The Eagles' injury luck
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The Eagles' injury luck
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
There were quite a few factors that contributed to the Eagles' disappointing 8-8 record in 2011.
But injuries, comparatively speaking, were not one of them.
Danny Tuccitto of Football Outsiders recently wrote an article about Adjusted Games Lost (AGL), a metric the site uses to measure which teams were most and least affected by injuries.
Here's a primer on what exactly the stat measures:
To refresh memories, the key ideas underlying AGL are that all players don't affect winning and losing equally, and missing a game isn't the only way a player injury affects winning and losing. Injuries to starters, important situational reserves (e.g., nickel cornerbacks), and injury replacements (i.e., new permanent starters) count towards AGL, whereas injuries to benchwarmers don't. Similarly, injuries that land a player on injured reserve affect AGL more than injuries that force a player to be listed as "questionable," which in turn affect AGL more than injuries that lead to a "probable" game status.
According to the numbers, the Eagles had the second-lowest AGL number in the league, meaning only the Ravens were hurt less by injuries last season. That was quite a contrast from 2010, when the Eagles ranked 27th, meaning only five teams were hurt more by injuries.
Here's Tuccitto's writeup on the Eagles' injury luck last season:
Despite having 48.2 fewer AGL than they did in 2010, ranking 25 spots higher in team health, the Eagles lost two more games, and missed the playoffs. It's true that Michael Vick had an assortment of injuries in 2011, but it turned out that he only contributed 0.2 AGL more last season than he did in 2010 (mostly because of differences in game status). Elsewhere, Philadelphia's offensive line AGL dropped by a full season's worth of games in 2011, as did their total AGL on defense. Taking their lack of injuries into account, calling the Eagles a disappointment last season might be understating it.
The note about the offensive line is a good one. By my count, the Eagles' starting offensive line only missed a total of three games due to injury last season - two by Jason Peters and one by Evan Mathis. Jason Kelce and Todd Herremans each started all 16 games. And the Eagles' right guard position (manned by Kyle DeVan and then Danny Watkins) was not hurt by injuries at all.
As we know, Peters is likely out for the season already in 2012.
Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, Vick missed three games completely, couldn't finish two more and was ineffective at least partly because of injury in a sixth game. DeSean Jackson started 15 of 16 games, and the only one he missed was for violating team rules, not because of injury. Jeremy Maclin missed three games, LeSean McCoy missed one, and Brent Celek toughed his way to 16 starts.
Defensively, the Eagles stayed pretty healthy too. Antonio Dixon, a rotational defensive tackle, missed 12 games, but Derek Landri played well in his place. The starting defensive line - Trent Cole, Mike Patterson, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin - missed a total of three games.
Brandon Graham played in just three games, and Darryl Tapp missed four, but again, those were rotational players.
Question for the group: Which players can the Eagles least afford to lose to injury in 2012?
Given the way the roster is currently constructed, offensively, I'd say McCoy and Vick are at the top of the list. The defense is more difficult. Even though he didn't play great last season, I might have to go with Nnamdi Asomugha. The Eagles have question marks behind him at cornerback, and despite his struggles, quarterbacks often stayed away from Asomugha last season.
Trent Cole is the defense's best overall player, and would be missed, but at least the team has some depth at defensive end behind him.
Your thoughts?
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And as custom for the Eagles one or 2 more starters will be lost for the season even before the season starts!— slade1955- Wrong, Herremans was moved to Tackle because of an injury. Allen and Chaney were playing to soon after off season surgery. Macklin had an illness that clearly impacted him early. Dixon missed the season, too. It isn't quite as cut and dried as you make it sound.— Paul SoTX
- I would add Demeco Ryans. If he gets hurt, we are right back to where we were last year. Our rookie LB's might help some, but you can't count on that. Remember when Bradley got hurt at the beginning of the season?— Uncle Carm
- Terrible Drafts in 2010 (Graham)and 2011 (Watkins), a horrendous and baffling hire at DC and a stubborn Head Coach leading the way doomed this team last year. The popular excuse was that they didn't have any OTA's and a limited Pre-season. If that's the case, then please explain the success of the 49er's, who were in the same prediciment but also had to deal with an entirely new Coaching Staff! Later Arrogant Andy said the dissapointing season was mostly because the Team was in a rebuilding year. A bad excuse given this Dope's "ALL IN" Comment before the Season started. Suck it up Coach, you were the #1 reason for the 8 and 8 record! Accountability doesn't seem to exist on this Team!— younged
- Younger. Considering your posts, when you get to be "olded", maybe you'll acquire a better understanding of things.— BrianM8614
- All this tells me the AGL is not a reliable determinant of how injuries affect wins/loses!— NCTony
A.G.L doesn't factor in the musical chairs of the O'Line. The O'Line wasn't settled on until very late in the season.... As for the HATE Andy and Howie groupies. Several teams experienced Scheme and Coaching changes however compared to the 49'ers the core of their team remained intact... the majority of the 49'ers players were in their second and third year... those players had the benefit of playing with each other in previous seasons and as a group were more effective executing in the shortened off-season with less of a learning curve than the numerous... New additions and first year, first time players and Coaches in the Eagles system... I really don't expect y'all HATE club members to understand. How soon y'all have forgotten what we had here before Andy and Laurie or how really terrific this Eagles organization truly are... the rest of the league and their fans know how good we have it here. So Please... Keep Hate Alive hahahahhaha. "Eagles Baby".- It's certainly the case that the Igs weren't as beat up as some other clubs last year -- I'm guessing that the Giants had more AGLs in 2011, and certainly the Packers did in 2010 -- but I agree with some other posters that there are other variables to consider. New coordinators/coaches getting acclimated with new players who may not be great fits, combined with the elimination of OTAs/minicamps definitely hurt teams like this one that were most active in free agency. This isn't an excuse for their bad early-season record, but an explanation for it. Now Peters is down for 2012, the first and only season-ender we'll see, one hopes. We'll also see how Bell serves in his stead. Great thing about the NFL, you don't have to wait too long for the other shoe to drop.
— JBirks 
Great way to jinx this season.— verve- dont forget not having a d-coordinator. that kinda killed the season too.— psualum
- The reason we didn't have an injury is because we didn't have one of Reid's classic 911 camps. I find it so ironic how one of the most out of shape men speaks about players needing to come into camp in shape when he is so out of it. Well, I guess round is a shape
- Yourdaaddy, cmon man. Since when does a coach have to be in shape? Thats a joke— The2ndMostInterestingManInTheWorld
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