Expectations for Maclin in 2010

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Jeremy Maclin averaged 13.8 yards per catch during his rookie season. (Clem Murray / Staff file photo)

Jeremy Maclin had a standout rookie season, catching 56 balls for 773 yards.

But what's in store for him in 2010?

In order to better form an educated guess at how Maclin might perform next season, I took a look at how his rookie numbers compared to other first-year receivers since 2004.

I focused on receiving yards as the criteria for selecting this group, but also included their other stats. The following chart shows the 10 receivers whose yardage totals during their rookie seasons most resembled Maclin's total of 773:

Player Catches Yds. TDs YPC Rookie Year
Jeremy Maclin 56 773 4 13.8 2009
Larry Fitzgerald 58 780 8 13.4 2004
Calvin Johnson 48 756 4 15.8 2007
Keary Colbert 47 754 5 16.0 2004
Roy Williams 54 817 8 15.1 2004
Santonio Holmes 49 824 2 16.8 2006
Lee Evans 48 843 9 17.6 2004
Donnie Avery 53 674 3 12.7 2008
DeSean Jackson 62 912 2 14.7 2008
Greg Jennings 45 632 3 14.0 2006
Anthony Gonzalez 37 576 3 15.6 2007


Not bad company, huh?

And here's how those 10 players performed in Year 2:

Player Catches Yds. TDs YPC
Larry Fitzgerald 103 1,409 10 13.7
Calvin Johnson 78 1,331 12 17.1
Keary Colbert 25 282 2 11.3
Roy Williams 45 687 8 15.3
Santonio Holmes 52 942 8 18.1
Lee Evans 48 743 7 15.5
Donnie Avery 47 589 5 12.5
DeSean Jackson 63 1,167 9 18.5
Greg Jennings 53 920 12 17.4
Anthony Gonzalez 57 664 4 11.6


And finally, differential from Year 1 to Year 2:

Player Catches Yds. TDs YPC
Larry Fitzgerald +45 +629 +2 -0.3
Calvin Johnson +30 +575 +8 +1.3
Keary Colbert -22 -472 -3 -4.7
Roy Williams -9 -130 0 +0.2
Santonio Holmes +3 +118 +3 +1.3
Lee Evans 0 -100 -2 -2.1
Donnie Avery -6 -85 +2 -0.2
DeSean Jackson +1 +255 +7 +3.8
Greg Jennings +8 +288 +9 +3.4
Anthony Gonzalez +20 +88 +1 -4.0
Totals: +70 +1,166 +30 -1.3
Averages: +7.0 +116.6 +3 -0.13


So what can we conclude from the numbers? Here are some notes and observations:

* Six of the 10 receivers had more catches in their second years; one had the same; and three had fewer. Six of the 10 were within 10 catches (plus or minus) of their totals as rookies.

* Six of the 10 receivers had more receiving yards in their second years; four had fewer. Seven of the 10 had more touchdowns as sophomores; one had the same; and two had fewer.

* The most dramatic improvements were Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. The most dramatic dropoff was Keary Colbert.

* Every one of the 10 guys on the list were taken in the first or second round of the draft. The highest picks were Johnson (second overall) and Fitzgerald (third overall). The lowest pick was Colbert (62nd overall).

* If Maclin falls in line with the averages, he'll project to 63 catches for 890 yards and seven touchdowns. But obviously there are several variables. It'll be Kevin Kolb, not Donovan McNabb throwing Maclin the football. Also, remember that Maclin missed a portion of training camp last year as a rookie.

* Last year at Lehigh, DeSean Jackson was the Eagles' most impressive player. When Maclin got on the practice field, his talent was evident, but I was skeptical of him having an immediate impact and picking up the offense right away. I was wrong. He came in and played very well. It'll be interesting to see how different Maclin looks this year at Lehigh.

* So, based on what you see above, what are your projections for Maclin in his second season?


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