Expectations for Maclin in 2010
Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin had 56 catches for 773 yards as a rookie. How do those numbers compare to other receivers during the last five seasons? And what's in store for Maclin in 2010?
Expectations for Maclin in 2010
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Jeremy Maclin had a standout rookie season, catching 56 balls for 773 yards.
But what's in store for him in 2010?
In order to better form an educated guess at how Maclin might perform next season, I took a look at how his rookie numbers compared to other first-year receivers since 2004.
I focused on receiving yards as the criteria for selecting this group, but also included their other stats. The following chart shows the 10 receivers whose yardage totals during their rookie seasons most resembled Maclin's total of 773:
| Player | Catches | Yds. | TDs | YPC | Rookie Year |
| Jeremy Maclin | 56 | 773 | 4 | 13.8 | 2009 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 58 | 780 | 8 | 13.4 | 2004 |
| Calvin Johnson | 48 | 756 | 4 | 15.8 | 2007 |
| Keary Colbert | 47 | 754 | 5 | 16.0 | 2004 |
| Roy Williams | 54 | 817 | 8 | 15.1 | 2004 |
| Santonio Holmes | 49 | 824 | 2 | 16.8 | 2006 |
| Lee Evans | 48 | 843 | 9 | 17.6 | 2004 |
| Donnie Avery | 53 | 674 | 3 | 12.7 | 2008 |
| DeSean Jackson | 62 | 912 | 2 | 14.7 | 2008 |
| Greg Jennings | 45 | 632 | 3 | 14.0 | 2006 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | 37 | 576 | 3 | 15.6 | 2007 |
Not bad company, huh?
And here's how those 10 players performed in Year 2:
| Player | Catches | Yds. | TDs | YPC |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 103 | 1,409 | 10 | 13.7 |
| Calvin Johnson | 78 | 1,331 | 12 | 17.1 |
| Keary Colbert | 25 | 282 | 2 | 11.3 |
| Roy Williams | 45 | 687 | 8 | 15.3 |
| Santonio Holmes | 52 | 942 | 8 | 18.1 |
| Lee Evans | 48 | 743 | 7 | 15.5 |
| Donnie Avery | 47 | 589 | 5 | 12.5 |
| DeSean Jackson | 63 | 1,167 | 9 | 18.5 |
| Greg Jennings | 53 | 920 | 12 | 17.4 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | 57 | 664 | 4 | 11.6 |
And finally, differential from Year 1 to Year 2:
| Player | Catches | Yds. | TDs | YPC |
| Larry Fitzgerald | +45 | +629 | +2 | -0.3 |
| Calvin Johnson | +30 | +575 | +8 | +1.3 |
| Keary Colbert | -22 | -472 | -3 | -4.7 |
| Roy Williams | -9 | -130 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Santonio Holmes | +3 | +118 | +3 | +1.3 |
| Lee Evans | 0 | -100 | -2 | -2.1 |
| Donnie Avery | -6 | -85 | +2 | -0.2 |
| DeSean Jackson | +1 | +255 | +7 | +3.8 |
| Greg Jennings | +8 | +288 | +9 | +3.4 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | +20 | +88 | +1 | -4.0 |
| Totals: | +70 | +1,166 | +30 | -1.3 |
| Averages: | +7.0 | +116.6 | +3 | -0.13 |
So what can we conclude from the numbers? Here are some notes and observations:
* Six of the 10 receivers had more catches in their second years; one had the same; and three had fewer. Six of the 10 were within 10 catches (plus or minus) of their totals as rookies.
* Six of the 10 receivers had more receiving yards in their second years; four had fewer. Seven of the 10 had more touchdowns as sophomores; one had the same; and two had fewer.
* The most dramatic improvements were Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. The most dramatic dropoff was Keary Colbert.
* Every one of the 10 guys on the list were taken in the first or second round of the draft. The highest picks were Johnson (second overall) and Fitzgerald (third overall). The lowest pick was Colbert (62nd overall).
* If Maclin falls in line with the averages, he'll project to 63 catches for 890 yards and seven touchdowns. But obviously there are several variables. It'll be Kevin Kolb, not Donovan McNabb throwing Maclin the football. Also, remember that Maclin missed a portion of training camp last year as a rookie.
* Last year at Lehigh, DeSean Jackson was the Eagles' most impressive player. When Maclin got on the practice field, his talent was evident, but I was skeptical of him having an immediate impact and picking up the offense right away. I was wrong. He came in and played very well. It'll be interesting to see how different Maclin looks this year at Lehigh.
* So, based on what you see above, what are your projections for Maclin in his second season?
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Comment removed.- Comment removed.
seriously though you have to laugh at lonewolf's posts... always mentioning the bionic knees. lol— sasquatches- Very nice analysis Sheil. I demonstrated my faith in Maclin by keeping him on one of my fantasy teams. OK, it wasn't my best team-my best team had both D-Jax and Maclin- (I kept D-Jax on that one) but I still debated that decision. I'm expecting 8 TD's minimum for Maclin with something close to 1000 yards. About the same-maybe more TD's- for D-Jax.— Rick Wise Guy
I just worry about Maclin having a dropoff, ala Reggie Brown, but I doubt that is gonna happen. Maclin didn't even turn it on until the end of the year. By he end of the season, he was simply awesome on the field. DJax will continue to be great- His YAC will be fantastic and hopefully Kolb should be able to throw it at least 40 yards (that's all Desean needs for separation).— kjuggs77- Comment removed.
- I applaud Sheil for his attempt at projecting Maclin's 2nd year numbers but there are more variables than average receptions, yards and TDs to consider. First is the consideration of a change at QB from year 1 to 2 (McNabb vs Kolb may affect his numbers). Second is looking to see if these comparable players were a WR1 or a WR2 (Fitz had Boldin which helped while Avery had no other WR which hurt). Third is to see if injuries figured into their or another WRs playing time (as was case with Curtis which helped Jackson in year 1). I see a better year 2 for Maclin with Curtis and Brown gone, but looking at averages only is a bit short sighted. Hell Reggie Brown had a great Year 1 and then we saw what happened after that.— kcruel
- Oharabri, well played sir.— The Reddgie
- I predict that Maclin's catches go up significantly, and his YPC actually goes down. I suspect similar yardage and TD numbers this year, maybe slightly higher. Kolb will favor the dependable TEs more, and you'll see their yardage and TD numbers increase at the expense of the WRs. I think, barring injury, Celek is going to be a fantasy stud this year.— pete317
- I personally hope that D Jax does not become a distraction with Maclin becoming the go to guy. I can remember Maclin having a great game and D Jax didn't. He left the game without speaking to anyone. Could this be a sign for the future? Hey this is the year when he is going to want his contract redone. We will see!!!!!!
- When did Kolb become a clutch player?— PhillyTru
- Hey 'lonewolf 10'---you are def. a passionate guy to say the least!— Romus
- I'm as excited about Maclin Year 2 as I am about anything else with the Eagles. Loved following his career at Mizzou and for what it's worth, he had a much higher pedigree than Desean coming out of college. They always say for a wideout, the 2nd year in the NFL is when things really start to click -- saw it with Desean last year when he came to camp he had a better understanding of the offense, he was moving around quicker and with more confidence (able to go out and focus on just playing, rather than where to line up or which route to run against certain coverage, etc). If Maclin takes that next step in his second year, the sky is the limit for this offense
- 75 catches and about 825 yds sounds about right, Jackson will have a big year and the O will have a lot more receiving yds. I suspect the YPC will be down a little and the run attempts as a total will also be up. This will be due to more sustained drives and not as many home runs which will help the defense.— jss31
- lonewolf...your astute analysis aside, please explain some of your conclusions. Kolb as clutch? Was he clutch against the Saints? Was he clutch against the Ravens? To be clutch you actually have to be in clutch situations to begin with. Also, have you ever seen a mack truck (just google it, I'll wait). Last time I checked, 5'8" and 175 lbs doesn't sound much like a mack truck. Mack trucks generally aren't known for their speed and elusiveness.— greaser0305
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