Why are the Eagles 1.5-point favorites?
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Why are the Eagles 1.5-point favorites?
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
We're excited to debut a new feature today at MTC.
Each week, we will run a brief Q&A with Dave Staley of sportsbook.com. Dave will join us to explain why the Eagles' line is what it is and break down how the public views the Birds' matchup.
If you ever have specific questions for Dave, let me know, and I will do my best to get answers from him.
Without further ado, here is the first installment:
Q: What's the process at sportsbook.com for coming up with the lines each week?
A: Well, I can’t tell you all of our secrets, but basically it comes down to our handicappers analyzing the key stats, trends, injuries, intangibles like revenge factors or must-wins situations, etc. Public perception is also factored in. If the handicappers feel the public is going to absolutely pound one side, they might be inclined to give a little extra value to the opposite side. For this reason, a lot of sharp football bettors bet a lot of underdogs and unders. Why? Because the public usually backs the favorites and overs so there is often a lot of extra value betting the underdogs and unders. For example, in Week 1, the majority of the early money so far is backing every favorite and 15 out of 16 overs. Not hard to figure out whom we’ll be rooting for. By the way, you can find those numbers on our Betting Trends page. We are so confident in our lines makers that we don’t mind giving our members this valuable information.
Q: What is the Eagles-Panthers line, and what were the major factors involved in coming up with it?
A: The line currently sits at Philly (-1.5). We actually just moved this line Tuesday morning. It was -1. When we opened this line a few months back, the Panthers were actually favored at -3 (+105). As you can see from the Betting Trends page linked above, 80 percent of the cash is currently on the Birds, which explains the line change. If you are going to back the Birds, getting on this line early might be a good idea because I think it will only go in one direction. I’m kind of surprised the Panthers are playing the dangerous role of home dogs. However, people are expecting big things from the Eagles this year. We currently have them as co-favorites at +500 to win the NFC along with the Giants and Vikings. Also, the way the Panthers got pummeled last year by the Cardinals left a sour taste in people’s mouths.
Q: What is the over/under, and what were the major factors involved in coming up with it?
A: Currently we have the total holding steady at 43.5. This is a pretty standard total. At first glance, the over looks like a solid bet considering that the the Eagles and Panthers ranked sixth and seventh respectively last season, combining for 51.9 points per game. However, the defenses combined to give up just 38.7 points per game last season. An interesting trend I just noticed and something that I’m sure will please your readers is that the Eagles are 10-4 against the spread the last 14 times they played a game where the total was between 42.5 and 49.
sheil,why are two and three the same exact questions?whats funny is he gave different answers.— stupidgurl- if 80% of the money is on the eagles, i hope it's a small amount of money... otherwise, the Eagles are already 0-1... cause 80% is probably high enough for vegas to call for a fix...— oTTo the CzAR
- Great feature, Sheil!— jimbo712
Comment removed.- sportsbook.com has no other interest than to encourage betting on football, and to encourage folks to balance out the bookies bets. Ever notice how they encourage betting against the public? Of course, they want to balance the bets on the books! Football betting is a sad industry, and I'm sad that Philly.com is helping this industry.— NickEeee
- I heard Vick is betting on football through sportsbook.com.— vladamir
- Sorry Sheil, The suit doesn't make you any smarter....look no further than this nonsense....Go to sportsbook.com and bet on how long this "new feature" will last....— wvbillz
- I wish people understood that the "betting line" is the FURTHEST thing from a prediction of the outcome. The betting line is set to even out the money on both teams competing in the contest - period! In other words, the line is set to benefit the people booking your bet. It is a reflection of public opinion or perception on who will win. So if you think the general public is good at making predictions on who will win games, that is the only way the "line" has any value as to picking a winner. And remember that "conventional wisdom" is an oxymoron. Las Vegas is not predicting that the Eagles will win a tight game. They are telling you that's what the public currently thinks. Me, I just circle the team I think will win on the back page of the Sports section on Sunday, and disregard the number in the middle. Loads of fun, and it costs $0. Lack of undue stress and heartburn on Game Day? Priceless!— montgomeryhopkins
- Whoops, sorry. The third question was obviously meant to be about the over/under. It's fixed now. Looks like Jimbo712 loves the feature, and wvbillz hates it. Sounds about right -- SK— skapadia
- i take my comments back... after checking out their "Betting Trends Page", i found that there are several other games (colts... cowboys... patriots...) that would get fixed way before the Eagles game would... so, assuming organized crime would only fix some of the games, it looks like the eagles-panthers game this week might be legit...— oTTo the CzAR
- "It's fixed now"....LOL...you're killin' me with the wordplay Skaps...maybe the suit is working after all...— wvbillz
- Don't particularly care what the sports bet folks think, not good ink SK, this will bring you down a bit, just sayin'...— FireChief
- Comment removed.
- I like the feature, keep it going.— Snake
- sheil please stick with the x and o's stuff.It is what makes your articles rise above the rest— stupidgurl
With the Birds offense weapons and without Dawk and JJ the over is the play this year.— Earl J- Count the Tonner as a fan of this column Sheil. The Tonner is a degenerate gambler. Well, the Tonner is an all around degenerate but gambling is one of his less sordid vices.
- Can you give us a 3 game parlay of the week we can take to Delaware?— joeolive
- "why are the eagles 1.5 point favorites" to answer with the question, why are they not 7.5 point favorites! your talking the carolina panters here, jake delahome. remember his last league game, what four interceptions, to the cardinals! this ain't the giants or falcons they're playing.— JACK V
- Nickee and Montgomery, hate to inform you but what the gentleman is saying is absolutely true. The Eagles are getting 80% of the money. Also, in fact Vegas is predicting that the Eagles will win a tight game as well as non betting analysts as well. Those lines are money (no pun intended). Half of those games you still wouldn't know which way to bet after the first half and into the 4th quarter since the lines are so good.— MidGreen
Montgomery, keep doodling in your paper while i'm counting money with my tongue cause my hands are gripped around wads of hundreds. No stress in my life cause it's so easy to make a living investing in sports. It's just like the stock market but with all the info at your fingertips, unlike the back door overnite deals that bankers scheme.- Carolina was 12-4 last year and 'birds 9-6-1. I agree Carolina is a dangerous home dog. Home field isn't what it use to be but in the old days, you would give 1.5-3 points just for playing at home. Is Vegas really telling me 'birds are more than a field goal favorite against Carolina at home opening night? 'birds also have some turbulence opening night. That said, GO BIRDS!— DennyP
Never could figure out why people like betting on games. I played fantasy football one year for $50 (entire season) and I got heartburn.— verve- this Gonzo-like - very disappointing, SK. But like #7 - I'll give you a second chance.— mebphila
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