Graham's production as a rookie
How productive was Brandon Graham as a rookie? The numbers compiled by one stats-based site might surprise you.
Graham's production as a rookie
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Time to take a break from all the defensive coordinator talk - for one post at least.
I recently noticed that Eagles rookie Brandon Graham was named to the All-Rookie Team over at Pro Football Focus. Here's what they wrote:
Quite clearly wasn’t ready to start in Week 1, and he was far too one-dimensional a player to play the run. Graham did improve before his season ended, and maintained his pass rush throughout to finish the year as the most productive rookie pass rusher (37 total pressures).
Graham had three sacks last season, but if you're a regular reader, you know I emphasize that sacks don't always tell the full story. If a player has a sack on one play but gets no pressure the rest of the game, was he really effective? What if another pass-rusher forces several bad throws and turnovers, but doesn't pick up a sack? That doesn't always get measured.
Still, I found it curious that Graham made the team ahead of some other players, who on the surface looked like they were more productive. Joining Graham on the defensive line of the All-Rookie Team were Oakland's Lamarr Houston, Detroit's Ndamukong Suh and Tampa Bay's Gerald McCoy.
Here's a look at sack totals by the top rookie defensive linemen:
| Player |
Sacks |
| Ndamukong Suh | 10.0 |
| Carlos Dunlap |
9.5 |
| Lamarr Houston |
5.0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul |
4.5 |
| Tyson Alualu |
3.5 |
| Geno Atkins |
3.0 |
| Brandon Graham |
3.0 |
| Gerald McCoy |
3.0 |
I e-mailed Sam Monson over at Pro Football Focus to get his take on why Graham graded out so favorably by their metrics. He explained that by their numbers, Graham was far more effective than you might think. PFF totals up sacks, QB hits and other pressures to properly measure the effectiveness of a pass rusher. Here's how those overall numbers compare:
| Player |
Total
Pressures |
| Ndamukong Suh | 41 |
| Houston |
40 |
| Graham |
37 |
| McCoy |
26 |
| Pierre-Paul |
24 |
| Dunlap |
24 |
Per PFF, Graham had seven hits and 27 pressures in addition to his three sacks. The only two rookies who had more were Suh and Houston.
But Graham also played fewer snaps than either of those guys. According to PFF, Graham had 271 chances to rush the passer, so he had a pressure once ever 7.3 snaps. For Houston, that number was once every 8.3 snaps. And for Suh, it was once every 14.1 snaps.
The numbers are interesting. As someone who watched and re-watched all of Graham's snaps last season, I was surprised. I thought he was OK during his rookie season, showing flashes of being an effective pass rusher, but also disappearing at times. And Graham obviously has work to do against the run.
By my unofficial count, he played about 45 percent of the Eagles' defensive snaps. Graham was active for the first 13 games before tearing his ACL against the Cowboys. He started the first four games, and then again in Weeks 11 and 12 when Juqua Parker was sidelined with an injury.
According to team stats, he had 13 hurries, second on the Eagles to Trent Cole. Parker had 12, and Darryl Tapp had 10.
One of the first things I thought of when the Eagles announced that they had hired Jim Washburn was how he could help Graham. Of course, with Graham recovering from the ACL injury, we might not know the complete answer to that question until 2012.
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Sheil is the perfect counterpoint to Gonzo. While Gonzo thinks he is a highly clever voice of the fan (“the eagles are mean boohoo”), Sheil goes out of his way to find “counterpoint” minutiae which defies what is in plain sight. Sheil is a classic forest for the trees guy who tilts everything to counter the prevailing view through bogus sabermetrics or an appeal to bogus “experts”. Look, football is not rocket science. Brandon Graham was lost last year despite getting plenty of snaps. He made little impact and was bulldozed on the run repeatedly. The team wanted so badly for him to supplant Juqua and the guy just couldn’t do it. We’ll see if Graham is ever going to be a player, I am highly dubious of that, but it is inexorably clear that he did not help the team last year. The upshot: you are both vacuous commentators that add nothing to the debate.— daner92- Is Suh that much better?— MichaelZoe
- Are you kidding? He was just named 1st team All-Pro(not Pro Bowl but All-Pro). He wreaked havoc in every game in every aspect all year. My point stands. Any metric that appears to show a player like Graham being statistically equivalent to Suh is a useless metric. Graham didn't notch 10 significant plays all season. — UncleStosh
- For the last time now...The only reason the Pigeons drafted Graham is because they knew that the Giants wanted him real bad...and being a pretty good prospect, Andy drafted him instead of the Defensive Back or Offensive Lineman that we really needed! He just didn't want the Giants to get him! And that's the real deal folks! I can't wait to see the draft this year...from the Eagles standpoint, it'll be an offensive affair! The Eagles never draft the right players! It's groundhog day all over again! And the Steelers & Packers in the Superbowl...Ralphhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!— pevans1
He is too small for d end in the NFL. Another reason the Eagles can't match up with the more physical teams in the league Plus he's from Michigan. The worst DI football program in the country. Must be a Howie pick, You know Howie was a genius at Fantasy Football.— delcodanno- correct mikeyboy. a highlight reel of mamula's career consists of a short little quick guy constantly just hitting the QB AFTER he throws the ball for a completion. ditto graham. too short. too light. too much "potential". too little real production.— barrywil
- Wow, getting close to the qb is now a stat. Mike Mamaula should be in the Hall of Fame. Graham stunk this year.— mikeyboy
- Maybe we should have negative pressure and positive pressure. Hear me out. The qb runs out of the pocket to escape Graham's pressure and winds up throwing a pass for a first down or runs down the field for thirty yards. That would be a negative pressure which must be subtracted from his positive pressures. O.K. I'm done.— macadittles
- If we have a stat for pressure by d-linemen than we should have stats for o-linemen, pressure prevents.And the qb can have interceptions thrown under pressure, and pressure escapes. And passes completed under pressure, td passes thrown under pressure. How about running backs picking up the pressure to prevent a sack.— macadittles
- Graham = Bust. Julius Peppers was available last year. The End.— green(withenvy)
- Graham wont be 100% again until the END of next season.— valorius
- Graham was a rookie...he really did not have anyone to coach him, mentor him...and maybe Washburn will provide the needed help to teach him. Before we carve Graham up, as we tend to do with all Eagles...give him a chance to heal and become better. I marvel at how players seem to be criticized and worked over....then they leave and become great.— envirojoe55
"Hindsight is 20/20" = best saying ever. OMG they could've picked ___________!— Leegles- You forgot to mention that he played hurt before the ACL and was sick for a few weeks also. OH, I forgot, you guys missed that story. What a surprise.— craig123
OMG... Does anyone remember all the talent that was available when they picked Graham? Top rated players who played positions of dire NEED for the fat man? I'll just end this with Pouncy C, BERRY S, THOMAS S, Weatherspoon LB, Haden CB, etc... At this point, Graham is only a guy with potential. And the Eagles have had many, many draft picks never reach their potential while other teams take lower picks into the playoffs.— desjones
Let's not forget Graham was rookie. Cut the guy some slack. Chances are, he wasn't going end up with double digit sacks anyways. I thought he showed potentional. Assuming he recovers from his injury, and when he's 100%, I expect him to make a large contribution to this D, especially now that Washburn is the DL coach (yes, he'll make a huge difference with this DL).— phillychaos
Graham isn't a good fit in the Eagles defense- Whos Brandon Graham is that one of the Egals male Cheerleaders?? Woof Woof Egals... Woof Woof.... Wooof Woooof Egals Woof Wooffff....— Calabrese10
Tough break for a good kid with alot of potential. I saw some good things from him, but that chart seems a bit off. Some guys take a little longer to develop, Cole wasn't an animal right away. The kids a hard worker and I'm sure he'll bounce back, let's hope he's not another Abiamiri though. Just like some of you have already stated nobody on that list should be compared to or even came close to having the impact that Suh had this year. He was an absolute BEAST right out of the gate.- In order to put this "new" metric in context, you only have to look at the chart above to show how INEFFECTUAL it is at grading players. According to your chart and theory regarding "pressures", Graham had a whopping 4 less than SUH, which would mean that he had a season that compared favorably to him. Well, if you had the pleasure to watch Mr. Suh play this year than you would know what a farce that claim is. Suh is already one of the top 5 players at his position and is an absolute superstar. Graham could barely get on the field ahead of Juqua Parker. Sorry dude, but its the "pressures" that are over rated(notice I did not say "hits" but pressures). If you are getting real, quality pressures then you would end up with more than 3 sacks.— ccheung
- ccheung, actually stats are a good way to show how effective a player is. Of course PFF's 'Total pressure' chart doesn't tell the whole story, no stat ever does. You also got effectiveness against the run, how many defenders it takes to account for one player, how many snaps a player plays, etc. But it does show that Graham was doing some good things out there, and was actually more effective at pressuring the QB than all the other rookie DE's when he did play. That's what the Eagles drafted Graham for, to get to the QB...Suh is in a class of his own at DT spot.
- I think the dline and their prior coach is getting a lot more grief than necessary and maybe the new guy will make an impact but from the stats for just defensive lineman I have seen and you can confirm but they finished 4th in the nfl in sacks, 3rd in TFL, 2nd for knockdowns/hurries, 6th for passes defended, and Cole was #1 for lineman for tfl. That is not bad by any means. I think when we evaluate the defense and the coaches we need to see the big picture. The future is bright but the past was not all dim.— Mello
Comment removed.- I too am surprised by PFF's grading. I thought he was as others thought--okay, not great, and that he had yet to prove himself worthy of what the Eagles traded for to get him. I wonder if the folks at PFF go any deeper with their statistics. Such as, what is the opposing quarterback's completion % and int. % when a particular defensive player has applied pressure? That would seem to show the bedrock value of someone who is paid to pressure the quarterback.— andrewfrombrooklyn
- I read before the season that rookie DEs rarely make an impact because it's such an eye-opener coming to the pros, especially at that position. Because of his injury we probably won't know how good he is until 2012 at the earliest.
- That is a SEVERE injury he will be trying to recover from folks. AND it happened late in the season. It will take approximately 18 months to FULLY recover from the injury, and be READY to play good football again. But like most young players he will try and "hurry" the process. It won't work, and may result in him being injured again. I am not counting on him being there, or if he is, being EFFECTIVE when he does play. Remember how long it took Stu Bradley to FULLY recover from HIS injury? Looks like the whole defensive side of the ball is gonna be keepiing Andy staring at the ceiling at three A.M. most mornings. Until he finds someone that wants to be the DC! That lack of help on the defensive side is gonna pressure him to reinforce the O-Line with our first pick...assuming someone of the type we need is still there when we pick! I have my fingers crossed that somehow a package to SOMEBODY will yield a pick to get the guy we really need. If it means letting KK go, well, he would be a luxury next year....— TBear
Reading this makes his ACL injury really depressing. I still have very high hopes for him and the good news is that it seems like his own hopes are even higher.— Skohr- Comment removed.
- Hopefully Graham's knee is right for 2011. Wasburn will turn this guy into a pro bowler.— pflynn20
- That's the big problem. He injured it at the end of the year, and it usually takes a full season before he's really back and trusting it. I don't think Graham will be right until the last quarter of the season or maybe not until 2012.
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