Myth vs. reality: Choosing Henery over Akers
Perhaps the most surprising Eagles pick in last week's draft was Nebraska kicker Alex Henery in the fourth round.
Myth vs. reality: Choosing Henery over Akers
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Perhaps the most surprising Eagles pick in last week's draft was Nebraska kicker Alex Henery in the fourth round.
And while Andy Reid isn't ready to concede that David Akers is gone, I think the rest of us see the writing on the wall.
So the obvious question is: Are the Eagles making the right decision?
Back in February, I wrote at length about Akers' performance, but it's worth another look now. Having just completed his 11th season as the Birds' placekicker at the age of 36, is Akers washed up? Is he elite? Is he clutch? Let's look at some of those questions.
ARE AKERS' BEST YEARS BEHIND HIM?
The answer is probably yes, but at the same time, there's been no down-curve over the last few years either. Here's a chart of how Akers performed on kicks of 40+ yards since he became the Eagles' kicker back in 2000:
| Year |
Pct. on 40+ attempts |
| 2000 |
72.7% |
| 2001 |
69.2% |
| 2002 |
77.8% |
| 2003 |
61.5% |
| 2004 |
81.0% |
| 2005 |
54.5% |
| 2006 |
75.0% |
| 2007 |
20.0% |
| 2008 |
66.7% |
| 2009 |
75.0% |
| 2010 |
71.4% |
| Overall |
67.3% |
In 2009 and 2010, he was actually above average (based on his own standards) on kicks from 40+ yards. After a slump from 2005-2007 where Akers made just 14 of 29 (48.3 percent) attempts from 40+, he's rebounded well.
In terms of kickoffs, Akers had a career year, hitting touchbacks on 24 percent of his attempts - good enough for eight in the league.
HOW DOES AKERS COMPARE TO HIS PEERS?
Football Outsiders ranked the Eagles' field-goal unit ninth in the NFL last season. In other words, Akers might not have been elite, but he was still in the top third of the league.
In 2010, kickers made 259 of 376 attempts from 40+, which comes out to 68.9 percent. Akers was above average at 71.4 percent.
There were 31 kickers who attempted five or more attempts from 40+. Among that group, Akers ranked tied for 13th (with three others) in terms of percentage made.
Here's a look at the 12 kickers ranked ahead of Akers:
| Kicker | Pct. made from 40+ | Age |
| Rob Bironas | 90.1% | 33 |
| Adam Vinatieri | 90% | 38 |
| Shaun Suisham | 88.9% | 29 |
| Garrett Hartley | 88.9% | 24 |
| Matt Bryant | 81.8% | 35 |
| Billy Cundiff | 77.8% | 30 |
| Jason Hanson | 77.8% | 40 |
| John Kasay | 77.8% | 42 |
| Jay Feely | 76.9% | 34 |
| Josh Brown | 76.9% | 31 |
| Matt Prater | 75% | 26 |
| Neil Rackers | 72.7% | 34 |
A couple things to mention here. First of all, of the 12 kickers ranked ahead of Akers, seven kicked in either an indoor stadium or a stadium with a retractable roof at home.
The other thing is age. Seven of the 12 kickers ranked ahead of Akers are 33 or older. Only three are under 30.
DOES AKERS COME UP SMALL IN BIG SPOTS?
After Akers missed a pair of field goals in the playoff loss to the Packers, this was mentioned quite a bit.
But the truth is, Akers' percentage of makes in the postseason is almost identical to his percentage in the regular season. He's hit 81.9 percent in the regular season and 81.6 percent in the playoffs.
Prior to the Green Bay game, Akers had made 19 of his previous 20 field-goal attempts in the postseason.
DOES IT PAY TO PICK A KICKER EARLY?
Six kickers have been selected in the fourth round or earlier since 2000: Stephen Gostowski (New England in 2006); Mike Nugent (Jets in 2005); Nate Kaeding (Chargers in 2004); Jeff Chandler (49ers in 2002); Bill Gramatica (Cardinals in 2001); Sebastian Janikowski (Raiders in 2000).
So how have they fared? As a rookie back in 2006, Gostowski hit 10 of 15 from 30+ and 3 of 5 from 40+. In his five-year career, Gostowski has made 69.2 percent of his kicks from 40+, which is an average number.
Nugent was 7-for-12 as a rookie from 40+. He lasted four years with the Jets and has bounced around to three teams since then.
Kaeding was good as a rookie, making 80 percent of his attempts and 8 of 11 from 40+. He has made a pair of Pro Bowls and was named an All-Pro in 2009. However, he made just 4 of 9 from 40+ in 2008 and infamously went 0-for-3 in the Chargers' playoff game following the '09 season.
Chandler attempted just 27 kicks in his NFL career and was a bust.
Gramatica only attempted 48 field goals and was out of the league in four years.
And finally, Janikowski has been in the league for 11 years, but has never made a Pro Bowl. He hit on just 9 of 18 from 40+ as a rookie and has made just over 61 percent from 40+ in his career.
In other words, there have been hits, but there have also been misses. Of the six kickers listed, only Gostowski and Kaeding have made Pro Bowls.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Eagles have been good under Andy Reid at letting veterans go before they go downhill. And we can't look past the fact that Akers was unhappy when the Birds assigned him with the transition tag. If the two sides felt they could work out a longer-term deal, the Henery pick probably never happens.
The key here is if Henery can come in and play at a high level right away. It seems clear that the Eagles feel they can win right now. And it's likely that Henery will be counted on to hit some big kicks as a rookie. The new kickoff rules (they'll start from the 35 yard line instead of the 30) should help Henery also, even though he did not handle kickoffs in college.
If he doesn't come through, and if Akers puts together three or four more quality years, this pick will be second-guessed.
But if Henery looks capable right away and goes on to play at a Pro Bowl level down the road, few will question the decision to take a kicker in the fourth round.
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The Birds do not go to the Super Bowl this year, not in our wildest dreams, so put the rookie kicker in there and let him hit some bad ones. If we go far in 2012, he should be ready for pressure kicks. Akers isn't washed up, but I give him 2 years.— armchairGM- We won't win a super bowl ever with Vick at the helm, mark my words he never wins a super bowl, no matter how much we work with his "mechanics" in big games he reverts back to his run first mentality. — mcnabbeagles
- An interesting look would be how many times were his field goals the difference in a win or loss? It feels like he has missed a lot of difference makers to me.— latur99
- Let's be honest here, Reid and the Eagles were here before, except Akers was the unproven young guy coming into the fray. So in that respect, I'll trust Andy and Co here. However, taking him in the 4th round, that's not maximizing their value. He better be worth it. Make no mistake fans will have a very short leash on booing this guy.— beegal99
- You conveniently overlooked one important fact; Akers was only bothered by the transition tag because it was done to ruin his marketability because he dared turn down Reid's below market offer. This entire situation is identical to B Dawk; a player doesn't grovel for their below market offer so off with his head! If Reid had any class whatsoever, he's drop the transition tag and just release Akers. We all know how much class Reid has though; none!
Players around the league will begin noticing how Reid treats his established veterans and will sign elsewhere.
Here's hoping Akers gets to boot the Eagles right out of the playoffs; revenge is sweet and Reid would deserve it.— JBinPA - Why the big deal about accuracy from 40+? Long distance FGs are fun, but in the NFL I'd rather have a kicker who consistently made kicks from INSIDE the 40. I'd much rather have a kicker who was 95% inside the 40 and just 50% from 40+ as opposed to one who was, say, 80% inside 40 and 70% outside. Consistency and reliability are what makes a good kicker, and Akers has always been rock solid on the close ones.— Montco PA Dem
- @JB - Players will sign where they get the most guaranteed money.— P Even
- To Akers' credit, he noticed his own falling-off in 2005-2007 and did the P90X circuit over the winter. That's the only reason he had so many touchbacks in the last 4 years. He'll be missed, but I love the Henery pick and know he'll be a great successor. I just wish it could have been a smoother transition, but the CBA got in the way of that, too!— tomvallar
- Is the kid a long kicker? Can he make 50 yarders? Can he kick the ball out of the End Zone on KO's. If so, then David is done here. The team goes on and vets know that they can usually get another team and especially that is true of kickers. And can he punt? Will Sav be here ? Will the long snapper be here and will Sav still be used as a holder?? All of this should be answered when finally these guys are allowed back to play.— Koons
Time will tell.— ej610- If Akers were rock solid they would have beaten GB. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt though.— drenner
- Agree with Latur99 - would like to see a "difference maker stat".
Either way, Akers got boned by Reid on the offer and the trans tag. He probably deserved better, despite GB.— croozn - say what you want about the situation, but don't compare it to b dawk. the money he got in denver was way more than any team was willing to pay, for a longer period of time. if he gets that deal first and accepts it, eagles fans would call him selfish, when really, he got an offer that was too good for any aging veteran to pass up, so he went with it.— aam13
- What about the championship game against AZ?— borntosuffer
- Tough call. Obviously the Eagles think they need a change. Make it a clean break. Cut Akers and give the job to this new guy.— JimSeitz
Comment removed.- Reid threw him under the bus, he is moving on. Reid will get what he deserves, a rookie kicker, kicking for Reid's prized regular season championship in the last seconds of the game.— Kioto
- Thank you borntosuffer. Also what about Akers kicking off out of bounds to kill all momentum against Minnesota? The transition tag was brilliant because when Akers goes elsewhere the Eagles will get an extra pick.— zfaber
Henery is the most accurate FG kicker in NCAA history. His coach said "he has ice water in his veins". He hit a game winning 57 yard FG outdoors. Bye bye Akers.- College kickers kick off of a rubber/plastic gizmo on field goals. It's basically a tee. You never know about them until the start kicking off the bare grass without the training wheels. — ccheung
- it would be funny if Akers kicks Reid in the nuts and yells "It's good!"— Evil Overlord
- and then say 'hows that for a 40+ yarder?"
— Evil Overlord - Father Time is knocking on his door. The Eagles are doing the right thing in replacing Akers. He's on the downswing, wouldn't sign his contract offer and refused the franchise tag. He missed 2 field goals in the final game which would have beat Green Bay since they only lost the game by oine point. But his refusal to accept the contract should mean..."see ya, thanks for dropping by"— dapmman
- I'm with you, — mish798798. The kid has a great collegiate record and those familiar with his kicking skills and mental fortitude claim he has"ice water" in his veins. His percentages beyond the 50 dwarfs Akers and, his youth is a big plus vis-a-vis Akers, that arthritis won't be a near factor in his longevity and usefulness.— essell
- Montco PA Dem.,..really silly point you tried to make. In the NFL 40-50 yard field goals are clutch. That is when a team basically steals points after a drive bogs down outside red zone Plus the damage for a miss is extensive because of the excellent field position for opposition. NFL kickers make their money from 40-50— mcat13
- this is a shrewd pick..akers' problem is mental;he has a seriously ill child and he admitted after the gb loss that he had trouble focussing..highly understandable,but if that was the case he should've removed himself earlier in the week so the eagles could have replaced him for that game...this may be a recurring situation so his departure is a done deal..the kid has awesome stats and kicking is,well,kicking isn't it???— jabac
- First: in 2007 when he hit only 20%, he literally took 6 or 7 impossible kicks, go look at the tape, its full of 50+yarders into heavy winds at the end of halfs and stuff like that. Kicks you flat out didn't expect to be made.
Not completely sold they don't keep Akers. Lets see how much he gets offered in the open market. But Reid is crazy enough to go into a season with a rookie kicker he hasn't even seen in a camp kicking off the bare grass for the first time.(see punt returners, australian rules football punters, etc)— ccheung
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