Friday, July 11, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

Line moves to favor Giants by 1

Dave Staley of sportsbook.com breaks down the line and over/under for Sunday's Eagles-Giants game:

Line moves to favor Giants by 1

Dave Staley of sportsbook.com breaks down the line and over/under for Sunday's Eagles-Giants game:

Q: What's the line for Sunday's matchup?

A: We opened the line at a pick 'em, and it just (Thursday) moved to Giants (minus-1). This line actually surprised me a little bit, as I thought the Eagles would be favored by a point or two. So far, 87 percent of the betting public is on the Giants. I am shocked that this game is so one-sided right now, but I am confident that these numbers will even out a little bit as we get closer to kickoff, especially since the Eagles are now 'dogs.
 
After five straight wins -- both straight-up and against the spread -- the Giants are coming off two very disappointing losses. Losing a third straight would be quite costly so I think that contributed to this game being closer to a ‘pick’ than I originally thought.

Interesting trend to note: The Giants are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 road games.
 
As everyone probably remembers, these two teams played three times last season, with Philly winning the last two games, including the 23-11 playoff victory. In both of those victories, the Eagles won despite being underdogs.

Q: What about the over/under?
 
The total currently sits at 44 after opening up at 43.5. With 95 percent of the action on the over so far, it is obvious why this number has moved, and I think it could easily jump another half-point.
 
Both teams can put points on the board in bunches as they combine to average 55.1 points per game. However, both teams’ defenses can be very stingy. Take away each team's game against New Orleans, and they combine to give up just 29.4 PPG.
 
Something potential total bettors might find interesting: the last six times these two teams have played, the over/under has been less than 44.

Q: What are some other trends around the league for Week 8?
 
A: After glancing at our Betting Trends page, it looks like it will be another interesting weekend of one-sided betting action. The public is currently backing 12 out of the 13 favorites, which is usually the status-quo.
 
This worked out great for the betting public last week as all of the big favorites covered. Not only did bettors have a profitable Sunday, but many of them were able to double-up on Monday night as 88 percent of the action was on the Eagles and the over.
 
It has been a pretty profitable season so far for NFL bettors. And after looking at a couple of 2009 trends, it is easy to see why.
 
Whereas I always love when home teams are getting points, they are just 14-22 ATS so far, which is good news for the public. Even more impressive, favorites of six points or greater are 31-21 ATS in 2009.
 
That being said, it will be interesting to see if the trend continues this week and if the public will continue to prosper. The big favorites include: Chicago minus-13 (64 percent), Cowboys minus-9.5 (85 percent), Chargers minus-16.5 (77percent), Cardinals minus-10 (98 percent) and Saints minus-10 (89 percent).

Sheil Kapadia Philly.com
About this blog
Sheil Kapadia is in his fifth season writing about the Eagles and the NFL for philly.com. His earliest memories as a sports fan include several trips to Veterans Stadium with his Dad. He's not a beat writer or an Insider, but is here to discuss the NFL 365 days a year. E-mail him at skapadia@philly.com or by clicking here

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Sheil Kapadia Philly.com
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