Evaluating the Eagles' rookie class
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Evaluating the Eagles' rookie class
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Earlier this week, I saw a note from DraftMetrics.com about playing time for rookies in 2011, in light of the shortened offseason.
According to their numbers, rookies started a total of 870 games this season. That's the highest number in the past 10 years.
And the Eagles had 46 rookie starts, third-most in the league, behind only the Browns (66) and the Broncos (52). Keep in mind that number does not count special teams (Alex Henery and Chas Henry).
So, overall, the Eagles counted on their rookies quite a bit, compared to the other 31 teams. But how did the first-year players perform?
That's what we take a look at today.
Danny Watkins (1st round, 23rd overall)
Playing time: In the first month of the season, Watkins had three inactives and a DNP to his name. But in the Eagles' Week 4 loss to the 49ers, right guard Kyle DeVan had all kinds of trouble. That provided an opening for Watkins to start the following week against the Bills. Overall, he started 12 games in his rookie season.
Performance: It was an up-and-down first season for Watkins, who turned 27 in November. It's fair to say he had more issues than any other starting offensive lineman in pass protection, even though he showed flashes of potential, specifically as a run blocker. For those who assumed Watkins would be able to come in and play at a high level right away, his first season was a disappointment.
Looking ahead: It's fair to expect Watkins to improve with a full offseason of work with Howard Mudd. Remember, he missed part of training camp too during contract negotiations. The Eagles will need Watkins badly in 2012. Assuming free agent Evan Mathis is re-signed, the Eagles have a chance to start training camp with the exact same offensive line that finished the 2011 season.
Jaiquawn Jarrett (2nd round, 54th overall)
Playing time: He was active for 12 games and started two. Jarrett saw significant action on defense in four games: against Chicago, Arizona, Dallas (the second game) and Washington (in Week 17). According to Pro Football Focus, he played a total of 254 snaps.
Performance: Jarrett is an enigma after his first season. Safety was an issue for the Eagles for much of the year. They signed veteran Jarrad Page, who started the first five games before eventually being released. Nate Allen wasn't healthy enough to start the season and was up-and-down once he got on the field (although he finished strong). And Kurt Coleman began the season as a starter, was benched after the first Giants game, and then re-claimed his spot. In other words, the Eagles were very much in need of a rookie who could provide an instant upgrade at safety, but it didn't happen. We heard Jarrett was a big hitter in college, but didn't see that in games. And Jarrett had just two special-teams tackles. He started against the Cardinals and struggled in coverage (although, to be fair, safety is a difficult position to evaluate off TV tape). Jarrett played one snap against the Seahawks and took a bad angle on a long Marshawn Lynch run. According to PFF, he blitzed 14 times.
Looking ahead: The bad news is this: At no point this season did the Eagles think Jarrett would be better than Page or an injured Allen. The good news is Jarrett didn't play enough for anyone to make a fair evaluation of what he's capable of. The offseason will be crucial for him. And in 2012, Jarrett will likely get a chance to compete for a starting safety spot with Kurt Coleman.
Curtis Marsh (3rd round, 90th overall)
Playing time: Marsh was inactive for the first nine games, before dressing for the final seven. However, he played almost exclusively on special teams, accumulating just 13 total snaps on defense, per PFF.
Performance: He did not stand out on special teams. In fact, the only reason that casual Eagles fans probably recognize Marsh's name is because he had two special-teams turnovers late in the season.
Looking ahead: The Eagles have some decisions to make at cornerback, and part of that depends on who the coordinator is and what system they're running. If they trade Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will be the starters, with Joselio Hanson likely manning the slot. That would leave Marsh to compete for the fourth cornerback spot with Brandon Hughes and perhaps some players who are not currently on the roster. If Asomugha or Rodgers-Cromartie suffer an injury, Marsh could be called on to play significant snaps in 2012.
Casey Matthews (4th round, 116th overall)
Playing time: He started the first two games at middle linebacker and then moved over to WILL. From Weeks 4 to 13, Matthews barely saw the field. But in the final month, he was used in nickel and dime packages. Overall, Matthews played 332 snaps, per PFF. Only Jamar Chaney and Brian Rolle played more among Eagles linebackers.
Performance: The Eagles' decision to start him right away is still a puzzling one. They felt Watkins wasn't ready, so they signed DeVan. They felt Jarrett wasn't ready and Allen wasn't healthy, so they signed Page. Marsh was never going to see significant action. Yet, the Eagles felt Matthews could get the job done at middle linebacker, playing behind the wide-nine. They were wrong. He looked much more comfortable towards the end of the season, playing primarily in coverage. He also had 11 special-teams tackles, third on the team.
Looking ahead: Maybe Matthews will improve, but based on what I saw from 2011, it's difficult to see him being an effective linebacker against the run. That means a more specialized role in coverage. We have to wait and see what the Eagles do in free agency and the draft, but Matthews could enter camp as a first-team nickel linebacker.
Alex Henery (4th round, 120th overall)
Playing time: Not really relevant. Henery was the team's kicker all season.
Performance: He hit 24 of 27 field-goal attempts, including five of six from 40+. The Eagles' field goal unit ranked ninth, according to Football Outsiders. Henery notched kickoffs 37.6 percent of the time, which ranked 22nd among the 32 kickers who had at least 40 kickoffs last season. The Birds' kickoff coverage unit was a bright spot on special teams, ranking fifth, according to Football Outsiders. The one blemish to Henery's rookie campaign was the 49ers game, where he missed two fourth-quarter field goals from 39 and 33 yards away.
Looking ahead: Kickers' performance can fluctuate from year to year, but Henery had a good rookie campaign to build on.
Dion Lewis (5th round, 149th overall)
Playing time: He was active for 15 of 16 games, but played mostly special teams. Until Week 17, when LeSean McCoy was injured, Lewis played a total of 19 offensive snaps, per PFF. Other than Week 17, he never played more than four offensive snaps in a given game.
Performance: It'd be foolish to read too much into his abilities as a runner. Lewis carried just 23 times for 102 yards (4.4 YPC). As a kickoff returner, he was unimpressive. Of the 27 players who returned at least 20 kicks, Lewis had the second-lowest average at 21.6. Football Outsiders ranked the Eagles' kickoff return game 24th in the league. In terms of blocking, I thought Lewis held up fine when asked to pick up blitzers or chip defensive linemen. Again, not a large sample size though.
Looking ahead: The Eagles have whiffed in their attempts (Mike Bell, Ronnie Brown) to find a good complement to McCoy. Jerome Harrison was good, but his time here was brief. It's a difficult role to fill because you need someone who is good enough to start if McCoy gets injured, but also someone who's not so good that he wants a lot of playing time. Maybe Lewis will impress the coaches in the offseason and win that spot. If not, they'll need to add a veteran. The Eagles need to get a better kickoff returner as well.
Julian Vandervelde (5th round, 161st overall)
Playing time: Vandervelde was inactive for 15 of 16 games.
Performance: Nothing to go on here.
Looking ahead: The starting guards next season will likely be Mathis and Watkins. But there will be backup spots available for an interior lineman like Vandevelde. He'll likely have to compete for a spot with whoever the team drafts and picks up in free agency.
Jason Kelce (6th round, 191st overall)
Playing time: He started all 16 games, and no Eagle played more snaps than Kelce.
Performance: He was clearly one of the Eagles' best picks last season. Considering he was a rookie, and the Eagles were implementing a new blocking scheme with Howard Mudd, I'd say Kelce exceeded expectations in his first year. He was far from perfect, and I'm not quite on board with those who say he played at a Pro Bowl level (although I did not study the league's 31 other centers), but Kelce improved as the season went on and always looked like he knew what he was doing. When he struggled, it was generally because an opposing defensive player beat him fair and square, not because Kelce was confused. He showed impressive athleticism and was one of the reasons the Eagles rated so favorably in second-level (2nd) and open-field (4th) blocking by Football Outsiders.
Looking ahead: The Eagles are expected to part ways with Jamaal Jackson, and Kelce figures to be the center for years to come. He has room to improve, particularly in pass protection, but the coaching staff is obviously impressed with Kelce's development.
Brian Rolle (6th round, 193rd overall)
Playing time: He played in all 16 games and started 13. Rolle played the most snaps of any of the five defensive players the Eagles drafted in 2011.
Performance: He was the smallest of the Eagles linebackers, but probably played the best of the group. Rolle had six tackles for loss (tops among Birds LBs), a sack, four QB hurries and a forced fumble. His size (measured under 5-10 at the combine) can be an issue, but Rolle showed good instincts and is one of the team's more physical players on defense. Towards the end of the year, he split time with Keenan Clayton in the nickel. At times, Rolle has trouble with opposing offensive linemen in the run game, but that makes him no different than the rest of the team's linebackers.
Looking ahead: Of the Eagles' current linebacking group, Rolle probably has the best chance to return as a starter in 2012, although nothing's certain. The team needs to upgrade at middle linebacker and SAM, but Rolle could be the man to beat on the weak side.
The Rest
And finally, four players I didn't mention above: Chas Henry (undrafted), Greg Lloyd (7th round, 237th overall), Stanley Havili (7th round, 240th overall), and Cedric Thornton (undrafted).
The Eagles' punting game ranked 16th, per Football Outsiders, in Henry's first season.
Havili spent the season on the practice squad. Lloyd and Thornton split time between the practice squad and active roster, but neither dressed for any games.
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I hated the Watkins pick and still do, but he bounced back from a tough start and he strikes me as a guy who will continue to work and try to get better. Don't see him as an all pro though, he's got a long way to go and a short time to get there. I still have visions of his Baylor teammate Phil Taylor tossing him around like a rag doll in the exhibition game. The pick of Jarrett in the second round and Marsh in the third round is inexplicable. The kicker in the fourth was a spite pick, which never should happen in the NFL. Matthews was a total reach in the 4th. They got lucky in the later rounds and have for several years. If that luck ever runs out they are in serious trouble, because their ability to evaluate talent in the top half of the draft is suspect.— dlivesay- every one of these picks were a "reach"... which the eagles continue to do year-after-year. they are NOT living up to their slot; that's not on the player but rather on the person evaluating the talent (or lack-there-of)— nyphilliephan
- The Eagles are not cheap, they were when Braman was the owner, but not under Lurie. Their problem is they do not spend wisely.— billro33
- They must hit home runs in the first three rounds this year. If not, bye bye Andy ...— petergou
- psualum,listening to the radio and TV analysts, most disagree with you about Kelce. At the end of the year, Didinger and Baldinger both said he had shown a lot of improvement through the seasonand felt that he would would continue to improve As far as being a jerk, he was backing his coach and his teamates. Plus, he went on WIP and said why he did what he did and, I think,he apologized for some of his comments so he's at least man enough to back up his words.— John Klink
- the words "pedestrian" and "detritus" have been used to describe this years' draft crews. this means a) it was another poor draft and b) Eagles' fans are particularly erudite. Yo'!! Adrienne!!!— doc35
- As Harry K would say swing and a miss again on the top of the draft. Appears we get more starters in the 6th and 7th round...we should trade all our early picks for some proven guys eh??— tsump
- Here is my post from 11/30 in the midst of all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about Watkins (and repeated bad reviews of Watkins by Sheil):
There is much to criticize about the Eagles this year but I think Watkins has been an innocent bystander in the line of fire between the fans and Reid and the front office. If you have the stomach for it, go back and watch the tape and you'll see Watkins physical performance has been very strong, especially in the run game. He moves well to the second level and pancakes people when he gets there. I've not seen him overpowered in pass blocking but he has at times appeared to struggle at being in the right place. He's also taken some penalties. In short, he's played like a rookie, but like a rookie with promise. I expect him to make a huge jump next year with the benefit of the off-season and a full pre-season. Watkins will definitely be above average barring injury, and may well turn out to be a pro bowler.
Today Watkins is one of two guards named to the NFL All-Rookie Team. Yet there are still "geniuses" posting here that Watkins is a bust. Oh well, I guess it helps explain how Obama got elected.
— chuck60 - One more thing on the "innocent bystander" label. Watkins held out. The Eagles offered him a good contract and he said, "I'm worth more money that." Despite being a 27 year old draft pick, Watkins decided his best course of action was to put his development on hold while his agent bargained for a few more dollars. He stopped being an "innocent bystander" when his actions directly interfered with his ability to play football for the Eagles this year. — bc3030
- The Eagles found two solid linemen in last year draft, that's amazing both started and were productive. Look at who the Eagles played and reconsider their play.
Some of you know nothing about football Watkins and Kelce played their hearts out for first timers. Jamal Jackson and the Kid from USC, Justice will never be heard from again in Philly, that's for sure.
— Dexter - As far as the 2011 picks, I thought Brian Rolle looked pretty good, I think Kelce needs to get stronger, and I think Watkins will benefit greatly from a full offseason of learning. On the 2010 picks, Graham and Allen both get a pass because they had major injuries, but we need to see great things from them in 2012.— kingsolomonsmind
- kelce is a jerk and was not that good. a few too any false starts, he got beat a lot and cannot move the line on short yardage. watkins has potential, jarrett is a big question mark, the kickers lot decent so far and rest look loke busts. lewis was terrible as a return man. and matthews hopefully will barely sniff the field in the future, he was really bad. overall, a terrible draft.— psualum
- blah blah - bottom line --Giants have 2 superstars from recent drafts (pierre paul, Nicks) drafted after the Eagles picks -- Eagles have garbage --obviously for kicker they should have kept Akers - only thing worse than eagle game day decisions and playcalling are their draft day decisions..— warbiscuit
- Last 2 years third round pick were impressive.....they should always trade out of that round— Ssteve115
- There are two points to make: 1) though they started a lot of games, they were mediocre at best. And 2) there is not a star among them. Pedestrian at best.— 4thand10
- I think Henery is a way bigger question mark and had only an Okay season. It might look good if you just quickly glance at FG % but the fact is that the Eagles routinely chose to punt or go for it instead of kicking long field goals because they obviously don't have confidence in Henery's leg strength. Right now he is a mod-pack kicker who cant win games-he's not a scorer. His kickoff % attests to his relative lack of leg strength. I saw this in real time all season and just went to check to make sure I wasn't making it up. Fact: Henery had 6 FG attempts of 40+ yards. He was a solid 5 for 6 but only two of the FG's were over 45 yrds. The other three were 40,40, and 43 yds. The miss was short on a 51 yrds. In comparison, the kickers I would put in the top 10 in the league had lower FG made %'s(slightly) but averaged around 17 FG's attempted of 40+ yards, with 4 or 5 made FG's from over 50 yrds. That is being a scoring threat. Henery is not in that class right now. Some were surprised Bailey was the rookie kicker on the All-rookie team but it goes to show that league evaluators are more impressed with his 16 attempts at 40+, 4 from 50+ with only a couple more misses overall. It is way more important for your kicker to be able to hit from deep as opposed to racking up a cheap FG% based on kicking what in the NFL are considered gimmes— UncleStosh
- I concur with your evaluation, but as a rookie he wasn't horrible which means he has skills. If he continues to get better and adds some strength it may turn into a great pick. — bc3030
- That draft suck like all the rest except for a few good players that are not super players!— losteagle
- bc3030 - on point re. both Watkins and Jarrett.
Jarrett was a reach in he 2nd round. Yet another case of the Eagles believing themselves to be more clever than the rest of the league (Teo Nesheim being just one of too many examples).
Honestly it's hard for fans to hold out much hope in the upcoming draft with same "minds" calling the shots. Sheesh.— FishFryFrank - How many times must we be reminded it is foolishness to judge a draft after one year? If the Eagles had taken Alex Smith he would have been shipped off after a year. BUST-BUST-bust...— Murrayman
- Alex Smith is a quasi-bust. He had a nice game the other day but he was the #1 OVERALL selection in the draft. He averaged a whopping 196 yards passing a game this year and still; hasn't thrown 20 TD's in a season in an era when 25 TD's is the new standard for above average. The 49ers are where they are despite having a mediocre QB who did one good thing, he managed his TO's decently this year(17 TD's, 5 INT's). That is not a successful #1 overall draft pick, not even close. — UncleStosh
- Watkins, Jarrett and Matthews were said to be reaches as the time. Turns out they were.— mikemaddog
- Casey has better hair than all of them, therefore he was the best pick!— Geno D
- Kelce, Rolle and the two kickers exceded expectations. HOWEVER need much better production fom high draft picks. Unfortunately, this continues recent drafts. We cannot keep messing up high draft picks!— Rahjr
- One more thing about Watkins that I've seen pointed out a few times by bloggers: The Eagles brought in an offensive line coach that is supposedly famous for being able achieve success by plugging unheralded journeymen into his line. So then the Eagles go out and use a first round draft pick on a guard? Where's the logic there? It sure sounds like not everybody was on the same page there.— bc3030
- Here is how I will define BUST status for Watkins and Jarrett:
For Watkins, he needs to make the pro bowl by his third year. You don't draft an OG in the first round for mediocrity. Maybe he will become a decent starter for many years, but you can find a OG like that in the 3rd or 4th rounds.
For Jarrett, he needs to be able to beat out Coleman for the starting job. I like Coleman a lot. He's a great hitter. He's a 7th round draft success story. But he's not the fastest guy in the world and seems more qualified as a strong backup/special teams guy. Jarrett, drafted in the second round, needs to be able to beat him out or he's a bust.
— bc3030 - Why wasn't Lloyd made a starter?????? He has a famous father!— ej610
- and dont forget that kicker Henry (approx 300K) is ALOT cheaper than dave akers ($1.something MIL) - YES WE SAVED $$$$ !!
fat andy should only oversee the draft on day 2!— dheis - Don't be dense. The NFL has a salary cap. When the Eagles save money on a player they spend it elsewhere.
A few years ago I might have asked something like, "How many years are you malcontents going to sit and watch the Eagles be THE major player in free agency before you admit that saving money is not an issue?" But year after year people like you stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the facts staring you in the face. Guess what? Fans of other teams wish their teams were as aggressive as the Eagles when it comes to going after players. I guess they know more about your team than you do.— bc3030 - Stop patrolling the message boards Spadaro. — Klambake
- Banner's "CoffeeBoy" has screwed up the draft the last 2 years and he'll be back at it again this year (see Lurie and his definition of the word "UNACCEPTABLE"). Can we all agree that "Quantity over Quality" is not working like Howie "the Bean Counter" thought it would?— younged
- The bottom part of the draft is where you can roll the dice but the top half is where you make your money. Eagles would be bankrupt with that draft and what scares me is that the 6th round produced two "starters" which will only reinforce that misguided concept where you trade down for more picks in hopes of getting lucky. Me, I'd rather take a shot at one Cadillac than choose between 4 Hyundais.— tpizza
- FAT ANDREW AND PARCHESI KING HOWIE ROSEBUD ARE CLUELESS. THANK YOU JEFF LIBERACE LURIE FOR MULTIPLE SUPER BOWLS— Pete60
- The Eagles arent playing right now because their Qb turned the ball over as many times as he scored NOT because Jaiquwan Jarrett didnt play...— FABER
- You can completely blame the draft. They needed a safety, didn't get one. They needed at least one NFL linebacker, didn't get one. And then with their first pick they draft a soon-to-be 28 year old, who is just not that good. Hitting on a sixth rounder is nice but whiffing on 1,2,3's is very costly. Roseman is a disaster.— snakeplissken
- agreed. Rounds 1 and 2 have been busts the last two years. Of the picks above only Henery and Kelce look like possible NFL talents but the jury is still out. The rest of those guys would be special teamer's on a legitimate NFL franchise. The Lawyer is going to set back this supposed NFL franchise at least a decade. — coloradoeagle
- The jury is still out on Graham. You can't call a guy a bust because of injury. Allen was injured too, and played pretty well.
I'd say it's easier to pronounce a verdict on 2011's first and second round picks than it is to judge 2010 at this point.
I think there's a very good change Nate Allen will make us happy as a starter for many years. Graham? Again, the jury is still out. There's no way to know at this point.
— bc3030 - Agree with banned: rounds 1 - 4 of the draft not very productive for the Eagles— Mr. Magee
- Kelce is a yes, Watkins is a maybe, and Henry is a yes (because all rookie kickers lose games, that's why Super Bowl bound teams don;t use them!)Rolle can play if the other two LBs are big leaguers, otherwise, no.
The rest are detritus.— banned - Sheil, they had FOUR rookies who played mostly well as starters. Watkins made all-rookie team. In terms of immediate impact that's pretty darn good when compared to other teams. They didn't make the playoffs because of turnovers and being outschemed on defense. Don't blame the draft.— soulman386
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