Eagles 15-point favorites vs. Bucs
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Eagles 15-point favorites vs. Bucs
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Time for our weekly visit from sportsbook.com's Dave Staley:
Q: What do you make of this week’s Eagles-Bucs line and over/under?
A: We opened the line for the Eagles game Wednesday morning. Right now the Birds are giving a whopping 15 points to the winless Buccaneers. The first thing I always look for when the lines come out every week are which teams will be getting double digit points. So, this game along with the Giants giving up 15 are the lines that jump off the page. However, after looking into this one a bit more, it is obvious why the Bucs are getting so many points. They have really only been competitive in one game so far, last week against a bad Redskins team. In their other three, they suffered double digit losses, with a point differential of 16.7 points per game. They have thrown for a total of 158 yards in their last two games and could be in for another long day in the air as the Eagles have the second stingiest pass defense in the league, allowing just 156 yards per game. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are back so the Eagles' offense should be back at full strength even though it was quite impressive without them two weeks ago. McNabb, Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, etc. That’s a lot of weapons on the field against a Tampa team giving up 26.7 points per game. I think Michael Vick will actually make an impact this week. Finally, you can’t ignore how important bye weeks are for teams. Look no further then the fact that the Eagles are 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 games following a bye week -- very impressive indeed. The early bettors obviously agree because after checking our trends page, 76 percent of the early action is on the Birds.
Currently, the over/under sits at 43 with 73 percent of the early bettors on the over. This is a pretty standard total as far as points are concerned. Obviously, as mentioned above, the Eagles shouldn’t have a problem putting points on the board, but will the Bucs do their part? They are only averaging 13.5 points per game so far this season, including just 13 in the past two weeks combined. I really don’t know how they are going to move the ball against the Eagles' defense, which yields only 262 yards per game. A couple of trends support the under in this one. In their last six games against the NFC East, the Bucs covered the under five times. In their last 22 games following a bye week, the Eagles covered the ‘under’ 18 times.
Q: What is the most intriguing line of the weekend?
A: A game which we are expecting a lot of action on is the Falcons (+2.5) vs. the 49ers. I’m a little surprised that this one isn’t San Fran (-3). The difference is only half-a-point, but any time a spread is 3 1/2 or 2 1/2, that extra 1/2 point is a big deal considering so many games fall on three. The Falcons are also coming off their bye, but their bye numbers aren’t anything like the Eagles'. In their last 21 games after a bye, they covered 10 times. I’m also surprised the Vikings are just giving 9.5 points to the lowly Rams. I fully expected this one to be in double digits, and I still think it will move in that direction. If you like the Vikings, get on this one before it moves to 10 or higher, especially considering 10 is a very key number in wagering. If you like the Rams, you might as well wait to see if you can get an extra half point or more. So far, 99 percent of the early action is on the Vikings. I have a feeling this game will have the most lopsided action of the weekend, especially if it doesn’t go to double digits.
Q: What were some of the major gambling story lines from Week 4?
A: Well, since we were on our own ‘bye’ week last week, I have to mention that in Week 3, the NFL bettors made out like bandits. They were on the winning side of just about every NFL game. To add insult to injury, someone won the $100,000 Perfect Parlay. The guy went 16 for 16 en route to a six-figure payday. The look on my boss’ face was priceless when we informed him. I knew this thing was way overdue to hit. I had the opportunity to speak with him; he planned on paying off his college loans, taking out his mother for her birthday and buying a new putter. Congrats againto Andrew M. from California.
As far as this past weekend, Sunday we pretty much broke even with the gamblers, but Monday night the public won big again as they sided with the Vikings and the over by a pretty big margin. Of course, the MLB Playoffs are under way. The betting public had a huge win as the Phils took down the Rockies in Game 1.
If you're in full Phillies mode, here's a video recap of Game 1. I think I should have smiled more.
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Lonewolf you continue to speak, thus removing all doubt that you are a fool... the fact that you think Kolb gives the Eagles a better chance than McNabb shows how little you know about sports. Get a bowl of cereal and go back down to your parents basement.— PhillyinDaChi- Let me know when the Eagles beat a team with a winning record.— cuso20
- lonewolf get lost loser, your post are as dumb as you what are you 10 years old? You are NOT an Eagles fan so get lost punk.— ec420de
- Eagles could win by 20, no question. But there's also a 1 in 3 chance they'll lose, and that could go up when the Bucs see the oddsmakers think they're nothing. I say the Eagles win only if they bring it on all cylinders.— tacklinjoe
Why is there any pressure on DM to cover a spread? One more point than TB is all that is required. Seems like that is the source of all your DM hatred, isn't it wiffie. You lost a bundle of $$$ on Eagle games and you blame DM. Aw, tooooo bad. I thought that all along. I'm sure you made it up on this year's Kentucky Derby though...oh, wait...sorry to bring that up. Don't bet and you can't lose. Gambling explains it all. Aww, poor wiffie. Mope.— tpizza- Comment removed.
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- It's the W's, not the stats...remember wiffocrite [since once again you are contradicting yourself]. Your words, or did I misquote you again? Oh, please say it. Why not bet your condo again? Or maybe your LearJet? We know the Lex is already gone but giving away a Matchbox toy isn't much though. I don't think I'd risk that private island in the Bahamas that you own though...Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha. BTW, why aren't you at the Phils game with the rest of the season ticket owners? Thought so...or did you donate them too? Hahahahaha— tpizza
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- Definitely Giants. That man-crush he has on Eli is frightening. #2 in the league? And you'll notice on that foolish list where he had KK #8 [I'm still laughing at that one] he didn't specify which Manning was #1, Mr. Ed or Alfred E. Neuman. If not a Giant fan why would he care what I called him and as a supposed Eagle fan he has more names for his starting QB than have grass in my lawn. He has no cred and the whole board knows it. On another note, Sunday's game has no juice for me. I see DM playing a half, then KK mops up. I also see more and more wildcat as Vick gets back into form so I see the best of the Eagles at the end of the year. Wadaya think? Will be glad when the real season starts.— tpizza
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- They can criticize DM all they want hood, but when they are glad that the Eagles lose it proves they aren't Eagles fans. I don't care how much anyone hates DM, there is no Eagle fan alive that is glad when they lose. Not only is wiff a liar, he is a fraud too. He gets more pathetic every day and I have no doubt his probs with DM go to gambling losses. No doubt at all.— tpizza
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- Wolf--if you are going to criticize Donovan, at least be accurate about it. He's actually very good as a heavy favorite. In fact, you yourself have said on several occasions that he beats up on bad teams (and pads his stats against them) and does just enough to lose to good teams in big games (and when you've said this, I have to admit that I haven't totally disagreed with you). At least try to be consistent with your usually worthless drivel. I still can't figure out, however, why we can't be fans of BOTH Donovan McNabb AND Kevin Kolb. Aren't they both on the Eagles?— reils
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