Overstating Kolb's value as a backup
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Overstating Kolb's value as a backup
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
The case for keeping Kevin Kolb has been made several times since the end of last season, and on its surface, the argument is reasonable.
With Michael Vick's style of play and an offensive line that has question marks, the Eagles could very well need a backup to step in at some point next season.
So the question is simple: Is Kolb's value as a backup greater than what the Eagles could potentially get in return for him?
If you've been paying attention over the past few months, you know my answer to that question is no.
But there is precedence here. Vick is not the only quarterback who has presented a health concern during the Andy Reid era. Didn't we go through a similar exercise to some degree during the Donovan McNabb era?
During his first two years as a full-time starter, McNabb played all 32 games. But in 2002, he suffered a broken ankle in Week 11 against the Cardinals (still, of course, managing to throw four touchdowns in the game).
The Eagles were 7-3 after winning that game, but the season was in question as McNabb would not return until the postseason.
Koy Detmer was called on to start the Week 12 game against the 49ers. He posted a 118.0 QB rating, and the Eagles improved to 8-3. But Detmer was injured in the game, and A.J. Feeley took over. With him behind center, the Eagles won four in a row before dropping the season finale to the Giants. They earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC before McNabb returned in the divisional round against the Falcons.
Overall, the Eagles were 5-1 without McNabb.
Did Detmer and Feeley play like superstars? No. Together, they had a QB rating of 79.9. And truth be told, the Eagles' defense was outstanding that season, limiting opponents to 15.1 points per game. But that team's offensive weapons didn't compare to the current Eagles' roster either. They had a running game, but James Thrash and Todd Pinkston were the team's leading receivers.
McNabb stayed on the field in 2003 and 2004, but suffered injuries in each of the next two seasons.
In 2005, the Eagles were 4-5 after a loss to the Cowboys in which McNabb suffered a season-ending injury. This time, the results without him weren't as impressive. Mike McMahon started the remaining seven games, and the Eagles won just two of them, finishing at 6-10, the second-worst record of the Reid era. McMahon and Detmer combined for a dismal QB rating of 49.42.
But just as the defense helped the Eagles in 2002, it was part of the problem in 2005, allowing 24.2 points per game (27th in the NFL). Terrell Owens was gone after seven games, and the Birds were not exactly stacked with offensive firepower.
A year later, McNabb went down in Week 11 against the Titans. In probably the biggest success story of these sorts, Jeff Garcia filled in. After a loss to the Colts dropped the Eagles to 5-6, they rebounded to win five in a row and take the NFC East title before losing to the Saints in the divisional round.
In the four games Garcia started (not including Week 17 against Atlanta when he threw just three passes), he put up a QB rating of 105.97.
Those are the three instances (pre-Kolb) that the Eagles had to count on a backup QB for three or more regular season games. In 2002, they relied on a good defense and QB play that was good enough. In 2005, the QB play was bad, but so was the rest of the team. And in 2006, the QB play was better than anyone could have expected.
What's the point here? The Eagles can probably find a backup quarterback that is good enough to fill in for Vick in the event that he goes down. Will the alternative be as good as Kolb? Probably not. In five games where he started as a backup, Kolb had a 91.6 QB rating, and the Eagles went 3-2.
Those are good numbers, but are they good enough to warrant holding on to Kolb and letting him potentially walk for nothing after the season?
I say no. Especially if the Eagles are able to acquire a defensive starter with a high ceiling in exchange for him.
And one more note on Vick. Rather than plan the offseason strategy around the idea that he's likely going to get hurt, doesn't it make more sense to try and figure out a way to limit the beating he takes?
It sure seems that way. Isn't that why they brought Howard Mudd in and drafted Danny Watkins? Isn't that why Marty Mornhinweg has talked about Vick still needing to improve his decision-making?
It's always difficult to try and predict injuries. While Vick certainly takes more of a beating than most NFL quarterbacks, consider this: In five seasons with the Falcons, from 2002-2006, he missed more than one regular-season game just once. That was in 2003 when Vick started four games. In the other four seasons, he started 15, 15, 15 and 16 games, respectively.
The obvious question to close with is: If the Eagles trade Kolb, who will they tab as their backup? SI.com has a list out of potential free agents: Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, Marc Bulger, Bruce Gradkowski, Trent Edwards, Tyler Thigpen and others.
Are the names exciting? Not really. But Feeley had not started a game before 2002, and his performance was good enough to make the Dolphins give up a second-round pick for him before the '04 season.
Detmer never played a down for another team. And Garcia, the most talented of the group, had a couple bad seasons in Cleveland and Detroit before the Eagles added him. 2006 resurrected his career as he went on to have a couple more decent seasons with the Bucs.
Reid has been here for 12 seasons, and at this point, it's much easier to notice the negatives than the positives. But the truth is this has been one of his strengths, getting the team to rally after the quarterback or another key player goes down. He and Mornhinweg have a track record with quarterbacks, and history shows it's reasonable to expect they'll be able to find a backup to hold down the fort in the event that Vick goes down.
That's why Kolb's value as a backup is overstated and why dealing him once the lockout is the only move that makes sense.
You can follow me on Twitter or become a fan of Moving the Chains on Facebook.
Straight up homie— beerflow- and that is why you are the best. rather then speculating based on hunches, you do it based on facts. Excellent job agaon Sheil.— philly_J
- Sheil, but you have to take into account that Vick likes to run with the ball which puts him at greater risk. Since he's been an Eagle his injuries have come when he was running with the ball.— soulman386
- yes soulman but thats where the "decision making" comes into play. not only in the pocket but on the run vick has to make better decisions— aam13
- They could do a lot worse than the list above as backup to Vick. When and if he goes down, the back up may only need to hold it down for a few games. With the talent on offense that the birds have they should still be able to put up points on a regular basis. If the Defense is improved, the team may even be able keep moving without skipping a beat.— paulNC
- yes, all the success all the backups had shows that McNabb numbers were also a product of Reids pass-happy system, same with Vicks numbers last season. Best of his career in one season starting in this system. Its not hard to put up big numbers when you get to throw it almost every down. McNabbs numbers were inflated and maybe even Vicks a little bit too. Piled up against garbage teams, but against the best teams niether of them can do aynthing, mostly due to reids stupid playcalling. WITH NO RUN GAME THERE WILL NEVER BE A SUPERBOWL VICTORY. EVER. thats why REid's team win in the regular season and LOSE IN THE PLAYOFFS EVERY YEAR. they need above all, a SMART quarterback, not one that runs a 4.4 40. against the best teams, gimmicks do not work, and throwing an accurate pass under pressure is the only thing that will win the game, and a SB. Vick doesnt have that skill. repeat stupidity year 13.— CharlieGarner25
- Dam, a real article with new names and ideas.....hard to belive he is a Philly writer...don't tell Les or Phil or any of the other inept ones or they will sabotage his work— nuggett
- I agree with you though Sheil, I hope they get something good for Kolb, but it wont change anything.— CharlieGarner25
- No mention of Mike Kafka?
He's basically where Kevin Kolb was a few years ago. Untested, smart, accurate, not a great athlete, good qb leadership.
Yes, get a seasoned pro as a back-up. But the calculus should also include Kafka, if for no other reason that the clever headlines if he plays. "Kafka Metamorphisizes into Starter" or Kafka Hypnotizes Cowboys" or Kafkaesque Trial for Eagles QB."— yahzooman - I thought you were serious at first. ahah — beerflow
- yahzoo
That's funny. But I think the Kafka angle is real, I'm surprised no one has mentioned it. Reid loved McNabb's ability to extend plays, even if he had bad precision he could make big plays. Then his successor (Kolb) would be the more prototypical WC QB.
When Vick emerged, I think Andy saw the chance to continue the McNabb dynamic for a few more years, with a potentially more precise QB and better weapons. I think his decision to let Kolb go was impacted by the fact that he has another Kolb in the making (Kafka) to eventually replace Vick.— RocketC - Good stuff Sheil and Charlie.— johnny eagle
- Maybe we are not giving Andy Reid's system enough credit. After all, it seems just about any quarterback who he puts in there does pretty well, and when they ultimately leave, they don't seem to succeed in a new system.— cb54
- The real question is, do the Eagles have as much of a shot to win the Super Bowl with Kolb as they do with Vick? To me, Vick goes down, so do your Super Bowl chances. So then what the heck is the point in having him potentially play 0 snaps and then leave at the end of the season for nothing?? I'd much rather move him for a legit corner who will play 50 snaps a game because a starting corner is a bigger need than clipboard holder if this team is to advance in the playoffs this year— stikolaboloni
- I believe Vick got the job because injury-prone Princess Kolb went down after making a horrible read in the first game? If you don't think that was a horrible read, watch the reply of that play. Kolb was also a disaster in the preseason, when I started warning people. My Vick support never wavered and luckily the Eagles are smarter than Ray "The Fraud" Didinger, who said "Mike Vick cannot play in this offense".— brmorgen81
- Marty Morn says Mike Kafka is the most intelligent QB he has seen at his youthful stage.— Romus
- I'll take up beat up backup Mark Bulger to provide some competition at back up...— PhilliefaninAZ
Comment removed.- The numbers have spoken and the trade better happen soon— shawnmac
- I like Mike Kafka better anyway! He played in the Big Ten and I did not know Kolb was the next Steve Young or Tom Brady. I guess a great game against a few weak teams makes you great. Still not impressed by Kolb, he sucks.— GrownMan86
- I like Mike Kafka better anyway! He played in the Big Ten and I did not know Kolb was the next Steve Young or Tom Brady. I guess a great game against a few weak teams makes you great. Still not impressed by Kolb, he sucks.— GrownMan86
- Were the Falcons weak? McNabb had great games against weak teams and he was our qb for the last decade +. Just sayin. — beerflow
- I like Mike Kafka better anyway! He played in the Big Ten and I did not know Kolb was the next Steve Young or Tom Brady. I guess a great game against a few weak teams makes you great. Still not impressed by Kolb, he sucks.— GrownMan86
- I like Mike Kafka better anyway! He played in the Big Ten and I did not know Kolb was the next Steve Young or Tom Brady. I guess a great game against a few weak teams makes you great. Still not impressed by Kolb, he sucks.— GrownMan86
- Kafka was a better player his senior year in college than Kolb is now.— Astro Jones
- Vick, love him or hate him; has been a performing Pro Bowler every year except one in the NFL. Protect his right flank, he's going to deliver. Kevin Kolb may be good, but in the face of a rush off of his right side, his arm turns to cotton candy and he has the nerve of the Easter Bunny.
— Dexter - I see Kolb as a good west coast QB. The problem is, the Eagles are not a west coast offense - have not been a west coast offense since Stalworth was brought in - and with the current group of young receivers, won't be for quite some time. They are the 70's Raiders vertical offense and it works really well. These receivers are not built to go over the middle and Kolb's arm is not strong enough to stretch the field the way Vick (and McNabb before him) can. Just think back to the Atlanta game when Kolb almost got Jackson killed. Kolb may be a very good QB, but he doesn't work for this team and there is no reason to keep him this year. The real question is "is there any way the Birds can convince Vince Young to carry the clipboard for a year or two"?— fly eagles fly
- I see Kolb's career post Eagles mirroring Feeley's career post Eagles.— Beck
- My worry is that Vick was horrible last preseason with terrible decisions and multiple turnovers per game. I loved it, but have no idea how he became so composed for the first half of the season with virtually no turnovers. Granted he was pounded into the ground by a lousy line in the second half, but the turnovers and run first attitude came back.— Blue Hens Rule
- Beck, I tend to agree with you. After about ten starts the Cardinals (I presume) will be looking to replace him.— dlscholt
- Everyone in the northeast knows why you hate Kevin Kolb, Home Boy. The last thing you want is Kolb waiting in the wings when Vick faulters again this year. It was not the defense that made Vick only score 14 points against the awful Vikings and let the Packers into the playoffs. It wasn't the offensive line, defensive line or even Kolb that make Vick only score 16 point against the Packers, who coasted the last quarter and a half of that game. It was Mike "I would have beaten the Packers if I had played the whole game" McVick who was defensed perfectly and gave a blueprint for all the other NFL teams of how to play McVick. There is a long list of players who played great during the season and flopped in the clutch at the end of the season. Donovan McChoke for one. As of now, Vick belongs with that group until he proves otherwise. This is not the first year he has donme this. We'll see where Kolb belongs after this season with a new team. For Philly fans it's win or get out of town. Let the games begin.— marioP
- Sheil, Just got a call from Joe Banner. He is making you assistant general manager and letting you do all the trades. hahahahaha— marioP
- Sheil, as you say, Feeley and Detmer benefited from a good D and running game. And those, not the QB, will be the keys to the Eagles getting beyond the first round in January. I really don't care if we go 7-9 or 10-6 and get booted in the first round. The offensive line and D are going to determine what this team does. Not saying the QB isn't the most important position, but didn't Tom Matte take the Colts to the championship? And neither Vick nor Kolb will get us there this year with the surrounding cast. Next year, maybe, if we get better on both lines, and at DB and LB.— armchairGM
- Maybe this is just me, but this article actually makes the case for having a quality backup, doesn't it?
By the way, the rest of the league caught up to vick around week 11 last year. The book was written on him years ago, and for some reason the league forgot how to contain him for the first half of the 2010 season. Look at the drop off in his stats (except against a bad Houston team and a Miracle against the giants) after the Washington game and then try to tell me how great he is.— ironman8181 - So your point is that the eagles should keep Kolb as a backup. Cool. Vick was asleep that first half of the playoff game, yup. The defense and o-line were putrid in the second half as well, yet they beat the Giants (twice maybe?), the Cowboys, and Texans. They lost to the Bears (front four manhandling our o-line and us having the worst d-backfield in the league)(we also might have had a chance had Andy not kicked the FG in the 4th qtr), Vikings and the incredible Joe Webb (who our d couldn't contain and Vick was injured on the first play), and the Packers (sack on the first offensive play (miscommunication b/w Cole and Justice)). Anyways it may seem like I'm rambling but my point is that football is the ultimate team game. This article is saying that all we need is a servicable backup qb and the coaching staff will take care of the rest.
— beerflow - So tired of people making excuses for vick. You are right, the NFL is a team game, but in Andy Reid's system, no one is more important than the QB, and my point is that he is NOT a good QB... never has been, never will. His skill set as a passer is so very, very limited, and with a career QB rating of 80 you can not argue that fact. By the way a QB rating of 80 is terrible and will get you cut or benched on most teams.
It is so easy to defend against him. We practically wrote the book on containing him in the 2005 NFC Championship game. People need to forget last year's games against 4 terrible teams (Detroit, Jacksonville, Washington and Houston are his only 100+ rated games) and look at the player he has been for 99% of his career.— ironman8181 - You need to remember games against the Colts and the rest of the year, HE WON. Despite teams adapting and blitzing, HE WON. They lost a messed up game on Tuesday against the Vikings that no one on the team showed up for. They lost against the eventual Super Bowl champs as well. Gimme a solution bro, cmon, I dare ya. — beerflow
- Vick is 31 & has taken a LOT OF HITS IN HIS STYLE OF QB & u tend to heal .. get rid of the aches & pains a little slower from NOW ON .. & THE O LINE HAS HOLES & D gets to him .. its KOLB TIME which has been good for the most part & also u NEED NOT LOOK FOR VICK'S FUTURE REPLACEMENT with him there !!— suptom
- I have been watching Vick since he was at Va.Tech I had no idea where that lie came from that he is injury prone. Especially since the Georgia Dome was sold out so much because of him and really has not been sold out since, the reason it looks like it is because corp. are buying up tickets and giving them away. So thanks again for doing the research and explaining things.— Blessed8251
Follow
Sheil on Twitter. And become
a fan of Moving the Chains on Facebook.
Download our NEW iPhone/Android app for even more Birds
coverage, including app-exclusive videos and analysis. Download it here.
