How McNabb's 'clutchness' stacks up
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How McNabb's 'clutchness' stacks up
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
From Week 11 to Week 17, the Eagles three times came up with victories after being tied or trailing in the fourth quarter.
All three instances would qualify as "comebacks" by Nicholas Higgins of Football Outsiders.
Higgins takes an interesting look at the "comeback ability" of quarterbacks over the past decade. He defines a comeback as a situation "where the game is tied or the team is behind 1-8 points in the fourth quarter or overtime."
He also adjusts his rankings for several key factors: starting field position, time remaining, deficit and outcome. Only quarterbacks who have had at least 30 qualifying drives (playoffs included) from 1998-2009 were included.
So the obvious question is: Where did Donovan McNabb rank?
And the answer: 39th.
For the McNabb defenders, you can surely point out that the two guys sandwiching McNabb are (current or future) Hall of Famers Brett Favre, who ranks 38th, and Dan Marino, who ranks 40th.
But for the critics, who often point out that McNabb isn't clutch, well, there's plenty of support in this study for you.
Per Higgins' numbers, McNabb has had 129 opportunities to bring the Eagles back and has come through 38 times for a percentage of 29.5. His Adjusted Comeback Efficiency (ACE), which takes into account the factors I mentioned above is 0.94. The league average is exactly 1.00.
The analysis also took into account quarterback rating and how a QB performed overall, as compared to how he performed in these comeback situations. For example, McNabb's 86.5 overall QB rating from 1998-2009 ranks 15th. But he was 39th in terms of comeback efficiency, a drop-off of 24 spots.
The only two players who experienced a worse drop-off were Steve Beurlein (32 spots) and Jason Campbell (28 spots). Per the analysis, McNabb had the highest overall QB rating of the 30 worst players in terms of comeback efficiency.
Some other notes from the analysis:
* Guess who ranked first in terms of ACE? Eli Manning. He's had 66 opportunities and brought the Giants back 28 times, 42.4 percent. He had the second-biggest jump in terms of overall QB rating vs. ACE, leaping 31 spots. Jake Plummer had the biggest jump, up 37 spots.
* Of the top five ACE quarterbacks, three have Super Bowl rings: Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning. Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers are the other two.
* Tony Romo is ninth on the list. Tom Brady 14th. And Kurt Warner 27th. Higgins points out that Brady had a disastrous 2009, coming through on just one of 10 comeback opportunities.
* Higgins provides many more details and an explanation of what all the numbers mean. Definitely worth a read.
Brady was coming back from a major injury so that should be factored in. We all know what McNabb is by now. He's a talented QB who can put up big numbers when he's on his game. But some other things are clear about him: 1) he's inconsistent between games and even within games 2) he's struggled with accuracy his entire career 3) he often struggles when the team is behind and the pressure is great. We've got a talented, young QB in Kevin Kolb. It's time to turn the page and move on to a new era.— soulman386- talented young QB? He beat a high school team in in the form of the Kansas City Chiefs. The jury is still WAY out on Kolb.— thatkidrich44
- Kolb might.....might be talented, but he is unproven and sitting at backup for a reason. There's hesitation by the coaches, which says it all.....— philly449
- McNabb has some accuracy issues, so let's trade him and start rebuilding. Kolb completed a pass, so let's crown him MVP and give him the key to the city!— wcunningwil
- I guess this is interesting in an "inside baseball" kind of way. It's one stat, among very many, and I'm not so sure it's all that precise at that. But, I'm sure this will light up the boards.— MG44
- I guess this is interesting in an "inside baseball" kind of way. It's one stat, among very many, and I'm not so sure it's all that precise at that. But, I'm sure this will light up the boards.— MG44
- surprised McBozo even ranked as high as 39th. Anyone that believes in McBozo since Garcia showed how the offense should be run in 04 is of questionable mind.— jwatson
- Statistics show every two minutes another statistic is created. This article proves some stats just mean nothing at all. Eli is the most clutch QB in the last ten years?? What a joke. I dare anyone to take a look at this list without laughing. Clearly we've already started with the pointless discussions...how long til the draft?— wcunningwil
- Woah, you mean turf vs grass and weather were not considered in the stats? My point is that you can always prove your argument by taking only stats favorable to your hoped for outcome. That being said, I don't have the time to read the referenced article and I'm tired of the QB debate. If Andy gets blown away by an offer for McNabb, he'll pull the trigger. He will definitely trade Vick, which was his intention all along (notice how he structered the low first year salary and 5+ million second year salary). Kolb was not a wasted second round pick just cause he's been on the bench as you need quality depth at the QB spot.— vafan
- philly449 - find me ONE instance, just one, ever, of an NFL team that handing the reins over to the backup of the $100+ million face of the franchise, while that face of the franchise is still on the roster. THAT is the only reason... Did you even read this, or did you just click on the link and post? Over the last 10 years Mcnabb's production in clutch time has the WORST dropoff of EVERY qb not named Buerlein or Campbell. That's out of hundreds and hundreds of qbs. Here's what I thought was the kicker: "Per the analysis, McNabb had the highest overall QB rating of the 30 worst players in terms of comeback efficiency." Basically, that's another way of saying he is really good at being good when it doesn't count.
- soulman, it's nice to take away a bad year for Brady due to an injury, but let's do the same for #5 as well then...— palmyra21
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