them, given their traditional late-season struggles.
There are a few interesting trends to note for this game. The underdog in this series is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 matchups. Also, Philly is 20-8 against the spread in its last 28 NFC games. And finally, Dallas is just 4-11 against the spread in its last 15 games against the NFC East.
Q: What about the over/under?
A: As far as the total is concerned, we opened it at 48.5 and moved it down to 47, despite 68 percent of the total bettors backing the over. If the action stays this one-sided, the total could easily move back up to where it opened.
It isn’t surprising that this number is pushing 50 points, considering the offensive firepower that will be on the field Sunday. Philly and Dallas combine to average 51.1 points per game. However, on the other side of the ball, they combine to give up just 37.6 PPG.
Well, best of luck on Sunday Philly fans, and Happy New Year!
The refs protected the under the last time these two teams met. It is unlikely they'd fix the same way twice...take the over.— Joe Funk- ya, last time they even ruled against the replay spot.— bigphillydad
- Happy New Year !!!— Dilip_Kapadia
Dallas always gets the advantage by the field (un)officials. There is nothing worse than watching this game getting fixed. What is with these NFL Refs?? Notice how it always comes down to the last few tic-tocs?— NRGjunk- I loves my Iggles...but the damn 'Boys are looking too good to bet against.— TBear
- The Eagles are 3 point underdogs because everyone knows that if they win, they could geta bye in the first round, but everyone knows the Eagles never do anything the easy way. However, after winning the game on Thanksgiving, Dallas almost always loses, not all, but the majority of games afterwards. But you can't forget that when you play a Jerry Jones team, you are also playing against the Refs.— atp2007
- This game was fixed when the schedual came out last year. Like the Rooney's, Jones has taken care of the futures of the grandchrildren of these refs. The NFL should be embrassed of these owners.— bow
Comment removed.- The Buccaneers proved the win over New Orleans wasn't so great after all and the skins threw in the towel weeks ago. Eagles are the team looking to good to bet against.— ameadie
- Comment removed.
- I dont like the sound of 83% of people backing the Eagles....seems to mean the calls will go Dallas's way so Vegas can make money— DanGlesack
- I still cannot believe those two spots the refs called on the 3rd-1 and 4th-1 plays. Everyone I know (I live in BOSTON!) thinks the two spots were horrid. Give us those two spots, and we're looking at a different score.— trungy
- Comment removed.
I don't bet on ball games, and read this piece and accompanying comments just for recreation. You guys who do bet sure have a twisted view of what's going on. Everything's a conspiracy to make you lose your money. Enjoy the game... if you can.- Dave: I don't bet. I have no interest in it. But if you think the refs aren't influenced you are very naive. If 85% of bets are on the Birds, how can gambling interests let those bets win? Even if the refs fix the points, or the game, on their own they could have a friend make the wagers and split the take.— Lockyer
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