The Eagles' chances as a 3-seed
How has the 3-seed done historically in the playoffs? Here's a look at what the Eagles are up against.
The Eagles' chances as a 3-seed
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
I decided to take a look today to see how the three-seed has historically performed in the playoffs.
The Birds, of course, are locked into that seed and might have cost themselves a shot at the one- or two-seed with their loss to the Vikings on Tuesday night.
So here's a breakdown of which seed from each conference has made the Super Bowl the last 10 years:
| Seed of NFC champ | Seed of AFC champ | |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | 4 | 2 |
| 2007 | 5 | 1 |
| 2006 | 1 | 3 |
| 2005 | 1 | 6 |
| 2004 | 1 | 2 |
| 2003 | 3 | 1 |
| 2002 | 2 | 1 |
| 2001 | 1 | 2 |
| 2000 | 1 | 4 |
What stands out here other than a bunch of random numbers?
In four of the last five seasons, and six of the last 10, a three-seed or lower has reached the Super Bowl. In two of the last three seasons, the NFC champ has not been a team that had a first-round bye.
Only four times in the past 10 seasons have BOTH Super Bowl participants had byes in the first round. Of course, last year was the exception as both top seeds (the Saints and the Colts) got there.
Here's a quick look at the Super Bowl participants, broken down by seed, in the last 10 years:
| Seed | SB appearances | Pct. |
| 1-seed | 10 | 50% |
| 2-seed | 4 | 20% |
| 3-seed | 2 | 10% |
| 4-seed | 2 | 10% |
| 5-seed | 1 | 5% |
| 6-seed | 1 | 5% |
Two three-seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl in the last 10 seasons. The Colts won the Super Bowl as a three-seed in 2006. They finished 12-4, but finished behind the Chargers (14-2) and Ravens (13-3) in the AFC playoff picture. Indianapolis beat Kansas City, 28-3, in the first round. The Colts traveled to Baltimore and took out the Ravens, 15-6, in the divisional round. And they won a shootout in the NFC championship, beating the Patriots, 38-34.
The other three-seed that got to the Super Bowl (and you're not going to like this) was the Carolina Panthers in 2003. They took out Dallas, 29-10, at home in the wild-card round and then beat the Rams, 29-23, in St. Louis. The Panthers of course then came to the Linc and beat the Eagles, 14-3, before falling to the Patriots, 32-29, in the Super Bowl.
Here's how the three seeds have finished in the last 10 years:
| Finish | No. of times | Pct. |
| 1st-round loss | 8 | 40% |
| 2nd-round loss | 7 | 35% |
| Conf. championship loss | 3 | 15% |
| Super Bowl loss | 1 | 5% |
| Super Bowl champ | 1 | 5% |
Overall, the one-seeds clearly have an advantage, and that makes sense. They are the teams that prove themselves as the best in each conference over the course of the 16-week schedule. In 9 of the past 10 seasons, at least one No. 1 seed has reached the Super Bowl. And one-seeds make up 50 percent of the Super Bowl participants in the last 10 years.
The numbers are fun to look at, but each year is different. In 2005, the Steelers were the six-seed and won on the road at Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver before beating the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
For what it's worth, Vegas hasn't soured much on the Eagles. The Birds' odds of winning the Super Bowl are 8/1, according to Bodog. Only the Patriots (9/4), Falcons (13/2) and Steelers (7/1) have better odds.
If you missed it earlier this week, I broke down the Eagles' playoff scenarios.
And on Thursday morning, I posted Man Up on the offense.
Stats don't mean a thing here! Just think... on any given day a lower seed can beat a higher seed.— kalina
The fact that they are IN the mix is a large present for the fans, straight from Andy's decision to use V-7 as the starter. Smartest move he's made since.....? The ONLY group of players we have that is above the NFL average is our skill players. But without some help, we WILL lose to either Green bay or the damn Giants.(We got lucky twice...not the third time.)The "D" has stepped up on an occasion or two, but right now the whole defensive side of the ball is several notches below NFL-average. And VERY unfortunately, three of our five O-Linemen are that also. The Vikings D-Coordinator figured that out, and just blew our right side into oblivion. If Dallas does the same we'll be looking at a 30 point loss. But the BiG one comes next week against the above named teams. Whichever one it is, is going to shoot down our Magic Carpet Ride this year. Hope to high heavens that the off-season gets us the vital help we need on the O-Line. With V-7, that might be enough to get us back into the upper part of the league. I do NOT expect enough defensive help to allow us to NOT get help on the O-line. We gotta fix one or the other with our first two picks, and that kind of help could go a long way....Imagine Vick being able to actually set up and have a second to make a decision!....Rather than running for his freaking life on every damn snap! Come ON Andy...get some help over there for the guy!— TBear
Packers are the most dangerous team in the NFC right now. At least if we get them in Round 1 it's at home. Otherwise, only New Orleans is as good as the Eagles on O and Saints and Birds are both mediocre on D, so it's a tossup.— jpk- This is the worst Eagle defense since 1985......yes, 25 years. Yet were 10-5 with a #3 seed locked up. Every single football sense tells me we have NO SHOT to do anything in the playoffs with this defense. BUT, its obvious every single team has fatal flaws and when you have a player like Vick that at times is truly unstoppable....u have a shot....so we shall see— fpuglisi3910
- 1 man team with a truly LOUSY DEFENSE? They got no shot!— Bubba4
- I can predict right now if mcdermott coaches the defense the eagles will be like the rest of us.watching the playoffs from the couch!— Geno D
- On any given Sunday, Monday, Thursday or Tuesday any team can win. Having said that it usually is a sound defense that puts you in the position to go all the way to the Super Bowl. There really isn't a great defense this year in the NFL so maybe this will be the year of the offense.— mindstorms
- Looking at the past the #3 see in the NFC in even years has always played on Sunday. Bet on it the Birds will host the Pack late game next Sunday unless the AFC #3 seed is West Coast based ,which it ain't(Indy or KC). Eagles Pack will be a ratings winner so mark it down 4:40 next Sunday kickoff at the Linc. If the Birds get past GB they will play the next Sat at Chic....— glove69
- Jim Johnson is turning over in his grave watching this defense. Truly pathetic. A 17-10 win would look really good right now. I'd take it over 38-31 anyday.— SteveS11
The defense isn't playing so hot right now and is banged up to boot. Even with his occasional rookie mistakes Nate Allen lent some playmaking ability and stability to the secondary. I am hopeful but realistic.- The Pack , Chicago, Tampa could all beat the Eagles. The Giants could not. The D is the horror and that is a shame for a team which once prided itself on a solid D. My guess is they lose the Dallas game as well as the PO game but I will be greatly pleased if neither thing happens and we actually go on to a 2nd PO game where all things are possible.— Koons
Comment removed.
wow, um ok so according to the stat put up right there a 3 seed has a 75% chance of NOT EVEN WINNING more then 2 games. 90 % chance they DO NOT EVEN WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. if you are slow that means 10% chance to make a SB, only 5% chance to win it. add in Reids horrible playcalling and your odds of winning a supberbowl go down to ZERO. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. EVER. until he is relieved of the playcalling duties or fired completely. NEVER- The Eagles blew a chance at a number #2 seed last year by losing to Dallas the last game of the regular season, and then promptly lost the Wild Card game to the Cowboys in Dallas; this year they again lost a chance at the #2 seed by losing a winnable game against the Vikings. They never learn-never change, and history will repeat; count the Eagles as one and done in the Wild Card round, regardless of the opponent-albeit probably the Packers. They simply aren't good enough; too many holes; and very poorly coached by Andy Reid who has never won, and isn't about to start now! Sorry, but back to the drawing board!— bust6711
- The Eagles blew a chance at a number #2 seed last year by losing to Dallas the last game of the regular season, and then promptly lost the Wild Card game to the Cowboys in Dallas; this year they again lost a chance at the #2 seed by losing a winnable game against the Vikings. They never learn-never change, and history will repeat; count the Eagles as one and done in the Wild Card round, regardless of the opponent-albeit probably the Packers. They simply aren't good enough; too many holes; and very poorly coached by Andy Reid who has never won, and isn't about to start now! Sorry, but back to the drawing board!— bust6711
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