Friday, December 19, 2014

Betting public all over Cowboys?

Before we get to our weekly visit from Dave Staley of sportsbook.com, I published an extensive post on the defense earlier today. Don't want that one to get lost in the shuffle.

Betting public all over Cowboys?

Before we get to our weekly visit from Dave Staley of sportsbook.com, I published an extensive post on the defense earlier today. Don't want that one to get lost in the shuffle.

Now, the breakdown on the line and over/under:

Q: What's the line for Saturday night's game?

A: We opened the spread for Saturday’s rematch at Eagles +3.5. But due to heavy Dallas wagering, the spread moved to +4 just an hour after it opened.

That being said, the action is evening out quite a bit. When I checked our betting trends page yesterday, 82 percent of the bettors were on Dallas. This morning, that number dipped to 72 percent. Right now, it's down to 57 percent.

When this number came out, a few folks asked me why it was so low, considering the result of last Sunday's game. I responded that this number is exactly where it should be.

Square bettors often put way too much value on a team's most recent performance. When you look at what the Eagles did the previous six weeks, it's easy to see why the number is what it is.

I was curious about what's happened in the past when teams met in the last week of the regular season and then had a rematch the following week in the playoffs. The last eight times this happened, the team that lost the last regular season game (Eagles) was 4-4 straight up and 4-3-1 against the spread in their playoff rematch.

This number could creep a little higher, but I wouldn’t count on it. And I doubt very much that it reverts back to 3.5 unless a lot more action comes in on Philly.

Q: What about the over/under?

A: We currently have the ‘total’ sitting at 45 points, which is exactly where we opened it. So far, 74 percent of the action is on the over.

Even though the betting public usually prefers to bet the over, I’m surprised that the percentage is this high, considering Sunday’s shutout and how well the Dallas defense has been playing.

The Cowboys have posted two straight shutouts, and three weeks ago they held the Saints to 17 points. Four weeks ago, they held the Chargers to just 20 points. Not surprisingly, they covered the under in each of those games.

In the first meeting between the Eagles and Cowboys, the under also covered as the teams combined for just 36 points (number was 49).

There is a very generous trend for over bettors though. In the rematch games we discussed earlier, the over covered seven out of eight times in the second game with the teams combining for an average of 55.1 pts.

Sheil Kapadia Philly.com
About this blog
Sheil Kapadia is in his fifth season writing about the Eagles and the NFL for philly.com. His earliest memories as a sports fan include several trips to Veterans Stadium with his Dad. He's not a beat writer or an Insider, but is here to discuss the NFL 365 days a year. E-mail him at skapadia@philly.com or by clicking here

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Sheil Kapadia Philly.com
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