What Vegas thinks of Kolb
What does Vegas expect out of Kevin Kolb in his first full season as a starter? The over/under numbers might surprise you.
What Vegas thinks of Kolb
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
I received an e-mail from the people over at Bodog.com with a bunch of wagering information for the 2010 Eagles.
I'll get to a bunch of it on Wednesday, but the numbers I found most interesting were their over/unders for Kevin Kolb.
Let's start with touchdown throws. They have set the over/under at 19.5.
I definitely expected that number to be higher, given the talent Kolb has around him. Consider that last year, 18 quarterbacks threw for 20 touchdowns or more. In the 11 seasons that Andy Reid has coached the Eagles, the team has failed to go over 19.5 passing touchdowns just twice. It happened in 1999 when Doug Pederson started nine games and Donovan McNabb was a rookie. The other time was 2003 when McNabb threw just 16 touchdowns and the team's leading wide receiver was James Thrash.
Football Outsiders also does player projections in its almanac, which I've referenced here several times. They've got Kolb throwing for 24 touchdowns.
I'm not one to question Vegas, but that 19.5 number seems low to me. I like the over a lot.
On the flip side, Bodog sets the over/under for Kolb interceptions at 14.5. That one is on par with Football Outsiders, which projects 14 picks for Kolb in his first season as a starter. Only 10 quarterbacks threw 15 or more INTs last season. McNabb never threw more than 13 interceptions in a season, but indications so far are that Kolb will throw into traffic a little more, which can be both a good thing and a bad thing.
Bodog sets the over/under on completion percentage for Kolb at 60 percent. This is one of the more difficult ones to project, given Kolb's small sample size. In two starts last season, though, he completed 62 of 96 throws (64.6 percent). For his career, Kolb has completed 60.8 percent of his attempts. Football Outsiders has him projected for 62.6 percent. I would go with the over on this one.
And finally, total passing yards. Bodog sets the over/under at 3,500. Last year was unique in that 10 NFL quarterbacks threw for 4,000 yards or more. Seventeen quarterbacks, including McNabb (3,553) threw for over 3,500 yards in 2009.
Football Outsiders has Kolb down for 3,968 yards. 3,500 total passing yards would mean Kolb throwing for just about 219 yards per game (assuming he stays healthy the whole season and plays 16 games). I would think he could average more than that, but I don't like this one as much as the over on touchdowns and completion percentage.
Earlier today, I posted on Eagles drafting over the past five seasons, as it relates to their current roster.
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Vegas knows Kolb is a stiff, it's only a matter of time before everyone in Philadelphia knows it too...— brmorgen81- With that offensive line, FF Andy Reid's refusal to run a more balanced attack, Kolb's lack of "escapability", as well as his penchant for throwing into coverage when faced with pressure, Kolb will throw closer to 20 picks this year. And before you 5-hating Kolb apologists start with me, just watch and learn. THEN you can comment.— 5NOT4
- Alright, I did a double-take. The over/under for Kolb INTs is in fact 14.5! I'm about to lay 5 Large on that, win me some easy money!— 5NOT4
Comment removed.- The odds are pretty good that Vegas knows what they are talking about. How'd they rate McNabb?— MikeP
- Vegas thinks Kolb is very accurate, they have the over/under at 60%..Kolb will throw for more touchdowns and more yards than McNabb will throw this season..book it.— Bill20
- Vegas says McNabb will have 15 TDs with the Redskins' receivers.— MikeP
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Bill20 is correct. If McNabb can't out TD KK with that offensive dynamo he has in DC it'll be a joke. Yes, I did type that with a straight face.— tpizza
Mark my words: Kolb will out play every quaterback in the east because the Eagles have the best offensive line in the east and the best receivers and defense. Kolb will get 25-32 touchdowns this year and throw for over 4,000 yards. Kolb is going to be better than rodgers.— briandawkins20- Comment removed.
bill20 is a loser- Well put Phil. On point as usual.— tpizza
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