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Friday, October 23, 2009

Time for our weekly visit from Dave Staley of sportsbook.com.

Q: What's your take on the spread for Eagles-Redskins this week?

A: Currently, the Eagles are minus-7 for Monday night’s game at Washington. The line originally opened at minus-6.5 but moved to minus-7 on Monday morning. Despite the line change, 95 percent of the early money so far is on the Eagles. If the action stays this one-sided over the next couple of days, we could see it go to minus-7.5. If you plan on backing the Birds this week, get on it early as the difference between minus-7 and minus-7.5 is pretty significant. On the flip side, if you are one of the few that like the 'Skins, you might as well wait; maybe you’ll get an extra 1/2 point.
 
It is a little surprising that so many folks are backing the Eagles coming off their dreadful loss to the Raiders last week. Recent results often stick to the minds of the betting public; obviously, that's not the case here though. Then again, I think the Eagles just didn’t take the Raiders seriously and were looking ahead to facing their three NFC opponents over the next few weeks.
 
Maybe this has to do with the fact that Andy Reid teams often bounce back from disappointing losses. Case in point -- last year’s 48-20 drubbing of the Cardinals just a week after getting embarrassed by the Ravens.
 
Although, it probably has a lot more to do with the fact that Washington is abysmal. They do have two victories, but those wins came against two of the NFL’s winless teams, the Rams and the Bucs.
 
Despite having four losses, the Redskins do have a very good defense that can keep them in the game. Only one opponent scored over 20 points on them, and their opponents are averaging just 16 points per game. Then again, their schedule has been ridiculously soft. Besides the Giants, their other five opponents have a combined win total of four games.
 
Another point: bettors often notice when a team hasn’t been able to cover. Considering Washington is just 1-5 against the spread, it is no wonder so many people are on the Eagles.

Q: And what about the over/under?

A: The total is currently at 37.5 points after opening at 38.5.
 
This number seems pretty sharp to me although the bettors don’t agree as 89 percent of the early action is on the over.
 
As mentioned, the 'Skins have been very competitive on the defensive side of the ball. They rank fifth in yards per game (287) and fifth in points allowed (16.0 per game). Again, we'll see how valid are these numbers are, considering their competition. It isn’t surprising that they covered the under in five of their six games.
 
On the offensive side of the ball, the Redskins average just 13.2 points per game and have a season-high of 17.
 
Besides last week’s 9-point performance, the Eagles have shown they have the firepower to cover the total by themselves.
 
This number might just creep back up to where it started, so if you like the ‘over’ get on it now.

Q: What have this year's Monday night games been like from a gambling perspective?

A: Like most Monday night games, this will probably be one of our most important games of the week. Not only because of the one-sided action but also because of the action Monday night games take in.
 
The Monday night game is usually the biggest game of the week from a betting standpoint for a few reasons:
 
1. Obviously it’s the bettors’ last chance to bet on the NFL for six days.
 
2. It’s a stand-alone game which is in the living rooms of every potential bettor.
 
3. For those bettors that won during the weekend, they want to keep their streak going.
 
4. For those bettors that didn’t fare so well, they want to get back some of their losses.
 
From a sportsbook.com stand point, we’ve done well on spread bettors on Monday night as five out of the seven 'dogs have covered. However, we’ve done horribly on the total. The over covered six out of seven times, which is usually a profitable trend for the betting public. I anticipate this action will remain very one-sided so it should be another nail-biter for the boss.

Posted by Sheil Kapadia @ 10:11 AM  Permalink | 15 comments
15
Comments   
Comment removed.
Posted 11:37 AM, 10/23/2009
jwatson
the smart bet would be the skins plus spread. The eagles will probably win by 3 or 4 points. Watching our head coach and star QB on comcast being very serious about correcting this and that, and communicating with everybody, and watching game films was the same old bulls***. Don't know what is funnier-the usual McSmiley the clown, or this weeks question and answer session being Elmer the Sad faced bozo-making faces and sniffling with asthma or a bad cold.
Posted 12:25 PM, 10/23/2009
Frito1
Last year the Redskins beat the Eagles both times they played with the similar sorry squad the Skins have now. I would be a little cautious on the typical Eagles over optimism.
Comment removed.
Posted 02:30 PM, 10/23/2009
JACK V
a question, who is playing mlb for the eagles? oh, the guy they got from that powerhouse defense in st. louis this past tuesday. now, the eagles are favorites over a team they haven't beaten since 2007?
Posted 02:33 PM, 10/23/2009
lonewolf 10
that's all, with all these weapons we have for the hall of shame QB,,if big red's job was on the line,he would have stayed with a hot kevin kolb,,as someone told me today,big red does not want to hurt donnie ,or make him look bad by playing kevin kolb,,,,if the birds lose to these cupcake deadskins,big red has be a man and bench the hall of shamer,,kevin kolb would have led the team to win over the raiders that's a no-brainer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,btw,donnie the clown's idol died today....soupy sales..................................my man.
Posted 03:05 PM, 10/23/2009
Panthro22
Oh I know I'm cautious with thinking that this will be a win. The Deadskins always play the Eagles hard and after that benching that Campbell had, he'll try to come out firing and running. If ouor defense is not up to the task, and our offense is on "stall", look for another loss. And if THAT happens, its all over!!
Posted 03:05 PM, 10/23/2009
Panthro22
Oh I know I'm cautious with thinking that this will be a win. The Deadskins always play the Eagles hard and after that benching that Campbell had, he'll try to come out firing and running. If ouor defense is not up to the task, and our offense is on "stall", look for another loss. And if THAT happens, its all over!!
Posted 03:50 PM, 10/23/2009
Sharpy24
The Bookie's always win!
Posted 03:57 PM, 10/23/2009
Peetee
McNabb is now, and always was a choker. The trick to betting the birds is to figure out when he perceives pressure. Monday Night might do it. If I had my drothers I'd start Kevin.
Comment removed.
Posted 11:20 PM, 10/23/2009
Regan368
Hey, anyone want a chance to win tickets to the Eagles/Dallas game on Sunday, November 8th? Call 215.525.0694 on Sunday October 25th between 11 am and 12pm. Once there are 100 callers on the line a winner will be picked!!
Posted 01:11 AM, 10/24/2009
starbird
Eagles may win 3 more this year.
Posted 01:53 PM, 10/24/2009
ItalianSausage
Jeff Fisher, 2010 Eagles head coach, +3....book it!
Posted 08:48 PM, 10/24/2009
tpizza
As someone told me today, that guy Lonewolf sure is an idiot. Someone...hahahahahahahahahaha. It just keeps getting better.
About Moving the Chains
Sheil Kapadia is a sports producer for philly.com. His earliest memories as a sports fan include several trips to Veterans Stadium with his dad, most of which turned out disappointing results. He's here to discuss the NFL 365 days a year. E-mail him at skapadia@philly.com or by clicking here

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