Eagles playoff scenarios after Giants' win
The Giants beat the Vikings, 21-3, Monday night, setting up a huge game Sunday at the New Meadowlands Stadium. Here's what the Eagles' playoff scenarios look like going into Week 15.
Eagles playoff scenarios after Giants' win
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
The Giants' 21-3 win over the Vikings Monday night sets up an enormous matchup against the Eagles Sunday at the New Meadowlands Stadium.
Both teams will enter the game at 9-4 with three to go.
So, just how much is riding on this game from the Eagles' perspective?
Let's take a look.
If the Eagles win...
They put themselves in the driver's seat in the NFC East. The first tiebreak for division winners is head-to-head, and the Eagles would be 2-0 against the Giants. That means if both teams finish the season at 10-6 or 11-5, the Eagles would be division champs.
The only way the Eagles would not win the division in this scenario would be if they went 0-2 in the final two weeks, and the Giants went 2-0. In other words, their magic number heading into Week 16 would be 1. Either an Eagles win or a Giants loss in the final two weeks would give the Birds the division title.
If the Eagles lose...
They'll find themselves at 9-5 and would likely have to fight for a wild-card berth, although winning the division would not be out of the question.
The first tiebreak is head-to-head, which would be a push.
The second tiebreak is division record. If the Eagles win their final two games and finish 11-5, and the Giants go 1-1 in their final two and finish 11-5, it all depends on who the Giants lose to. If they fall to the Redskins in Week 17, the Eagles get the division. But if the Giants lose to the Packers in Week 16, and then beat the Redskins, both teams would have division records of 4-2.
If that happens, the next tiebreak is record against common opponents. In this case, both teams would be 8-4 there.
And finally, conference record would decide it. The Giants would be 9-3 (assuming a loss to the Packers), and the Eagles would be 8-4. Edge: New York.
So to clarify, if the Eagles lose Sunday, the three ways they can still win the division are:
* Finishing 2-0 and having the Giants go 1-1 with the loss being to the Redskins.
* Finishing 2-0 and having the Giants finish 0-2.
* Finishing 1-1 (but beating Dallas) and having the Giants finish 0-2.
Note: Updated above part, thanks to commenter shamburg82.
There's no other way it can happen.
Which brings us to the wild card.
Both the Eagles and the Giants got some help here with the Bears and Packers losing on Sunday. There are currently seven teams with eight wins or more. Since none of the seven are in the NFC West, that means they're battling for five spots. Here are the seven that are fighting to get in:
| Team | Record | Schedule | Oppts. Winning% |
| Falcons | 11-2 | @SEA, NO, CAR | .436 |
| Saints | 10-3 | @BAL, @ATL, TB | .711 |
| Bears | 9-4 | @MIN, NYJ, @GB | .564 |
| Eagles | 9-4 | @NYG, MIN, DAL | .462 |
| Giants | 9-4 | PHI, @GB, @WAS | .564 |
| Packers | 8-5 | @NE, NYG, CHI | .744 |
| Bucs | 8-5 | DET, SEA, @NO | .487 |
The Falcons appear headed for the No. 1 seed, and the Saints are a good bet to take the No. 5 seed as the top wild card, barring a collapse.
Of the teams above, either the Giants or Eagles will win the NFC East, and either the Bears or Packers will take the NFC North.
If the Eagles find themselves in a wild-card tie with the Bears or Packers, they lose out on account of head-to-head losses earlier this season. But this scenario looks a little sunnier than it did before Green Bay lost to Detroit and Aaron Rodgers suffered his second concussion of the season. Green Bay has an extremely tough remaining schedule - the toughest of any of the seven teams.
If the Eagles finish in a wild-card tie with the Bucs or Saints, it would come down to conference record. I'm not ready to go deep into that research just yet, but as of right now, the Eagles and Bucs are 6-3 against NFC teams. The Saints are 8-2.
So that's where the Eagles' playoff hopes stand. The stakes will be high Sunday at 1 p.m., and there's still plenty to be decided in the final three weeks of the season.
what it all boils down to is that the Eagles have to win or go home! But on the other hand, if the Eagles can't sweep the rest of the schedule this season against the Giants who they handled already, the Cowboys and Vikings, then we are saved the humiliation of facing a quality opponent in the playoffs. This is not a championship team and it's my hopes we don't do anything to ruin a perfectly good draft position by going into the playoffs to get bounced right back out, what's the purpose?— Dexter- Playoff experience for a very young team. I don't see why they couldn't win a game or two in the playoffs. You never know. — pigsofsunday
- Can Cliff Lee hit Giants Pitching, no one in the middle of the Phillies Line up Could in October?— Dexter
- Sheil: Check out the playoff machine on ESPN.com. Very useful to play around with the scenarios. Eagles chances look a whole lot better with that GB loss last week.— CJD
- I like the fact that a playoff spot is really in their hands. Win and you are in! Take that newly found winning attitude and put the pedal to the metal and bring it home with a smile... :-)
Go Eagles! - I thought I saw that the NFL moved the Giants game to a 5pm starting time??? No. Are you sure it is 1pm??— Koons
- McNabb and the worthless skins could have helped by beating TB on sunday but the botched extra point could really hurt if the Eagles don't beat the Giants— glove69
- No... what's a sports? Never heard of that before. Isn't this a baking site?
Dont blame me cause you said something stupid. There are a ton of morrons that post comments and mean what they say. If you say that we're knocked out of the playoffs with the bucs winning out and the saints winning in their two road games, then I have to assume you meant it as you said it. If you misspoke or implied something, which it sounds like you did, then I apologize for mistaking you for one of the millions of idiots that flood the internet. I was just going of what you posted.— shamburg82 - Shamburg82, um yeah, I think everybody including me realizes that if the Eagles win the division they will make the playoffs. We are all talking about if the eagles aren't able to win this weekend against NYG. If the Eagles lose to NYG, do you really want to pin hopes on Redskins beating the Giants in the last week? Do you watch sports?
- @TXEaglesFan, It doesnt matter what the bucs and saints do... if the eagles win the division they're in!
@nmlawyer, The Pats missed the playoffs in 2008 with an 11-5 record!
Does anybody know sports around here?!?!?— shamburg82 - Matt Cassel took the Pats to 11-5 and missed the playoffs a couple years ago.— MichaelB
- YOU MESSED UP THE SCENARIOS MAN!!!... If the Giants beat us then go 0-2 against the Skins and GB, we don't need to win out. We only need to beat the Cowboys. If we lost to MIN and NYG, and beat DAL, we'd both be 10-6 and we'd have a divisional record of 4-2 and they'd have a divisional record of 3-3.
And you could've simplified the other Scenario by saying:
If we lose to NYG and win out, we get in with a NYG loss to the Skins.. Instead of the whole "They go 0-2 or they go 1-1 with their loss being to the skins"— shamburg82 - Interesting scenario TXEag, a Baltimore win over New Orleans this week could go a long way in forcing New Orleans to have to beat Tampa in week 17. That might be a play-in game. Hopefully, the Eagles will make all this conjecture moot and just win out. It does add a lot of interest to some of these other games though. I don't believe there's anything left for Sheil to do in trying to figure this thing out, just read the last few posts.— pigsofsunday
- Excellent article, as it does clarify things. I had unfortunately come up with the same scenario, namely, that an Eagle loss on Sunday could be fatal. Since the league expanded the playoffs to twelve teams, I don't think an 11-5 team has ever missed the playoffs. In fact, 10-6 is usually good enough. On the other hand, I don't think a team with a losing record has ever made the playoffs. Hello NFC West!. So, we could have a 7-9 playoff team with an 11-5 team staying home. Oh well, everybody knew the rules going in.— nmlawyer
- its gonna be tight here. its crazy that the birds could win 2 out of the next three, finish with 11 wins and miss out. we're in better shape than the pack though, and i like our chances. beating the gbags will be huge!
so proud to be an eagles fan.
GO BIRDS!— meengreen - because I have nothing better to do, running through the ESPN playoff generator, the Eagles will NOT make the playoffs if TB wins out and the Saints beat Baltimore and Atlanta; but still Atlanta will clinch the division if they beat Seattle this week and then Carolina in the last week. Would NO play starters hoping for ATL to lose at home to Carolina? Otherwise in this scenario NO is pretty much locked into #5. A lot of speculation I know, the Eagles win this weekend and no problems, but trust me, be a big fan of Baltimore this weekend against NO. (or hope TB loses to Detroit or Seattle at home)
- Yea, that's somewhat disturbing, The Bucs could get a perfect trip by beating Seattle and the Lions at home and then play New Orleans who possibly (depending on the outcome of their game with Atlanta) could be resting their key players for the playoffs. In that case, a loss to the Giants and 11-5 record would leave the Eagles outside.— pigsofsunday
- And if the Eagles happen to run the table - which I believe they will do - there is a strong possibility that they will also earn a bye-week. The Bears are sure to lose at least one more game considering their schedule, and that would mean the Eagles would become the second seed. There's even an outside chance that the Eagles , by running the table, could get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Things will become much more clear after this weekend.— jimqk
- No problem. Just win out!!!— gakski
Welcome home CLIFF LEE gO Phillies- Eagles have to win this weekend or else. TB actually control own destiny for wildcard, and saints may rest for last game if they are locked in #5 spot going into week 17. That would really stink to finish 11-5 and miss playoffs, while TB and joke team from NFC West advance.
- How does Cliff Lee figure into this?— jibberjabber
- So the Eagles need to win on Sunday, right? Well that's a news flash!— BIGEGLFAN
You need an algebra book to fully understand these things. But then, after all, it's a multi-million dollar business.
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