How Asante stacks up
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How Asante stacks up
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
With Asante Samuel expected to be dealt in the coming weeks, a common question being asked is: What exactly should he be worth?
Terry McCormick of TitansInsider.com reported yesterday that the Eagles were seeking a third-round pick for Samuel. But considering the top free-agent cornerbacks on the market - Cortland Finnegan and Brandon Carr - got $24M and $25.5M guaranteed, respectively, should the Birds be looking to get more?
We've been over the many issues with dealing Samuel several times in this space. He's 31, due $9.5M in 2012 and is best utilized in a specific system.
According to Football Outsiders, though, Samuel grades out as an elite player if he's put in the right role.
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders recently released the site's cornerback charting stats, and the numbers reflect a very strong season for Samuel in 2011. Among players who were targeted at least 40 times, Samuel allowed 4.4 yards per pass, third-best in the league.
Samuel's success rate - defined as the percentage of passes that don't manage to get at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third down - was 67 percent, which also ranked third.
And Samuel allowed 2.0 YAC on average, second-best. By all statistical accounts, he had a great year.
Most of you know I really appreciate the work Football Outsiders does, and I find a lot of value in the charting numbers. But in Samuel's case, I don't think the stats tell the whole story.
I went back and looked at my Man Up write-ups from last year. For the most part, Samuel did a decent job in coverage. But he also got lucky quite a bit.
In the first matchup against the Giants, Samuel got beat badly by Victor Cruz on a double move, but Eli Manning overthrew his receiver on what easily could have been a 50-yard completion.
Against the Bears, Samuel was beat by Roy Williams on what would have been a 20-yard gain, but Jay Cutler threw behind his receiver. Later, Devin Hester beat Samuel for what could have been a 45-yard gain, but Cutler underthrew him (to Samuel's credit, he recovered nicely).
Larry Fitzgerald beat Samuel with a double move, but John Skelton was off-target with his throw. And Samuel also likely had a hand in Fitzgerald's 37-yard catch late in that game, although he wasn't targeted specifically.
I have no way to prove that Samuel was luckier than other cornerbacks. And the point here is not to pick on him or poke holes in his game. For the most part, when quarterbacks threw Samuel's way last year, they didn't have a lot of success. And in 2010, the charting numbers on him were even more impressive (3.2 yards per pass, 78 percent sucess rate). But it's important to note that a couple plays going differently could have significantly changed those overall numbers.
It's also worth looking at how often cornerbacks threw at Samuel, compared to Nnamdi Asomugha. The first column below shows number of pass plays each guy was on the field for, courtesy of Pro Football Focus. The second column shows number of targets, per Football Outsiders. And the third column is the percentage of plays each guy was targeted when in coverage.
| Total Pass Plays | Total Targets | Target % |
|
| Asante Samuel | 483 | 61 | 12.6% |
| Nnamdi Asomugha | 571 | 36 | 6.3% |
Samuel's targets went from 36 in 2010 to 61 in 2011, which of course makes sense since Asomugha was on the other side instead of Dimitri Patterson. When Samuel was in coverage on passing downs, he was targeted 12.6 percent of the time. Asomugha was targeted 6.3 percent of the time.
Opposing quarterbacks had success when they threw at Asomugha, averaging 9.0 yards per pass, the worst mark of any Eagles cornerback, but they still stayed away from him quite a bit. In Asomugha's final year with the Raiders, he was targeted 7.0 percent of the time he was in coverage. Quarterbacks actually threw at him less in 2011. While he clearly did not meet expectations last season, Asomugha still deserves some credit for the job he did when quarterbacks didn't throw at him.
In run support, none of the Eagles cornerbacks gave them much. And overall, Joselio Hanson was the only one who proved to be a consistent tackler. Samuel has never been a physical player, although he had his moments last season (specifically in that Dolphins game).
As for where he'll end up, Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean reports that the Titans' interest is lukewarm at best and adds that there's no way the team would give up a conditional third-round pick for him. The Lions have no interest, according to Mike O'Hara of FoxSports.com We'll find out what the league thinks of Samuel's value in the coming weeks.
I also posted on a report that the Eagles will host Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins.
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Samuel would be a fool to restructure his Contract to meet the Eagles needs in a league starved for Defensive Backs with his talents. It's not surprising that Eagles fans doesn't appreciate and recognize Samuel talents, hell they didn't see the talents of Christ Carter when he wore Eagles green.
Come on , these are the same fans who thought Kevin Kolb was the second coming of Norm Sneed.
Point is, the Eagles have three defensive backs and two are more suited to play Man to Man which Samuel is not and, that makes him the odd man out.
Samuel was the defense in Philly when there was no defense in Phila. There was no help on the Eagles defense other than Dawk.
What ever happen to Jamal Jackson, the center Fans wanted to start in place of Kelce last year, he was released, did another team pick this guy up?— Dexter- I think the Eagles should at least get a 2nd round pick .. let him restructure his contract and KEEP him! Don't just trade him for the sake of trading him !— bill poore
- Samuel makes plays..some of you guys dont know football. I HATE NA AND DRC. we are gonna lose a really good player.— Natural215
- Exactly! move the hard hitting, fearsome Asante to safety. Hell, why not linebacker? Terrible comments today. Step it up dummies.— dragoon6
- I always thought Samuel was a weak tackler however he was no WORSE than any other D.B. including the safeties. I actually saw DRC JOGGING next to players as they gained 15 extra yards as it ws clear he didn't want to make contact pathetic! But what do you expect when an offensive line coach Is the D-coordinater can't imagine the tackling will get any better
- I WISH THEY WOULD LET HIM PLAY FREE SAFETY.....SO HE CAN DO WHAT HE DOES BEST READ AND REACT....MONEY'S THE PROBLEM....HE'S MAKING TOO MUCH NOW— bigpaulie
- Just because Philly reporters say the Eagles will trade Samuel doesn't make it so. He's one of the best players on the team. He's not going anywhere. Philly "sportswriters" made this trade bull up just to attract more eyeballs to the online and print ads.— jimqk
- Folks the Eagles would not be replacing Asante with a Rod Woodson, Champ Bailey or Ed Reed - you know the only guys who are ahead of him in active all time interceptions. No we'll be treated to the 'big play ability' of DRC, who just happens to be in the last year of his rookie contract.
Asante has earned his money, he's been a vocal leader and a team player ever since he arrived, so please don't attempt to compare him to any of the other defensive players on this team.
You don't hear anyone writing about players who've gotten tired at the end of the season, guys who've out run on simple crossing patterns or guys have been run over at the line of scrimmage. No sir, you don't even read articles on those guys - but five times a week we've been treated to some lame Hate post dogging #22.
Less we forget that this is year two of this nonsense! Stop it all ready.
You can't demand respect if you don't give it!— Laughingaloud123 - Guess other teams watched some tape and saw all the missed tackles.— eaglessuck@life
- if they do not get at least a 3 ; they should keep hi— kensington
- i rather resign landri and mccoy, bring in another free agent DT and Draft RD1 Michael Floyd and round 2 Corner and LB. They pay Asante 9million for another season. He is a great corner but not for 9million. If he restructured it i would understand but 9million is a lot for someone who is not a pure shut down corner. I hope he stays but if he doesnt our team will benefit other areas. Its the offense im concerned about. We have to keep the defense off the field next season. Hope we draft FLoyd at 15— Yes_General
- For all you fools who say "Put Samual's at safety!" You have to tackle or tackle alot better than Asante to play safety. Come one people the guy weighs a buck 80 tops....Safety, really??? LOL— Jbarry
- Asante may be a flyweight tackler (although he DID show improvement in that area), but he's definitely a heavyweight cover man. I didn't see anything from DRC or Asomugha that shows either of them are better than Asante. Keep him.— dlscholt
- Agreed on the Nnamdi bashers...how many corners have gone to a new team and not struggled at times in a new system? I remember when the Birds got Troy Vincent and he was bad at times his first year, and that Asante himself struggled in his first season after leaving the Pats.
It would also be nice if the DC actually used him in press coverage - which is what made him one of the top shutdown corners in the league in the first place. He played press in the first Dallas game on Dez and Miles and completely limited their production.
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