Projecting success for Kolb
A simple rule using three criteria projects NFL success for Kevin Kolb. However, the same rule would have projected failure for Donovan McNabb.
Projecting success for Kolb
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Reader Gregg B. passed along a link to an SI.com article about a simple formula for predicting success for quarterback prospects.
It's called The Rule of 26-27-60, and it focuses on the following three things: Wonderlic score (26), number of games started (27) and college completion percentage (60).
John P. Lopez of SI.com argues that if a college quarterback prospect reaches those three markers, chances are he will be successful.
QBs like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers all passed the test.
QBs like Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith did not.
So the obvious question is: What about Kevin Kolb?
Kolb scored a 28 on his Wonderlic, started 50 games in college (including Bowl games) and completed 62 percent of his passes. So yes, according to the formula, he is on the right path to NFL success.
However, as Lopez admits, there are exceptions, including (you guessed it) Donovan McNabb.
You know the story well. Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 1999 draft. Had the Eagles taken any of the other four (Tim Couch, who went first; Akili Smith; Daunte Culpepper; or Cade McNown), who knows where the franchise would have been the past decade. But they ended up with the right guy - McNabb.
So it's good that they didn't follow this rule. McNabb only passed one of the three criteria. He started 49 games in college. But he scored a reported 14 on his Wonderlic and completed 58.4 percent of his pass attempts.
Other quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco did not meet the three marks either.
As was pointed out by Bill Barnwell on Twitter, David Lewin of Football Outsiders wrote about this phenomenon a couple years ago, but he did not include the Wonderlic in his criteria - just college completion percentage and number of starts.
Other links:
* ESPN.com's Matt Mosley discusses McNabb's Hall of Fame credentials:
I think McNabb will always be appreciated more by the national media more than the folks in Philly. Every game has been dissected, so Eagles fans simply got to know him a little too well. His career has honestly been more consistent than Kurt Warner's. But Warner has the ring and he finished strong with the Cardinals. Another trip to the Super Bowl would help his cause immensely, but he's already in the Canton conversation.
* I posted on our staff blog, Pattison Ave., about the Phillies. It's a simple question about Jayson Werth cursing at a fan last night when he couldn't make a catch in foul territory.
* In case you missed it from last night, I wrote about ESPN somehow finding room to rip Eagles fans in its LeBron James coverage.
* And yesterday, we did another Camp Countdown video, taking a look at the Eagles' offensive line.
* I'm on vacation and headed to Denver, Grand Junction (Colorado) and Portland, Oregon over the next week. Who has recommendations on what I must see/do in those destinations?
* I asked for book suggestions on Twitter and will ask here also. Sports-focused is preferable, but I'm willing to branch out a bit.
* Oh, and don't worry about a lack of MTC content while I'm gone. In the age of laptops and wireless connections, I'll still provide posts daily (at least).
You can follow Moving the Chains on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
Isn't shoe size just as relevent? Dumbest thing I ever read.— tpizza
Wait....he scored twice as high as McNugget on intelligence?.....that explains why we saw all those bonehead decisions from #5 all these years....I always wondered why he did the things he did, made the decisions he made.....he was handicapped....it wasn't his fault.....— Mark1npt- Good note about McNabb and the draft. Whatever people may say about him, he was the right piok in a draft that looked very strong at QB (at the time). The last two years probably tells us more about Kolb than college and Wunderlic. He looks good, but it's all about wins and scoring, so only the games this season tell the story.— tacklinjoe
- @mark1npt: 'He was handicapped' hahahaha.. Seriously though, I have high hopes for Kolb, because you can see he's been a quick learner since he first got here; every start is a little bettr than the one before.— drbob1
Comment removed.
Yo Sheil, a good read is The Silver Lining Playbook from local author Matthew Davis. The 2006 Eagles season actually serves as a back drop for the novel. Check it out...Never had a chance to visit Denver, but will recommend going to see a show, (if there is one), at The Red Rock Ampitheatre. Acoustically, I hear it's one of the best venues in the world to see a show. And as far as Portland, I lived in the Pacific Northwest for a bit, and the landscape there is unreal. Plus, Portland has got a cool music scene going on. You could probably find a bunch of small venues where you can just kick it at...have fun.- Mark1npt: These are bold words on intelligence from someone who apparently never passed a basic English grammar class!— jimmyj
- I thougth a Ground Hog had to see his shadow at the time a player was drafted to determine if said player would be a success. Enjoy your vacation.— PhillyFanSouth
- Eagles didn't pick the right guy. The team that drafted Ricky Williams won a Super Bowl last year. Yes, it was without Ricky, but the team dynamic was changed becuase they picked Ricky.— Voytas
- Mark1npt brings up a good point, maybe mcnabb was handicapped all these years... now i kind of feel bad for criticizing him for making such stupid stupid plays. it might explain why he couldnt learn the OT rules.— Fire Andy Reid
- Voytas: Wow, I think that takes the cake for the most idiotic commnet I have ever read in philly.com! You should really become a soccer fan. Football is apparently too complex for you.— jimmyj
- Voytas earns dumbest comment of the day award. Usually saved for Doo Doo or wolf, but they decided to cuddle with each other in bed late today.— EaglesBleedMoney
- One can hope we get that great white qb we been dreaming of all these years, randall cunningham, donovan mccnab, and i know that by game 4 Vick will be our starting qb! This franchise luvs blk qb's— GregJames
- Gregjames...the only color I dream of my QBs in is Eagle green...or are you Voytas, just trying to out do the previous inane statement?— mebphila
- Sheil, try "undaunted courage" by Steven Ambrose. A history of one of the great adventures of all time as seen thru the eyes of Meriweather Lewes told as a novel. If your a fast reader "new york" by Edward Rutherford. Historical fiction at it's finest.— JACK V
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