How Asante stacks up
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How Asante stacks up
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
With Asante Samuel expected to be dealt in the coming weeks, a common question being asked is: What exactly should he be worth?
Terry McCormick of TitansInsider.com reported yesterday that the Eagles were seeking a third-round pick for Samuel. But considering the top free-agent cornerbacks on the market - Cortland Finnegan and Brandon Carr - got $24M and $25.5M guaranteed, respectively, should the Birds be looking to get more?
We've been over the many issues with dealing Samuel several times in this space. He's 31, due $9.5M in 2012 and is best utilized in a specific system.
According to Football Outsiders, though, Samuel grades out as an elite player if he's put in the right role.
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders recently released the site's cornerback charting stats, and the numbers reflect a very strong season for Samuel in 2011. Among players who were targeted at least 40 times, Samuel allowed 4.4 yards per pass, third-best in the league.
Samuel's success rate - defined as the percentage of passes that don't manage to get at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third down - was 67 percent, which also ranked third.
And Samuel allowed 2.0 YAC on average, second-best. By all statistical accounts, he had a great year.
Most of you know I really appreciate the work Football Outsiders does, and I find a lot of value in the charting numbers. But in Samuel's case, I don't think the stats tell the whole story.
I went back and looked at my Man Up write-ups from last year. For the most part, Samuel did a decent job in coverage. But he also got lucky quite a bit.
In the first matchup against the Giants, Samuel got beat badly by Victor Cruz on a double move, but Eli Manning overthrew his receiver on what easily could have been a 50-yard completion.
Against the Bears, Samuel was beat by Roy Williams on what would have been a 20-yard gain, but Jay Cutler threw behind his receiver. Later, Devin Hester beat Samuel for what could have been a 45-yard gain, but Cutler underthrew him (to Samuel's credit, he recovered nicely).
Larry Fitzgerald beat Samuel with a double move, but John Skelton was off-target with his throw. And Samuel also likely had a hand in Fitzgerald's 37-yard catch late in that game, although he wasn't targeted specifically.
I have no way to prove that Samuel was luckier than other cornerbacks. And the point here is not to pick on him or poke holes in his game. For the most part, when quarterbacks threw Samuel's way last year, they didn't have a lot of success. And in 2010, the charting numbers on him were even more impressive (3.2 yards per pass, 78 percent sucess rate). But it's important to note that a couple plays going differently could have significantly changed those overall numbers.
It's also worth looking at how often cornerbacks threw at Samuel, compared to Nnamdi Asomugha. The first column below shows number of pass plays each guy was on the field for, courtesy of Pro Football Focus. The second column shows number of targets, per Football Outsiders. And the third column is the percentage of plays each guy was targeted when in coverage.
| Total Pass Plays | Total Targets | Target % |
|
| Asante Samuel | 483 | 61 | 12.6% |
| Nnamdi Asomugha | 571 | 36 | 6.3% |
Samuel's targets went from 36 in 2010 to 61 in 2011, which of course makes sense since Asomugha was on the other side instead of Dimitri Patterson. When Samuel was in coverage on passing downs, he was targeted 12.6 percent of the time. Asomugha was targeted 6.3 percent of the time.
Opposing quarterbacks had success when they threw at Asomugha, averaging 9.0 yards per pass, the worst mark of any Eagles cornerback, but they still stayed away from him quite a bit. In Asomugha's final year with the Raiders, he was targeted 7.0 percent of the time he was in coverage. Quarterbacks actually threw at him less in 2011. While he clearly did not meet expectations last season, Asomugha still deserves some credit for the job he did when quarterbacks didn't throw at him.
In run support, none of the Eagles cornerbacks gave them much. And overall, Joselio Hanson was the only one who proved to be a consistent tackler. Samuel has never been a physical player, although he had his moments last season (specifically in that Dolphins game).
As for where he'll end up, Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean reports that the Titans' interest is lukewarm at best and adds that there's no way the team would give up a conditional third-round pick for him. The Lions have no interest, according to Mike O'Hara of FoxSports.com We'll find out what the league thinks of Samuel's value in the coming weeks.
I also posted on a report that the Eagles will host Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins.
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Hes already said hes willing to restructure.so why arent they doing that to make him more valuable? Asante @7million is worth a second rd pick.— Sean s.- I sure wish you had nifty chart like that depicting Andy Reid's pathetic record against playoff-bound teams, or playoff game wins in which the Eagles were favored, or the number of injured players acquired (on the cheap), or the steady decline of this team.
- Sick of NA bashers.. the guy was thrown into a new team, with a shortened training camp, and not used correctly. Eagles are 100% making the correct move in dumping Asante, both in the lockeroom and on the field. How do the football outsiders account for zones? Pittsburgh Steelers fans would not support Ike Taylor as an "elite" CB.— FABER
- When I posted that Reid has always set up his QBs for failure, many thought it impossible. After last year's debacle, however, perhaps some can now see that the wrong scheme, play-calling, etc., can turn a pro-bowler into an "overnight" has been.
When the Eagles' defense was pounding Tom Brady early in the game this past season, Belichik went on a 13 play drive, with 11 called runs, thereby slowing the pass rush and enabling Brady to succeed.
Now, what would Reid have done in the same situation? He would continue to call deep pass patterns, hoping his QB would either connect or make a play with his feet. Of course, the outcome is his QB gets the snot knocked out of him 10 times or more, becomes frantic and begins to bail on plays, which carries over into the next game and the next. In the process, a good QB is ruined. - @Faber have any more excuses you wanna make for the guy? Was the sky not blue enough on certain days?? He was "not used correctly" maybe the first handful of games. For the most part though, he was used in press coverage where he excels (you can look at plenty of film on a given play and see Asante off the ball on one side, and Nnamdi pressing on the other). The fact is he just got beat more than he did in Oakland. Plain and simple. Take the two TDs Victor Cruz torched him for. Are you really going to blame scheme?? The guy was in position but just got beat. Badly. Twice. In any case, when you're signed to mega-dollars and touted as the best cover corner in the game, shouldn't you be able to, oh I don't know, cover the guy in front of your face?! He also missed some tackles badly. With his ability, he needs to play at a much much higher level however he is used
- Asante gets a bad rap in Philly. He's a big play guy who doesn't tackle well/play physical. Still has a ton of INT's, still breaks up passes. I'd say he had a more consistent year than Namdi last year.
So let's not hate on him, it's not as if he was a bad player here. He just costs too much and we have a younger guy who (may) fit our system better in DRC.
Time will tell, but let's not get down on the guy. He was a good player for the birds.— mundiff - I agree. If he gets traded I bet we are going to be wishing he wasn't by the end of the season. — bc3030
- Sheil,
Perhaps some of those underthrows or overthrows that you mention are due to the nervousness of the QB as well, knowing that Asante can read and jump on a route better than anyone. He doesn't hit well, and he can live or die going for the INT, but unless we get a productive player with a 3rd pick, which seems to be the possible trade, I think it's better to keep him and figure out how to have he, DRC, and Asomough all contribute.— Mayanman - Put him at Safety— Ace-Philadelphia
- Do not understand why Eagles would give up on their best defensive back. NA stinks, he did not even look like a player last years. As Sheil points out, AS was back DB last year for Eagles and has been since Dawk left.— Fla Ben
- Once again, I must point out that DRC SUCKS! Yes, he is younger, but he's at a relatively low number against the cap this year. I say keep 'em both, especially if you think it's realistic to include the Birds in a group of 7 or 8 teams capable of winning the SB this year. Because we will NOT get a sniff of the SB with NA and DRC. Not a chance.— 5NOT4
Comment removed.- Comment removed.
- Wishbone - Asante is 4th in the NFL in INTs since 1999; he has 45. He is first in the NFL in INTs since he entered the league. Furthermore, you may want to do some research on how turnovers impact, ya know, winning in the NFL. Once you obtain a clue, come back to the adult table, and we'll be glad to teach you more about the game. Thanks.— 5NOT4
- If Samuel is willing to re-structure his deal, I think he's worth keeping. Heck, play him at free safety! That way he still gets to play off receivers and read the QB's eyes instead of the dreaded press man coverage. Sure, you'd suffer a little bit in run support but it's worth a try.— MrMiles1
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