Friday, May 24, 2013
Friday, May 24, 2013

What about Kolb? Evaluating Week 7

Was Sunday's game against the Titans Kevin Kolb's final start of 2010? Here's an in-depth look at how he performed and why he struggled.

54 comments

What about Kolb? Evaluating Week 7

POSTED: Wednesday, October 27, 2010, 1:21 PM

After two very good starts against the 49ers and Falcons, Kevin Kolb struggled last Sunday in the Eagles' loss to the Titans.

Here's the weekly breakdown of how Kolb performed. As always, let's start with the pass distribution.

  Targets Catches Yards YAC Drops
Jeremy Maclin 12 5 42 12 1
Jason Avant 7 6 60 7 0
LeSean McCoy 7 6 54 54 0
Riley Cooper 6 3 51 4 0
Brent Celek 4 2 8 4 0
Owen Schmitt 2 2 6 4 0
Chad Hall 2 1 5 5 0
Garrett Mills 1 1 5 0 0
TOTALS 41 26 231 90 1

Note that Kolb officially had 48 attempts. However, two of those balls were spiked to kill the clock on the final drive of the first half, and he threw four balls away out of bounds, plus one was batted at the line of scrimmage. I didn't count targets for any of those plays.

What stands out is the Kolb-to-Maclin connection. In the previous two weeks, Kolb had targeted Maclin 14 times, and those throws resulted in 13 completions for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Against the Titans, Kolb targeted Maclin 12 times, and those throws resulted in just five completions for 42 yards.

The good news is Kolb was looking for him. The bad news is the pair wasn't on the same page. Early on, Maclin slipped on an attempt that looked like it would have resulted in a first down. Kolb's interception in the second quarter was targeted to Maclin, but horribly underthrown. On another play in the second, Kolb did a good job to escape pressure and roll to his right, but he was off-target with a throw in Maclin's direction.

With 1:10 left in the first half, Kolb had Maclin open deep on what should have been a touchdown, but again, he underthrew him. And finally, in the fourth quarter, Maclin couldn't come up with a ball that was in his hands. It would have been a big gain, but he was unable to hold on. The play was far from routine, but one that he should make, so I gave him a drop. What can I say? I'm a harsh grader this week.

Kolb-to-Avant was efficient, as they connected for six completions and 60 yards on seven targets. Cooper came up big, not only with the great play on the 37-yard gain at the end of the first half, but also the touchdown and a third-down conversion in the third quarter.

Celek still has been unable to get things going. I'll take a closer look at his numbers later in the week.

The YAC were pretty much non-existent. The total is 90 yards, but 54 of those were to McCoy, who caught the ball near the line of scrimmage. The Eagles had only 28 yards after the catch on 15 completions to wide receivers.

Eight different players had at least one reception.

THE BLITZ, PRESSURE, SHOTGUN, ETC.

Kolb saw more blitzes than he'd seen in previous weeks. He dropped back 48 times and was blitzed on 12 of those occasions. On throws against the blitz, Kolb completed 6 of 11 attempts for 55 yards. He was also sacked once.

On two of those incompletions, Kolb made good reads but poor throws. It's worth noting that Kolb got better against the blitz as the game went along, which is a good sign. He started off 1-for-5 (plus the sack) the first six times he was blitzed. In the second half, Kolb was 5-for-6 against the blitz.

Kolb was sacked just once, but saw pretty consistent pressure. He did a good job escaping at times, but was off-target with his throws.

In the pocket, Kolb was 22-for-37 for 177 yards. Out of the pocket, he was just 3-for-7 for 17 yards.

Under center, Kolb was 9-for-15 for 66 yards. In the shotgun, he was 16-for-30 for 128 yards.

Note that the 37-yard completion to Cooper is not included in either of the above categories since Kolb lined up out wide on the trick play.

The previous two weeks, the Eagles' offense killed teams with play-action passes. Against the 49ers and Falcons, Kolb was 18-for-21 for 335 yards off play-action. Against the Titans, he was just 3-for-8 for 17 yards on those attempts.

THIRD DOWN, RED ZONE

As a team, the Eagles did well on third down, converting 10 of 18 opportunities. Kolb was 8-for-14 for 43 yards on third down. Crazy stat: Of the first nine times Kolb dropped back on third down, the Eagles came away with eight successful conversions. It wasn't just one guy, either. Kolb targeted seven different receivers on third down, and five of them had third-down catches.

After the hot start, however, it got ugly. The next six times Kolb dropped back on third down, the Eagles came away with just one successful conversion. 

The Eagles had four red-zone chances. The results were a touchdown, two field goals and a fumble. Kolb was actually pretty good in the red zone. He completed 5 of 8 throws for 30 yards. On the first red-zone possession, McCoy was dropped for 5 yards on second down after King Dunlap missed his block. That gave the Eagles a 3rd-and-goal from the 12 instead of the 7, and they had to settle for a field goal after a short completion.

On the second possession, Kolb made a nice read and throw to Cooper for the touchdown. The third possession resulted in a fumble, but Kolb made another nice throw to Cooper for 9 yards on 3rd-and-3 before the turnover. And Kolb couldn't connect with Maclin on the fourth red-zone possession on third down.

SUCCESS BY DISTANCE

Here's a chart of Kolb's throws by distance. I used the same ranges that Football Outsiders uses so we'd have a point of reference. Short is 5 yards or less. Mid is 6 to 15 yards. Deep is 16 to 25 yards. And Bomb is more than 25 yards. These are measured from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball is touched, hits the ground or goes out of bounds.

  Completions Attempts Yards
Short 18 21 113
Mid 4 7 32
Deep 3 7 49
Bomb 1 6 37

At first glance, it looks like Kolb threw a bunch of balls Short (21 of 41 attempts, 51.2 percent). But the previous week against the Falcons, 15 of his 29 attempts (51.7 percent) were in the Short range.

The difference is completions. Against the Titans, 18 of 26 completions were Short (69.2 percent).

Kolb took shots downfield, but couldn't connect. He was just 3-for-7 on throws between 16 and 25 yards. On throws of more than 25 yards, he was 1-for-6.

As a means of comparison, Kolb was 6-for-6 on Deep and Bomb throws (combined) last week. In the previous two games, he was 9-for-11 on those throws.

Kolb underthrew receivers multiple times. Even the 37-yard completion to Cooper (the only Bomb completion) was severely underthrown, but the Eagles' rookie made a great play on the ball.

OVERALL

The numbers show 22 incompletions, but it's a little more complicated when you break it down. Four balls were thrown away, and two were spikes. Maclin and Cooper each slipped on two other incompletions. And McCoy didn't turn around in time on one. In other words, of the 22 incompletions, there were nine that should not be classified as Kolb just missing a receiver.

That's not to say he played well, though. Kolb definitely missed his share of throws, and multiple attempts were off-target to receivers open downfield. Those could have been big plays, game-changing plays.

Maybe I'm not being harsh enough, but this is what I expected from him in his first season as a starter. A good game here, a bad game there. A great throw on one play, a horrible mistake on the next. Those are the general growing pains we're used to seeing from someone with his level of experience.

Now it's unclear when he'll next start a game for the Eagles. Michael Vick is back at the helm after the bye, and Kolb is back on the sidelines.

What I've seen out of Kolb through the first seven weeks certainly suggests he can be an effective starting quarterback in this league. At times, he's looked great throwing the deep ball. In other instances, he's looked shaky. I think he has the arm. It's just a matter of Kolb improving in that area with timing and accuracy.

I actually thought he showed improvement in terms of sensing pressure last week. He was only sacked once, and that number could have been higher. But Kolb needs to be more accurate on throws after he escapes the pocket.

I was concerned about his confidence after getting benched, but Kolb looks to be mentally tough. He'll now go back to playing the role of the good solider and cheering Vick on from the sidelines, not knowing when his next opportunity is coming.

54 comments
Comments  (54)
  • 0 like this / 1 don't   •   Posted 1:39 PM, 10/27/2010
    Not good. This sends the message that if Kolb had a great game Sunday he would have held the job. All QB's, especially developing ones will have some ups and downs and you can't fault him for this defense being just terrible. He's the future, Vick won't be here next year and we're not good enough to win now - so you season him. Andy has made some bad moves recently.....
    HighDrama
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:12 AM, 10/28/2010
    Eagles vs the Titans, was definitely the faults of the defense who fell apart the second half. Kolb did have a TD on that game, but only because Cooper was able to make a move on the under thrown ball. If Kolbs get back behind the line, maybe we need to improvise on his throwing ability. Short passes and let the WR do the work. That is how KOLB got the 80 yard TD vs the Falcons. It wasn't his arm that did the work. It was Maclin's feet. KOLB does have the talent to be a good QB because he does have good WR and RB. And maybe Vick is not the future next year but we have him here this year. You just going to have accept it, maybe finally be an Eagles fan, not just a Kolb or Vick fan and cheer for the Team.
    gauwow
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:37 PM, 10/27/2010
    Kolb just needs reps. Reid should be hit with coaching malpractice for not getting them for him. One thing that gets me, Tennessee looks like a good team. They are 5-2 and first place in their conference. Only one Reid coached team in almost 12 years now, has beaten an eventual AFC playoff team only one time and that was a 15-6 defensive struggle. The QBing has always been pretty shabby- Baltimore 2008 anyone? The point is that for more than a decade, the Eagles can't compete with AFC playoff teams across the board. So with Kolb at the helm they have a 4th quarter 19-10 lead against a likely AFC playoff team. That's leading a team, the Eagles, that only beat one team with a winning record in its last 24 games. Not too bad. I'm glad we will get to see what Vick can do against "not the Jags or Lions".
    jtj06
  • 1 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:55 PM, 10/27/2010
    What were not mentioned in the article were the 3-4 in-completions that should count as drops against the Titan defenders. Also the section breaking down the 4 three and out series following scoring drives by the Titans seems to have been left on the editors floor. When Kolb plays well he is showered with praise and compared to greats, lets be just as critical when he plays poorly. Was Kolb the sole reason we lost on Sunday, NO, but he was one of the primary reasons. And all the mentions of a developing QB really need to stop already. Kolb has been in the league 4 years now. Yes he is still settling into a prominent role in the offense, but he should not be evaluated in the same light as a rookie or second year QB. When a player is given the benefit of sitting and learning (while being paid) for three years, they accept that knowing expectations for them will be greater once they take over. You don't give a guy who sat for 3 years, 3 more years of playing before you evaluate his play. Tony Romo isn’t still in his evaluation period, 2008 Matt Schaub wasn’t still developing, neither is Matt Cassell. Kolb needs to be ready now to play and win…no excuses. The Eagles didn't trade McNabb to develop Kolb they traded him because they said Kolb was ready.
    datbo215
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:07 PM, 10/28/2010
    Co-sign datbo215
    EZG1
  • 1 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:58 PM, 10/27/2010
    I would not be surprised if BABYARM is outta here at the end of the season.
    BooDuhBud
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:46 PM, 10/27/2010
    Sheil - you are a big fan of Kolb, which is fine, but don't let that ruin your articles. Like datbo215 states, you forget to mention all the near INTs the guy threw on Sunday. Those underthrown balls, were absolutely horrible. You have two WRs, Maclin and Jackson, who's strengths are to spread the field vertically, how can we have QB who's weakness is arm strength? I see that as a huge problem. Vick is only 30 years old, less two years of non wear and tear on his body while incarcerated. Sign the guy who best fits your system, which despite what people think, is barely a WCO.
    EaglesBleedMoney
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:01 PM, 10/27/2010
    HighDrama -- if vick plays good, he'll certainly be back next year. why do you think he is starting? its to see if he is worth signing long term. the eagles have a plan. and yeah sheil, how about the all the dropped picks? you have to factor those in evaluating his performance.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:32 PM, 10/27/2010
    thought the article was very fair. First year - plenty of other first year QB are WAY worse - see Minnesota, Washington, Oakland, Arizona...Kolb is way ahead of schedule.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:38 PM, 10/27/2010
    @ Phil MeNuggets
    I really don't think Vick is going to be around next year. There is no conspiracy going on here, I truly believe Vick is playing better than anyone expected, that coupled with the fact that the O-line sucks is why he's starting. AR is trying to spare Kolb from getting killed (or in AR's words "massacred")by playing behind a truly battered o-line. Good example was on the fumble at the 5 yd line when McGlynn went the wrong way and the DT came free, if that were a pass play Kolb would have concussion #2 whereas Vick might be able to run away from those hits.
    HuskerEagleFan
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:16 PM, 10/27/2010
    Phil and Highdrama/Husker make good opposing points. Problem is that if we are going to only let Kolb play under the best conditions he really isn't developing, he's being shielded from the reality of the NFL. I'm also a little tired of hearing about the "young, developing QB" too. This is his 4th year. Enough with the developing, produce already. This guys learning curve is longer than turn 4 at Daytona. There is also the point about the relative strengths possessed by KK as opposed to the strengths of the WRs. KK simply does NOT match up well with the WRs. His relatively weak arm was dramatically exposed on Sunday. How many under thrown, off taget passes do you have to see to believe that? DJax and Maclin are burners and KK has a popgun arm. He can not take advantage of the best assets the team has and no amount of practice will change that. Vick is the better fit as the team is constituted right now. If he continues to play well, KK will man the bench or be traded. There is no other option. This isn't meant to provoke an argument, it's just my opinion.
    tpizza
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:23 PM, 10/27/2010
    I just want to know how much time Kolb needs to prove himself, datbo215, hit the nail right on the head, Kolb should be ready. I see some of these rookies just coming out of college looking better than Kolb. Make all the excuses for Kolb you want, but reality is either Kolb has or he doesn't, and so far it really looks like he doesn't.
    charmaine
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:27 PM, 10/27/2010
    I think we should trade for Cutler. Who cares if he throws 3-4 picks/week. He has the golden arm and that's what really counts.
    tommy_the_k
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:32 PM, 10/27/2010
    Rookie qbs looking better than Kolb? How many rookie quarterbacks won offensive player of the week this year? I don't actually know. Maybe some have. Whatever the case, let's bring on Vick and see what the rest of the season brings. It should be interesting.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:34 PM, 10/27/2010
    datbo, I posted before I read your comment. Didn't mean to echo your thoughts but at least we agree, no more learning. Time to play well and win or step aside.
    tpizza


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