The Eagles' draft trade chips
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The Eagles' draft trade chips
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
On Monday, I wrote about the possibility of the Eagles moving up in the first round.
As I mentioned, don't rule anything out. Andy Reid, Howie Roseman and company will see how things play out and could trade up, trade back or stay put at No. 23. All three options will be in play.
With that being said, I wanted to take a look at what the Eagles would have to give up to make a move in the first round, and also what they could gain by trading out of it.
By now, you probably are aware of the draft trade chart, a tool that assigns different point values to different picks. For example, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points. Theoretically, to trade for the first pick, a team would have to provide value around 3,000 points.
Looking at the chart, that could be the 16th pick in the first round, the eighth pick in the second round, the fourth pick in the third round and perhaps two picks early in the fourth round. A pretty steep price.
No one knows how closely teams use the chart, and it probably varies franchise-to-franchise, but as recently as last week, Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome said it plays a role in his decisions.
I took a look at last year's draft. The Eagles made four trades in the first three rounds:
Trade 1: Eagles traded the 24th pick, the 70th pick and the 87th pick for the 13th pick.
Trade 2: Eagles traded the 55th pick for the 59th pick and the 125th pick.
Trade 3: Eagles traded the 59th pick for the 71st pick, the 134th pick and the 146th pick.
Trade 4: Eagles traded the 71st pick for the 86th pick and the 122nd pick.
Here's a look at how the deals matched up, using the draft trade chart:
| Eagles gave up | Eagles got back | Pct. Difference | |
| Trade 1 | 1,135 | 1,150 | 1.3% |
| Trade 2 | 350 | 357 | 2.0% |
| Trade 3 | 310 | 307 | 1.0% |
| Trade 4 | 235 | 210 | 10.6% |
As you can see, the first three trades matched up within a couple percentage points of each other. But there was more of a disparity in the fourth trade.
Keep in mind that a lot depends on what picks the teams have to deal. In many cases, it's just not possible to get the numbers to match up as closely.
Moving on to this year, what would the Eagles have to give up to move up in the first round? Well, here are the picks they have to work with:
* 1st round (No. 23 overall)
* 2nd round (No. 54 overall)
* 3rd round (No. 85 overall)
* 4th round (104th overall)
* 4th round (120th overall)
* 5th round (149th overall)
* 5th round (153rd overall)
* 7th round (227th overall)
* 7th round (237th overall)
* 7th round (240th overall)
When ESPN's Adam Schefter Tweeted yesterday that the Eagles and the Patriots are two teams open to moving up, he also mentioned several teams that would like to trade down: the 49ers (No. 7), Cowboys (No. 9), Redskins (No. 10), Lions (No. 13) and Seahawks (No. 25).
For the purpose of this example, let's say that one of the players the Eagles covet falls and is available when the Lions are on the clock at No. 13. What would the Eagles have to give up to make a deal?
Well, the No. 13 pick is valued at 1,150 points, and the No. 23 pick is valued at 760. So the Eagles would have to make up about 390 points. Their 2nd-round pick (No. 54overall) is worth 360 and their 5th-round pick (No. 153 overall) is worth 30.2.
In other words, to switch spots with the Lions at No. 13, the Eagles could theoretically offer up their second-round pick and one of their two fifth-round picks.
What about trading out of the first round? Let's say the Birds identify a player who they think will be available early in the second round, and their old pal Tom Heckert, who holds the fifth pick in the second round (No. 37), wants to trade back into the first round at No. 23.
The difference between the two picks is 230. Cleveland owns the sixth pick in the third round, which is worth 240. So if the Eagles were to move down 14 spots (out of the first round), they could potentially pick up an early third-round pick.
After the draft, I'll take a look at how the values match up, but this gives you some idea of what the Eagles would have to give up, or what they'd be able to acquire, by trading out of the No. 23 spot.
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"As I mentioned, don't rule anything out. Andy Reid, Howie Roseman and company will see how things play out and could trade up, trade back or stay put at No. 23. All three options will be in play."
What thrilling insight you've provided here.
— mikegdj- So true, mike. It's all fodder at this point. No creative juices left to flow. — wordsword
- Lame potshot, Mike. I think we all got his point: unlike last year, when everyone expected the Eagles to move up (albeit for Earl Thomas, not BG) there's no general consensus what Andy & co. will do this year. — GhostOfJeromeBrown99
- In Andy we don't trust— shawnmac
- Ah, why wouldn't the eagles just trade kolb now?— daner92
- I liked this article. Good way to explain the chart and what it means in terms of options the Eagles might have. I don't expect anyone to be able to predict what the Eagles are going to do. Anything anyone predicts at this point is just a guess and I can do that for myself.— Elbarad
- Choose well Eagles. I don't care where they are drafted.— Rick Wise Guy
- I was discouraged last year after the Eagles took Graham and Allen. It seemed like they kept trading back rather than taking a player. I predict this year they will end up with all 32 7th round picks.— igle_fan_99
- "Andy Reid, Howie Roseman and company will see how things play out and could trade up, trade back or stay put at No. 23."
It's insights like this that keep me coming back.
— smfree31 - I always dread the draft because the Eagles always do something wierd.— 4thand10
- How about just staying put. It seems to work O.K. for the Steelers.— Klambake
- What are the value of next years picks to move up in the first round? How far up can we get with our 2012 first round pick?— borderline stiff
- How about trading this years 1st round pick and next years 1st round pick since even if they cant trade Kolb before or during the draft for a pick this year they will trade him for at least a 1st round pick next year so they will in fact have an extra 1st round pick regardless. 2 1st round picks should have increased trade value.— MrSmithTP
- Don't trade the 1st, 2nd and 5th to move up 10 spots in the first.— P Even
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