Turnovers, Kolb and the Eagles' D
The Eagles had a +15 turnover differential in 2009, second-best in the league. Can the defense produce the same amount of takeaways, and how will the overall number change with Kevin Kolb running the show?
Turnovers, Kolb and the Eagles' D
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Ten teams had a turnover differential of +6 or better in 2009.
Seven of those teams made the playoffs. Four teams had a turnover differential of +10 or better. All four made the postseason.
And the Eagles were one of those teams. The Birds' +15 turnover differential trailed only the Packers (+24). The Eagles were fourth in the league with 25 interceptions and third with 38 takeaways.
Offensively, the Birds turned it over 23 times, tied for seventh-fewest in the league.
Here's a chart of the Eagles' giveaway/takeaway numbers, along with league rank, over the past five seasons. Note that giveaway rank is in terms of fewest turnovers.
| Takeaways | Rank | Giveaways | Rank | Diff. | Rank | |
| 2009 | 38 | 3rd | 23 | T-7th | +15 | 2nd |
| 2008 | 29 | T-9th | 26 | T-16th | +3 | 14th |
| 2007 | 19 | 32nd | 27 | T-13th | -8 | 25th |
| 2006 | 28 | T-12th | 23 | T-9th | +5 | T-9th |
| 2005 | 26 | T-15th | 28 | T-21st | -2 | 18th |
| Avg. | 28 | 25.4 |
What do the numbers say? That the Eagles had a historically impressive year in terms of giveaways/takeaways in 2009.
Consider this: I had to go back 20 years to the 1989 season to find a year when the Eagles had a turnover differential better than +15. That year, the Eagles' defense produced a ridiculous 56 turnovers for a differential of +24.
Only three times in the past 20 years did the Eagles' defense create more turnovers than 2009. In 1999, Andy Reid's first season with the Eagles (which resulted in a 5-11 record), the Birds created 46 turnovers for a +7 differential. In 1991, the defense created 48 turnovers for a +5 differential.
And in 1995 and 2002, the Eagles' defense tied last year's mark of 38 takeaways.
Offensively, it's logical to predict the Eagles will have more turnovers in 2010. The question is: How many more? Donovan McNabb had a historically low interception percentage during his career here, throwing just one pick every 47.46 passes.
Kevin Kolb is entering his first season as a starter and will endure some growing pains. It's unfair to suggest any trends based on his limited game action, but if you want the numbers, Kolb's thrown seven interceptions in 130 attempts, or one pick every 18.57 attempts.
The 2010 Football Outsiders Almanac predicts 14 interceptions for Kolb, a number higher than McNabb produced in any of his 11 seasons, but one that the Eagles could certainly live with.
As a point of reference, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw 13 picks in his first full season as a starter. Last year, he cut that number down to just seven.
In terms of fumbles, that's a part of Kolb's game we don't know too much about. Will he show good awareness when pressured in the pocket? Will he have a good sense of when to protect the football? Will he be willing to take a sack, or will he always try to escape and make a play? We'll get some answers this year, but those are areas that are likely to improve as a quarterback matures and gains more experience.
In the running game, I've never been crazy with the way LeSean McCoy carries the football. Those who joined me in the chats last year know I always thought he was in danger of being stripped by opposing defenders. McCoy fumbled twice as a rookie, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him focus on holding the ball differently at training camp.
Speaking of which, rookies and selected veterans report to Lehigh a week from today. And the first practice is a week from tomorrow.
It's about that time, my friends.
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Kevin's style of play is very similar to drew brees his quick release and accuracy also his leadership on the field is a breath of fresh air..2012-SB....wolf.— wolf 4- Seven interceptions in 2 games? I didn't realize it was that bad. I don't think it's wide to compare him with Aaron Rogers with those kind of turnover numbers. He's got a good schedule stuffed with a few cupcakes in the early season. If he can't make it past them, we're looking at 6-10.— dapmman
- Hey guys remember that Kolb might have 7 interceptions BUT 3 or 4 were thrown in the game vs Baltimore in 2008 when McNabb was benched. The Ravens had a top rated D that year and they were playing from behind. On top of that Kolb was a lot younger then. I think with as many weapons we have and as long as the O-line holds up we should not have to worry about our offense. Lets worry about the secondary.— Thephiladelphiaconnection
- unbelievable, Kolb is listed as 6-3 and McNabb is listed as 6-2. So by your logic, McNabb is also not big enough to play in the NFL. Neither are Drew Brees, Brett Farve, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and a bunch of others.— pete317
- 7-9, tough schedule and rookie QB that had a stellar collegiate career at Houston— bobf876
- McNabb...hurt a lot...throws up...cant run...voted for OBAMA.....now he works close to the man he help put in office.....Kolb DO YOU JOB BABY!!!— joebill
- Unbelieveable! Kolb is 6'3". One inch taller than McGoofball.— Klambake
- Shel, tell us how much time he will have to throw, and we'll give you a number. Also, if Nick Cole is at center for 4-6 games, that's gonna add a few more too.— jimmyj
- 6-10— HUSS
davetheherman, you have Garcia-like issues...— bboybeballin
Comment removed.- Kolb is an inch taller than NcNabb and weighs 15lbs less. Mcnabb is a freak at 245. Kolb has plenty of size, plenty of arm and is far and way smarter and more accurate. That being said he does lack gametime experience, but has more than just a rookie, like Sanchez. Similar arm strength, but Kolb will be quick to learn the intricacies of reading defenses. That is what NcNabb lacked. The willingness to spend the time, learning what he was facing that game week. Look at the tape of the Raider game. If Mcnabb could read defenses he would have had three touchdown passes that game. I still think he was hurt during the Raiders game and may have been doped up. Kolb should have started against the Raiders and the Bucs last year while McNabb healed. The team would have been better off and we would have received more on the Mcnabb trade.— piercit
- All Kolb did so far was light up college and set an NFL record in his 1st 2 starts as a pro. Why does everyone assume he'll suck? You people are clueless.— hititwheretheyaint
- Get a reading on our new starting QB. Fix the O-Line. See how many more front seven people are needed on "D". Fix the O-Line. Do we still need more Safety help. Fix the O-Line. Find a reliable #2 QB, so we can get rid of Vick. Fix the O-Line. See if whatshisface can stay healthy enough to be the second tight end. If Andy can accomplish these things this season, maybe we can be decent again in '11. And, oh yeah: FIX THE DAMN O-LINE!!!— TBear
- the turnover numbers mean nothing if u can't do it when it counts like in the playoffs...how many did they have against the cowgirls in the playoffs last season?? and in the 4 NFCC losses & Super Bowl only 2.....when the stakes get higher andy's smallish Defense get exposed....— the tru 1
- I'd take a Pitbull killer as my leader of a Piggy killer any day of the week.— BooDuhBud
- Comment removed.
- SkipinWV, I've seen enough of your posts to know that I would bet my millions that McNabb would defeat you in any contest that measures brain power.— MG44
- They were 3rd in the league in takeaways last year - can they be better this year? They could be. They may miss Brown, but the other changes on D should all be improvements.— Warhound
- Old McScrub held the bsll too long and threw womburners to avoid the int. He couldn't read the look-offs so the scrub did not know what to do, McDumb's wonderlick Score???? = 14, Kolb's Score??? 28, McDumb had the lowest score in over a decade next to two other stooges that are not in Football. We will do just fine who cares if he has 14 picks when he throws 30 TD"s !! Not that's What I'm Talkin bout!!!— SkipinWV
- *[that's] the correct phrasing...— bboybeballin
- uh dave, the more you write, the less sense you make. your exact quote is "Garcia-like youth", as in 'Garcia-like' is an adjective for youth. huh? what you meant to write is "a youthful Garcia-like...", that the correct phrasing...not to insult your intelligence. you're obviously so much more intelligent than the average Eagles fan...— bboybeballin
- Comment removed.
- Garcia is done stop living in the past, but you will want to head fast to the future after this season they may get 5 wins— douglasrdd
- Comment removed.
- or your lack of punctuation shows how intelligent you are...no one said anything about McNabb there tough guy, relax.— EaglesBleedMoney
- I have never seen a tap dancer holding a football. Sounds interesting.— phillyinsd
- Damn Dave, dig that wedgie out!— taycom
- It's gonna be a long year folks, but next year might be better! Go Eagles 2011!— taycom
- Comment removed.
kolbs game makes me nervous.- bboybeballin (sweet name by the way)- thank you for your "Webster-like" definition, ya know, as opposed to "non Webster-like" definition. I didn't know 40+ year old QBs was a youth movement...— EaglesBleedMoney
- If turnovers include batted balls at the line of scrimmage I believe our number in 2010 will be -25. Kolb just isn't big enough to play QB in the pros.— unbelieveable!
- Korn Kolb will do just fine!— Marchmadness
- ya know, "Garcia-like youth", as opposed to 'non Garcia-like youth'...— bboybeballin
- "Garcia-like youth" ummmmmm what?— EaglesBleedMoney
- Comment removed.
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